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Series Discussion: Jets (C1) vs Blues (WC2) - Western Conference First Round

A little "talk nerdy to me"....

Over the last 10 games at 5v5, the Blues are 7th in the league in GF% at 58.97 but 30th in xGF% at 42.88

Jets are 4th in GF% at 60.61 and 8th in xGF% at 54.36

I think the wagon that was the 12 game streak has turned into a pumpkin. This is a series we should win unless Helle shits the bed
 
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Buffdog said:
A little "talk nerdy to me"....

Over the last 10 games at 5v5, the Blues are 7th in the league in GF% at 58.97 but 30th in xGF% at 42.88

Jets are 4th in GF% at 60.61 and 8th in xGF% at 54.36

I think the wagon that was the 12 game streak has turned into a pumpkin. This is a series we should win unless Helle shits the bed
Click to expand...

Interesting. I was actually just about to post wondering what advanced analytics suggest re: the blues play, particularly post-four-nations, as I was curious if it backed up their 20-4-3 record during that span. Sounds like over the last 10 games it wasn’t that rosy. I wonder if that could change if Holloway comes back for them, who knows though.
 
Buffdog said:
A little "talk nerdy to me"....

Over the last 10 games at 5v5, the Blues are 7th in the league in GF% at 58.97 but 30th in xGF% at 42.88

Jets are 4th in GF% at 60.61 and 8th in xGF% at 54.36

I think the wagon that was the 12 game streak has turned into a pumpkin. This is a series we should win unless Helle shits the bed
Click to expand...

Yup, they were running some crazy unsustainable percentages in terms of finishing.
 
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The Jets have had a great season and now they need to take the next step and raise their games for the playoffs. The injuries are hurting us already, but hopefully Vilardi is back soon and double hopeful that ehlers is back in this series.

This will be a tough series, so hopefully the Jets continue to play strong defensively, the PP keeps working, and Helle plays like he can.

Blues fans here on HF have been a good group over the years so hopefully the two fanbases remain respectful.
 
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Buffdog said:
A little "talk nerdy to me"....

Over the last 10 games at 5v5, the Blues are 7th in the league in GF% at 58.97 but 30th in xGF% at 42.88

Jets are 4th in GF% at 60.61 and 8th in xGF% at 54.36

I think the wagon that was the 12 game streak has turned into a pumpkin. This is a series we should win unless Helle shits the bed
Click to expand...
Yeah just looking at the Blues post-4Nations. They've been bad at generating offense, but very good at shutting down the opposition's chances.

5v5 Defensive metricBlues Jets
CA/6054.82 (10th)54.43 (8th)
SA/6022.25 (1st)24.5 (8th)
xGA/602.16 (1st)2.19 (3rd)
SCA/6025.18 (7th)22.97 (2nd)
HDCA/609.59 (6th)9.34 (3rd)
SV%91.96% (9th)93.39% (2nd)

Pretty similar defensively to the Jets. The difference is, the Jets have been better at generating quality chances.

5v5 Offensive metricBluesJets
CF/6051.66 (29th)58.53 (11th)
SF/6025.28 (24th)25.79 (21st)
xGF/602.26 (28th)2.72 (8th)
SCF/6024.27 (27th)26.83 (14th)
HDCF/609.36 (30th)12.63 (4th)
SH%12.34% (1st)9.06% (18th)

That's quite a SH% heater at 5v5 for the Blues. But maybe they've been scoring early and then shutting it down. The Jets didn't have to play from behind at any point in their last two games against St. Louis. Might be a different team when they're up a goal. I recommend not letting that happen...

On special teams, since the break, the Blues are 27.5% on the powerplay (7th). The Jets are 19.7% (23rd) (maybe hold off on the Davis Payne statue...). Blues are 81.5% on the PK (8th). The Jets are 78.2% (15th).
 
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Gm0ney said:
Yeah just looking at the Blues post-4Nations. They've been bad at generating offense, but very good at shutting down the opposition's chances.

5v5 Defensive metricBluesJets
CA/6054.82 (10th)54.43 (8th)
SA/6022.25 (1st)24.5 (8th)
xGA/602.16 (1st)2.19 (3rd)
SCA/6025.18 (7th)22.97 (2nd)
HDCA/609.59 (6th)9.34 (3rd)
SV%91.96% (9th)93.39% (2nd)

Pretty similar defensively to the Jets. The difference is, the Jets have been better at generating quality chances.

5v5 Offensive metricBluesJets
CF/6051.66 (29th)58.53 (11th)
SF/6025.28 (24th)25.79 (21st)
xGF/602.26 (28th)2.72 (8th)
SCF/6024.27 (27th)26.83 (14th)
HDCF/609.36 (30th)12.63 (4th)
SH%12.34% (1st)9.06% (18th)

That's quite a SH% heater at 5v5 for the Blues. But maybe they've been scoring early and then shutting it down. The Jets didn't have to play from behind at any point in their last two games against St. Louis. Might be a different team when they're up a goal. I recommend not letting that happen...

On special teams, since the break, the Blues are 27.5% on the powerplay (7th). The Jets are 19.7% (23rd) (maybe hold off on the Davis Payne statue...). Blues are 81.5% on the PK (8th). The Jets are 78.2% (15th).
Click to expand...
If the Blues keep shooting at 12.34% at 5v5, it means that Helle has, indeed, shit the bed. His save % at 5v5 this season is .924 (I believe)
 
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Gm0ney said:
Yeah just looking at the Blues post-4Nations. They've been bad at generating offense, but very good at shutting down the opposition's chances.

5v5 Defensive metricBluesJets
CA/6054.82 (10th)54.43 (8th)
SA/6022.25 (1st)24.5 (8th)
xGA/602.16 (1st)2.19 (3rd)
SCA/6025.18 (7th)22.97 (2nd)
HDCA/609.59 (6th)9.34 (3rd)
SV%91.96% (9th)93.39% (2nd)

Pretty similar defensively to the Jets. The difference is, the Jets have been better at generating quality chances.

5v5 Offensive metricBluesJets
CF/6051.66 (29th)58.53 (11th)
SF/6025.28 (24th)25.79 (21st)
xGF/602.26 (28th)2.72 (8th)
SCF/6024.27 (27th)26.83 (14th)
HDCF/609.36 (30th)12.63 (4th)
SH%12.34% (1st)9.06% (18th)

That's quite a SH% heater at 5v5 for the Blues. But maybe they've been scoring early and then shutting it down. The Jets didn't have to play from behind at any point in their last two games against St. Louis. Might be a different team when they're up a goal. I recommend not letting that happen...

On special teams, since the break, the Blues are 27.5% on the powerplay (7th). The Jets are 19.7% (23rd) (maybe hold off on the Davis Payne statue...). Blues are 81.5% on the PK (8th). The Jets are 78.2% (15th).
Click to expand...

Wonder how the quality of comp stacks up during their high end stretch.

Started with Pens, Wild, Ducks, Preds, Canucks, Hawks, Preds again, Habs, Red Wings, Pens again, Avs.

So in that span they beat 2 WC teams and 1 top 3 team in their division. Jets have had a harder run end of season I think.
 
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Well now I’m concerned we might be playing a team that is much better than what a top seed typically gets to play as a first round opponent. Perhaps they are the 8th seed by virtue of the bad start to the season, but really they are much better than a typical 8th seed. Link to Murat’s article and a couple of quotes from it below (scary stats IMO): Winnipeg Whiteout is almost here: What we know about Jets' Round 1 series vs. St. Louis — The Athletic



“St. Louis revamped its game upon hiring Jim Montgomery late in November. The Blues were one of the NHL’s top teams down the stretch, outscoring their opponents 99-60 since the 4 Nations Face-Off — an even better spread than the Jets’ 71-55 advantage in that same time frame.”



[…]



“No team earned more points in the standings from the 4 Nations break through today than St. Louis (41); the Blues also led the league in goals per game with 3.81 while running the seventh-best power play and eighth-best penalty kill during that time frame.”
 
Daximus said:
Wonder how the quality of comp stacks up during their high end stretch.

Started with Pens, Wild, Ducks, Preds, Canucks, Hawks, Preds again, Habs, Red Wings, Pens again, Avs.

So in that span they beat 2 WC teams and 1 top 3 team in their division. Jets have had a harder run end of season I think.
Click to expand...

But before the big winning streak (and still post four nations) they also played LA three times (and beat them twice), beat Washington, and beat Colorado. I think they aren’t a typical wild card caliber team.
 
Gm0ney said:
Yeah just looking at the Blues post-4Nations. They've been bad at generating offense, but very good at shutting down the opposition's chances.

5v5 Defensive metricBluesJets
CA/6054.82 (10th)54.43 (8th)
SA/6022.25 (1st)24.5 (8th)
xGA/602.16 (1st)2.19 (3rd)
SCA/6025.18 (7th)22.97 (2nd)
HDCA/609.59 (6th)9.34 (3rd)
SV%91.96% (9th)93.39% (2nd)

Pretty similar defensively to the Jets. The difference is, the Jets have been better at generating quality chances.

5v5 Offensive metricBluesJets
CF/6051.66 (29th)58.53 (11th)
SF/6025.28 (24th)25.79 (21st)
xGF/602.26 (28th)2.72 (8th)
SCF/6024.27 (27th)26.83 (14th)
HDCF/609.36 (30th)12.63 (4th)
SH%12.34% (1st)9.06% (18th)

That's quite a SH% heater at 5v5 for the Blues. But maybe they've been scoring early and then shutting it down. The Jets didn't have to play from behind at any point in their last two games against St. Louis. Might be a different team when they're up a goal. I recommend not letting that happen...

On special teams, since the break, the Blues are 27.5% on the powerplay (7th). The Jets are 19.7% (23rd) (maybe hold off on the Davis Payne statue...). Blues are 81.5% on the PK (8th). The Jets are 78.2% (15th).
Click to expand...

That shooting percentage is something!
 
Buffdog said:
At very few points during the recent Blues game did I feel like they were threatening at 5v5. Our structure did a great job of keeping almost everything to the outside. No reason Helle can't maintain that 5v5 save % if we play like that

View attachment 1015307
Click to expand...

Believe it was Buchnevich who had a puck bounce to him in a very dangerous spot in the waning moments of the game.

Outside of that, the shot clock told a story, and the lack of high danger chances backed it up.

They really didn't generate much of anything in the way of meaningful offense.
 
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The Blues generate very little offensive looks and this is an all year thing.
 

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Yes the Blues have the best record after the 4 Nations break but guess what ... they lost to the Jets TWICE in 2 games at home and in Winnipeg.
As far as I'm concern you can throw out the season performance of both teams ... this is the playoffs a totally different beast. The team that can rise to the next level will be the winner. I think the Jets have learned from last year's playoffs shock and I can't see them existing early this year.
 
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WolfHouse said:
Is mcintyre still reporting that the jets game will be sometime?
Click to expand...

He’s not quite ready to confirm, but it’s very likely that game one will not be on Friday.

He would put the percentages at 50% Saturday, 50% Sunday and 50% Monday.

His sources have also told him the series will be at least 4 games, and may go as many as 7.
 
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STL has been better under Montgomery however their recent win streak, at least the magnitude of it, was propelled by super soft schedule. The Jets should stomp over them even without one of Vilardi or Ehlers.
 
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