Player Discussion Jesper Boqvist

[Dr Quincy]

There are 7 players from that draft who have played less than 20 NHL games. Beecher was 30/31 in the first round.

Picks 28,29,30 and 31 have played a grand total of 1 NHL game.

I think Beecher having not arrived yet is more the rule than the exception at least if you’re looking at the 2019 draft.

But go back to 2018 and 2017 drafts and it’s a bit of a different story, no one’s blown the roof off but more late picks have had some success.

All that said, it’s fair to expect significantly more of the kid this year and next. Opportunity doesn’t last forever.

I don't want to completely derail this thread, and I can pm you my argument with examples, numbers, player comps etc... but I'll just say this:

It's not just about who has made the NHL and who hasn't. You have to compare more than just that.

The bettter questions are: Who has progressed since being drafted? How have they compared to their cohort at each stage? How have they handled step ups in league (jr to ncaa to ahl or euro jr to euro mens to ncaa).

Beecher
DY USHL .74 ppg
D+1 NCAA .52 ppg
D+2 NCAA .5 ppg
D+3 NCAA .44 ppg
D+4 AHL .38 ppg

Every year, whether going up a level or staying at the same level, his offensive production decreased. I know the explanations and excuses given for this. But if you are going to be an NHL player, you have to outproduce the Eric Ciccolinis of the world, even if you aren't going to outproduce the Kent Johnsons and Matty Beniers.

 

[BlackFrancis]

There are lots of good articles out there about it, but this was from an article on the NHL site:

SPSV% (PDO)
"Puck luck" is a term that's used with ambiguity in hockey, but by adding on-ice shooting percentage and on-ice save percentage (SPSV%, also known as PDO) it gives us a statistic that measures that concept. The idea was developed by Brian King, who began using it in comments on Barnes' blog under the username PDO.

It should be noted, things like PDO actually make a lot of sense over large samples and can clearly mark where regressions are likely to occur, as luck normalizes over time. PDO over a seven game series tells you very little about luck. It can't tell you the Bruins luck crapped out with less than five minutes left in game #81 vs the Caps.

Not entirely sure PDO tells me how much luckier Linus Ullmark's saves were this past regular season when compared to the 2022 vintage Igor Shortystilskin, rather than one team having a far superior backup goaltender.

PDO is a very simple, very accurate metric, but there's "puck luck" and there's getting three of your top five players injured the last couple weeks of the season.

 

[NDiesel]

*sigh* This is what Don Sweeney's wasting his money on? More top 9 to bottom 6 fodder? What's the point of having prospects if the Bruins are just gonna block every opportunity for them to play? The player has some upside I guess, but Boqvist's essentially what Frederic should be given where the Bruins drafted T-Fred. Like...what's the point? If this is to replace T-Fred and move Frederic on for picks and prospects, then fine. I will accept it. If this is just to give T-Fred a new line mate then boo this move. Boo.

I dont think I have ever seen a positive post from you

 

[EvilDead]

I dont think I have ever seen a positive post from you

It's hard to be positive when the front office gives you no reason to be happy as a fan. The last thing I was happy about with this team was them being able to hold onto Pastrnak. Now I don't know if he'll want to stay if the front office continues to make bad roster building decisions.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

I dont think I have ever seen a positive post from you

I find that refreshing.

 

[22Brad Park]

It's hard to be positive when the front office gives you no reason to be happy as a fan. The last thing I was happy about with this team was them being able to hold onto Pastrnak. Now I don't know if he'll want to stay if the front office continues to make bad roster building decisions.

They just set the all time regular season pts record and went all in to have chance to win Cup.Yea they lost but that's the way sports goes.This year is a bridge year but they will not stink.The puck has not even dropped so relax and take a deep breathe.

 

[ON3M4N]

It should be noted, things like PDO actually make a lot of sense over large samples and can clearly mark where regressions are likely to occur, as luck normalizes over time. PDO over a seven game series tells you very little about luck. It can't tell you the Bruins luck crapped out with less than five minutes left in game #81 vs the Caps.

Not entirely sure PDO tells me how much luckier Linus Ullmark's saves were this past regular season when compared to the 2022 vintage Igor Shortystilskin, rather than one team having a far superior backup goaltender.

PDO is a very simple, very accurate metric, but there's "puck luck" and there's getting three of your top five players injured the last couple weeks of the season.

To each their own.

 

[HumBucker]

There are lots of good articles out there about it, but this was from an article on the NHL site:

SPSV% (PDO)
"Puck luck" is a term that's used with ambiguity in hockey, but by adding on-ice shooting percentage and on-ice save percentage (SPSV%, also known as PDO) it gives us a statistic that measures that concept. The idea was developed by Brian King, who began using it in comments on Barnes' blog under the username PDO.

To me, this is where stats jump the shark. Shooting % and save % have as much to do with skills and abilities as anything else, if not more so. Besides, there's more to "luck" in the game than simply these two stats measure. "Puck luck" has as much to do with all other plays on the ice, fortunate bounces, weird caroms, etc. I don't believe PDO is a valid measure of "luck" any more than any other stat. Isn't +/- also a measure of luck?

Luck, itself, as a concept is even debatable. It's just chance, randomness. If a player's shot goes off the post and in, who's "luck" is that? Is it the shooter's good luck or the goalie's bad luck? How do you measure that? Was the shooter a skilled marksmen with the puck, or was the goalie just too slow with his reaction, tracking, etc.

To suggest the team that had the most successful regular season in NHL history benefitted from more than usual "luck" is nonsensical. Can one not make the same claim for any President's Trophy winner or Cup winner for that matter. And by extension, was the last place team the most unlucky? What if the last place team actually benefitted from a lot of luck, but they just sucked and would have finished even lower in the standings, were it not for all the "luck" they experienced. "Puck luck" more than likely evens out over the course of 82 games. This is how probability and randomness work.

 

[Gee Wally]

Please back to topic.

 

[Gordon Lightfoot]

Reading some comments from NJD fans on what he brings, he sounds kind of like Danton Heinen

There is not enough popcorn in the world

 

[ON3M4N]

To me, this is where stats jump the shark. Shooting % and save % have as much to do with skills and abilities as anything else, if not more so. Besides, there's more to "luck" in the game than simply these two stats measure. "Puck luck" has as much to do with all other plays on the ice, fortunate bounces, weird caroms, etc. I don't believe PDO is a valid measure of "luck" any more than any other stat. Isn't +/- also a measure of luck?

Luck, itself, as a concept is even debatable. It's just chance, randomness. If a player's shot goes off the post and in, who's "luck" is that? Is it the shooter's good luck or the goalie's bad luck? How do you measure that? Was the shooter a skilled marksmen with the puck, or was the goalie just too slow with his reaction, tracking, etc.

To suggest the team that had the most successful regular season in NHL history benefitted from more than usual "luck" is nonsensical. Can one not make the same claim for any President's Trophy winner or Cup winner for that matter. And by extension, was the last place team the most unlucky? What if the last place team actually benefitted from a lot of luck, but they just sucked and would have finished even lower in the standings, were it not for all the "luck" they experienced. "Puck luck" more than likely evens out over the course of 82 games. This is how probability and randomness work.

We could sit here and keep going back and fourth but it sounds like you don't like the concept of the stat and that's fine, to each their own. Its probably not worth either of our time to continue this conversation as it'll lead nowhere.

 

[UncleRico]

Did something happen between his Selkie win and now that makes you think he can't play in the NHL effectively anymore?

Herniated disk in his back is the only thing I can think they’d be referring to

 

[TCB]

Jesper went 36 in the 2017 draft, he is now one of 21 players who has been since moved, who were drafted in the first 36 selections.

 

[Raleighfern]

I've liked this kid each time ive seen him.. He's on the puck and plays a sound positional game, he's cheap.

 

[KillerMillerTime]

Did something happen between his Selkie win and now that makes you think he can't play in the NHL effectively anymore?

Yeah, a herniated disc. I got one in my mid 30's. He absolutely will take a hit in his effectiveness.

 

[KillerMillerTime]

I think it's more of a commentary on their drafting and the player's skill sets they deemed to be worthy of using a first rounder on. Not looking so hot at this point and I never held out much hope on him to start with since he was always more of a complimentary style player than a can't miss prospect. Doesn't mean he doesn't have a shot or value, just that he's got a lot of work to do to be ready for prime time.

I watched him in the World Junior Summer Showcase in Plymouth, Michigan. He was the talk of that Showcase early on. He made the US WJC team as an 18 year old and while not having a good tourney showed some glimpses with good zone exit and entry # and was decent on FO. He made the team that won Gold the next year but couldn't play. Usually players that make the US Team 2 years in a row don't bust, so we'll see what happens.

Think going to Michigan was the worst decision he made. Was buried behind some elite talent.

 

[KillerMillerTime]

When was it brutal to watch? They went 37-8-1 after the break.

The games late in the year at Chicago and Detroit were the ugliest of the year.

 

[KillerMillerTime]

Beat Pittsburgh 6-5 in OT on November 1.

Bruins came back from 5-2 down. Lindholm assists on the 3 goals that tied it and then scored the OT goal.

Pretty much the only "how the hell did we pull that game out" I could find.

The game at Calgary was A #1 on that list. The Pittsburgh game they even had a Bergeron goal called back, so that ranks behind the Calgary win.

 

[KillerMillerTime]

They just set the all time regular season pts record and went all in to have chance to win Cup.Yea they lost but that's the way sports goes.This year is a bridge year but they will not stink.The puck has not even dropped so relax and take a deep breathe.

Its clearly how they lost that rankles a bunch of people. We all know the story but
its how they lost.

 

[LSCII]

I watched him in the World Junior Summer Showcase in Plymouth, Michigan. He was the talk of that Showcase early on. He made the US WJC team as an 18 year old and while not having a good tourney showed some glimpses with good zone exit and entry # and was decent on FO. He made the team that won Gold the next year but couldn't play. Usually players that make the US Team 2 years in a row don't bust, so we'll see what happens.

Think going to Michigan was the worst decision he made. Was buried behind some elite talent.

I don’t follow Providence nearly as close as I used to. Maybe some folks that do can offer insight into how he’s looked and what role he’s been used in? I’ve heard he hasn’t looked good but would love to hear more from folks that have seen him down there.

 

[WhalerTurnedBruin55]

Reading some comments from NJD fans on what he brings, he sounds kind of like Danton Heinen

He's surely gonna be loved by some here, I can see it now.

 

[ON3M4N]

He's surely gonna be loved by some here, I can see it now.

He'll be a new whipping boy for others.

 

[BruinDust]

I watched him in the World Junior Summer Showcase in Plymouth, Michigan. He was the talk of that Showcase early on. He made the US WJC team as an 18 year old and while not having a good tourney showed some glimpses with good zone exit and entry # and was decent on FO. He made the team that won Gold the next year but couldn't play. Usually players that make the US Team 2 years in a row don't bust, so we'll see what happens.

Think going to Michigan was the worst decision he made. Was buried behind some elite talent.

I remember watching Beecher at the 2020 WJC and I swear every time he touched the puck he just skated himself into trouble. I thought his hockey sense was very questionable and here 3 1/2 years later I think that has come to light.

They drafted him because he was a big guy with high-end skating ability. He looked great. He was always going to be a project. Can he process the game fast enough for the NHL? That remains to be seen.

 

[neelynugs]

came for jesper boqvist and i got johnny beecher. good times.

i don't see the heinen comps personally. boqvist has elite speed, he reminds me more
of a young marcus johansson. devils didn't do him any favors - wing, center, in the lineup,
out of the lineup. seems like a smart player with good details that was underutilized in
new jersey.

 

[KillerMillerTime]

I remember watching Beecher at the 2020 WJC and I swear every time he touched the puck he just skated himself into trouble. I thought his hockey sense was very questionable and here 3 1/2 years later I think that has come to light.

They drafted him because he was a big guy with high-end skating ability. He looked great. He was always going to be a project. Can he process the game fast enough for the NHL? That remains to be seen.

Like I said he wasn't good, but his zone entries and exits #'s were absolutely in top 6
US F. There was a chart that measured their games and those were the only two
performance stats that were top 6 amongst forwards. Against Canada he went coast stop coast once and had another good rush that game. His FO were ok.

He was a 18 year old also and its not unusual for 1st Round picks to perform pedestrian.