Post-Game Talk: Jets 6 - Rangers 3

[Huffer]

Denial is a hell of a drug

Re-read my post. How many times have I been told that you can't win in the NHL without a top line that dominates it's matchups when I suggested another way of doing it?

That was the entire point of my post. Maybe the way I outlined it (as I think it's what the org has done) increases the chances of winning MORE than loading up a top line? It certainly looks that way this year

I think you are right in that the way for the Jets is with depth. I do think most of the board has been wishing for depth for years, and the kind of "roll the lines" way to play. The trouble is they've not always had the horses. The 2018 being the massive outlier.

The team can certainly win if CSV is at even, but that requires the other lines to come out way ahead. What's helping this season that I don't think we had in the past is that all the lines are coming out way ahead, so we have that true balanced offense (and special teams but that's a different story).

But this year CSV isn't just at even, they are actually ahead, which is huge. Connor and Scheifele are looking much better IMO than they have in recent years. Especially defensively, which has been a huge boon.

In the spirit of the Jets being 15-1 and keeping the good vibes going can I float the idea that everyone is right? The Jets CAN win if CSV can stay even or slightly ahead, as long as the rest of the lines can outscore their matchups, AND..... historically in the past, CS was actually not playing at evens, AND the other lines were not able to outscore their matchups, so the idea that trying to switch CS to ES as a sort of, "why not" wasn't a bad idea?

 

[Jet]

Still super early in the year and lots can happen but happy to see so far my prediction for the Jets is coming true, and that the reasons I gave for their success (I think I said they'd get 110 points this year) was based on young players taking next steps and a resurgence of Neal Pionk, which have both been happening so far.

The best part is I don't even think our first d pair is playing to their full potential yet. If that happens, and Pionk and Slammy continue their play, our D corps with some nice 3rd pair options/ depth is looking unglamourously strong.

Can you imagine having predicted the team being a bubble/ lottery team, especially with all the data we had from last year?

 

[Buffdog]

I think you are right in that the way for the Jets is with depth. I do think most of the board has been wishing for depth for years, and the kind of "roll the lines" way to play. The trouble is they've not always had the horses. The 2018 being the massive outlier.

The team can certainly win if CSV is at even, but that requires the other lines to come out way ahead. What's helping this season that I don't think we had in the past is that all the lines are coming out way ahead, so we have that true balanced offense (and special teams but that's a different story).

But this year CSV isn't just at even, they are actually ahead, which is huge. Connor and Scheifele are looking much better IMO than they have in recent years. Especially defensively, which has been a huge boon.

In the spirit of the Jets being 15-1 and keeping the good vibes going can I float the idea that everyone is right? The Jets CAN win if CSV can stay even or slightly ahead, as long as the rest of the lines can outscore their matchups, AND..... historically in the past, CS was actually not playing at evens, AND the other lines were not able to outscore their matchups, so the idea that trying to switch CS to ES as a sort of, "why not" wasn't a bad idea?

Man, it's funny. Fans of team that has a top line that dominates are always clamoring for depth, and here we are with the best depth in the league and people are clamoring for a top line that dominates. In the cap era, it's almost impossible to have both

For some reason it reminds me of women and their hair. Women with long, beautiful straight hair always spend time curling it and women with beautifully curtly hair will spend hours straightening it. Or guys fishing... a guy fishing from shore will try to cast their line out as far as possible while the guy on the boat wants to get to as close to shore as he can

 

[Gm0ney]

I wasn't gong to say anything, but...

Weird that person posted a 7 game sample size. If you go back to the start of the season, goal differential at 5v5 looks at like this:

CSV: 11GF 10GA 52.38GF%
NLA: 10GF 2GS 83.33GF%
ENP: 10GF 4GA 71.43GF%
BKI: 2GF 2GA 50.00GF%

So even if you go back to before CSV's recent 5v5 tear, they were losing their matchups but we were still winning. In other words, the Jets were a team whose top line was sawing off their matchups and their depth, special teams and goaltending were winning games for them

Its almost like someone on these boards posited that that could be a way of being successful in the league if a team lacked elite, top end talent like a McDavid, MacKinnon or Matthews.

However, that poster was routinely shouted down and told that even if a team finished 4th overall in the league last year with that approach, it wasn't "sustainable" to win like that

So i think the silence around the graphwatchers/Statsnerds has more to do with an aversion to having to admit that Buffdog was right

I mean, there are years of data showing that C+S together generally keep their GF-GA about even at 5v5 over large samples. So we should expect them to regress to their mean after a rough first 9 games...and that's what happened.

I hope the last 7 games of 9-1 GF and 62% xGF (and 71% HDCF!) continue indefinitely, but I think it's more likely there will be highs and lows and they'll end up somewhere in the middle (hopefully on the current side of how things are going). Like a 55% GF and positive shot metrics would make me feel a lot better about the team's prospects in the playoffs.

I'm not sure if anyone said the Jets couldn't win with a top line that was consistently losing their battles in 5v5 shot metrics, but just that real contenders generally have a dominant top line. You can obviously win with a weaker top line through special teams, Vezina goaltending, and other lines beating their matchups...I mean, that's kind of been the Jets' MO for the last 5 or 6 seasons. It' also seems clear that it's not a recipe for playoff success.

 

[Whileee]

They disrupted the top 6? Weird way to say they fixed the power play. Monahan and Ehlers were 4th/5th in Jet scoring and Taffoli, Monahan and Ehlers had 7 goals each was tied for 3rd on the Jets. Let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves rewriting history.

They were overwhelmed by the Avs' speed in the playoffs. That was my main concern. Bowness ended up pushing Toffoli down in the line-up and brought Perfetti back into the line-up because the forward lines weren't working.

Kenny Wiebe just threw out Oleksiak on KnR after last night's game. He is pretty plugged in, his hunches are always well founded...

I actually think Oleksiak makes a lot of sense for the Jets. He's what the the Jets have always hoped Stanley would become. Stanley has improved this season, but I still don't like the idea of him being a regular in the playoffs. The Jets could build a very good and deep D around Morrissey, Samberg and Oleksiak, with Salomonsson in the pipeline

 

[Whileee]

They disrupted the top 6? Weird way to say they fixed the power play. Monahan and Ehlers were 4th/5th in Jet scoring and Taffoli, Monahan and Ehlers had 7 goals each was tied for 3rd on the Jets. Let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves rewriting history.

I would add that a few days ago Chevy said that the Jets realized that they needed to get faster after last season's playoffs. I agree with his assessment and like how the lines are now configured with more speed throughout the F group top to bottom.

 

[SensibleGuy]

Re-read my post. How many times have I been told that you can't win in the NHL without a top line that dominates it's matchups when I suggested another way of doing it?

I have no idea. 5?

 

[voyageur]

Still super early in the year and lots can happen but happy to see so far my prediction for the Jets is coming true, and that the reasons I gave for their success (I think I said they'd get 110 points this year) was based on young players taking next steps and a resurgence of Neal Pionk, which have both been happening so far.

The best part is I don't even think our first d pair is playing to their full potential yet. If that happens, and Pionk and Slammy continue their play, our D corps with some nice 3rd pair options/ depth is looking unglamourously strong.

Can you imagine having predicted the team being a bubble/ lottery team, especially with all the data we had from last year?

Yeah if anyone predicted the Jets would have 2 of top 3 d men in scoring this year, please step up. Even as a Pionk fan I never saw that one coming, though the analytics of that pairing last year went quietly through the season, proving that if someone hates you they will see no value in you.

With the PP going the Jets now have 5 of the top 35 scorers in the league...Connor tied at 8, Scheif tied at 11, Ehlers tied at 15, and Morrissey/Pionk tied at 30. And don't look now but Gabe is in the top 50 too.

Everyone else just has to play their game when you have drivers like that.

 

[Whileee]

Well what do you think the "charts and graphs" have to say right now?

If anything the silence is just proof that so-called "critics of CSV" or graph lovers or whatever are just people who look at what's actually happening and adjust their opinions accordingly.

It seems Arniel has a lot of buy-in from Scheif and Connor and has an awareness of what that line needs to do to be successful. I've always liked Connor's game more away from Scheif, and Connor now seems to be playing with a lot more of that swagger and d-zone effort, and less 'cute'. Seems to be driving play more, back checking more. Definitely very good signs.

Also like that Arniel has shown willingness to put ESV together when things aren't clicking. The fact that we've seen it a couple of times already this year for a few periods and we're 15-1 is super encouraging to me and shows the coach is aware of what's going on and has the sway and buy-in to make swaps.

I try to call it like I see it, and use summary data to better understand trends. I noted earlier this season that I thought it was reasonable to see how CSV worked this season for the first 15-20 games and if they went back to some of their earlier habits and results that Arniel would likely need to change the line combinations. But I think it's pretty evident that CSV have been much more proficient at zone exits and transition, and have avoided the kinds of turnovers that led them to trouble in the past. As a result, they are spending less time defending in their own zone and are getting more offensive opportunities. In summary, they are playing better, and it's evident from watching them and in their metrics.

 

[Buffdog]

I have no idea. 5000?

Fixed it for ya

I mean, there are years of data showing that C+S together generally keep their GF-GA about even at 5v5 over large samples. So we should expect them to regress to their mean after a rough first 9 games...and that's what happened.

I hope the last 7 games of 9-1 GF and 62% xGF (and 71% HDCF!) continue indefinitely, but I think it's more likely there will be highs and lows and they'll end up somewhere in the middle (hopefully on the current side of how things are going). Like a 55% GF and positive shot metrics would make me feel a lot better about the team's prospects in the playoffs.

I'm not sure if anyone said the Jets couldn't win with a top line that was consistently losing their battles in 5v5 shot metrics, but just that real contenders generally have a dominant top line. You can obviously win with a weaker top line through special teams, Vezina goaltending, and other lines beating their matchups...I mean, that's kind of been the Jets' MO for the last 5 or 6 seasons. It' also seems clear that it's not a recipe for playoff success.

Re: last paragraph

What IS the recipie for playoff success? I don't think we have all the ingredients for that recipie, which (again) has always been my point - Chevy needed to find a new way, or at least one that maximizes the ingredients he has. And he chose a deep, balanced forward group over loading up a top line. Results this year seem to indicate that it's a promising idea

 

[Daximus]

You trade for a value 2C/top 6 forward
Sit him in the press box in case of injury and roll with the best lineup in the league.

I'm not even sure we really need anything right now. Upgrades would be nice but the team is rolling and adding anything could easily upset the balance we currently have. Both on the ice and in the room.

If the deadline was tomorrow I wouldn't add anything. We'll see what happens in a few months leading up to the deadline but as of right now. Stand pat.

 

[SensibleGuy]

Fixed it for ya

OK...sure. lol. 5000 times you've been told teams can't win without a top line that dominates it's matchups. And now here we are on a heater with our top line dominating it's matchups...and that proves you were right all along about teams not needing to have top lines that dominate to win.

 

[raideralex99]

I see 5v5 is being brought up again.
Seen I don't follow or believe in the 5v5 stats what is the best center and best defenseman 5v5 stats.
MacKinnon the leading point scorer is only a plus 1 and the leading points defenceman Makar is minus 7.
Curious to see the other teams #1 line 5v5 stats and how they rank to a 15-1 team's number 1 line.

 

[voyageur]

Fixed it for ya


Re: last paragraph

What IS the recipie for playoff success? I don't think we have all the ingredients for that recipie, which (again) has always been my point - Chevy needed to find a new way, or at least one that maximizes the ingredients he has. And he chose a deep, balanced forward group over loading up a top line. Results this year seem to indicate that it's a promising idea

That is a loaded up top line. Best player, best sniper, and a big man with hands, who can make plays.

Ehlers as secondary offense is what most teams in the NHL have. He's just thriving on the PP this year.

What most teams don't have that are invested top heavy is an Adam Lowry checking line. That can win matchups. Though we saw Big Adam struggle against Mac.

I think Whilee hit the nail on the head with speed. You get Namestnikov out there with Ehlers they can fly. Good players can create offense through spacing with quick puck movement.

A guy like Kupari brings more speed to the lineup.

Samberg and Pionk look quick as opposed to the d pairs last year. Miller is faster than Schmidt.

I still think the Jets need another d-man if they ever should draw Colorado in the 1st round.

Though I am optimistic that Scotty will push the Jets to be #1 this year and have the home ice matchups and if you asked me who #8 is in the West I'd say Edmonton.

 

[Buffdog]

OK...sure. lol. 5000 times you've been told teams can't win without a top line that dominates it's matchups. And now here we are on a heater with our top line dominating it's matchups...and that proves you were right all along about teams not needing to have top lines that dominate to win.

Its almost like you don't read posts

The original one you replied to mentioned that we were 8-1 before the top line started dominating its 5v5 matchups and it's still only +1 at 5v5 over our entire 15-1 season so far. So maybe it's not as crucial as some people think?

That is a loaded up top line. Best player, best sniper, and a big man with hands, who can make plays.

Ehlers as secondary offense is what most teams in the NHL have. He's just thriving on the PP this year.

What most teams don't have that are invested top heavy is an Adam Lowry checking line. That can win matchups. Though we saw Big Adam struggle against Mac.

I think Whilee hit the nail on the head with speed. You get Namestnikov out there with Ehlers they can fly. Good players can create offense through spacing with quick puck movement.

A guy like Kupari brings more speed to the lineup.

Samberg and Pionk look quick as opposed to the d pairs last year. Miller is faster than Schmidt.

I still think the Jets need another d-man if they ever should draw Colorado in the 1st round.

I'm speaking specifically about the handful of posters who felt it was a punishable offense to not have Ehlers with Schief and Vilardi. 1000 possible reasons for that were offered to those guys (including the benefit of having a super 2nd line that could dominate it's matchups) but they wanted more part of any other option

Yet here we are

 

[TS Quint]

They were overwhelmed by the Avs' speed in the playoffs. That was my main concern. Bowness ended up pushing Toffoli down in the line-up and brought Perfetti back into the line-up because the forward lines weren't working.

Everyone was overwhelmed by the Avs speed. They got scared. When Makar or McKinnon rushed the puck, they all just backed into Hellebuyck and left the middle of ice open. They didn’t need speed. They needed to clog the middle of the ice like the Stars did.

And Nuke bullied the defense.

 

[raideralex99]

Still super early in the year and lots can happen but happy to see so far my prediction for the Jets is coming true, and that the reasons I gave for their success (I think I said they'd get 110 points this year) was based on young players taking next steps and a resurgence of Neal Pionk, which have both been happening so far.

The best part is I don't even think our first d pair is playing to their full potential yet. If that happens, and Pionk and Slammy continue their play, our D corps with some nice 3rd pair options/ depth is looking unglamourously strong.

Can you imagine having predicted the team being a bubble/ lottery team, especially with all the data we had from last year?

I admit I was one of them ... with Preds loading up on FAs and the Stars & Avs still strong I figured 4th place.
But after listening to Jack Michaels during the Oilers game vs Jets he explained the Jets basically only lost Dillion from last year because Monahan and Toffoli were acquired at TDL and they are still the same team who won 52 games 110 points last year.
The best comment so far I heard was from Bruce Boudreau the other day .... he said the Jets were a very good team last year they just had one bad week.

 

[SensibleGuy]

Its almost like you don't read posts

The original one you replied to mentioned that we were 8-1 before the top line started dominating its 5v5 matchups and it's still only +1 at 5v5 over our entire 15-1 season so far. So maybe it's not as crucial as some people think?

That's fair enough, but like I said originally this awesome stretch we're enjoying doesn't really prove much of anything.

 

[Gm0ney]

Fixed it for ya


Re: last paragraph

What IS the recipie for playoff success? I don't think we have all the ingredients for that recipie, which (again) has always been my point - Chevy needed to find a new way, or at least one that maximizes the ingredients he has. And he chose a deep, balanced forward group over loading up a top line. Results this year seem to indicate that it's a promising idea

Well, looking at past Cup winners and contenders, the teams that get there often have pretty dominant top lines. Barkov-Reinhart for Florida. McDavid-whoever for Edmonton. Vegas had Eichel-Marchessault. Avs had MacK-Rantanen. TBL had Stamkos-Kucherov. Tarasenko-O'Reilly for the Blues. Bergereon-Marchand for Boston. Backstrom-Ovechkin for Washington. Marchessault-Karlsson in Vegas first season.

There are a handful of teams that won a conference final where I can't think of their dominant top line. (so-youre-telling-me-theres-a-chance.gif) But I don't think any of those won the Cup (2016-17 Preds? 2020-21 Habs? 2011-12 Devils? And they probably did have dominant 1st lines, I just can't remember them like Toews' lines in Chicago or Crosby's in Pittsburgh or Kopitar's in LA).

 

[Zhamnov5GoalGame]

I'm not even sure we really need anything right now. Upgrades would be nice but the team is rolling and adding anything could easily upset the balance we currently have. Both on the ice and in the room.

If the deadline was tomorrow I wouldn't add anything. We'll see what happens in a few months leading up to the deadline but as of right now. Stand pat.

Chances are by February (or whenever the deadline is) that we'll have some kind of injury.

 

[voyageur]

Its almost like you don't read posts

The original one you replied to mentioned that we were 8-1 before the top line started dominating its 5v5 matchups and it's still only +1 at 5v5 over our entire 15-1 season so far. So maybe it's not as crucial as some people think?


I'm speaking specifically about the handful of posters who felt it was a punishable offense to not have Ehlers with Schief and Vilardi. 1000 possible reasons for that were offered to those guys (including the benefit of having a super 2nd line that could dominate it's matchups) but they wanted more part of any other option

Yet here we are

Let sleeping dogs lie.

KC has always had finisher potential. But his defensive game needed work...last year he was pacing 50 goals before he got injured. I would love to see him hit that mark.

Last year's analytics are only a reference. Different coach, new season.

It's not inconceivable that KC and Scheif could slump over the course of the season...that's happened before. We'll see how Arniel deals with it.

Right now it's working, and Ehlers is going too, let's enjoy this for a moment.

 

[Daximus]

I see 5v5 is being brought up again.
Seen I don't follow or believe in the 5v5 stats what is the best center and best defenseman 5v5 stats.
MacKinnon the leading point scorer is only a plus 1 and the leading points defenceman Makar is minus 7.
Curious to see the other teams #1 line 5v5 stats and how they rank to a 15-1 team's number 1 line.

As far as top lines go the Jets top line is among the best in the league 5v5. The only top line with any amount of time together that is performing better right now is Minnesotas first line of Kaprizov-Rossi-Zucc.

In fact there are really only 3 lines that have managed to stay playing together for an extended period of time so far. Minny's top line, our top line and Vegas' top line of Barbashev-Eichel-Stone.

As far as defensive pairings go the Hughes-Hronek pairing is by far the best pairing in the league right now.

 

[raideralex99]

Its almost like you don't read posts

The original one you replied to mentioned that we were 8-1 before the top line started dominating its 5v5 matchups and it's still only +1 at 5v5 over our entire 15-1 season so far. So maybe it's not as crucial as some people think?


I'm speaking specifically about the handful of posters who felt it was a punishable offense to not have Ehlers with Schief and Vilardi. 1000 possible reasons for that were offered to those guys (including the benefit of having a super 2nd line that could dominate it's matchups) but they wanted more part of any other option

Yet here we are

This is 100% correct imo.
According to most "experts" they say the Jets have the best 3rd line in the NHL and yet yesterday they had a bad game but the other 3 lines came through.
While CVS did the majority of the scoring the 4th line BKI which nobody is talking about impressed me the most ... they keep this up the Jets will have the best 3rd and 4th line in the NHL along with the best goalie.

 

[Daximus]

Chances are by February (or whenever the deadline is that we'll have some kind of injury.

It's possible but we still have Gus, Fleury, Stanley, Ville in the PB with some young guys chomping at the bit to maybe get a call up.

I think we have solid enough depth that we can move some guys up the lineup and be alright, provided we don't suffer a bunch of injuries but if that happens we probably shouldn't get to trigger happy.

 

[Whileee]

Everyone was overwhelmed by the Avs speed. They got scared. When Makar or McKinnon rushed the puck, they all just backed into Hellebuyck and left the middle of ice open. They didn’t need speed. They needed to clog the middle of the ice like the Stars did.

And Nuke bullied the defense.

I still think they lacked speed, and Chevy said they needed to improve their speed. But no point in dwelling on it... Cheers.