Post-Game Talk: Jets 4- Preds 3 in OT
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As an aside, I think Gabe maybe the best down low PP player in the league but his 5 on 5 game has been mediocre for long periods of time.
JetsFan815
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- Jan 16, 2012
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I think Wheeler and Ehlers are close. We can't straight up compare their P/60 as Wheeler's peak was in a much more lower scoring era and I am reluctant to compare Goals+/- as Wheeler's had only 1 peak season in front of Helle and Ehlers entire peak has been in front of Helle.
If you just look at their peaks and compare league-wide rankings to negate era effects, it is actually very tight (via EvolvingHockey):
| P/60 (5v5) | RelTM xG+/- per 60 | P/60 (all situations) | |
| Wheeler Peak(12-18) | 26th | 36th | 26th |
| Ehlers Peak (17-now) | 20th | 40th | 41st |
P/60 gives straight up scoring impact and the RelTM xG+/-gives us an approximation their non-scoring 5v5 impact, they are both close Ehlers ahead in one, Wheeler in the other. If we include PP, Wheeler pulls ahead.
I personally have peak-Wheeler over peak-Ehlers, they were very close 5v5 at their peak but Wheeler's durability during his peak gives him an edge for me. The guy barely missed any games during this period and was a bull. Ofcourse PP impact pulls him clearly ahead.
Either way I think they are 1 and 2 on Jets and I don't think anyone even comes close. I would imagine a massive dropoff after them and it would be close between Ladd-Scheifele-Perreault for the next spot a full tier down, then PLD-Little vying off for the next tier.
WolfHouse
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I'll use that with revenue canada this year
i still enjoy partying, tailgates, street-parties & whatnot from time to time. i don't even mind the cover charge if it keeps the undesirables out. but just something about the 17-18 one was different. maybe it was the team or the pandemonium of 15k+ fans, not sure.
I'm as glass-half-full as the next guy, but I'm not going to say it's half full when it's 3/4 empty...
The water in this analogy is the 2 points and Hellebuyck's performance.
The empty glass part is the nearly universal terrible play, the blown lead, the reuniting of CSV, the benching of Perfetti and Ehlers, the not-benching of Pionk.
JetsFan815
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We are at 48 wins on the season in part due to that top line not playing together for most of the season due to injuries. By my estimate, this version of the Jets top line has started 12 games together and the Jets are 6-6-0 during these games and the Jets only faced teams currently in the playoffs just 3 times in these games so it was relatively easy competition than they are gonna face from here on.
If Ehlers was terrible last night is the only option to reunite 81-55-13? Esp since 81-23-91 line had been playing well and scoring goals? Could the coach not have kept the 2nd line that was doing well together and instead swapped Ehlers and Namestnikov? Or Ehlers and Toffolli? Or even Ehlers and Barron for that matter?
I think the frustration @Gm0ney and others are experiencing has less to do with Ehlers and more to do with one of the worst 1st lines in the league being reunited again right in time for the playoffs (something that felt inevitable already). Also we all know the change in lines is permanent not just a one off for last night.
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Actually, it goes for surgeons too. People often get a 2nd opinion and sometimes it is very different from the 1st one.
Growing up, I was taught to question everything. Not to deny, or argue pointlessly, but simply to examine without automatically conceding to authority.
If you find that objectionable what is it you expect to find here?
Blue Shakehead
because lol Jets
This is fair, the total results matter. There is a chicken and egg thing here though. Part of the reason he scores less points is due to less minutes. Both 5v5 and PP1. He indisputably is more productive per minute than any other Jet.
He makes everyone around him better by the numbers as well. This is true of most players.
probably a fair assessment.
unpredictable is uaed with a negative connotation here but im not sure it actually is negative.
the entry stats arent inflated, he is outstanding at this. What you are talking about likely is showing itself in his total points already
Again, lack of playoff performance plagued him early. Last couple playoffs he has missed lots of action but did have an OT winner. Big chunk of that was 2017 in his 2nd year. But absolutely a fair criticism.
JetsFan815
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Do you have a link to what Hamilton said? I'm not inclined to fully believe him as he's not been covering the Jets this season so I question the amount of access/sources that he has but it would interesting to read nonetheless. I know he had been implying similar stuff on podcasts last season when Wheeler was here.
Buffdog
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It seems like the narrative has changed from "Ehlers needs to be on the top line" to just "the top line shouldn't be Connor - Schief".
Much to your chagrin (and the chagrin of many others), you're probably going to see Bones flip flop back and forth between those two options based on how the games are going.
At the end of the day, due to the limitations of some of our forwards, there is no perfect line combo that is not going to have its flaws. Schief was around 25th in scoring for centres in the NHL last time I checked, so its going to be difficult to create a 1st line around him that beats other teams 1st lines consistently in a best vs best matchup. Having Connor on his wing creates some well documented deficiencies, but as we saw in the LA and Nashville games, putting Ehlers there doesn't make it a whole lot better
Thats why we need Lowry's line to step up and create a tough matchup for the other team and have one of Schief and Monahan to feast on their matchup. This will be harder to do on the road than at home, obviously
I agree they are finding a way to win but usually because of Helly or the other team having a low shooting percentage. I would not characterize myself as being 'pissed' rather concerned that all this 'winning' may result in a first round exit because they play just well enough to win regular season games but nowhere near the level of play you need to win playoff games. I think you would admit they are two very different styles of hockey?
I know that the perceived negativity can be tiring.
We had a top line that has been statistically one of the worst in the NHL this year. We had a different version of a top line that performed extremely well and didn't seem to be given a chance for a while.
The different version has had its share of struggles. It is still performing better overall on the season. By a pretty big margin by NHL standards.
To me its about what the facts are telling me and not what others positions are and if they are right or wrong?
It's true the ESV seemed to crash down to Earth a bit. But even when it dropped off it still hasn't dropped below the level we are accustomed to from CSV.
We have a punchers chance with either but it still seems like one configuration gives us a better chance to win than the other.
Buffdog
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They definitely seem to be playing differently than in December, but I'm not sure why.
That said, I strongly believe that it's not a negative to have Helle take over a game and win it for us any more than if McDavid or Mackinnon did the same. He's the best player on the planet at his position this year. Hockey is a team game, and the goaltender is arguably the most important player on the team.
I don't understand why people go "well, you only won because your goalie played great". So what. Winning is the point. It doesn't have to look the same for every team
bustamente
Fraud Supporter
Yeah, the 17-18 White Out parties just got bigger and bigger as each round ended. I did enough partying in my 20's 30's to last me a couple of lifetimes, but I really get a kick watching all those people gathered together wearing white cheering on this team outside and and inside.
The buy-in from October-December seems to have disappeared. For a while there, everyone was pulling in the same direction, doing what needed to be done. But it's been a while since we've seen anything resembling that. The Jets still win their fair share...still lots of talent. Lowry's line is still performing. Hellebuyck's still in Vezina mode. Morrissey is a force. It's just not that cohesive team effort and I don't know how much they can accomplish without it.
I am not sure why either and I guess it is frustrating to see them unable to get back to that style of play. If they could then they would be a contender.
I agree that Helly saving their bacon on a nightly basis is like a MacKinnon or McDavid leading their teams to wins but it is harder for a goalie to carry the load (i.e.) play as many games as a skater plus they have a supporting cast and can take a minute or two off after every shift whereas if Helly stands on his head and faces 45 shots he is, understandably, worn down for the next game because the team defence did not help him out at all.
I appreciate the discussion. It is cathartic! haha
If they drop both games to DAL and COl I hope you can walk me back onto the bandwagon in time for the start of the playoffs. haha
Buffdog
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I think that if the team had that buy in again, there'd be a lot less griping about line combos because it wouldn't matter as much
Buffdog
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I think at the end of the day, both Dallas and Colorado are high quality teams. If the Jets find a way to win both, I don't give a f*** what it looks like. I'd also be happy to see signs of the dominant Jets from months ago even if we lose competitive games
That said, even if they play like shit and get blown out and swept in 4 games in the playoffs, those aren't the kind of things that I let upset me
I really do not want to see a sweep unless it is the Jets doing it and it will upset me if they get swept or at least validate my feelings about their buy-in since January or lack thereof
scelaton
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- Jul 5, 2012
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I will take a crack at responding to your observations.
HF Jets is a microcosm of the larger sports world and a slice of the wider world in general. A range of people you would not meet outside your familiar world are here in full, anonymous splendor-- some cheerful, some bitter; some articulate, some write madness when they actually feel sadness; some humble, some needing to win every battle, as if they were still on the ice. And, of course, lots with physical and mental problems. Most all of them love the team, but aren't we all sometimes hardest on the ones we love?
Optimism/pessimism is, to a large degree, hard-wired, so it's pointless trying to change people's basic nature. That's a mistake I see made constantly and it's just frustrating for both sides. It's especially frustrating to tell a smart, analytical, pessimist hockey nerd that things are great when the world is burning up, its resources exhausted, the rich are profiting from it all AND Bowness picks the wrong line combinations.
The last thing is, people change over time. I joined HFJ 12 years ago as diversion from real life and was just happy the Jets were back. Over the years, as I am wont to do, I became a student of the game, put in (too) many hours of reading and now and consider myself quite knowledgeable. Masters level, if you will. I love the pure passion of fandom but love the analytical side as well, and the critical review that comes with it. Love squared. But the thing about love is, you have to pick your partners carefully.
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I've said before there are different types of fans. Some just want to ride the roller coaster and some want to know how the f*** we're not falling out of our seats when we do a loop...but sometimes the two types annoy each other... because if you just want the fun ride you don't want to hear about centripetal force. I'm sure a lot of hockey fans were under the impression that there wouldn't be any math questions.
Buffdog
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I'll happily take the title of "the one that needs to win every battle"... and this is one I'll pick
In the history of our species, there has never been a better time to be alive than right now, and there no better place than right here
Three or four generations ago you had a constant worry about having to starve to death or die of disease. Now you have enough food in your pantry to keep you alive for a month
In the past 150 years someone came up with a way that you can push a button and your human waste is taken away vs it seeping into he water you pull from your well. Turn a knob, and ypu have unlimited clean water. There's a kid in Africa right now drinking out of a mud puddle FFS
We have it so goddamn good that we need to find petty little shit to worry about like who wins a sports game or worse, which players play the game together
Your attitude isn't as hardwired as you think. How you respond to stimuli is a choice, but most don't know how to use it
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