MarchysNoseKnows
Big Hat No Cattle
- Feb 14, 2018
- 9,404
- 18,662
Which camp are you in if you think the right numbers for Swayman are 8x$8M-$8.25M or 4x$7M-$7.5M?The "credentials" argument is never going to be resolved here. There are 2 different philosophies about paying players:
1)Pay players for what they've done thus far in their careers- The rationale for this is you are paying a player for their actual demonstrated (and possible sustained) level of performance. The downside/risk is that you are paying a player for performance already gone and not necessarily for what they are going to do while under that new contract.
2) Pay players for what you think they are going to do under that new contract- The rationale is that you don't want to pay a player for what they've done in the past, but rather what they'll be. Locking a young player long term while "overpaying" in the first couple years is that you trust this player is going to outperform their contract and you won't have to worry about the UFA years when the price would be even higher. The risk is the player doesn't turn out to be what you think he is.
Teams in the past have typically gone for #1. This means you usually "win" on most of your contracts on young players and RFAs, but lose on older players and UFAs, because they are either no longer worth the $ as soon as they sign that contract and almost never going forward.
Many teams are now moving towards #2. See the recent contracts of Dylan Guenther and Seth Jarvis. Teams are betting on guys they've identified as cornerstone pieces and locking them up. It means they might be overpaying for the 1st couple years but will potentially have bargains as they get to what would have been the 3rd contract.
There's lots of issues I have with the people arguing for the #1 type philosophy but there's one main issue I have with it in regards to Swayman, and it's this:
The huge majority of people now saying Swayman hasn't proven anything and doesn't "deserve" to be paid like a top 5 goalie are the same people who all during the season were talking about Swayman being a top 5 goalie and an untouchable player on the team. They were all for trading a vezina winning Ullmark in order to clear the way for Sway. There was almost no talk of "Well maybe we shouldn't... maybe Sway can't handle a 60 game load.
I'd just like to imagine this scenario- All goalies in the NHL are miraculously made UFAs. Name all of the goalies you'd take ahead of Swayman to be your goalie for the next 8 years.
