Post-Game Talk: Jets 4 - Habs 1

[DharmaBum]

This one doesn't have the camera switch in it. Right click on the video to adjust speed.

 

[Moloch]

Im gonna be completely honest I've forgotten about the need for a 2c at the deadline in favour of a capable defenceman for the 3rd pair. Stan and Fleury together was atrocious, at least get miller in, advance stats tell us he's our best 3rd.

 

[Buffdog]

here's my question....and i'm not necessarily asking you...but maybe you know.

and It's never been answered...
what is the "fitness" of all these stats....

what is the real world error factor on GF%
what is the sig fig value of GF% like is there a real difference between 47 and 53? Is the error bar +/-1 or is the error bar on +/- 15

because if its 1 then yes 47 is bad and 53 is good but if it's 15? then the difference between 47 and 53 is insignificant.. and both players are statistically the same...

Awesome questions

One thing that's always bothered me about these stats are the fact that often they're expressed as relative differences instead of absolute differences. So in the big picture, is someone who is a 52% xGF REALLY that much more impressive than someone who is a 48%?

If you're going to use a scale that goes by %, then you should show the whole axis (0-100)... and people would see very quickly that almost every single player groups in the middle 10%.

Last season during the great ES vs CS debates, I often converted those relative stats to absolute stats... and often they'll end up being almost insignificant, yet people will make large conclusions based on them

Im gonna be completely honest I've forgotten about the need for a 2c at the deadline in favour of a capable defenceman for the 3rd pair. Stan and Fleury together was atrocious, at least get miller in, advance stats tell us he's our best 3rd.

Advanced stats say our best 3rd pair is Stanley - Miller by a large margin. In fact, they say that they're our best pair, period

 

[10Ducky10]

So, Stanley can barely hold his own on the left side and they play him on the right side???

 

[sipowicz]

Looks like Laine has become a pp specialist, no pp's for the Habs last night Laine was nowhere to to seen.

Laine played?

 

[Buffdog]

So, Stanley can barely hold his own on the left side and they play him on the right side???

What are you basing that opinion on?

 

[Royale With Cheese]

Great game and great finish last night.

It impresses me when we can spend a period getting clowned like we did in the 1st and basically turn the tables the next period. That's the sign of a team that believes in themselves.

 

[Skidooboy]

Laine played?

Fortnite... after he went home....

 

[jokesondee]

Im gonna be completely honest I've forgotten about the need for a 2c at the deadline in favour of a capable defenceman for the 3rd pair. Stan and Fleury together was atrocious, at least get miller in, advance stats tell us he's our best 3rd.

Definitely need another D but a 2C is a must if we want to go deep in the playoffs. Lowry is awesome but not a 2C and Namestnikov is a 4C on a good team.

 

[ps241]

Nothing about farting backstage?

Stanley was bad last night - I really thought he was starting to get it but some of the plays he made were just atrocious. He needs to sit for a bit me thinks.

Kyle Connor is a lovely hockey player.

I loved how Schiefele scored to shut those idiots up. I was really hoping he was going to beat the shit out of Evans on his home ice - that would have been amazing.

That Barron hit was hilarious. I don't even think he hit Dach that hard, is he filled with helium?

I am sure on the domestic front that a win over Montreal is even more special for you

 

[Flyby]

What are you basing that opinion on?

The visible chaos every time he is on the freaking ice with him running around like a chicken with his head cut off and no clue where he’s supposed to be!!!

 

[Jets 31]

This one doesn't have the camera switch in it. Right click on the video to adjust speed.

It gets funnier the more you watch it. Plus now i can't get that Dach is full of helium out of my head thanks to @Jet .

 

[Hunter368]

This one doesn't have the camera switch in it. Right click on the video to adjust speed.

Great hit by Barron, crushed Dach, love it

 

[Gm0ney]

So how are we judging players?

I could have sworn last year when we were talking about CSV vs ESV GF% was the biggest stat, maybe followed by xGF%?

Can we agree in advance so goalposts don't get moved all over the field?

I think 5v5 GF% was used a lot - it's just the results, in terms of goals for and against, while certain players were on the ice. There's nothing fancy about this stat. It's +/- without most of the weaknesses of regular +/-. So theoretically, it should be more accessible to those who think the shot metrics and modeled stats (like xG and SC/HDSC) are just hogwash.

There were a few threads to that debate a year ago:

1) ESV worked really well together. CSV did not. Pick your stat...they all said this.
2) Connor and Scheifele together is a problem. Pick your stat.
3) Ehlers is pretty good at tilting the ice and his individual contributions seemed underrated.

Aside from the smallish sample of ESV/CSV together last season, the rest all have large and consistent, multi-year samples.

This season, CSV are doing very well together in both GF% and the modeled stats (they're still underwater in shot metrics, but they're crushing it in xG, SCF, and HDCF, so that's less of a concern). There's only a tiny sample of C+S and they haven't been good, but sample size alert. If Vilardi fixes C+S that's great (but there was no hint that he would last season or early this season).

Also Ehlers has been struggling on his line across the board this season (except in GF% where everything is still amazing).

 

[ps241]

Awesome questions

One thing that's always bothered me about these stats are the fact that often they're expressed as relative differences instead of absolute differences. So in the big picture, is someone who is a 52% xGF REALLY that much more impressive than someone who is a 48%?

If you're going to use a scale that goes by %, then you should show the whole axis (0-100)... and people would see very quickly that almost every single player groups in the middle 10%.

Last season during the great ES vs CS debates, I often converted those relative stats to absolute stats... and often they'll end up being almost insignificant, yet people will make large conclusions based on them


Advanced stats say our best 3rd pair is Stanley - Miller by a large margin. In fact, they say that they're our best pair, period

It’s what has always bothered me about faceoff %. If player A is 52% from the dot vs player B being 48% it seems like the importance of that is just way overblown.

How is the info gathered? How clean or dirty does the win have to be? Is it in an attacking zone or in one of the other 5 neutral ice zone dots? A clean win on a PP or PK is much different than a muddy win at centre ice. Honestly its just a puck battle and if its so important why don’t we track all puck battles because many other non faceoff puck battles that are won clean lead more directly to scoring chances than face offs.

I could go on but I think the category overweighted.

 

[Thechozen1]

It’s funny how on the Canadiens board they sulk when they lose to the Jets and continue coping by bringing up that they beat the Jets in the playoffs in that Covid year. Whatever help them sleep. Keep holding onto victories from years ago.

No mention of how Jets played majority of that series without our top center.

 

[Aggie204]

Looks like Laine has become a pp specialist, no pp's for the Habs last night Laine was nowhere to to seen.

An eight million dollar PP merchant, brutal. I was listening to some YouTubers who cover the Canadiens and brought up his defensive liabilities. So it begins.

 

[Buffdog]

The visible chaos every time he is on the freaking ice with him running around like a chicken with his head cut off and no clue where he’s supposed to be!!!

Thing is, that doesn't translate to actual goal results

It's almost like he's the "anti-burmi"... he looked absolutely amazing while getting absolutely nothing done

I think 5v5 GF% was used a lot - it's just the results, in terms of goals for and against, while certain players were on the ice. There's nothing fancy about this stat. It's +/- without most of the weaknesses of regular +/-. So theoretically, it should be more accessible to those who think the shot metrics and modeled stats (like xG and SC/HDSC) are just hogwash.

There were a few threads to that debate a year ago:

1) ESV worked really well together. CSV did not. Pick your stat...they all said this.
2) Connor and Scheifele together is a problem. Pick your stat.
3) Ehlers is pretty good at tilting the ice and his individual contributions seemed underrated.

Aside from the smallish sample of ESV/CSV together last season, the rest all have large and consistent, multi-year samples.

This season, CSV are doing very well together in both GF% and the modeled stats (they're still underwater in shot metrics, but they're crushing it in xG, SCF, and HDCF, so that's less of a concern). There's only a tiny sample of C+S and they haven't been good, but sample size alert. If Vilardi fixes C+S that's great (but there was no hint that he would last season or early this season).

Also Ehlers has been struggling on his line across the board this season (except in GF% where everything is still amazing).

I agree on all points

The issue then becomes... what happens when I point out that Stanley - Miller have the best GF% of any D paring at 5v5 on the Jets this year?

This is where the mental gymnastics creep in because that runs against people's narratives and biases, and we start to get the "well, yeah, BUT...."

 

[Romang67]

Looks like Laine has become a pp specialist, no pp's for the Habs last night Laine was nowhere to to seen.

Has become? He has been above 43% xGF% in a season once since his sophomore season (and even that season, he finished at sub 47%). He's pacing to finish below 40% xGF% in a season for the second time in that time frame. He's absolutely unplayable 5v5.

I remember when the Finnish House Mafia on here got really upset when people had the gall to say he needed to improve his 5v5 play. Seems he agreed with them.

 

[Gm0ney]

But they are! Fancy stats say so!

The Fancy stats do not, in fact, say so. The only way someone could rate Montreal's forward lines as better than the corresponding Jets lines would be through the Goggles of Fan Delusion.

 

[Aggie204]

It’s funny how on the Canadiens board they sulk when they lose to the Jets and continue coping by bringing up that they beat the Jets in the playoffs in that Covid year. Whatever help them sleep. Keep holding onto victories from years ago

"Who's the man who scored 4 touchdowns in a single game to clinch the city championship in 1966?"

The Fancy stats do not, in fact, say so. The only way someone could rate Montreal's forward lines as better than the corresponding Jets lines would be through the Goggles of Fan Delusion.

I think @jokesondee was being tongue-in-cheek.

 

[johnnyonthspot]

When Stanley/Fleury were on the ice last night we seemed to have a lot of trouble getting out of our own way.
Very tough game for them indeed

And if they are on with the scheif line it is a bad scene haha

 

[Buffdog]

The Fancy stats do not, in fact, say so. The only way someone could rate Montreal's forward lines as better than the corresponding Jets lines would be through the Goggles of Fan Delusion.

The Habs top line does have a better 5v5 GF% than CSV (not that that is an "advanced stat" - but again, it was the one largely used last year as what a top line should be winning regularly)

 

[Howard Chuck]

Stan has to be in the press box down the stretch and come playoff time.
Anyone who thinks he is good to go as our 5 or 6 D has been fooled.
He painfully struggles against speed, high skill and snap decisions.

I was thinking last night that the coach can’t really believe that he will handle the speed of playoffs. He made so many unforced errors last night that left me shaking my head. Lost races to the puck, lost battles on the boards, gave the puck away. Even his ‘strength’ was nonexistent as he was manhandled last night.

We have better options to groom before playoffs.

 

[johnnyonthspot]

He's probably a nominee at the end of the season but it's Spencer Carberry's award to lose right now.

You are probably right and the award can be a jinx but Arniel is doing a great job implementing the Bowness plan