Speculation: Jets General Rumour, Trade, Free Agent and Waiver Speculation 15-16 (Part II)

[Jet]

Wins Above Replacement. It's an attempt to be a "total player value stat".

It's imperfect and flawed as you would expect with a total value statistic, but a good starting point for discussion.

Ahhh, so it's hogwash. Gotcha.

 

[ps241]

Trouba will have to take another big step to be worth that next summer. I think he'll get there, but too much is based on potential.
Let's see him come close to John Klingberg's numbers first. Dallas stole him (7 x 4.25).

Yea Dallas took a mild risk at worst going long on Klingberg early and I think it was a brilliant play given the trends we are seeing this off season.

Trouba will be interesting, some of it may come down to this season and if we keep him with the boat anchor again and also what some other GM will pay in an offer sheet? If I was Chevy I wouldn't get too cute and I would also factor in a $7 million AAV budget long term to be safe although I think Hamilton is a solid comp for now.

The larger question in play these days seems to be whether a team would rather pay a Gio type 7 x $7 or $8 for his 32 to 38 year old years or pay the same or less cash for a yet to be in his prime Jacob Trouba?

 

[Huffer]

I think the 'shorter term' rumours probably mean 5, not 3-4. Even 5x7 is too much when you consider we also have Enstrom, Myers and Trouba to pay big money to. Tarasenko's contract is a clue to what Trouba will cost next off-season. Think 8 years x $7 mil. The RHD starters alone would cost 19.5 mil out of maybe a 73 mil cap. The only way to make the numbers fit is by fantasizing about Trouba signing 8x4mil or Buff taking 4x5mil or similar unrealistic projections. Chevy could sign Trouba and Scheif to lower $$$ shorter term contracts but then the numbers will really get high for their next contracts or we will lose them altogether. Young players that are not even pending RFAs are getting the big money now.

Just when I was starting to think Buff might be affordable we get the contracts of ROR, Saad and Tarasenko. One might be a team overpaying. 2 is a trend. 3 is the new reality. We are all going to have to adjust our expectations. That applies to the return we might expect for our 30+ veterans too.

This new trend (if we can call it that, it's probably more like smart management ), of teams deciding to spend their money on the mid 20's players over the 30+ guys, along with a lot of teams being close to the cap, and the cap possibly not growing at a large rate over the next few years, has a definite impact to my expectations of a possible Buff trade (if the team was looking into it).

 

[Ace2008]

If Stepan was available...

IF D.Stepan was made available in trade...how much would it cost for the Jets to acquire him assuming draft picks/Non NHLer's aren't part of the package

?


I haven't a clue but it looks like he might be available simply due to the fact that they've got to sign Miller, Fast, Etem, etc...and those guys are about as cheap as they get for about $5million

that leaves something like 4.5-5.5 million for Stepan and after last years defeat something tells me that a top pick/prospect isn't on the new GM's radar

 

[tbcwpg]

I'd suggest that Stepan is the type of player that they will make room for, not one that they'll move to make room for others.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

This new trend (if we can call it that, it's probably more like smart management ), of teams deciding to spend their money on the mid 20's players over the 30+ guys, along with a lot of teams being close to the cap, and the cap possibly not growing at a large rate over the next few years, has a definite impact to my expectations of a possible Buff trade (if the team was looking into it).

I believe this reinforces the case for trading Buff but it also reduces the likely return. Can't afford to keep him and can't get much for him. We haven't had much leak out but there is no indication Chevy has any intention of trading him. Apparently some teams were inquiring about him at the draft but Chevy was not interested.

 

[Huffer]

I believe this reinforces the case for trading Buff but it also reduces the likely return. Can't afford to keep him and can't get much for him. We haven't had much leak out but there is no indication Chevy has any intention of trading him. Apparently some teams were inquiring about him at the draft but Chevy was not interested.

Agreed, I forgot to put in after "definite impact to my expectations of a possible Buff trade", that my expectations are a little lower on a possible return.

 

[sully1410]

Yea Dallas took a mild risk at worst going long on Klingberg early and I think it was a brilliant play given the trends we are seeing this off season.

Trouba will be interesting, some of it may come down to this season and if we keep him with the boat anchor again and also what some other GM will pay in an offer sheet? If I was Chevy I wouldn't get too cute and I would also factor in a $7 million AAV budget long term to be safe although I think Hamilton is a solid comp for now.

The larger question in play these days seems to be whether a team would rather pay a Gio type 7 x $7 or $8 for his 32 to 38 year old years or pay the same or less cash for a yet to be in his prime Jacob Trouba?

It's a terrible contract because Klingberfs production is largely unsustainable. I would prove it, but I don't have time right now.

 

[mcpw]

It's a terrible contract because Klingberfs production is largely unsustainable. I would prove it, but I don't have time right now.

If his possession numbers are sustainable, it's good enough.

 

[sully1410]

If his possession numbers are sustainable, it's good enough.

I can't remember everything I found out...but if my memory serves, his underlying numbers are not pretty...but I could just be making that up.

EDIT:
I just looked them up and they look pretty solid at first glance. I must have been thinking about someone else.

 

[mcpw]

His shooting percentages were a bit high. But then again, 4.5M for a 50+ point defenseman would be a steal.
I think it's a great contract for Dallas.

 

[Gm0ney]

Wins Above Replacement. It's an attempt to be a "total player value stat".

It's imperfect and flawed as you would expect with a total value statistic, but a good starting point for discussion.

Discussion, like, for example, the notion that O'Dell wasn't good enough to make it over 'countless plugs' like Slater, Thorburn and Peluso? I liked O'Dell's game and would've had him in there over those humps in a second. Couldn't figure out why Slater was being played at 4C when O'Dell looked better than him whenever he was given a chance. I guess we'll see how he does in Ottawa...

 

[puck stoppa]

Discussion, like, for example, the notion that O'Dell wasn't good enough to make it over 'countless plugs' like Slater, Thorburn and Peluso? I liked O'Dell's game and would've had him in there over those humps in a second. Couldn't figure out why Slater was being played at 4C when O'Dell looked better than him whenever he was given a chance. I guess we'll see how he does in Ottawa...

I am a Chevy fan and really like a lot of his moves, but who knows what management has been thinking with our 4th line since Jets 2.0 moved here. When we first started our 3rd and 4th line were both gong shows, at least now we have more depth and have 3 strong lines. But as we saw in playoffs, our top 9 ran outve gas cause they were relied upon so much. It would be great to ice a fourth line that could play at least 9-10 minutes a night, maybe next year a line of Lemieux/Kosmo Copp Lipon would do the trick, they would be a nightmare to play against, its just a matter if all would be ready defensively.
edit: And I couldnt wait to see Tangradi, Peluso and Slater gone, as I like Thor as 12 or 13, but now we're stuck with uselessluso another two years.

 

[ps241]

I am a Chevy fan and really like a lot of his moves, but who knows what management has been thinking with our 4th line since Jets 2.0 moved here. When we first started our 3rd and 4th line were both gong shows, at least now we have more depth and have 3 strong lines. But as we saw in playoffs, our top 9 ran outve gas cause they were relied upon so much. It would be great to ice a fourth line that could play at least 9-10 minutes a night, maybe next year a line of Lemieux/Kosmo Copp Lipon would do the trick, they would be a nightmare to play against, its just a matter if all would be ready defensively.
edit: And I couldnt wait to see Tangradi, Peluso and Slater gone, as I like Thor as 12 or 13, but now we're stuck with uselessluso another two years.

Yea I agree. Our team has made huge strides in most areas but we need to park 1.5 of our goons in the press box and get a functional 4th line. We limped into the playoffs last year due to style of play and lack of depth. It was really exciting to watch after the trade deadline when we could actually field a semi competitive 4th line.

We could use 10 to 12 minutes a game out of that 4th line for the season because its a marathon not a sprint. That would help late in games and would also help for wear and tear on our top players.

 

[jetdiehard]

We must improve as you see other teams improving in our division. For ex. Calgary.

 

[mcpw]

We must improve as you see other teams improving in our division. For ex. Calgary.

And Washington.

 

[Tom ServoMST3K]

And Washington.

****, the oilers look pretty good now they have that connor guy.

 

[drumzan]

****, the oilers look pretty good now they have that connor guy.

So do the Jets.

 

[Gm0ney]

We must improve as you see other teams improving in our division. For ex. Calgary.

And Washington.

****, the oilers look pretty good now they have that connor guy.

But did anyone else in our division improve?

 

[garret9]

But did anyone else in our division improve?

I like the Islanders and Lightning to make it in our division

 

[Evil Little]

But did anyone else in our division improve?

Yeah, the Avalanche got Iginla, and the Stars got Spezza.

 

[mcpw]

Yeah, the Avalanche got Iginla, and the Stars got Spezza.

Shouldn't be a problem. Toews will be UFA after next season and he will come home to the Peg.

 

[Jets 31]

****, the oilers look pretty good now they have that connor guy.

Just like any of our prospects , we don't know how good , or not good they will actually be until they start playing the games for real . Not preseason games but real ones , i'm already sick and tired hearing about Mc'god , As Crosby and even Gretzky showed , you need a damn good TEAM to be successful winning the cup .

 

[JetsFan815]

So after all the posts here about Chevy "not wanting to overpay" and "saving it for phantom resignings several years down the road", can we agree that the Stafford contract is easily the top 3 overpays of this offseason after watching how the UFA market turned out?

Seems Stempniak is gonna go for under 1.5 million. If Chevy doesn't resign him for that much when he has 1.2 mill locked up in Chris Throburn it would be absolutely criminal and make me question the organisation. The lack of action this offseason is absolutely astounding. Why wouldn't yocriminalu sign cheap depth players right now when all they cost you is money, Chevy spend a 3rd a 6th and Klingberg last season to acquire depth, even if you have full confidence that some of the younger guys are gonna make the jump it is still completely moronic to not acquire cheap depth. In the worst case if the young guys don't work out or there is a glut of injuries you have insurance, in the best case where Armia turns out to be a 3rd line star and Copp the next great 4th line C, you just flip the depth players for a mid round draft picks at the deadline. The Jets have nothing to lose other than a small amount of money

 

[mcpw]

So after all the posts here about Chevy "not wanting to overpay" and "saving it for phantom resignings several years down the road", can we agree that the Stafford contract is easily the top 3 overpays of this offseason after watching how the UFA market turned out?

Johnny Oduya
Cody Franson
Scottie Upshall
Chris Stewart
Christian Ehrhoff
Curtis Glencross

I'll wait a couple more days before I jump to conclusions.