So, you think the Kraken will take Niku and a 3rd instead of a legit player? Moving up in the 1st round of the draft is much different than taking a guy who can’t make one of the worst D’s in the league and adding a pick with a minute chance of being an impact player in the league, imo. So, where am I wrong?
Third may or may not be the price but moving up the draft, but it's not unreasonable valuation without some merit.
Niku is percieved by some to still have enough potential and young enough that his trajectory is fixable (I'm skeptical by the degree but I think he would do better in a system that allows him to skate the puck on the 3rd pair with a DeMelo type and go PP2). And even if he's not fixed he's still good enough to provide depth in the pressbox or in the AHL. I also think teams are a bit better equiped to handle this expansion draft than the last one (no Tallon), so Seattle will have to make some more homerun attempts, take more reclimation projects, and be a bit more creative.
That's a large increase in value than Thorburn, who was literately picked simply to pick someone and they let contract expire a month later with no intentions to extend in the first place. The Thorburn pick was literally not picking someone for all purposes, which is less than Niku.
Yes, historically speaking, trading down from 13 to 24 is indeed more than a 3rd round pick worth; it's about a mid 2nd pick. The gap between a 3rd and 2nd round pick is about 3rd-4th depending on the year.
So really Niku is being evaluated as a 3rd-4th round pick tweener here in value. Might be an overvaluation, sure... but maybe not a huge amount.