Jets 2 - Kraken 1

[Mortimer Snerd]

I really make sure I just enjoy this ride because it’s fleeting in sports.

Having said that, it’s human nature to look at ways to improve even further. Every improvement will get us closer to the Stanley Cup.

Exactly. Enjoy this regular season. It is the best one Jets have had since the Aavco Cup winning days. It may well be a once in a lifetime season for Jets fans. The PO will be a whole other season. I hope it will be as good, but if not this regular season will not be diminished.

That doesn't mean we can't ponder changes, improvements, the wisdom of rentals, etc.

 

[Buffdog]

Oh come on. Connor and Scheif together have been a problem for years until they turned it around this year. How many years? As many as they have been together. And both of them were consistently better when they played apart. Numbers, eye-test, every way you could look at it. Was Arniel right? In the end yes, and I suspect he had something to do with the change since the problem had existed for so long under so many other coaches.

I don't know how he did it but I am glad he did. That has freed him up to do other things with other lines. Obviously we have to give Scheif and Connor credit too.

None of that means that those of us calling for a change for years were wrong. It means that the problem was fixed another way. Not that it didn't exist.

What if they would have separated Schief and Connor last year... and this year, Ehlers and Schief would be inferior to what Connor andSchief have become

Making a change for the sake of making a change doesn't always pay off in the long run

So far I think one poster has had the balls to say "I was wrong" about Connor and Schief being kept together long enough to get this result

 

[Adam da bomb]

What if they would have separated Schief and Connor last year... and this year, Ehlers and Schief would be inferior to what Connor andSchief have become

Making a change for the sake of making a change doesn't always pay off in the long run

So far I think one poster has had the balls to say "I was wrong" about Connor and Schief being kept together long enough to get this result

We can never really know what ifs. All we know is what the current situation is which is the csv looks great.

 

[Gm0ney]

What if they would have separated Schief and Connor last year... and this year, Ehlers and Schief would be inferior to what Connor andSchief have become

Making a change for the sake of making a change doesn't always pay off in the long run

So far I think one poster has had the balls to say "I was wrong" about Connor and Schief being kept together long enough to get this result

Scheifele and Connor this year are still not as good as Scheifele and Ehlers were last year, so what are you hypothetically worried about?

Attempting to optimize your lines is not making a change for the sake of making a change. It's making a change for the sake of making the team better.

And wrong about what, exactly? Like what's the confession of sin here? "Oh, gee, I guess those 3 or 4 years of Scheifele and Connor together just breaking even on goals and getting swamped in the metrics and analytics was all worth it because they've been really clicking for a couple of months now!"

 

[AtomicJets]

Scheifele and Connor this year are still not as good as Scheifele and Ehlers were last year

This is straight up delusional

 

[Jack7222]

What if they would have separated Schief and Connor last year... and this year, Ehlers and Schief would be inferior to what Connor andSchief have become

Making a change for the sake of making a change doesn't always pay off in the long run

So far I think one poster has had the balls to say "I was wrong" about Connor and Schief being kept together long enough to get this result

How do you know who is right or wrong? Isn't however they're playing in 2029 going to determine who is right or wrong about the line right now? Since that's apparently how that works...

 

[KingBogo]

Your point is that despite how good we are there is room to improve. Of course that is true. It is always true.

I don't think the problem last year was that we weren't good enough for the Avs in the PO. It was that the Avs got us away from our game. We were not good enough to beat them at their game. Come PO again and the same will happen, regardless of who we play, if they manage to get us playing their game instead of ours.

If we acquire the players you want they need to fit the team that we have and they need to be more effective than the players they will displace. It doesn't always work out that way. The team right now is in a good space. I don't want to mess with that carelessly.

So what is your argument on why Scheifele and Connor didn't work together? Because it is not entirely true. They have always scored a lot playing together (including 5 on 5). The 2 of them have consistently been among the teams top 3 point getters every season since 18-19, more often than not they have been 1 -2 in team scoring. Going back over the last 5 seasons prior to this one, together their 5 on 5 GF% has been in the 47% - 51% range. So they score a lot, but historically they also gave up a lot. So there lies the problem IMO.

Most coaches seemed to have been content with a relative saw off with the other teams top lines, in the hopes they can clean up their defense. IMO what we are seeing this season, is Arniel has them playing a more conservative defensive game in both ends of the ice where their positioning is above the puck. In the offensive zone they are leaving the zone in a more structured why rather than chasing from behind. Defensively Connor is playing lower in the zone in a more preventative structure and they are not leaving the defensive zone until they have secured possession, usually with a high zone pass to secure possession and back off the defense. The net result is they are not only getting scored on less, they have also been scoring at the same consistently high rate.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Scheifele and Connor this year are still not as good as Scheifele and Ehlers were last year, so what are you hypothetically worried about?

Attempting to optimize your lines is not making a change for the sake of making a change. It's making a change for the sake of making the team better.

And wrong about what, exactly? Like what's the confession of sin here? "Oh, gee, I guess those 3 or 4 years of Scheifele and Connor together just breaking even on goals and getting swamped in the metrics and analytics was all worth it because they've been really clicking for a couple of months now!"

That was a good time for the jets. Our 4th line scored a lot more during those 44 games.
Our d was healthy. And Stan would never have been in top 4. Schmidt probably had better numbers than Heinola or miller and Berg was a lot better than Stan on bottom pairing.

 

[Flair Hay]

This is straight up delusional

Its not according to the numbers.

In the offseason this discussion was based off more time spent together with ESV than CSV.

Now that CSV has spent more time together than both those lines last year combined, they have improved a ton in their GF% and also the shot metrics and expected goals.

That said...

Last year ESV
71 GF%
57 xGF%
55 SA%

This year CSV
56 GF%
54 xGF%
49 %SA%

Its not delusional at all, he is right... the difference in everyone's production is PP going from trash to treasure.

CSV made a huge jump. Unfortunately as they did the Ehlers line fell apart 5v5 compared to last year

 

[Buffdog]

Its not according to the numbers.

In the offseason this discussion was based off more time spent together with ESV than CSV.

Now that CSV has spent more time together than both those lines last year combined, they have improved a ton in their GF% and also the shot metrics and expected goals.

That said...

Last year ESV
71 GF%
57 xGF%
55 SA%

This year CSV
56 GF%
54 xGF%
49 %SA%

Its not delusional at all, he is right... the difference in everyone's production is PP going from trash to treasure.

CSV made a huge jump. Unfortunately as they did the Ehlers line fell apart 5v5 compared to last year

What are the sample sizes?

 

[Adam da bomb]

Its not according to the numbers.

In the offseason this discussion was based off more time spent together with ESV than CSV.

Now that CSV has spent more time together than both those lines last year combined, they have improved a ton in their GF% and also the shot metrics and expected goals.

That said...

Last year ESV
71 GF%
57 xGF%
55 SA%

This year CSV
56 GF%
54 xGF%
49 %SA%

Its not delusional at all, he is right... the difference in everyone's production is PP going from trash to treasure.

CSV made a huge jump. Unfortunately as they did the Ehlers line fell apart 5v5 compared to last year

Is the numbers affected by team having better d last year? As in terms of total numbers Schief is having a career year as is Villardi. We also know kc has a lot more pts in those 44 games than ehlers.

 

[Buffdog]

Scheifele and Connor this year are still not as good as Scheifele and Ehlers were last year, so what are you hypothetically worried about?

Attempting to optimize your lines is not making a change for the sake of making a change. It's making a change for the sake of making the team better.

And wrong about what, exactly? Like what's the confession of sin here? "Oh, gee, I guess those 3 or 4 years of Scheifele and Connor together just breaking even on goals and getting swamped in the metrics and analytics was all worth it because they've been really clicking for a couple of months now!"

That's the thing. You guys didn't want to optimize lines. You wanted to optimize A line, while the team wanted to optimize 4 lines

Re bottom paragraph: yes

 

[gojetsgo]

csv had a slow ass start to the season, what would the numbers look liked if you took out the 1st 9 games of the season compared to esv last season?

 

[Flair Hay]

What are the sample sizes?

Fair point. I was responding to the assertion it was "delusional" to say something that looks completely accurate.

200 mins vs 600 mins to answer the question. That's only this year for CSV.

 

[Flair Hay]

csv had a slow ass start to the season, what would the numbers look liked if you took out the 1st 9 games of the season compared to esv last season?

Now thats a slippery slope... but to answer the question it would likely look much more even stats wise. Not sure how to find that.

That's the thing. You guys didn't want to optimize lines. You wanted to optimize A line, while the team wanted to optimize 4 lines

Re bottom paragraph: yes

This is definitely a 100% mischaracterization. Horrible to say this, everyone wants the same result of optimizing all 4 lines.

The effect of Ehlers-Scheifele and Connor-Scheifele on that was the key issue to how we would go about doing that.

 

[DRW204]

Now thats a slippery slope... but to answer the question it would likely look much more even stats wise. Not sure how to find that.


This is definitely a 100% mischaracterization. Horrible to say this, everyone wants the same result of optimizing all 4 lines.

The effect of Ehlers-Scheifele and Connor-Scheifele on that was the key issue to how we would go about doing that.

Last year the top 6 rated better in net goals with Ehlers on the top line. Whatever differences occurred with the 2nd line was more than made up with X/Scheifele/Ehlers

This year there's more of an argument that the top line for a large part of the year was the only one that was optimized. Last 20-25 games the other three lines have been struggling to score.

 

[gojetsgo]

Now thats a slippery slope... but to answer the question it would likely look much more even stats wise. Not sure how to find that.

not really a slippery slope, just added context... they had a horrible start but for majority of the season they have played great and even if you take those 9 games away it would still be nearly double the sample size that esv played

 

[scelaton]

not really a slippery slope, just added context... they had a horrible start but for majority of the season they have played great and even if you take those 9 games away it would still be nearly double the sample size that esv played

I just removed the worst 9 days of the stock market from my portfolio performance over the past year and realized I am actually quite a bit richer, contextually speaking.

 

[Buffdog]

not really a slippery slope, just added context... they had a horrible start but for majority of the season they have played great and even if you take those 9 games away it would still be nearly double the sample size that esv played

And ESV was reunited towards the send of the season last year and they were compete dogshit. People forget that part...

They look at the one hot stretch of about 13 games last season and hang their hat on that. Even towards the end of that hot stretch they petered out, resulting in the line being taken apart

At the end of the day, causal fans only have a hammer (line combos) so every stretch of poor play is a nail to them

Team is underperforming? Change up the lines. A player is underperforming? Put them on a new line

How a team plays (both the system and how well the players buy into the system) >>>>>>>>> who plays together

 

[AtomicJets]

Fair point. I was responding to the assertion it was "delusional" to say something that looks completely accurate.

200 mins vs 600 mins to answer the question. That's only this year for CSV.

Yes 200 mins during the softest stretch in the Jets schedule last season where they played 12 out of 16 games against non-playoff opponents. When they actually played against a good team in Tampa Bay, ESV got blown out 16-1 in shots. PDO for that line during this stretch was quite high at 1.069 on the back of a .943 save percentage (see: soft schedule).

I have no issue with using numbers to learn more about players. It's a great starting point. But too many people misinterpret numbers either through recklessness or intentionally in order to prove a point and win an argument. If you want to really learn what's going on, you have to go deeper in the numbers and, most importantly, watch the games to verify what the numbers seem to be saying.

 

[DRW204]

Now thats a slippery slope... but to answer the question it would likely look much more even stats wise. Not sure how to find that.


This is definitely a 100% mischaracterization. Horrible to say this, everyone wants the same result of optimizing all 4 lines.

The effect of Ehlers-Scheifele and Connor-Scheifele on that was the key issue to how we would go about doing that.

It's fine to say someone started slow but they've been playing better recently. You can't just remove it for sure, but may not be as representative as recent games stats.
The inverse for the Jets season, they wear that 15-1 tremendous start and its reflected in their full season record, but they went through a similarly sized stretch when they were mid which was closer to their current/recent play.

The Lowry and Namestnikov lines had similar trends... Their last 20+ games were bad for scoring and full-year stats looked good bc of the start.

 

[Flair Hay]

Is the numbers affected by team having better d last year? As in terms of total numbers Schief is having a career year as is Villardi. We also know kc has a lot more pts in those 44 games than ehlers.

Not sure exactly what you are asking in the first sentence.

The power play is awesome instead of shit so all 4 guys are having a career year in large part because of that.

Also, Connor has stepped up the 5v5 scoring big time. He is leading the team in that stat (pts/60). Obviously a super encouraging sign.

Ehlers had lead in this department each year since before Covid. But he has dropped off by 20% and Connor improved by 20% from their averages over last 5 years.

TLDR
Connor - more 5v5 efficiency, more PP eff
Scheifele - same 5v5 eff, more PP eff
Vilardi - slightly less 5v5 eff, more PP eff
Ehlers - less 5v5 eff, more PP eff

It's fine to say someone started slow but they've been playing better recently. You can't just remove it for sure, but may not be as representative as recent games stats.
The inverse for the Jets season, they wear that 15-1 tremendous start and its reflected in their full season record, but they went through a similarly sized stretch when they were mid which was closer to their current/recent play.

The Lowry and Namestnikov lines had similar trends... Their last 20+ games were bad for scoring and full-year stats looked good bc of the start.

Yeah it's not unfair to get rid of the beginning of the season the further and further away it gets. Just gotta be careful throwing out the bad and keeping the good. But you know that, it's all good.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Not sure exactly what you are asking in the first sentence.

The power play is awesome instead of shit so all 4 guys are having a career year in large part because of that.

Also, Connor has stepped up the 5v5 scoring big time. He is leading the team in that stat (pts/60). Obviously a super encouraging sign.

Ehlers had lead in this department each year since before Covid. But he has dropped off by 20% and Connor improved by 20% from their averages over last 5 years.

TLDR
Connor - more 5v5 efficiency, more PP eff
Scheifele - same 5v5 eff, more PP eff
Vilardi - slightly less 5v5 eff, more PP eff
Ehlers - less 5v5 eff, more PP eff


Yeah it's not unfair to get rid of the beginning of the season the further and further away it gets. Just gotta be careful throwing out the bad and keeping the good. But you know that, it's all good.

I’m asking that everyone’s numbers should be better even strength when you have legit d back there boosting everyone’s numbers. The team gets scored on less if you have Dillion back vs Stan.
But that would make less sense as the numbers for first 9 games when Berg was healthy were worse than later on.