Player Discussion Jeremy Swayman -neither elect arbitration (page 16)

[BiteThisBurrows]

What has Sorokin done?

Those two contracts are way bigger risks than Swayman because of the ages they get into. I'll take the guy in his prime every single time.

You say not as proven. Swayman says I'm giving up more of my prime on a sharply rising cap.

A recipe for failure is screwing around with arguably the best homegrown goalie this franchise has had in the modern era.

That's why I'm giving him 7 easily. If he thinks it eats up too much of his prime shorter term is acceptable to me then he can earn even more if he wants. I'd think the security would matter as things happen but if he's arrogant and cocky let's go with 3-4 years and then see.

I think locking him up with a higher number is a a big risk. If he isn't superstar we are well and truly f'd.

The cap is going to continue to increase, especially with Arizona gone and Utah looking like a good market, 8 to 9M in 5 or 6 years will be a steal for a top 5 goalie.

Maybe, maybe not. It's always like that though. I'm not sure he's top 5. He might be, but right now I'd say top 10.

 

[Gee Wally]

Well no matter what the number is this place will go nuts.
Hopefully next week while Im gone.

 

[BruinDust]

That's why I'm giving him 7 easily. If he thinks it eats up too much of his prime shorter term is acceptable to me then he can earn even more if he wants. I'd think the security would matter as things happen but if he's arrogant and cocky let's go with 3-4 years and then see.

I think locking him up with a higher number is a a big risk. If he isn't superstar we are well and truly f'd.


Maybe, maybe not. It's always like that though. I'm not sure he's top 5. He might be, but right now I'd say top 10.

History says the risk of locking a player up for the prime years of their career is extremely low and has rarely come back to hurt the team. In the salary cap era, the vast majority of players who've signed long-term contracts through their prime years has always ended up a great deal for the team. It boils down to do they believe and know the player. IMO Swayman is the real deal. I've seen enough that I would make the long-term commitment without any hesitation.

Is 8 million even superstar money when we'll soon see guys making 14-15 million? Even if he's only very good and not great, it's probably 5-8% of the cap in a few years and still good value.

Well no matter what the number is this place will go nuts.
Hopefully next week while Im gone.

Remember the good old days when fans were just happy their team re-signed their star players?

 

[BiteThisBurrows]

History says the risk of locking a player up for the prime years of their career is extremely low and has rarely come back to hurt the team. In the salary cap era, the vast majority of players who've signed long-term contracts through their prime years has always ended up a great deal for the team. It boils down to do they believe and know the player. IMO Swayman is the real deal. I've seen enough that I would make the long-term commitment without any hesitation.

Is 8 million even superstar money when we'll soon see guys making 14-15 million? Even if he's only very good and not great, it's probably 5-8% of the cap in a few years and still good value.



Remember the good old days when fans were just happy their team re-signed their star players?

Well this is off season debate fodder for sure, and let me stress from the outset I like Swayman and I hope he is signed. I think it should be 7x7 but if the Bruins decide more I won't lose any sleep.

Now for the sake of typing words in my boring summer, to your comment, consider John Gibson. When signed for term and money he looked like a top notch goalie. Now he's one of the worst albatross contracts in the league. At the time of signing his 6 million was not unlike the 8 you're talking about now.

Campbell, Grubauer and (now our own) Korpisalo as other goalies who looked solid and worth their term and number but who dropped right off a cliff. Goalies are weird.

If you consider other positions there are other examples. Look at Huberdeau. Massive overpay and term for a player who was supposed to be in his prime. Seth Jones. Johnny Gaudreau. There are lots of bad contracts out there with long terms on them. Goalies are among the most erratic and unpredictable players out there. The riskiest for long term deals. If we had a full season of Swayman without Ullmark I'd be far more confidant in the bigger number, and an 8 number might pay off, but I still say it's a huge risk to go that high.

 

[Gonzothe7thDman]

Bruins must be 100% sure Swayman is their guy if they dealt Ullmark and have Korpisalo as plan B.

If they sign him short term because they messed up the negotiations/cap or they still aren't sure he's the #1 of the future I am going to tweet negatively.

 

[Dizzay]

If he was a UFA this year what do you think he’d get as a contract?

Lotta stupid GM's out there who are desperate for goaltending. Take a look at Matt Murray's deal, Jack Campbell etc.

I think Swayman is a very good goalie. If I had an employee who was young, worked part time, but had a really solid fall from a results standpoint, I dont offer he/she an 8 year contract worth 8x what he/she are getting today, based on a small(ish) sample size.

5x6.5 is a very fair contract for Swayman. Front load it with bonus money to protect against the possibility of a lockout. 32.5 million dollars is a lot of money for a kid who's a 4th rounder, 111th overall from Alaska. He's 30 when he signs his final deal which is when the 8-9-10 million for 4-5 years kicks in and he nets 80-90 million for his playing career.

 

[EverettMike]

Lotta stupid GM's out there who are desperate for goaltending. Take a look at Matt Murray's deal, Jack Campbell etc.

I think Swayman is a very good goalie. If I had an employee who was young, worked part time, but had a really solid fall from a results standpoint, I dont offer he/she an 8 year contract worth 8x what he/she are getting today, based on a small(ish) sample size.

5x6.5 is a very fair contract for Swayman. Front load it with bonus money to protect against the possibility of a lockout. 32.5 million dollars is a lot of money for a kid who's a 4th rounder, 111th overall from Alaska. He's 30 when he signs his final deal which is when the 8-9-10 million for 4-5 years kicks in and he nets 80-90 million for his playing career.

This analogy is totally irrelevant, as is where he was drafted and where he's from.

 

[EverettMike]

That post has pissed me off so much I might start drinking.

 

[MarchysNoseKnows]

Lotta stupid GM's out there who are desperate for goaltending. Take a look at Matt Murray's deal, Jack Campbell etc.

I think Swayman is a very good goalie. If I had an employee who was young, worked part time, but had a really solid fall from a results standpoint, I dont offer he/she an 8 year contract worth 8x what he/she are getting today, based on a small(ish) sample size.

5x6.5 is a very fair contract for Swayman. Front load it with bonus money to protect against the possibility of a lockout. 32.5 million dollars is a lot of money for a kid who's a 4th rounder, 111th overall from Alaska. He's 30 when he signs his final deal which is when the 8-9-10 million for 4-5 years kicks in and he nets 80-90 million for his playing career.

This isn’t how it works. What’s the market value for the player? Can you convince him to take a little less? You can’t say “$32 million is a lot of money for someone who was drafted late” and Swayman’s camp says “Yeah, you’re right. I’ll take less because I was a fourth rounder”.

 

[Number8]

Look, I like Swayman as much as any of you but this is how a team get's itself in trouble, hw has not proven that he can handle a heavier load, although I think that he should be able to, he also has really put up the kind of numbe

As we are talking about goalies, here.......

Teams don't get into trouble by spending $1M-$2M too much on a young goalie in his prime that has delivered the goods.

They get into trouble by taking on a 4 year $3M ding for a guy that at this point is nothing more than a reclamation project.

What's the better bet? Swayman gets paid and continues to deliver great goaltending? Of Korpisalo gets $3M per and somehow returns to a form from 2019/20?

And, by the way, the reason we have the guy who's delivered a largely sub .900 SA over the past many seasons is we traded a recent Vezina winner for him. Same reason Swayman has a shit ton of leverage to get that extra $1M-$2M.

THAT is how teams get themselves into trouble.

A Korpisalo/Bussi tandem is more likely a lottery team tandem than not.

 

[BruinDust]

A Korpisalo/Bussi tandem is more likely a lottery team tandem than not.

I'm still traumatized from the legendary tandem of Steve Shields and Jeff Hackett. Seems like that is what a lot of fans want to go back to. Play hardball with the best homegrown goalie this franchise has seen in the modern era, drive him out the door and go back to cheap mediocrity. #Salarycap

 

[Hookslide]

Look, like every other player in the league, there's a price where you say "That's too much." But if the team wasn't sure about him being proven and potentially couldn't handle a heavier work load... then you don't trade away a $5m Vezina winner for a $3m poor backup.

Any hesitation on Swayman should've been considered and if there was any, you ride out Ullmark for 1 more year. Clearly they were very focused on trading Ullmark, so I'm guessing they are 100% sold on Swayman.

You are right trading Ullmark, before you were sure you could sign Swayman, I would say was incompetence on management, I also think that management has not taken into account that Swayman's agent gets the most for his client, as he should, but that does not mean the Bruins should agree to a contract that saves face after the Ullmark trade, and also hurting this team cap wise.

 

[dugg133]

Swayman's situation is kinda shockingly similar to Tuukka's prior to him signing his big deal in the 2013 summer.

Tuukka prior to signing his contract : 126 starts, .927 SV%, 2.15 GAA, 59.6 GSAA. Career high starts was 39. Entering age 26 season.

Swayman prior to this offseason: 125 starts, .919 SV%, 2.34 GAA, 47.6 GSAA. Career high starts 43. Entering age 26 season

Both were arguably the best goalie in the playoffs prior to signing their deals, Tuukka took a more talented team to the finals though while Sway dragged a worse team to the 2nd round.

Tuukka's 8x7mil contract would be worth around 9.5mil AAV using the 10.89% cap% in year 1 of that deal in the current 88mil cap ceiling.

 

[Hookslide]

As we are talking about goalies, here.......

Teams don't get into trouble by spending $1M-$2M too much on a young goalie in his prime that has delivered the goods.

They get into trouble by taking on a 4 year $3M ding for a guy that at this point is nothing more than a reclamation project.

What's the better bet? Swayman gets paid and continues to deliver great goaltending? Of Korpisalo gets $3M per and somehow returns to a form from 2019/20?

And, by the way, the reason we have the guy who's delivered a largely sub .900 SA over the past many seasons is we traded a recent Vezina winner for him. Same reason Swayman has a shit ton of leverage to get that extra $1M-$2M.

THAT is how teams get themselves into trouble.

A Korpisalo/Bussi tandem is more likely a lottery team tandem than not.

I cannot dispute what you are pointing out, but this team again is up against the cap and are in a need for a goal scorer, you go back to when Krecji was minus a RW , for so many years and we have some temporary fixes like Iginla, but one line teams do not win cups, see Bergey, Marchand and Pasta. I now will throw gas on the fire, would you rather spend less on a center, so you could retain Swayman, I am not a fan of the Lindholm signing, that's my stand, and if we lose Sway because of the Lindholm signing I will be pissed,

 

[MarchysNoseKnows]

You are right trading Ullmark, before you were sure you could sign Swayman, I would say was incompetence on management, I also think that management has not taken into account that Swayman's agent gets the most for his client, as he should, but that does not mean the Bruins should agree to a contract that saves face after the Ullmark trade, and also hurting this team cap wise.

Again, you wait to trade Ullmark, and you can’t have the offseason you had, and you deal with a new no trade list.

And do you really think management doesn’t consider the motivations of agents? Who is trying to save face?

 

[BruinDust]

Swayman's situation is kinda shockingly similar to Tuukka's prior to him signing his big deal in the 2013 summer.

Tuukka prior to signing his contract : 126 starts, .927 SV%, 2.15 GAA, 59.6 GSAA. Career high starts was 39. Entering age 26 season.

Swayman prior to this offseason: 125 starts, .919 SV%, 2.34 GAA, 47.6 GSAA. Career high starts 43. Entering age 26 season

Both were arguably the best goalie in the playoffs prior to signing their deals, Tuukka took a more talented team to the finals though while Sway dragged a worse team to the 2nd round.

Tuukka's 8x7mil contract would be worth around 9.5mil AAV using the 10.89% cap% in year 1 of that deal in the current 88mil cap ceiling.

Good post.

 

[Hookslide]

History says the risk of locking a player up for the prime years of their career is extremely low and has rarely come back to hurt the team. In the salary cap era, the vast majority of players who've signed long-term contracts through their prime years has always ended up a great deal for the team. It boils down to do they believe and know the player. IMO Swayman is the real deal. I've seen enough that I would make the long-term commitment without any hesitation.

Is 8 million even superstar money when we'll soon see guys making 14-15 million? Even if he's only very good and not great, it's probably 5-8% of the cap in a few years and still good value.



Remember the good old days when fans were just happy their team re-signed their star players?

Salary cap era has changed all that in all sports.

 

[BruinDust]

Salary cap era has changed all that in all sports.

No shit. Now fans get all bent out of shape when the player isn't signed for what they think they should be. Endless debates over 500k per year.

7 years? Perfectly fine.

8 years? Oh hell no.

Although all sports is a stretch. Seems like these debates are specific to a hard salary cap system.

 

[Number8]

I'm still traumatized from the legendary tandem of Steve Shields and Jeff Hackett. Seems like that is what a lot of fans want to go back to. Play hardball with the best homegrown goalie this franchise has seen in the modern era, drive him out the door and go back to cheap mediocrity. #Salarycap

Agreed. Some around here are either too young or too old to remember some of the dark days of the 90's. Try as I might to shake the memory, I still sometimes wake up in a cold sweat dreaming that Blaine Lacher is going to suit up in 24/25.

 

[Gee Wally]

Agreed. Some around here are either too young or too old to remember some of the dark days of the 90's. Try as I might to shake the memory, I still sometimes wake up in a cold sweat dreaming that Blaine Lacher is going to suit up in 24/25.

We had a goalie revolving door. I for one dont want to go back to those days.

 

[Number8]

I cannot dispute what you are pointing out, but this team again is up against the cap and are in a need for a goal scorer, you go back to when Krecji was minus a RW , for so many years and we have some temporary fixes like Iginla, but one line teams do not win cups, see Bergey, Marchand and Pasta. I now will throw gas on the fire, would you rather spend less on a center, so you could retain Swayman, I am not a fan of the Lindholm signing, that's my stand, and if we lose Sway because of the Lindholm signing I will be pissed,

If we lose Swayman it won't be because we signed Lindholm. It will be because he wants $9M+.

And if he does:

1) Shame on Don Sweeney not knowing that before he traded Linus...... or.........
2) Shame on Don Sweeney for not anticipating that demand once he traded Linus.

Bottom line -- regardless of whether we had limited options or not, the Ullmark trade return sucked then and sucked now.

Two things are can save this:

1) Sweeney performs a miracle and gets Swayman on a fair deal for Boston.
2) Goalie Bob goes Houdini on his bad self and pulls the tire fire that is Korpisalo out of the ashes like a modern day phoenix.

 

[DominicT]

Two things are can save this:

1) Sweeney performs a miracle and gets Swayman on a fair deal for Boston.
2) Goalie Bob goes Houdini on his bad self and pulls the tire fire that is Korpisalo out of the ashes like a modern day phoenix.

I'm voting #2

 

[Number8]

I'm voting #2

I do truly hope Korpisalo rebounds. I don't like the trade, but he's a Bruin so lets get him going.

But I do worry a bit about your response, Dom. Am I reading too much into that?

Sway gets signed for a decent term of years, right? Please tell me he gets signed. Even if it isn't true!

 

[DominicT]

I do truly hope Korpisalo rebounds. I don't like the trade, but he's a Bruin so lets get him going.

But I do worry a bit about your response, Dom. Am I reading too much into that?

Sway gets signed for a decent term of years, right? Please tell me he gets signed. Even if it isn't true!

I have no doubt he gets signed. Question is when?

I'm looking at post Hlinka/Gretzky next month.

 

[Number8]

I have no doubt he gets signed. Question is when?

I'm looking at post Hlinka/Gretzky next month.

Thanks Dom. You've got me breathing again.

Combined with the fact that you think Korpisalo can be rebooted, I'm taking big deep breathes too!!!!!