Post-Game Talk: Jets 4 - Habs 1

[ps241]

It’s funny how on the Canadiens board they sulk when they lose to the Jets and continue coping by bringing up that they beat the Jets in the playoffs in that Covid year. Whatever help them sleep. Keep holding onto victories from years ago.

No mention of how Jets played majority of that series without our top center.

They kicked our ass in that series but that was a long time ago now. Feels like their fan base is a bit stuck in their very glorious past but they haven’t really been the Habs of old since the late 70’s. That was the end of a string of illustrious stretches of domination. After that they have been a competitive franchise but not the Habs of old with two cups in 45 years and none in 32 years.

Are they a storied franchise……….Hell yes but if you are 40 or younger you probably don’t remember what it was like. People laugh at the Leafs for their current slump for good reason but the Habs faithful who were around back in the true glory days are dying off now too.

I know the Avco cup days were really great in Winnipeg but I didn’t live here then, nor did I follow it. I love talking to fellow old timers about how great those teams were but if you didn’t live it then its just different. There is no emotional connection it’s just a cool piece of history.

 

[Buffdog]

They kicked our ass in that series but that was a long time ago now. Feels like their fan base is a bit stuck in their very glorious past but they haven’t really been the Habs of old since the late 70’s. That was the end of a string of illustrious stretches of domination. After that they have been a competitive franchise but not the Habs of old with two cups in 45 years and none in 32 years.

Are they a storied franchise……….Hell yes but if you are 40 or younger you probably don’t remember what it was like. People laugh at the Leafs for their current slump for good reason but the Habs faithful who were around back in the true glory days are dying off now too.

I know the Avco cup days were really great in Winnipeg but I didn’t live here then, nor did I follow it. I love talking to fellow old timers about how great those teams were but if you didn’t live it then its just different. There is no emotional connection it’s just a cool piece of history.

Must be nice to have a glorious past to be stuck in

The past that I'm stuck in is heartbreaking losses to the Oilers in the 80s lol

 

[FiveHoled]

Looking good.

 

[TS Quint]

We keep hoping Stan develops in Kovacevic... I legit think the 'intangible' in this equation is that someone in the org wagered their career on the Stan pick and we need him to succeed. The sunk cost fallacy is a very real thing.

I dont like Fleury's game especially paired with Stan... he looks okay for a while and then consistently overcommits to plays. Both players need a D that can cover for their gaffs.

Being pushed off the puck by Gallagher pretty much sums up my view of Stan.

At this point, our 3rd pairing is a downgrade from Beaulieu/Sbisa...


Really matches the eye test
Names has fallen off quite a bit this year

All the people who suddenly fell in love with Kovacevic this year should be pushing to keep at it with Stan for a couple more years. If all things are equal. But strangely they don't.

 

[TS Quint]

here's my question....and i'm not necessarily asking you...but maybe you know.

and It's never been answered...
what is the "fitness" of all these stats....

what is the real world error factor on GF%
what is the sig fig value of GF% like is there a real difference between 47 and 53? Is the error bar +/-1 or is the error bar on +/- 15

because if its 1 then yes 47 is bad and 53 is good but if it's 15? then the difference between 47 and 53 is insignificant.. and both players are statistically the same...

Then there is also the question of asigning averages to players who are the most often discussed, the far above/below average players.

Or discussing players on different teams who play different systems with different focus.

 

[BobTheSolarsystem]

All the people who suddenly fell in love with Kovacevic this year should be pushing to keep at it with Stan for a couple more years. If all things are equal. But strangely they don't.

No one suddenly fell in love with him... most jets fans expected him to break our lineup along with chisholm... go back and read the threads if you want

 

[Flair Hay]

No one suddenly fell in love with him... most jets fans expected him to break our lineup along with chisholm... go back and read the threads if you want

Its an indirect acknowledgement that he is not just waiver fodder or a league minimum calibre player because of his salary.

That is a fair bit of progress from a few months back, despite the silly comparison.

The Athletic has him listed as a $6.2M market value based on his performance.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/60...cards-metropolitan?source=user-shared-article

 

[MardyBum]

This one doesn't have the camera switch in it. Right click on the video to adjust speed.

Was looking for this, thanks!

 

[raideralex99]

All the people who suddenly fell in love with Kovacevic this year should be pushing to keep at it with Stan for a couple more years. If all things are equal. But strangely they don't.

Kovacevic ... 195 games played
Stanley ... 177 games played
I didn't have a problem with Stanley in the previous years its a learning process ... as long as he improves every year that's great.
This year I'm seeing way too many mistakes. I understand having an off night but he has more off nights than good nights and that's not a good thing.
He was brought in for his toughest but the other night against Utah or Flames I can't remember which game he had a scoring chance goalie made the save and Stanley was watching the scoreboard replay while there was a scrum in front of the net behind him.
As Jet fans we all want Stanley to success but when you have at least 1 better D men (maybe 2? Heinola might be better vs Fast teams) on the roster sitting ... fans are getting upset and I don't blame them.
Nothing would be better than Stanley making the majority of Jet fans eat crow.

 

[TS Quint]

Kovacevic ... 195 games played
Stanley ... 177 games played
I didn't have a problem with Stanley in the previous years its a learning process ... as long as he improves every year that's great.
This year I'm seeing way too many mistakes. I understand having an off night but he has more off nights than good nights and that's not a good thing.
He was brought in for his toughest but the other night against Utah or Flames I can't remember which game he had a scoring chance goalie made the save and Stanley was watching the scoreboard replay while there was a scrum in front of the net behind him.
As Jet fans we all want Stanley to success but when you have at least 2 better D men on the roster sitting ... fans are getting upset and I don't blame them.
Nothing would be better than Stanley making the majority of Jet fans eat crow.

Who are the two better players?

 

[10Ducky10]

What are you basing that opinion on?

I am basing my opinion that he is barely adequate on the right side on my eyes and watching him play.
He has had about 7 or 8 games that were adequate, the rest, including last night, he played give away too many times. I've seen enough of him, dress Miller for God's sake. His foot speed is not NHL level. Neither is his hockey IQ.

I don't have much of a problem with him in the O zone but in the D zone he looks lost too often.
He turns 27 in a few months so he should be in his prime or about to go into it. I don't see him as being good enough to play regularly on the 3rd pairing and if we had another tough D man, I doubt he'd start. Seeing as I'm talking about his "toughness", he is a shitty fighter for any size. He should be wasting guys when he gets in a fight and barely holds is own.
If Ehlers was his size, opponents would have their head on a swivel when he was on the ice.

 

[Crocket]

Vilardi took a couple shots off the leg one shift. Then got hit really hard on a breakout, he didn't have the puck, and don't remember seeing him after late in 3rd.

Also. Scheifele received a nice elbow to the face I believe right before KC scored his second goal, no call.

Nice win. Loved seeing Barron destroy Dach.

Montreal has some dirty players

 

[raideralex99]

Who are the two better players?

My bad one player Miller is better I'll fix it ... Heinola might be better against fast skating we don't know he doesn't get a chance but Stanley is definitely better than Heinola agianst the heavy teams.

 

[Crocket]

Who are the two better players?

Heinola is way better, eye ball and numbers. Fluery is better, and now that Arniel is playing them both, I'd rather see a Fluery Miller, or Heinolo Miller pair.

Stanley is a complete liability

 

[Hobble]

Stanley should just wake up every morning to tape from that game against Tampa, where he had a goal, a huge hit, and a fight. That’s what we want every night. Problem is we get that Stanley every 1 out of 20 games.

 

[Gm0ney]

I agree on all points

The issue then becomes... what happens when I point out that Stanley - Miller have the best GF% of any D paring at 5v5 on the Jets this year?

This is where the mental gymnastics creep in because that runs against people's narratives and biases, and we start to get the "well, yeah, BUT...."

I've been saying for some time that Stanley often looks terrible to the eye. He's...pylonic? Anyway, a handful of those kind of things get remembered more than a bunch of "that was fine" moments. And this is where stats come in handy.

But picking one stat out of a small 200 minute sample (especially GF%, because goals are so luck driven) and making a determination is not going to give an accurate picture of Stanley-Miller's play or provide any predictive value. They're getting a .990 on-ice SV%...and while Hellebuyck is elite, that's just not sustainable. Their shot metrics are about breakeven. Which is fine for a sheltered 3rd pair.

Stanley's struggled away from Miller, so maybe the Jets should be trying Miller + other defensemen - and if that doesn't work, then you've got a decent 3rd pair in Miller-Stanley to go back to. But then that would mean putting Stan in the pressbox - and we all know he's not getting better there.

 

[10Ducky10]

Has become? He has been above 43% xGF% in a season once since his sophomore season (and even that season, he finished at sub 47%). He's pacing to finish below 40% xGF% in a season for the second time in that time frame. He's absolutely unplayable 5v5.

I remember when the Finnish House Mafia on here got really upset when people had the gall to say he needed to improve his 5v5 play. Seems he agreed with them.

Screw Laine. He doesn't want to play here? Get the fuq outta town with Kane and Trouba and PLD and any other player that doesn't want to play here.
One trick pony and not even that at 8.7m a year!!!

 

[robertocarlos]

Its an indirect acknowledgement that he is not just waiver fodder or a league minimum calibre player because of his salary.

That is a fair bit of progress from a few months back, despite the silly comparison.

The Athletic has him listed as a $6.2M market value based on his performance.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/60...cards-metropolitan?source=user-shared-article

Don't let Heinola read that article.

 

[Buffdog]

I am basing my opinion that he is barely adequate on the right side on my eyes and watching him play.
He has had about 7 or 8 games that were adequate, the rest, including last night, he played give away too many times. I've seen enough of him, dress Miller for God's sake. His foot speed is not NHL level. Neither is his hockey IQ.

I don't have much of a problem with him in the O zone but in the D zone he looks lost too often.
He turns 27 in a few months so he should be in his prime or about to go into it. I don't see him as being good enough to play regularly on the 3rd pairing and if we had another tough D man, I doubt he'd start. Seeing as I'm talking about his "toughness", he is a shitty fighter for any size. He should be wasting guys when he gets in a fight and barely holds is own.
If Ehlers was his size, opponents would have their head on a swivel when he was on the ice.

If a guy's foot speed and hockey IQ were that bad, then it should show up in the underlying numbers (or so I've been told)

This year, Stanley has the 2nd best GF% of all the Dmen on the team. And ironically, if you look at his xGF/60, he's the same as Pionk and Demelo, just behind JoMo. And even more ironically is that his shot metrics are bad largely because he shoots the puck at half the rate of other d men

So what I'm saying is that it seems like your eye test doesn't match the actual results on ice

 

[10Ducky10]

My eye test sees him giving up the puck and Helle usually having to make a stellar save because of it. That's not counting how freaking slow he is. If you think Stanley is a bona fide 3rd pairing D man in the NHL, we'll just have to disagree.

 

[Buffdog]

I've been saying for some time that Stanley often looks terrible to the eye. He's...pylonic? Anyway, a handful of those kind of things get remembered more than a bunch of "that was fine" moments. And this is where stats come in handy.

But picking one stat out of a small 200 minute sample (especially GF%, because goals are so luck driven) and making a determination is not going to give an accurate picture of Stanley-Miller's play or provide any predictive value. They're getting a .990 on-ice SV%...and while Hellebuyck is elite, that's just not sustainable. Their shot metrics are about breakeven. Which is fine for a sheltered 3rd pair.

Stanley's struggled away from Miller, so maybe the Jets should be trying Miller + other defensemen - and if that doesn't work, then you've got a decent 3rd pair in Miller-Stanley to go back to. But then that would mean putting Stan in the pressbox - and we all know he's not getting better there.

See, you're doing it again

GF% wasn't "luck driven" when talking about ES vs CS

And from there, EVERYONE has the same goalie behind them - if Stanley was causing the worst outcomes on the team, the numbers should say that. But he's 62 GF% over 530 minutes on the ice.. 2nd best. That's EXACTLY what you want from your 3rd pairing.

And of course you're going to shelter your 3rd pairing... if you put them out against the other teams best, they'd be your 1st pairing lol. Every team does it

 

[raideralex99]

Great game and great finish last night.

It impresses me when we can spend a period getting clowned like we did in the 1st and basically turn the tables the next period. That's the sign of a team that believes in themselves.

I missed the first 15 mins of the game but what's funny I watched the highlights on NHL.com the first 2 highlights are Scheifele and Kurpari scoring chances and then the Habs goal followed by Connor's goal so 3 of the 4 highlights were Jets.

 

[10Ducky10]

If a guy's foot speed and hockey IQ were that bad, then it should show up in the underlying numbers (or so I've been told)

This year, Stanley has the 2nd best GF% of all the Dmen on the team. And ironically, if you look at his xGF/60, he's the same as Pionk and Demelo, just behind JoMo. And even more ironically is that his shot metrics are bad largely because he shoots the puck at half the rate of other d men

So what I'm saying is that it seems like your eye test doesn't match the actual results on ice

Do you think Stanley is a good enough player to play on the 3rd pairing in the NHL?
Do you think he is better than Miller? Fleury? Heinola?

 

[Gm0ney]

Has become? He has been above 43% xGF% in a season once since his sophomore season (and even that season, he finished at sub 47%). He's pacing to finish below 40% xGF% in a season for the second time in that time frame. He's absolutely unplayable 5v5.

I remember when the Finnish House Mafia on here got really upset when people had the gall to say he needed to improve his 5v5 play. Seems he agreed with them.

Watching him in those early years, I'd see him struggle to do the right thing with the puck and turn it over or be unable to clear it - but man, I thought he'd get that stuff sorted out. A lot of his troubles seemed to be either "you're just not going to get away with that in the NHL" or "just a fraction of a second faster and that's an elite play". He was 18...not sure how everything stalled there.

 

[Jet]

Do you think Stanley is a good enough player to play on the 3rd pairing in the NHL?
Do you think he is better than Miller? Fleury? Heinola?

Yes, Yes, close, Yes

See, you're doing it again

GF% wasn't "luck driven" when talking about ES vs CS

And from there, EVERYONE has the same goalie behind them - if Stanley was causing the worst outcomes on the team, the numbers should say that. But he's 62 GF% over 530 minutes on the ice.. 2nd best. That's EXACTLY what you want from your 3rd pairing.

And of course you're going to shelter your 3rd pairing... if you put them out against the other teams best, they'd be your 1st pairing lol. Every team does it

Stan has kind of let me down recently as he had a really nice run of games, but too many oofs in the past few (including last night).

I still think he's better than Miller and Heinola at this point, and pretty close to Fleury