I think you are touching on how Arniel viewed 55/81 together over some fans. IMO at least Arniel was forward looking and saw what could be ideal combinations if the players played the way and in the system he wanted, while fans who just looked at charts were saying this combination didn't do as well in the past and didn't look at what could be their potential. We are seeing 2 things happening, Scheifele is maintaining a more consistent defensive positioning where he is supporting the puck better, and Connor his tracking back better. The net result is they are making easier and more consistent zone exits, so they play less time in the defensive end and more time in the offensive end where the excel. Add in a big winger with good puck skills like Vilardi who can help control possession in the offensive zone. Personally I'm glad we have a coach that looks at what is possible if he can get players playing the way he wants.
Post-Game Talk: Jets 6 - Rangers 3
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Buffdog
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- Feb 13, 2019
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Well said. I think that the difference between a coach and some fans who are super into analytics is that a coach can look at the same metrics as a fan does and say "why are Schief and Connor getting outchanced so badly" and then actually go watch the game tape and see what needs to be addressed.
As @Whileee pointed out, some tweaks in their zone exits and D zone positioning have gone a
long way.. Whereas uninformed fans who only look at stats had nothing but "they've always sucked together, split them up"
I think there's still some improvements to be made in their play with regards to shift length (which can be both a cause AND a result of them getting hemmed in too long) which would lead to even fewer chances against
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voyageur
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I don't think you can necessarily analyze forward success in a vacuum. I think Scheifele is still working on the good habits that Bowness tried to bring in to his game. Connor seems a lot more competitive this year defensively.
There's also limited data on Vilardi.
Anything KC, Scheifele related that tracks back through time has Wheeler all over it, and Laine in 2019-20 until the trade deadline. I would think that the line in the sand for Wheeler being a negative impact came somewhere around 2022, after his injury. Everything before that was relatively close, and he still held some PP value. Shift lengths in the old coaching system of Maurice might have been an issue, but I listened to the Bowness interview someone posted here, and he talked about how you have to give stars more leeway than bottom players, just because you need them to succeed. By the time Bowness got to coach this team he wasn't worried about being fired, it was his last job, and he did the job he was sought to do, to bring some defensive structure to the forward group and team in general. I think it has slid at times, but the guys who didn't buy in aren't here now.
The other Bowness change that Arniel is reaping is more offense from the defense.
After the Buff Trouba Myers years, the defense played a flat, keep the puck in front of them game, based on their talent level, and that of the team.
Improving the skating of the defense this year, makes outlets easier, you can pressure at different points up ice, both offensively and defensively if you play in unison. And for the team to be running on all cylinders, it's 5 players reading off each other, and a goalie who wants to be the best.
There's probably also an element of familiarity that lends to the success of the players that are having another go after a successful regular season last year.
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Biggest difference I have seen so far between Arniel and Bowness is ice time and usage. Arniel seems to trust literally everyone and it feels like the players are rewarding that trust.
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IMO, the biggest change to the top line is way KC is now playing - which is a very defensively sound game.
TBH, I didn't see it coming - I expected improvement because there was a ton of room for that - but did not expect him to deliver at this level, this quickly.
As for 55, there more to give - he's better positionally when defending but there is another gear that we are not seeing.
And I'm fine with that for now - but hope to see him step up his pursuit and physical game (in our end) once PO's come around.
There's still a bit of the "fly by" in his game but less of it - maybe he needs more time - PO's would be a good time.
MardyBum
Registered User
Tbf they were ass for a chunk (just like the "2nd" line) then amazing for a chunk. The PP success and Lowry line scoring covered it.
If they're amazing, or even good, keep them together. Ehlers is my favourite Jet. I'm fine with him on the "2nd line" as long as the 1st line is good. Just good. They've been incredible lately which could lead to some amazing things, but being *at best* a 50/50 split in goals with your 20min a night #1 C is a recipe for losing.
I give KC the most credit of the 3 so far. It's not always pretty but his ass has been hustling to try and defend more this year, everywhere.
Tom ServoMST3K
In search of a Steinbach Hero
I think you would have to kidnap Doughty at gun point and have some sort of leverage on him for him to give up his LA life style and beach house in Malibu to move to Winnipeg, especially after he has won his cups.
Buffdog
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I think that we're finally starting to see what the org envisioned by having a line that's driven by Ehlers matched up vs softer competition
They're 10GF and 4GA at 5v5, and that includes their bumpy 3 game start to the season, which means they've really heated up
Also should be noted that they're equal with the Lowry line in 5v5 minutes through the first 16 games (both lines are averaging about 10 minutes at 5v5 per game vs 13 minutes per game for CSV)
Duke749
Savannah Ghost Pirates
PaulPooley
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Connor wants the puck this year. Prior to this season i questioned that drive. Now he gets to loose pucks and is using his speed.
- Jun 10, 2014
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Yes. Except I think you miscast the way the fans were looking at it. Anyone could see that they had potential to be better. But you don't expect them to be after so many years of not playing the right way.
I doubt that Arniel was unique among coaches in seeing the potential either. All of those previous coaches who insisted on keeping them together must have seen it too. The difference is that Arniel has got them to buy in. I think Bones had brought them part of the way. Arniel (so far) has finished the job.
None of what we are seeing invalidates all of the charts and graphs of the past performance. It is just that they have found another way rather than breaking them up.
Bottom line, ain't it grand!
I much prefer liking the lines to being frustrated by them. All 4 of them.
- Jun 10, 2014
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I particularly noticed 1 sequence where KFC was backchecking a puck carrier just inside our BL. He was just all over the guy, tenaciously, for quite a while. Eventually stole the puck and transitioned to offense. I forget the specifics of who it was and which game. Doesn't matter. Its etched into my brain.
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Fair you make great arguments. I would have to agree.
Though Connor is the biggest surprise as players generally don't change their game at the point of the career he is at. Which wasn't the question. Samberg and Perfetti have both grown a lot, but, shouldn't be a surprise because of their play before the NHL.
It's the haircut, his long hair was slowing him down a bit.
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I don't need even that high a standard. The top line gets matched up against other teams' top lines. If they could be just 50% against the next best 7 teams and 50%+ against the rest, I would consider that real success.
Our bottom 9, team D and goaltending can match up against or beat any other team in the league.
Agree it is impossible to not love this team right now, top to bottom, including coaching.
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He would need to waive to come here and he would need 4.6 mil for 1 more year.
What would he cost?
I don't think defense is the priority. And you'd have to wait closer to the trade deadline to build up some cap space for any significant additions (C or D).
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