Post-Game Talk: Jets go on vacation early lose 3-1

[Joe Hallenback]

Really at a loss as to how we are playing right now. We score first on a nice play and we can't manage to get another goal.

Our 2nd line looks like they are out for stroll and don't do much all game.
Lowry keeps dumping them out there when clearly there is nothing there.
We went from playing a sound positional game against the Blues to running around in our zone against Philly.
Nothing from the bottom 9. No changes to it as the game goes along.
I thought the D was fine but why sit Kovacevic half the game? He looked solid with Morrissey. They started going 5 and the D was all over the place trying to figure things out.

The Heinola play was a mistake but its a mistake where you have guys trying to make something happen and a mistake by young players. You can't get pissed and demand a young guys head for something like that. Either you play them and let them figure it out or you play your Beaulieu's.

 

[leer2006]

Yeah, I'm at the point where I don't think he deserves another coach. Maurice should never have had the chance to resign. Drafting is a positive but if we've already seen the best of the core he assembled then I don't want to see him try to fix it.

He has to have the single worst case of analysis paralysis in the league. We've called it patience in the past but at this point it shouldn't be seen as anything other than inaction. This is a f***ing cap team, how is this performance acceptable?

We can’t give Chevy all the credit for good drafting. It’s the scouts doing the real work and making the recommendations. When he’s gone our scouting department will still be here.

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

Well, Patrik Laine would have swatted that puck out of mid air into the back of the net. I'm sure Dubois was simply expecting a similar level of eye-hand coordination from a fellow Finn.

 

[barrywpg]

There's a pretty critical discussion during the Kenny & Renny show where they have Jeff Hamilton on. Jeff Hamilton outright says that he thinks there's a laissez-faire attitude on the team. Sean Reynolds has a bit of a hot take bringing up the Toronto game but Hamilton follows it up with the talk about the team making excuses that I mostly agreed with.


Also I intentionally watch later so I can watch at 1.5-2x speed, I'd recommend doing the same

Yes I also do that sometime - esp if they or IC or WST have a slow talker on

 

[Romang67]

You'd almost think his dad is the coach.

I don't think that's why Lowry plays so much, but regardless its turning into a bad look.

We need some more decent forwards. Chevy needs to move out some LHD to get them. I'd be open to trading any of our LHD for the right return.

I considered it, but a brief glance at his TOI doesn't really show any distinct increase from before the coaching change.

Again, just another reason to want a new group of coaches in the off-season. I think they still think he's 2018 Adam Lowry out there, and he just isn't. He's not as good defensively (few players are), and he's a non-factor offensively.

 

[Howard Chuck]

I went back to watch the highlights, and now I realize why people are on Heinola - they're listening to Sawyer's "expert" analysis... (I only listen to the opposing teams' commentary because Sawyer makes us all dumber when he speaks - he really has no clue...). Sawyer calls it a 'deep pinch to bat a puck out of the air' but that wasn't remotely what was going on, as some have pointed out. "Game management" is also called playing to not lose after you go up by 1 instead of playing to win...

As to the fake conspiracy about "if [insert whipping boy] were there, we would criticise". No, that's a logical fallacy that tries to bolster an argument. Sure, in hindsight it turned out to be risky, but on the Moose Heinola could do it without problem because they are actually playing as a team. He had no reason to believe that Harkins wouldn't cover, or that PLD would miss his return pass. You gotta trust your teammates.

I heard the same critiques when Buff stepped up. Sometimes he was pinching and misread a play, but it doesn't matter - Maurice himself said that the strategy was designed for that and its always the forwards responsibility to recognize it and cover.

Oh, and guess what - Wheeler was on the ice, and I'm not blaming him for this either - he's hanging out by the goalpost just standing there (after picking himself up off the ice), but it wasn't his responsibility to cover, that's on Harkins, who didn't notice Heinola stepping up at first. I can give Harkins grace for not recognizing the play at first, but he was skating in the right direction during the turnover - but stayed behind and didn't skate back, just coasted. PLD started booking it back the second that his pass bounced the wrong way and almost caught up (Heinola too, but he had to turn around), but Harkins was by far in the best position to cover and he's fast enough that if he put in PLD's effort he's there in time for the rebound.

So as far as bias goes, yes, I am giving PLD a bit of a break, because he didn't execute his backhand saucer and turned the puck over. He's also been our best player by far and actually doing positive things 95% of the game.

In the end, this play was one of many, many turning points that produced the loss. We had several good chances earlier where we just didn't score - our pp, for example, had some good chances (one where KFC shot a one timer right into the goalie's crest).

I guess my extended analysis is to counter the idea that those of us defending Heinola are just doing it because we like him. I can't speak for everyone, but for some of us, analysing plays has nothing to do with how we feel about people... It's about strategy, playing the odds (like @AlphaLackey), or noticing trends (which is why some players get criticized more, while PLD earns less ire).

In the end, though, this loss stings because it threw a big bucket of ice water on our playoff chances, and it would take a miraculous streak in February against some of the toughest teams in the league to get back in the race, so I think all of us would agree that doesn't help any of our moods (except those who already embraced the tank - those with looong-term optimism... I still think we could be a good team this year, but we're not right now).

Go Jets, and I hope everyone enjoys the break... We probably all need it!

Edit: And I look forward to a time when those of us who disagree can all enjoy a game together - I appreciate different perspectives (even if I was a bit harsh in this post about Sawyer), because even if any of us are wrong, it helps us polish up our views when it's challenged.

(and if you made it through this post without skimming, wow, I respect your tolerance...)

I made it through..... I always enjoy your analysis of the psychological/behavioural side of things!

 

[FonRiesen]

We can’t give Chevy all the credit for good drafting. It’s the scouts doing the real work and making the recommendations. When he’s gone our scouting department will still be here.

This is a good point - I do think we have some excellent scouts. I have trouble evaluating Chevy because I don't know how much his hands are tied by Chipman, and there's at least some evidence showing he's a bit too involved (the one that is brought up a lot is the press conference for extending Mau - please correct me if I'm wrong...).

There is a line between patience and waiting for the 'best' deal vs missing opportunities and being slow to adjust. We all know what side he tends to err on, I just don't know how close he is to that balance. There's a lot less data we can extrapolate from with GM activities vs coaching activities (we can see the coaching team's direct decisions on the ice, but we don't know what a GM's options are since we don't see the offers that are rejected, for example).

I think Chevy has made some good quality trades, and drafting has been acceptable. The BIG negative for me has been his constant hiring of replacement-level older D. I know Mau overtly said he convinced Chevy to get some guys like Harrison (who sucked) way back in the day, so we know there was some influence but we don't know to what level.

I don't believe he's a 'progressive' GM that's capable of taking advantage of market inefficiencies, but he's also not a guy that's constantly making mad gut decisions either.

With coaching we got to the point where we just needed change no matter what; I really think that if we fire Chevy, we need someone who hasn't been a player (again, we need someone that will be elite at projecting, managing, evaluating, etc rather than someone who is merely good at it because they've been relatively elite athletes - enough to make the NHL).

 

[leer2006]

5 minutes left in a tied game, you're looking at an average of 1.5 points. Winning in regulation makes it 2, losing in regulation makes it 0. Just based on that alone, an O-zone gamble has to 3x likelier to net you a goal as to cost you one *just to break even*. Honestly, I can be at peace with a rookie not thinking like that. It's not like his is the play that cost us the game just because his disastrous choice was the one of many to backfire.

Remember all the times I've said that we shouldn't be results oriented in close games decided by a break where we carried the majority of the inputs?

Allow me to introduce you to the opposite:

View attachment 504313
View attachment 504314 View attachment 504315

I wanted to like this but I can’t. This is ugly and disgusting. But I do thank you Alpha for posting it. Is this possibly the worst the Jet’s have performed this season using this?

 

[surixon]

This is a good point - I do think we have some excellent scouts. I have trouble evaluating Chevy because I don't know how much his hands are tied by Chipman, and there's at least some evidence showing he's a bit too involved (the one that is brought up a lot is the press conference for extending Mau - please correct me if I'm wrong...).

There is a line between patience and waiting for the 'best' deal vs missing opportunities and being slow to adjust. We all know what side he tends to err on, I just don't know how close he is to that balance. There's a lot less data we can extrapolate from with GM activities vs coaching activities (we can see the coaching team's direct decisions on the ice, but we don't know what a GM's options are since we don't see the offers that are rejected, for example).

I think Chevy has made some good quality trades, and drafting has been acceptable. The BIG negative for me has been his constant hiring of replacement-level older D. I know Mau overtly said he convinced Chevy to get some guys like Harrison (who lucked) way back in the day, so we know there was some influence but we don't know to what level.

I don't believe he's a 'progressive' GM that's capable of taking advantage of market inefficiencies, but he's also not a guy that's constantly making mad gut decisions either.

With coaching we got to the point where we just needed change no matter what; I really think that if we fire Chevy, we need someone who hasn't been a player (again, we need someone that will be elite at projecting, managing, evaluating, etc rather than someone who is merely good at it because they've been relatively elite athletes - enough to make the NHL).

I think like any good manager he puts good people into place and gives them the resources and autonomy to do their jobs. There is a big difference in the quality of our drafting before and after he took over here and many of the same scouts stayed on. While he doesn't do the scouting himself he has given them more resources and a different mandate. He should be given credit for how he's overseen that department.

As for trades, he's been much more active lately and imo he's made a number of good deals.

I think he has been on point with most of his contracts which is another underrated aspect of his job.

All in all I think he's overseen a quality hockey opps department. Clearly something has gone amiss with the NHL team this year and it will have to be addressed this offseason.

 

[LowLefty]

Yes as mentioned I didn't like the read from both players.

I am just stating I don't want Ville afraid to try things offensively and play to his strengths. He like every young talented player is going to have to learn when and when not to jump in. I'm glad he's going to be around JoMo and Pionk as both are generally really good at reading when to jump in and when to pull back.

I'm glad too - they'll need to be on their toes.

 

[WolfHouse]

Really at a loss as to how we are playing right now. We score first on a nice play and we can't manage to get another goal.

Our 2nd line looks like they are out for stroll and don't do much all game.
Lowry keeps dumping them out there when clearly there is nothing there.
We went from playing a sound positional game against the Blues to running around in our zone against Philly.
Nothing from the bottom 9. No changes to it as the game goes along.
I thought the D was fine but why sit Kovacevic half the game? He looked solid with Morrissey. They started going 5 and the D was all over the place trying to figure things out.

The Heinola play was a mistake but its a mistake where you have guys trying to make something happen and a mistake by young players. You can't get pissed and demand a young guys head for something like that. Either you play them and let them figure it out or you play your Beaulieu's.

I was really surprised to see Kova benched, thought he was playig a sound game - Lowry did changed up the third line a fair bit though

 

[Duke749]

I think like any good manager he puts good people into place and gives them the resources and autonomy to do their jobs. There is a big difference in the quality of our drafting before and after he took over here and many of the same scouts stayed on. While he doesn't do the scouting himself he has given them more resources and a different mandate. He should be given credit for how he's overseen that department.

As for trades, he's been much more active lately and imo he's made a number of good deals.

I think he has been on point with most of his contracts which is another underrated aspect of his job.

All in all I think he's overseen a quality hockey opps department. Clearly something has gone amiss with the NHL team this year and it will have to be addressed this offseason.

With regards to trading and contracts, sometimes doing less can achieve more. And why I mean by that is, he makes less mistakes overall. GMs will all eventually screw something up, but a lot of times they’re a victim of their own demise.

 

[surixon]

With regards to trading and contracts, sometimes doing less can achieve more. And why I mean by that is, he makes less mistakes overall. GMs will all eventually screw something up, but a lot of times they’re a victim of their own demise.

Agreed, the only thing I would like to see is making tougher calls on some of his aging players. A guy like Adam Lowry who plays a full out physical game will likely decline quicker so keeping him at a big deal long term and then forcing him into the 3C due to that contract may not have been wise.

I hate to say it but we are missing Roslovics offensive contributions from the bottom 6. Maybe a more modern third scoring line would have kept him happy here.

Take away him and Appelton and we are down a lot of third line depth.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Agreed, the only thing I would like to see is making tougher calls on some of his aging players. A guy like Adam Lowry who plays a full out physical game will likely decline quicker so keeping him at a big deal long term and then forcing him into the 3C due to that contract may not have been wise.

I hate to say it but we are missing Roslovics offensive contributions from the bottom 6. Maybe a more modern third scoring line would have kept him happy here.

Take away him and Appelton and we are down a lot of third line depth.

And Tanev don't forget Tanev.

 

[Duke749]

And Tanev don't forget Tanev.

I don’t think that’s an overpayment we’d be happy with at all. Not that we don’t miss his contributions.

 

[voyageur]

I don't have a lot to say about this game. Could have won. Inevitably lost. Good teams find ways to win. Fragile teams find ways to lose.

Didn't mind either of Heinola or Kovacevic's games, but I would say they played more like replacement level than starters.

I'm a little disappointed with all the roster moves that Kristian Reichel was left out during this whole slump. But I get the sense that Lowry values checking over speed, outside of his top line.

Oh well, life goes on the Beatles said. Going to be more disappointing to see good players moved out before the trade deadline, but the tank is on.

 

[FonRiesen]

I don't have a lot to say about this game. Could have won. Inevitably lost. Good teams find ways to win. Fragile teams find ways to lose.

Didn't mind either of Heinola or Kovacevic's games, but I would say they played more like replacement level than starters.

I'm a little disappointed with all the roster moves that Kristian Reichel was left out during this whole slump. But I get the sense that Lowry values checking over speed, outside of his top line.

Oh well, life goes on the Beatles said. Going to be more disappointing to see good players moved out before the trade deadline, but the tank is on.

That's probably fair to say for this particular game. I expect that our young guys will have these rough games occasionally as they adapt. At least they're both, at minimum, replacement level with upside vs below replacement level at their peak like some of our past D's... It at least feels like there's value in playing them (contributing to potential future wins)

 

[voyageur]

That's probably fair to say for this particular game. I expect that our young guys will have these rough games occasionally as they adapt. At least they're both, at minimum, replacement level with upside vs below replacement level at their peak like some of our past D's... It at least feels like there's value in playing them (contributing to potential future wins)

As a fan, that's probably where my interest lies to finish the season. To see the defense come together, where they can be above average in the NHL.

 

[voyageur]

Really at a loss as to how we are playing right now. We score first on a nice play and we can't manage to get another goal.

Our 2nd line looks like they are out for stroll and don't do much all game.
Lowry keeps dumping them out there when clearly there is nothing there.
We went from playing a sound positional game against the Blues to running around in our zone against Philly.
Nothing from the bottom 9. No changes to it as the game goes along.
I thought the D was fine but why sit Kovacevic half the game? He looked solid with Morrissey. They started going 5 and the D was all over the place trying to figure things out.

The Heinola play was a mistake but its a mistake where you have guys trying to make something happen and a mistake by young players. You can't get pissed and demand a young guys head for something like that. Either you play them and let them figure it out or you play your Beaulieu's.

There was a change in that game. In the 3rd period, Harkins took two shifts in Poganski's place. The 1st one was a turnover at the blueline, and defending from there on in. 2nd one was a good push back shift, but Harkins was in no position to defend Heinola's. I mean it happens, you get to the offensive zone, you start thinking offense.

I liked the checking line when it was Copp-Lowry-Reichel, but that was a 2 game tryout, and I think the Jets are making a concerted effort to raise Copp's trade value by playing him in so many key situations.

The tank is rolling through Winnipeg, let's just hope we don't make war with Russia.

 

[surixon]

There was a change in that game. In the 3rd period, Harkins took two shifts in Poganski's place. The 1st one was a turnover at the blueline, and defending from there on in. 2nd one was a good push back shift, but Harkins was in no position to defend Heinola's. I mean it happens, you get to the offensive zone, you start thinking offense.

I liked the checking line when it was Copp-Lowry-Reichel, but that was a 2 game tryout, and I think the Jets are making a concerted effort to raise Copp's trade value by playing him in so many key situations.

The tank is rolling through Winnipeg, let's just hope we don't make war with Russia.

Yup, I think the full on pump and dump is on for Copp.

 

[voyageur]

Yup, I think the full on pump and dump is on for Copp.

I think if Dave Lowry had cahunas he'd drop Wheeler down a line and promote Stastny. You could play Scheifele on the wing, give him some more breakaway chances or odd man rushes.

Drop Wheeler down to the checking line with Lowry, and try to push some offense out of 3 lines. Harkins is a better LW than RW.

Hell run Vesalainen-Gustafsson-Reichel as your 4th line. And let's try out some more young players for special teams.

 

[surixon]

I think if Dave Lowry had cahunas he'd drop Wheeler down a line and promote Stastny. You could play Scheifele on the wing, give him some more breakaway chances or odd man rushes.

Drop Wheeler down to the checking line with Lowry, and try to push some offense out of 3 lines. Harkins is a better LW than RW.

Hell run Vesalainen-Gustafsson-Reichel as your 4th line. And let's try out some more young players for special teams.

Yeah, you'd think they would want to pump amd dump Paul as well

 

[Jets 31]

I needed a giggle and this guy needs to get back in the lineup, what has Vaseline or any of our bottom 6 done more than him?

 

[sipowicz]

chevy has a lot of work to do.... this team is a mess

Chevy is the one responsible for the MESS, he needs to go, 11 years of mediocrity is enough!

 

[voyageur]

I needed a giggle and this guy needs to get back in the lineup, what has Vaseline or any of our bottom 6 done more than him?

That was one of the funniest mic'd up I've heard. Maybe the Jets need a little more enthusiasm out there. He was good early in the year, and probably as passable as anyone who has played the 4th line these days. I'm not sure what his falling out with Lowry was, but it happened suddenly. And the coach's doghouse looks like a permanent fixture here.