Prospect Info: Jets Prospects

[Boonk]

I was always very high on Ritchie and thought the Jets would pick him.

Agreed, both Ritchie and Perrault were still just sitting there for us on the board and I was itching for the pick to be made..

 

[AtomicJets]

With Salo progressing nicely and Pionk putting up crazy points in a contract year, meaning we probably don't want to extend him on the big money he'll command, it seems like there is an obvious path for Salo into the lineup next year. Future Samberg-Salomonsson 2nd pairing?

 

[Huffer]

With Salo progressing nicely and Pionk putting up crazy points in a contract year, meaning we probably don't want to extend him on the big money he'll command, it seems like there is an obvious path for Salo into the lineup next year. Future Samberg-Salomonsson 2nd pairing?

I'm definitely scared of a big contract for Pionk. He's been great this year, but this year could also be an outlier when compared to some previous seasons as well.
That being said, even if they extended Pionk, I think Salo would start on the 3rd pair anyway. It's likely a better place to get a young player started in the NHL IMO.
And then if he starts to earn more, you can always experiment moving any of Salo, Pionk, and Demelo around too.

 

[Whileee]

I'm definitely scared of a big contract for Pionk. He's been great this year, but this year could also be an outlier when compared to some previous seasons as well.
That being said, even if they extended Pionk, I think Salo would start on the 3rd pair anyway. It's likely a better place to get a young player started in the NHL IMO.
And then if he starts to earn more, you can always experiment moving any of Salo, Pionk, and Demelo around too.

Pionk's contract is going to be one of Chevy's most challenging decision going forward. I think his teammates and coaches really appreciate him and they would like to keep him, but his performance might be putting him into a contract category that would be unwise to chase. Chevy is traditionally pretty cautious in negotiations, and the only "overpays" have tended to be for "legacy" contracts for well-respected vets like Wheeler, Scheifele and Hellebuyck (overpay in term, not AAV). If Pionk maintains this level of play, it will be hard to extend him for less than $30-35M (total contract value). That might be too rich for Chevy.

Interestingly, the Jets just extended DeMelo at 4 x 4.9M. He's a year older than Pionk will be, and has been considered the Jets #1RD. I wonder if the Jets will try to give Pionk something similar, but with an extra year (i.e. around 5x5M). D get paid for points, so that might juice Pionk's market value. I just don't think Chevy will overpay by much for Pionk, and maybe Pionk will see this as the best place for him and agree to less than he might get on the open market.

 

[Huffer]

Pionk's contract is going to be one of Chevy's most challenging decision going forward. I think his teammates and coaches really appreciate him and they would like to keep him, but his performance might be putting him into a contract category that would be unwise to chase. Chevy is traditionally pretty cautious in negotiations, and the only "overpays" have tended to be for "legacy" contracts for well-respected vets like Wheeler, Scheifele and Hellebuyck (overpay in term, not AAV). If Pionk maintains this level of play, it will be hard to extend him for less than $30-35M (total contract value). That might be too rich for Chevy.

Interestingly, the Jets just extended DeMelo at 4 x 4.9M. He's a year older than Pionk will be, and has been considered the Jets #1RD. I wonder if the Jets will try to give Pionk something similar, but with an extra year (i.e. around 5x5M). D get paid for points, so that might juice Pionk's market value. I just don't think Chevy will overpay by much for Pionk, and maybe Pionk will see this as the best place for him and agree to less than he might get on the open market.

Agree with everything you said, but with Pionk currently at 5.875 and I think like you say with counting stats (and the cap going up) I think he's going to looking for a raise IMO.

Tough decision for Chevy for sure.

 

[Bob E]

Agree with everything you said, but with Pionk currently at 5.875 and I think like you say with counting stats (and the cap going up) I think he's going to looking for a raise IMO.

Tough decision for Chevy for sure.

I would think Pionk will look for a nice raise if he keeps up his current level of play and gets to 50+ points. In FA he would be looking at $7+M aav, and there’s little chance he signs for less than Morrissey at that point.

To me, Chevy can’t sign Pionk to a long term deal at around $7M especially with Salomonsson waiting in the wings. So if Pionk is only willing to sign a market deal, which is the impression I get, then do they move him and when? I can see them having Pionk as an own rental, have him falter a bit in playoffs (due to lack of size and speed) and then he signs somewhere for $ Chevy just can’t bring himself to pay.

 

[Buffdog]

Where wpuld everyone be happy with a Pionk contract. 5x6.5M?

IF (and that's a huge IF) he can keep up his play from this season, I'd maybe be OK with that.

On the other hand, I can see Salo slotting into the 2md pair like Samberg has - I'm not sure how close he is to being able to do that though. The timing is off by maybe a year or two... unless the org sees he's ready to start learning on the fly and they bring him up and shelter him on the 3rd pairing for half of this season like they did with Samberg

 

[Whileee]

I would think Pionk will look for a nice raise if he keeps up his current level of play and gets to 50+ points. In FA he would be looking at $7+M aav, and there’s little chance he signs for less than Morrissey at that point.

To me, Chevy can’t sign Pionk to a long term deal at around $7M especially with Salomonsson waiting in the wings. So if Pionk is only willing to sign a market deal, which is the impression I get, then do they move him and when? I can see them having Pionk as an own rental, have him falter a bit in playoffs (due to lack of size and speed) and then he signs somewhere for $ Chevy just can’t bring himself to pay.

I'm not sure that Pionk will command such a high price on the open market, despite the production this year. He's still a relatively small D with a bit of an uneven performance history.

I wonder how he would get more than Pesce (6 x 5.5M) or Matt Roy (6 x 5.75M). Gostisbehere only got 3.2M AAV, and he had 56 points last season.

My guess is that Pionk would consider a bit of a "hometown" discount with the Jets, and Chevy might go one year longer than he's comfortable. Maybe something in the 6 x 5.5M range. With the cap rising fast, in a couple of years that would be equivalent to around 4.75M as a cap percentage last year.

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

Where wpuld everyone be happy with a Pionk contract.

In Las Vegas.

 

[10Ducky10]

6 x 5m and that's too much.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Pionk's contract is going to be one of Chevy's most challenging decision going forward. I think his teammates and coaches really appreciate him and they would like to keep him, but his performance might be putting him into a contract category that would be unwise to chase. Chevy is traditionally pretty cautious in negotiations, and the only "overpays" have tended to be for "legacy" contracts for well-respected vets like Wheeler, Scheifele and Hellebuyck (overpay in term, not AAV). If Pionk maintains this level of play, it will be hard to extend him for less than $30-35M (total contract value). That might be too rich for Chevy.

Interestingly, the Jets just extended DeMelo at 4 x 4.9M. He's a year older than Pionk will be, and has been considered the Jets #1RD. I wonder if the Jets will try to give Pionk something similar, but with an extra year (i.e. around 5x5M). D get paid for points, so that might juice Pionk's market value. I just don't think Chevy will overpay by much for Pionk, and maybe Pionk will see this as the best place for him and agree to less than he might get on the open market.

You are projecting Pionk's scoring to continue and then him signing for a substantial cut in pay?

If he puts up close to a ppg he will get at least 5x7. Maybe more, maybe another year. His current contract was 7.21% of cap when it was signed. The same % next year, assuming a cap of 92 mil, would be 6.633 AAV. I think that would be a starting point for negotiations.

I'm not confident enough of him continuing to play like that to want to see that contract signed here.

 

[voyageur]

You are projecting Pionk's scoring to continue and then him signing for a substantial cut in pay?

If he puts up close to a ppg he will get at least 5x7. Maybe more, maybe another year. His current contract was 7.21% of cap when it was signed. The same % next year, assuming a cap of 92 mil, would be 6.633 AAV. I think that would be a starting point for negotiations.

I'm not confident enough of him continuing to play like that to want to see that contract signed here.

It's a wait and see year for him like everyone else. Pionk has to prove himself in playoffs I think to get rewarded.

The thing about it to me is Samberg is seen as part of the family but outsiders don't see Pionk that way. There's always performance to consider but the Jets try to build chemistry in their defense over time. You can name at least 3 pairings that lasted 3 years here, or longer.

I think there's always an optimism with our prospects to hit top 4 status sooner than later. Salomonsson, Heinola, Niku and they generally have to prove themselves. Scott Arniel you know already has a lot of confidence in Salomonsson so that bodes well.

I think the Jets lack a true shutdown pair if Pionk is on it. I don't see Miller as the guy but Samberg and De Melo could be good in that role, conceivably. All depends on how Melo would play the puck.

If Salomonsson becomes the top pairing d-man I could see the Jets using Melo as a more shutdown guy behind Lowry.

 

[Whileee]

You are projecting Pionk's scoring to continue and then him signing for a substantial cut in pay?

If he puts up close to a ppg he will get at least 5x7. Maybe more, maybe another year. His current contract was 7.21% of cap when it was signed. The same % next year, assuming a cap of 92 mil, would be 6.633 AAV. I think that would be a starting point for negotiations.

I'm not confident enough of him continuing to play like that to want to see that contract signed here.

A. He's not going to continue at a PPG pace. I'd be surprised if he tops 60 by the end of the season.
B. Points do drive D salaries, but it's a bit more complicated. Gostisbehere had more points than Heiskanen, Weegar, Carlson etc. last season and didn't clear 3.5M in his contract this season. Pionk isn't a top-pair D with the Jets, and that will factor into his next contract.
C. The cap will likely rise to around 96M in the next 2-3 years. But I think he's been overpaid on his current contract, and I'm not sure that his earning potential has grown now that he's heading into his 30s. Jets have DeMelo, Miller and Salomonsson on the right side, and I think Chevy won't be twisted into overpaying Pionk at an AAV, especially if he gives him a bit longer term. My guess is that Chevy and the Jets see Salomonsson as a future 1-2RD, which will affect how they value Pionk.

But this will be a fascinating negotiation and decision for Chevy. He's been burnt a few times with contracts that he's had to buy out, and I doubt he'll want another strong buy-out candidate.

 

[voyageur]

A. He's not going to continue at a PPG pace. I'd be surprised if he tops 60 by the end of the season.
B. Points do drive D salaries, but it's a bit more complicated. Gostisbehere had more points than Heiskanen, Weegar, Carlson etc. last season and didn't clear 3.5M in his contract this season. Pionk isn't a top-pair D with the Jets, and that will factor into his next contract.
C. The cap will likely rise to around 96M in the next 2-3 years. But I think he's been overpaid on his current contract, and I'm not sure that his earning potential has grown now that he's heading into his 30s. Jets have DeMelo, Miller and Salomonsson on the right side, and I think Chevy won't be twisted into overpaying Pionk at an AAV, especially if he gives him a bit longer term. My guess is that Chevy and the Jets see Salomonsson as a future 1-2RD, which will affect how they value Pionk.

But this will be a fascinating negotiation and decision for Chevy. He's been burnt a few times with contracts that he's had to buy out, and I doubt he'll want another strong buy-out candidate.

There's so many moving parts you can't just summarize it like that. Miller's signed for one more year. Hard to say when the last time he was called upon to play 20 minutes a night. Long time ago. The next guy on the depth chart after Salomonsson is Lundmark or Coghlan. So is that enough depth without Pionk. I don't think so. If Pionk went at the very least I'd hope the Jets bring in some RD depth like a Justin Barron.

Then there is Samberg. That's a big contract for Chevy...does he re-sign long term if the team lets Pionk go? Does he believe that the team would be better without him?

The Jets are going into their most interesting free agency period in their history. And you have the futures of Connor and Lowry pending too. Could be a lot of changes. Or more of the same.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

It's a wait and see year for him like everyone else. Pionk has to prove himself in playoffs I think to get rewarded.

The thing about it to me is Samberg is seen as part of the family but outsiders don't see Pionk that way. There's always performance to consider but the Jets try to build chemistry in their defense over time. You can name at least 3 pairings that lasted 3 years here, or longer.

I think there's always an optimism with our prospects to hit top 4 status sooner than later. Salomonsson, Heinola, Niku and they generally have to prove themselves. Scott Arniel you know already has a lot of confidence in Salomonsson so that bodes well.

I think the Jets lack a true shutdown pair if Pionk is on it. I don't see Miller as the guy but Samberg and De Melo could be good in that role, conceivably. All depends on how Melo would play the puck.

If Salomonsson becomes the top pairing d-man I could see the Jets using Melo as a more shutdown guy behind Lowry.

Of course Pionk's contract depends on the rest of this season. He has played well in the PO in the past. Not last year, but others.

Personally, I can't imagine being happy with any contract he would agree to. His performance this year just has too much of that contract year appearance for me to be comfortable. This is at least 2 contract years in a row with him performing much better than other years.

I think I recall having seen some speculation about him having been playing with a lingering injury. If he is now healthy for the first time in 2-3 years that could also explain his performance. IF that is the case I would be a little more comfortable extending him. Still not for too long or too much though.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

A. He's not going to continue at a PPG pace. I'd be surprised if he tops 60 by the end of the season.
B. Points do drive D salaries, but it's a bit more complicated. Gostisbehere had more points than Heiskanen, Weegar, Carlson etc. last season and didn't clear 3.5M in his contract this season. Pionk isn't a top-pair D with the Jets, and that will factor into his next contract.
C. The cap will likely rise to around 96M in the next 2-3 years. But I think he's been overpaid on his current contract, and I'm not sure that his earning potential has grown now that he's heading into his 30s. Jets have DeMelo, Miller and Salomonsson on the right side, and I think Chevy won't be twisted into overpaying Pionk at an AAV, especially if he gives him a bit longer term. My guess is that Chevy and the Jets see Salomonsson as a future 1-2RD, which will affect how they value Pionk.

But this will be a fascinating negotiation and decision for Chevy. He's been burnt a few times with contracts that he's had to buy out, and I doubt he'll want another strong buy-out candidate.

My post was predicated on the condition that he continues at ~ the same scoring pace as he has so far. The post of yours that I replied to seemed to be making a similar assumption.

Even if his scoring pace drifts back to closer to his normal he might end up with 50-60 pts and his defensive play has been better than usual this year too. I think he would expect at least a similar cap % as he had last time, so 6.5+ mil. I can't see him taking less than 5 years.

Ghost had never had an AAV higher than 4.5 mil before and was already a year older than Pionk will be when his next contract kicks in. He had a reputation for weak defensive play. Much more so than Pionk. He has usually scored a little more than Pionk but I think the bad D rep has hurt his earnings. He has been traded, along with picks to sweeten the deal, for future considerations, traded for a 3rd several years down the road, and allowed to go to FA twice. I don't think he is a good comp to Pionk, despite the scoring.

Having DeMelo, Miller and Salomonsson on the right side, Chevy may not want to offer Pionk enough to get him to extend here. If so, I'm OK with that.

We would need to find a 3RHD pretty soon because Miller probably doesn't have long left. 3rd pair D aren't too hard to come by, even RHD.

 

[Whileee]

There's so many moving parts you can't just summarize it like that. Miller's signed for one more year. Hard to say when the last time he was called upon to play 20 minutes a night. Long time ago. The next guy on the depth chart after Salomonsson is Lundmark or Coghlan. So is that enough depth without Pionk. I don't think so. If Pionk went at the very least I'd hope the Jets bring in some RD depth like a Justin Barron.

Then there is Samberg. That's a big contract for Chevy...does he re-sign long term if the team lets Pionk go? Does he believe that the team would be better without him?

The Jets are going into their most interesting free agency period in their history. And you have the futures of Connor and Lowry pending too. Could be a lot of changes. Or more of the same.

I didn't think I simplified the situation. I think it's complex.

If the Jets think Salomonsson is a future top 4 RHD then they won't be as desperate to give a big contract to Pionk. Either he or DeMelo would have to move down to the 3rd pair, and there's little chance the Jets would want to pay a big contract to a 3rd pair D. They seem more likely to look to the trade market to fill that role.

 

[Whileee]

My post was predicated on the condition that he continues at ~ the same scoring pace as he has so far. The post of yours that I replied to seemed to be making a similar assumption.

Even if his scoring pace drifts back to closer to his normal he might end up with 50-60 pts and his defensive play has been better than usual this year too. I think he would expect at least a similar cap % as he had last time, so 6.5+ mil. I can't see him taking less than 5 years.

Ghost had never had an AAV higher than 4.5 mil before and was already a year older than Pionk will be when his next contract kicks in. He had a reputation for weak defensive play. Much more so than Pionk. He has usually scored a little more than Pionk but I think the bad D rep has hurt his earnings. He has been traded, along with picks to sweeten the deal, for future considerations, traded for a 3rd several years down the road, and allowed to go to FA twice. I don't think he is a good comp to Pionk, despite the scoring.

Having DeMelo, Miller and Salomonsson on the right side, Chevy may not want to offer Pionk enough to get him to extend here. If so, I'm OK with that.

We would need to find a 3RHD pretty soon because Miller probably doesn't have long left. 3rd pair D aren't too hard to come by, even RHD.

Pionk at 6.5M+ for several years would infer that the Jets think he's a better bet than DeMelo and Salomonsson for a top-4 RD role. That might be the case, especially if DeMelo doesn't turn his game around this season.

Pionk's strong play this season has certainly increased his bargaining power, and it will be interesting to see if Chevy truly sees him as a long-term top 4 core D.

 

[surixon]

Pionk at 6.5M+ for several years would infer that the Jets think he's a better bet than DeMelo and Salomonsson for a top-4 RD role. That might be the case, especially if DeMelo doesn't turn his game around this season.

Pionk's strong play this season has certainly increased his bargaining power, and it will be interesting to see if Chevy truly sees him as a long-term top 4 core D.

Pionk is only one of many difficult decisions for Chevy. He's going to have to pick and choose which aging players he's comfortable keeping. He can't handcuff himself by keeping everyone through their decline years.

He already has Helle and Scheif at long big money legacy contracts. He has DeMelo at a mid value mid term deal. Players like Fly and KC will want legacy deals to stay and all of Name, Apples, and Pionk will want at least mid value mid term deals to stay. That isn't factoring that you know the team will give Lowry a pretty sizable raise with decent term in a year when he's 33.

The law of averages would indicate atleast a few of these players will age really poorly. Can we really afford to cap and roster strap ourselves with an aging team.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Pionk at 6.5M+ for several years would infer that the Jets think he's a better bet than DeMelo and Salomonsson for a top-4 RD role. That might be the case, especially if DeMelo doesn't turn his game around this season.

Pionk's strong play this season has certainly increased his bargaining power, and it will be interesting to see if Chevy truly sees him as a long-term top 4 core D.

Yes
Interesting is right. I am concerned that this might be Chevy's first genuinely bad contract. In spite of Pionk's strong play so far this season.

For that matter, I suppose DeMelo's could be that. He hasn't been all that good this year and we have him for 3 more years. I'm pretty sure he will pick it up. The last year or 2 of that contract could be bad though.

 

[FlappyGiraffe]

Yes
Interesting is right. I am concerned that this might be Chevy's first genuinely bad contract. In spite of Pionk's strong play so far this season.

For that matter, I suppose DeMelo's could be that. He hasn't been all that good this year and we have him for 3 more years. I'm pretty sure he will pick it up. The last year or 2 of that contract could be bad though.

Should be fine to run DeMelo as a third pair guy if Salo continues on his trajectory, he'll be on an ELC until the DeMelo deal ends

 

[Duke749]

I think I’m lost. Where’s the prospects thread??

Pionk is only one of many difficult decisions for Chevy. He's going to have to pick and choose which aging players he's comfortable keeping. He can't handcuff himself by keeping everyone through their decline years.

He already has Helle and Scheif at long big money legacy contracts. He has DeMelo at a mid value mid term deal. Players like Fly and KC will want legacy deals to stay and all of Name, Apples, and Pionk will want at least mid value mid term deals to stay. That isn't factoring that you know the team will give Lowry a pretty sizable raise with decent term in a year when he's 33.

The law of averages would indicate atleast a few of these players will age really poorly. Can we really afford to cap and roster strap ourselves with an aging team.

Yeh we’re entering a point where we’re gonna have to let good players go and hope some youngsters can fill the void. Good news is some guys are progressing nicely.