I think on average, 3 teams that weren't in the playoffs by that holiday go on to make it...so 3 who are in fade and drop out.
This page has a strength-of-schedule for remaining games, and games played so far.
NHL Strength of Schedule Rankings
According to them, the Jets have the 3rd easiest strength-of-schedule remaining, and have played the 4th most difficult schedule so far.
The Wild and Blues are both in the Top 10 easiest schedules so far (along with the Golden Knights and Canucks in the Pacific).
The Preds and Blues are in the Top 10 most difficult remaining schedules (at 8th and 10th, they're the only 2 Western Conference teams in the Top 10). The Wild are 13th.
Anyway based on that, the Jets have racked up a lot of points playing one of the toughest schedules. The Wild and Blues have struggled with relatively easy schedules and will have a tougher row to hoe the rest of the way.
This is a super useful post, and helps put the Jets' achievements thus far this year into much clearer context. Thanks for doing the spadework.
I've missed way too many games this year, even on catchup, but from my strictly armchair perspective, in the games I've managed to watch this team looks much harder to play against: more balanced, aggressive and with a more compelling mix of skill, speed and size through the forward lines.
Gus's takeaway last night that leads to the breakaway and Essy's goal was a textbook example of how to disrupt, close off and transition a potentially dangerous setup. It's precisely the sort of play that gains what we might call "aggregate advantage," because it makes an attacker now think about that zone entry, about whether to avoid Gus and try to dump or seam it in, etc -- just as we saw for years with Buff, and with a healthy Ehlers driving the zone and backing off D for open lanes. I think that teams who scout the Jets are going to have more trouble game-planning a la Cassidy last year, and are going to end up playing "Jets hockey" more than they'd prefer like. This too, I'd expect, offers an advantage to a confident team who do not concede easily.
There's room for improvement of course, and the loss of Ehlers is significant, and may really shift timelines and acquisition strategies. But it is fantastic to watch a team that plays at speed and with commitment, and is evolving backwards (as it were) to the Pack of Wolves of 2016-18.
And doing it not solely on the creaking backs of grizzled vets or exhausted stars -- PLD, Gus, Perfetti, Axel F, Harkins, Samberg, Heinola, Essy and co all chipped in with some ace efforts, although the last few minutes last night gave me a few nervous flashbacks to 2020-2. Had to blink and check to make sure it was Bowness & Co behind the bench, and not the Toastmaster in Chief and his Big Bucket o' Dentyne. Whoosh.
Also, Essy's goal showed some skill. That is not an easy shot to make, let alone get through -- as I know all too well from my Craft Beer league days.