Kieron Walton's having a monster season. He's got a little Tage Thompson in him.
I asked Elon's AI how it would expect Walton to do if he was magically dropped in Tage's D+1 situation next year. Disclaimer: not scientific, just for fun!
With Walton’s updated 1.51 PPG in the OHL, his 2025-26 NCAA production in Thompson’s UConn setup would likely be 37-39 points (16-17 goals, 21-22 assists) in 34 games, or 1.09-1.15 PPG. This is a notch below the earlier 40-42 estimate (17-18 goals, 23-24 assists), reflecting his cooled 1.51 vs. 1.77 pace. He’d still top Thompson’s 32 points (19 goals, 13 assists), driven by better playmaking (21-22 assists vs. 13), though goals dip closer to Thompson’s 19 as the NCAA limits chances. Variables like linemate quality or a hot streak could nudge him to 40, but 38 feels like the sweet spot—strong, not spectacular, fitting his revised trajectory.
Some background on Thompson as he progressed.
D+5 (2020-21, NHL):
At 23, fully in Buffalo, he played 38 games amid a COVID-shortened season, tallying 14 points (4 goals, 10 assists, 0.37 PPG). Ice time crept up (13:40 ATOI), and assists outpaced goals, hinting at a broader game. Still, no dramatic shift—just steady NHL footing.
D+6 (2021-22, NHL):
Here’s the turning point. At 24, Thompson exploded for 68 points (38 goals, 30 assists) in 78 games (0.87 PPG). Shifted to center, bulked to 220 pounds, and given top-six minutes (17:24 ATOI), he unleashed his shot and size. His 38 goals tied for 10th in the NHL—a true breakout, five years post-D+1. But it built on prior hints: AHL growth, NHL reps, and Buffalo’s patience.
D+7 (2022-23, NHL):
The ascent continued—47 goals, 47 assists, 94 points in 82 games (1.15 PPG) at 25. Now a star, he cemented his trajectory, but this flowed from 2021-22’s foundation.
Jump or Slow Build?
No single post-D+1 season screams “significant jump” until D+6 (2021-22). His NCAA-to-AHL transition (D+2) was modest (0.97 to 0.60 PPG), early NHL years (D+3, D+4) were rocky (0.18-0.38 PPG), and even his AHL peak (0.85 PPG) wasn’t a rocket launch.
The data shows gradual climbs:
NCAA: 0.94 to 0.97 PPG.
AHL: 0.60 to 0.85 PPG.
NHL: 0.18 to 0.37 to 0.87 PPG.
The 2021-22 leap (0.37 to 0.87 PPG, +34 goals) altered his trajectory, but it wasn’t sudden—it rested on years of slow skill accretion, physical maturation, and opportunity (trade, position switch, ice time). St. Louis saw a project; Buffalo unlocked it.