Series Discussion: Jets (C1) vs Blues (WC2) - Western Conference First Round

He’s not quite ready to confirm, but it’s very likely that game one will not be on Friday.

He would put the percentages at 50% Saturday, 50% Sunday and 50% Monday.

His sources have also told him the series will be at least 4 games, and may go as many as 7.
Steiner math
 
  • Haha
Reactions: Hein57
The 2019 Blues were a wagon that had solved their only issue, goaltending, and was rolling into the playoffs against a Jets team that had been floundering since December. It was probably the playoff series I've felt the worst about in the past decade, except for the Knights series where we made the playoffs with 95 points.

The 2025 Blues haven't been the 2019 Blues, and the 2025 Jets haven't been the 2019 Jets.
 
Wonder how the quality of comp stacks up during their high end stretch.

Started with Pens, Wild, Ducks, Preds, Canucks, Hawks, Preds again, Habs, Red Wings, Pens again, Avs.

So in that span they beat 2 WC teams and 1 top 3 team in their division. Jets have had a harder run end of season I think.
They also beat the Kings twice home and away before this easy patch. Beating Kings and Avs twice is not something all teams can claim to have done.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Howard Chuck
A little "talk nerdy to me"....

Over the last 10 games at 5v5, the Blues are 7th in the league in GF% at 58.97 but 30th in xGF% at 42.88

Jets are 4th in GF% at 60.61 and 8th in xGF% at 54.36

I think the wagon that was the 12 game streak has turned into a pumpkin. This is a series we should win unless Helle shits the bed
:laugh:
 
Wonder how the quality of comp stacks up during their high end stretch.

Started with Pens, Wild, Ducks, Preds, Canucks, Hawks, Preds again, Habs, Red Wings, Pens again, Avs.

So in that span they beat 2 WC teams and 1 top 3 team in their division. Jets have had a harder run end of season I think.
As someone pointed out, the Blues post-4Nations break began with a 4-3 shootout loss to the Jets.

L (SO) to WPG 4-3 (home, SO)
W over COL 3-1 (home, 2nd game of B2B)
W over SEA 7-2 (home)
W over WSH 5-2 (road, 4th game in 6 nights)
W over LAK 4-1 (home, 5th game in 7 nights)
L to DAL 6-3 (road, 2nd game of B2B, 6th game in 9 nights, first regulation loss since the break)
- 2 days off
W over LAK 3-2 (road, SO)
W over ANA 4-3 (road)
W over LAK 2-1 (road, OT, 2nd game of B2B)
- 4 days off
L to PIT 5-3 (road)
W over MIN 5-1 (road, start of the streak)
W over ANA 7-2 (home, 2nd game of B2B)
W over NSH 4-1 (road)
W over VAN 4-3 (home, OT, 4th game in 6 nights)
W over CHI 4-1 (home)
W over NSH 4-1 (home, 2nd game of B2B, 6th game in 9 nights)
W over MTL 6-1 (home)
W over NSH 3-2 (road)
W over COL 2-1 (road)
- 2 days off
W over DET 2-1 (home, OT)
W over PIT 5-4 (home, OT)
W over COL 5-4 (home)
L to WPG 3-1 (road, end of streak)
L to EDM 4-3 (road)
- 2 days off
L (SO) to SEA 4-3 (road, SO)
- 2 days off
W over UTA 6-1 (home)

That's a pretty tough schedule even though they got to face a few crap teams. 5 back-to-backs with a 4-1-0 record. A couple of 4-in-6 and 6-in-9s. Played the Kings 3 times, the Avs 3 times, the Jets twice, the Caps, and the Stars once each, going 7-2-1 against those teams. Not super weak...
 
As someone pointed out, the Blues post-4Nations break began with a 4-3 shootout loss to the Jets.

L (SO) to WPG 4-3 (home, SO)
W over COL 3-1 (home, 2nd game of B2B)
W over SEA 7-2 (home)
W over WSH 5-2 (road, 4th game in 6 nights)
W over LAK 4-1 (home, 5th game in 7 nights)
L to DAL 6-3 (road, 2nd game of B2B, 6th game in 9 nights, first regulation loss since the break)
- 2 days off
W over LAK 3-2 (road, SO)
W over ANA 4-3 (road)
W over LAK 2-1 (road, OT, 2nd game of B2B)
- 4 days off
L to PIT 5-3 (road)
W over MIN 5-1 (road, start of the streak)
W over ANA 7-2 (home, 2nd game of B2B)
W over NSH 4-1 (road)
W over VAN 4-3 (home, OT, 4th game in 6 nights)
W over CHI 4-1 (home)
W over NSH 4-1 (home, 2nd game of B2B, 6th game in 9 nights)
W over MTL 6-1 (home)
W over NSH 3-2 (road)
W over COL 2-1 (road)
- 2 days off
W over DET 2-1 (home, OT)
W over PIT 5-4 (home, OT)
W over COL 5-4 (home)
L to WPG 3-1 (road, end of streak)
L to EDM 4-3 (road)
- 2 days off
L (SO) to SEA 4-3 (road, SO)
- 2 days off
W over UTA 6-1 (home)

That's a pretty tough schedule even though they got to face a few crap teams. 5 back-to-backs with a 4-1-0 record. A couple of 4-in-6 and 6-in-9s. Played the Kings 3 times, the Avs 3 times, the Jets twice, the Caps, and the Stars once each, going 7-2-1 against those teams. Not super weak...
their long win streak was pretty weak competition. not trying to say they're a poor team overall but stacking mid and bottom-feeders facilitated them to go on that run.

12-game stretch comprised of bottom feeders like CHI, NSH (3x!), ANH, PIT and mid teams like VAN, MTL, DET and MIN. that's 10/12. with COL being the only v good team they faced twice.

you can only play who the schedule dictates & they certainly get credit for sure for those victories it's still nhl teams/professionals.... but the pts% average of the opponents during those 12 games was 0.50.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Puckatron 3000
Release the f***ing schedule already!
As per The Athletic's Ates at 11:06am

There is currently a BTO concert scheduled at Canada Life Centre on Saturday. There is also an agreement for that concert to be moved, if it becomes necessary to start Game 1 against the Blues on Saturday. The Enterprise Center in St. Louis has building conflicts of its own: a Brooks & Dunn concert on April 25 and a Katt Williams performance on April 26.

There are combinations that work for Games 1 and 2, whether they’re played on Saturday and Monday or on Sunday and Tuesday. We’re all guessing until the NHL sorts out its game of scheduling Tetris; expect an official announcement on Wednesday.

Personally I've been hoping for a Sunday game 1, but many with inside sources have been told since the Presidents Trophy was finalized on Sunday that Game 1 will be this upcoming Saturday.
 
As per The Athletic's Ates at 11:06am

There is currently a BTO concert scheduled at Canada Life Centre on Saturday. There is also an agreement for that concert to be moved, if it becomes necessary to start Game 1 against the Blues on Saturday. The Enterprise Center in St. Louis has building conflicts of its own: a Brooks & Dunn concert on April 25 and a Katt Williams performance on April 26.

There are combinations that work for Games 1 and 2, whether they’re played on Saturday and Monday or on Sunday and Tuesday. We’re all guessing until the NHL sorts out its game of scheduling Tetris; expect an official announcement on Wednesday.

Personally I've been hoping for a Sunday game 1, but many with inside sources have been told since the Presidents Trophy was finalized on Sunday that Game 1 will be this upcoming Saturday.
Understandable, can't move Brooks & Dunn there would probably be a city wide riot! 🙄😒
 
  • Haha
Reactions: Jets 31
The Blues will be the first to fall.

giphy.gif
 
As someone pointed out, the Blues post-4Nations break began with a 4-3 shootout loss to the Jets.

L (SO) to WPG 4-3 (home, SO)
W over COL 3-1 (home, 2nd game of B2B)
W over SEA 7-2 (home)
W over WSH 5-2 (road, 4th game in 6 nights)
W over LAK 4-1 (home, 5th game in 7 nights)
L to DAL 6-3 (road, 2nd game of B2B, 6th game in 9 nights, first regulation loss since the break)
- 2 days off
W over LAK 3-2 (road, SO)
W over ANA 4-3 (road)
W over LAK 2-1 (road, OT, 2nd game of B2B)
- 4 days off
L to PIT 5-3 (road)
W over MIN 5-1 (road, start of the streak)
W over ANA 7-2 (home, 2nd game of B2B)
W over NSH 4-1 (road)
W over VAN 4-3 (home, OT, 4th game in 6 nights)
W over CHI 4-1 (home)
W over NSH 4-1 (home, 2nd game of B2B, 6th game in 9 nights)
W over MTL 6-1 (home)
W over NSH 3-2 (road)
W over COL 2-1 (road)
- 2 days off
W over DET 2-1 (home, OT)
W over PIT 5-4 (home, OT)
W over COL 5-4 (home)
L to WPG 3-1 (road, end of streak)
L to EDM 4-3 (road)
- 2 days off
L (SO) to SEA 4-3 (road, SO)
- 2 days off
W over UTA 6-1 (home)

That's a pretty tough schedule even though they got to face a few crap teams. 5 back-to-backs with a 4-1-0 record. A couple of 4-in-6 and 6-in-9s. Played the Kings 3 times, the Avs 3 times, the Jets twice, the Caps, and the Stars once each, going 7-2-1 against those teams. Not super weak...
First of all going on a winning streak is great and very hard to do reguardless who you play.
The five 5 B2B games is really 4 because the Preds were also playing B2B. The Kings B2B the Blues actually lost 2-1 not won. So the Blues record in 4 B2B was 2-1-1.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Puckatron 3000
Bit of potential insider info from snooping around in the Blues sub-forum:

"I can't get into specifics but I have it on very good authority that Holloway is done for the year. Recoverable long-term. But not good. I'll leave it at that. We need to mentally move on as fans that he ain't comin back this yr."

They've looked a lot more beatable while Holloway has been out of their lineup. Hate to feel good about someone having a serious injury but on the other hand I think this greatly helps our odds of advancing.
 
Understandable, can't move Brooks & Dunn there would probably be a city wide riot! 🙄😒

As per The Athletic's Ates at 11:06am

There is currently a BTO concert scheduled at Canada Life Centre on Saturday. There is also an agreement for that concert to be moved, if it becomes necessary to start Game 1 against the Blues on Saturday. The Enterprise Center in St. Louis has building conflicts of its own: a Brooks & Dunn concert on April 25 and a Katt Williams performance on April 26.

There are combinations that work for Games 1 and 2, whether they’re played on Saturday and Monday or on Sunday and Tuesday. We’re all guessing until the NHL sorts out its game of scheduling Tetris; expect an official announcement on Wednesday.

Personally I've been hoping for a Sunday game 1, but many with inside sources have been told since the Presidents Trophy was finalized on Sunday that Game 1 will be this upcoming Saturday.
It’s not just one concert, St. Louis have back to back events next week on Friday / Saturday.

So a Saturday start would indicate:

Game 1: Saturday 4/19
Game 2: Monday 4/21
Game 3: Thursday 4/24
Game 4: Sunday 4/27
 
  • Like
Reactions: jigglysquishy
Bit of potential insider info from snooping around in the Blues sub-forum:

"I can't get into specifics but I have it on very good authority that Holloway is done for the year. Recoverable long-term. But not good. I'll leave it at that. We need to mentally move on as fans that he ain't comin back this yr."

They've looked a lot more beatable while Holloway has been out of their lineup. Hate to feel good about someone having a serious injury but on the other hand I think this greatly helps our odds of advancing.

Hmmm....he seems pretty important.
Blues 5v5CF%FF%SF%GF-GAxGF%SCF%HDCF%
w/Holloway52%52%54%58-34 +2453%53%57%
w/o Holloway47%48%48%117-113 +448%49%48%

That's the whole season. They've been without him for a while and doing alright but it's mostly from their crazy shooting percentage. They haven't been as bad as above though, in terms of metrics.

Last 24 games at 5v5, Neighbours is shooting 33%, Parayko 25% (in only 7 gp), Buchnevich 24%, Leddy 22% (come on...), Bolduc 21% and Holloway 20%. This looks like the Jets powerplay before the break where everyone was shooting over 20%.

Last 3 years prior to this one at 5v5, Neighbors shot 15%, Parayko 4%, Buchnevich 12%, Leddy 4%, Bolduc 16%, and Holloway wasn't there and I'm not looking up his Edmonton stats. Those are the means to which we'd expect those shooting percentages to regress.

Here's Ehlers...
Jets 5v5CF%FF%SF%GF-GAxGF%SCF%HDCF%
w/Ehlers53%54%54%38-22 +1655%52%53%
w/o Ehlers49%50%50%131-96 +3552%51%54%
Jets still generate lots of goals and danger without him...he's pretty good though.

Here's Vilardi...and the Jets without him and without both him and Ehlers.
Jets 5v5CF%FF%SF%GF-GAxGF%SCF%HDCF%
w/Vilardi48%48%47%55-38 +1751%50%52%
w/o Vilardi51%52%52%114-80 +3453%52%54%
w/o 27+1350%51%51%80-59 +2152%52%55%
A lot of that w/o Vilardi line is boosted by Ehlers. When you look at the Jets without either...they're still pretty good.
 
Bit of potential insider info from snooping around in the Blues sub-forum:

"I can't get into specifics but I have it on very good authority that Holloway is done for the year. Recoverable long-term. But not good. I'll leave it at that. We need to mentally move on as fans that he ain't comin back this yr."

They've looked a lot more beatable while Holloway has been out of their lineup. Hate to feel good about someone having a serious injury but on the other hand I think this greatly helps our odds of advancing.
Edmonton was so stupid letting him and Broberg walk. Morons.
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Ad

Ad