I don’t know about plays physical often, but I do remember him getting suspended in Sweden for hitting a guy into next Tuesday.
Prospect Info: Jets Prospects
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voyageur
Grizzled vet
- Jul 10, 2011
- 11,399
- 11,910
He's also coming back from what looked to be shoulder injury, from taking AHL hits. There's a physical maturity that may be needed to absorb NHL hits.
Bender Duster
it was like that when I got here
I dunno. Shoulder injuries can happen at any level and I doubt the contact is any lighter in the AHL.
I'd think he'd definitely be in the mix as a black ace in a PO run. And whilst he isn't an overtly physical player in my viewings, he has size and a grumpy streak and is absolutely capable of a heavy check a la JMo on occasion. Like JMo or peak Pionk, think his combo of mobility, positioning and IQ means he's not easy to play against, even as his strength and pro experience develop.
Jets prospects' current NHLe and rank (not a comprehensive rank against every NHL prospect ever, but vs. recent Jets prospects and young players, and a selection of older Jets in their respective D+n years):
D+1:
Walton 0.225 (11th - behind Connor, Vesalainen, Chibrikov, Perfetti, Kupari, Little, Ehlers, Vilardi, Petan, Yager)
He 0.184 (15)
Loponen 0.100 (37)
Freij 0.092 (38)
D+2:
Yager 0.200 (13 - behind Ehlers, Heinola, Perfetti, Lambert, Little, Vesalainen, Connor, McGroarty, Scheifele, Petan, Lucius, Niku, Salomonsson)
Barlow 0.144 (21)
Levis 0.122 (29)
Nehring 0.113 (32)
D+3:
Salomonsson 0.233 (17 - too many to list, only D ahead are in D+3 NHLe are Niku and Heinola)
(McGroarty 0.204 (21))
Lambert 0.183 (23)
Julien 0.104 (32)
Wagner 0.039 (38)
Zhilkin 0.033 (40)
Brown 0.008 (41)
D+4:
Chibrikov 0.294 (13 - Connor, Ehlers, Little, Rashevsky, Scheif, Perfetti, Nieds, Vilardi, Barron, Names, Apples, Lowry)
Lucius 0.146 (26)
(Kuzmin 0.081 (32))
D+5:
Perfetti 0.600 (3 - Connor, Scheif)
Phillips 0.111 (25)
Bauer 0.024 (29)
D+6:
Rashevsky 0.450 (8 - Scheif, Connor, Ehlers, Vilardi, Little, Nieds, Morrissey)
Lundmark 0.097 (23)
Heinola 0.063 (24)
D+1:
Walton 0.225 (11th - behind Connor, Vesalainen, Chibrikov, Perfetti, Kupari, Little, Ehlers, Vilardi, Petan, Yager)
He 0.184 (15)
Loponen 0.100 (37)
Freij 0.092 (38)
D+2:
Yager 0.200 (13 - behind Ehlers, Heinola, Perfetti, Lambert, Little, Vesalainen, Connor, McGroarty, Scheifele, Petan, Lucius, Niku, Salomonsson)
Barlow 0.144 (21)
Levis 0.122 (29)
Nehring 0.113 (32)
D+3:
Salomonsson 0.233 (17 - too many to list, only D ahead are in D+3 NHLe are Niku and Heinola)
(McGroarty 0.204 (21))
Lambert 0.183 (23)
Julien 0.104 (32)
Wagner 0.039 (38)
Zhilkin 0.033 (40)
Brown 0.008 (41)
D+4:
Chibrikov 0.294 (13 - Connor, Ehlers, Little, Rashevsky, Scheif, Perfetti, Nieds, Vilardi, Barron, Names, Apples, Lowry)
Lucius 0.146 (26)
(Kuzmin 0.081 (32))
D+5:
Perfetti 0.600 (3 - Connor, Scheif)
Phillips 0.111 (25)
Bauer 0.024 (29)
D+6:
Rashevsky 0.450 (8 - Scheif, Connor, Ehlers, Vilardi, Little, Nieds, Morrissey)
Lundmark 0.097 (23)
Heinola 0.063 (24)
Doesn't look like we will get the same scoring from our d plus 1 - d plus 4 prospects as we got from 2011-2015 crop.
I think we are banking more on high end two-way play from our top two prospects in Yager and Salomonsson to be fair.
Guys like Lambert/Lucious/Barlow/Chibrikov aren't tracking as high end top 6 offensive players and that is a bit concerning to me as that is three 1st round picks and a second rounder. I wonder if we see some of them packaged for now pieces with term.
Thankfully Cole is performing and trending well in the NHL, but we are going to need some of the other forward prospects to grow into good NHL players to offset the eventual declines to 2011-2015 crop.
This year's awful Moose team is messing up a lot of prospects' NHLe numbers...
Mud Turtle
Registered User
- Jul 26, 2013
- 8,728
- 20,656
Walton is decent for D+1, but sounds like he might be skipping back. Kevin He is alright too... hopefully he comes back from suspension with an axe to grind.
Salomonsson is good for a defenseman, proving he can score in the A. The Moose factor is a drag on those prospects playing there this year.
Would've been nice to get a full season of Chibrikov (on a decent team).
Perfetti is the only older guy, but he's a solid NHLer with more upside to come.
Thanks for crunching the numbers (and contextualizing them).
Quick question -- if we view this season's Moose team as, for example, a black hole of scoring talent compounded by a D-corps *apart from Salmo* bereft of puck movers in transition and in support on attack, made still worse by a dearth of veteran mentors and a rotating cast of key players injured and called up, how much weight might those factors carry in ballparking prospects like a water-treading Lambert or Chibby?
How much does such a shyte team and environment impact prospect performance, given that we have samples from happier days?
I know this question has been asked before in this thread, but given that folks are including Lambo etc in trade talks, I wonder if this year is turning into something like his draft year in Liga in terms of its negative impact on development, or something to be taken in stride?
Maybe the Moose need a change of scenery.
* Not perhaps a set of questions that are easily answered, but concerns about environmental factors in development have been raised in my field for a while now, esp during and post Covid.
Teppo Numenor
Registered User
- Mar 14, 2016
- 491
- 1,035
Top six is hard to get out of the low rounds, but if you have enough middle six maybe you can make up for it with one or two lucky swings
Yeah, I was thinking that. But I'm always curious on how much of the struggles are due to the team being crap and how much is that due to the skilled players not taking a step forward to lead the team more offensively.
Huffer
Registered User
- Jul 16, 2010
- 17,093
- 7,655
I agree with the sentiments here and also wonder at the questions posed.
If Lambert and Chib were surrounded with more talent and saw even a modest uptick in their point totals this year compared to last, would we be instead super excited instead of now wondering about their scoring?
Or as Surixon is saying, is it also a big issue that those guys didn't improve enough even without additional help?
@Gm0ney, if you would indulge (because I don't know where you got the NHLe info), would you be able to provide the NHLe (and comparisons like you did), for Lambert and Chib last year? Lamberts D+2 and Chibs D+3? They seemed to put up decent points last year on a slightly better team. Would they look like much better bets to score in the NHL if we only looked at last year?
If that's the case, and after seeing both guys not look out of place in the NHL (in short sample sizes to be sure), I would personally be leaning towards looking at this years Moose numbers under a slightly discounted lens. (But nothing is guaranteed obviously).
I'm tracking manually using these NHLe's: NHL Equivalency and Prospect Projection Models: Building the NHL Equivalency Model (Part 2) | Towards Data Science - you have to scroll about 3/4 of the way down to get to the numbers (unless you want to read the methodology).
As of 2023-24
D+1:
Yager 0.235 (10 - behind Connor, Vesalainen, Chibrikov, Perfetti, Kupari, Little, Ehlers, Vilardi, Petan)
Barlow 0.167 (19)
Levis 0.107 (33)
Nehring 0.046 (44)
D+2:
Lambert 0.345 (4 - behind Ehlers, Heinola, Perfetti)
(McGroarty 0.291 (8))
Salomonsson 0.201 (13)
Julien 0.168 (20)
Brown 0.097 (39)
Wagner 0.065 (42)
Zhilkin 0.062 (43)
D+3:
Lucius 0.297 (10 - behind Ehlers, Connor, Perfetti, Rashevsky, Scheif, Vilardi, Gustafsson, Little, Namestnikov)
Chibrikov 0.261 (14)
(Kuzmin 0.059 (36))
D+4:
Perfetti 0.535 (6 - behind Connor, Ehlers, Little, Rashevsky, Scheifele)
Phillips 0.185 (23)
Bauer 0.049 (33)
D+5:
Rashevsky 0.495 (5 - behind Connor, Scheif, Perfetti, Ehlers)
Heinola 0.228 (17)
Lundmark 0.099 (27)
Lambert had an impressive D+2 year. Rashevsky could be a decent player, but I don't think he'll come over to play in the AHL for a year.
I think the Moose being awful hurts the prospects more than the prospects are contributing to how awful the Moose are. It's tough to stick to any system when Kraapo can't stop a beachball. And the Moose defense outside Salomonsson is low end. There's a lack of high end prospects around to help turn the tide. Chibrikov's out, Salomonsson has been injured and is an AHL rookie, Lucius has missed so much development, Lambert can't do it alone. And our lower end prospects look to be more ECHL caliber (Lundmark, Bauer, Wagner, Zhilkin).
Teppo Numenor
Registered User
- Mar 14, 2016
- 491
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I always have had a hard time getting a read on Lambert. He wasn't very good leading up to his draft as a late bday. He had a good but not what I'd say amazing d plus 1 in WHL but it was a rebound non the less. He was great last year in his d plus 2, but has really fallen off in his d plus 3. At least early it wasn't just the team for him, I watched him a number of times and his individual game wasn't that great. He played well in the NHL but I think most kids get an adrenaline boost when they first get their opportunity.
He's really the one prospect for me that I can't get a good read oh what he will be for us. I think he could be anything from a bust to a good 2C and I have no idea where he'll land on that spectrom.
Huffer
Registered User
- Jul 16, 2010
- 17,093
- 7,655
Thanks @Gm0ney.
I think looking back a year for Lambert really shows (to me anyway), to not get too focused on this current year in a vacuum. I don't think a guy goes from having the 4th best D+2 (by NHLe) of all Jets prospects to 23rd in his D+3 without some sort of question as to why.
Although it is interesting to note that Chibs remained in a near similar position (NHLe wise) from last year to this year on the same bad Moose team. Not sure how to reconcile that one TBH.
I think you just want to see steady improvement from your prospects from year to year - no plateauing, and we definitely don't want to see backsliding. A single bad year in an otherwise increasing trend isn't a big deal, but Lambert's been up-and-down a lot.
Chibrikov gets a bump from his 3 points in 4 NHL games this year. His AHL NHLe alone is 0.233 (AHL/NHL combined it's 0.294), which would be a slight drop from last season (his AHL NHLe alone last year was 0.259). It seems reasonable to explain a difference of -0.026 (down 10%) from the Moose-are-Garbage effect. Lambert's AHL NHLe this year to last is -0.123 (down 37%), which seems a bit more difficult to explain as just being on a bad team. But I suppose there's a range and different styles will be impacted differently (Chibrikov seems to have a motor and peskiness that would help him on a bad team, vs a Lambert who relies more on pure skill...but I'm just theorizing).
voyageur
Grizzled vet
- Jul 10, 2011
- 11,399
- 11,910
I think Lambert and Chibrikov don't mesh. They did well to bring each other down. It would be interesting to see how Parker Ford sparks lines. He had Lucius going and seems to work with Lambert at the A level.
Hard to say any AHL vet has a positive impact, maybe AJF, maybe Toninato. The absence of a net driver like Malott probably has had an impact on smaller guys play.
I'd like to know why Zhilkin is stuck in the mud. Saw some good skating in the Young Stars.
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