Player Discussion Jeremy Swayman IV - even more nothing

[MarchysNoseKnows]

Thanks for the Math

 

[UncleRico]

Ok but that's the market.

No it’s not at all.

If Swayman signs for 4 years $6m AAV he will be tied for 8th highest paid goalie in the league.

Oettinger and shesterkin get paid next year. Then Demko the year after.

Swayman is not going to agree to a deal where the majority of the deal he is not a top 10 paid goalie.

 

[Eddie Munson]

Ya I’m not buying it.

You don't have to buy it but it doesn't make it any less of a fact.

All the comps place him closer to what Sweeney offered than what Swayman reportedly wants. I understand adding a "ya but you need me and you kind of did me dirty with arbitration because you rolled the dice and went for a cup in an insane record breaking year and didn't leave any cap for me" tax. So maybe 7m - 7.5m is a good compromise? But if he want's to "set the market" then he can eff all the way off. His resume just isn't there yet.

 

[Sheppy]

Guy just went for a 3rd and 5th at the most recent deadline and people are fine paying him very good money for a really long time because he had a good playoffs. Swayman had a very good playoff as well and really good young career so far but people are skeptical about locking him up. Zadorov and Korpisalo at 8mil combined is good use of the cap all of a sudden I wonder why?

I can probably count on my hand the people who like that we have Korpisalo making $3M

 

[DiggityDog]

Still think $8-8.5 is a fair landing spot for both. Disappointed it’s taken as long as it has, but not quite ready to jump off the bridge.

I believe they will find a landing spot. Also think the media has made this far more of circus than it probably is behind closed doors.

 

[Mad-Marcus]

Binky wars of 2024. Some people are fixated on the player, not the due process.
With Mr Burns running the team, they are not going to reset the market for goalies without a full top resume.
Now if Swayman had been a Vezina finalist and/or taken the B's to the Finals, on his back, a la Hasek,
break the bank.
He still has more to prove. As fantastic of a series as he played in FLA, it was a bad, bad goal that ended G7 OT. No Superman uni, under the street clothes, no top of market mullah(9-11M).

I love this kid and his attitude. If the B's won't go over 7M, then they're the A-holes. His worth is in between 7-8M for 4, this is a gift that gives him a bigger pay day, if he progresses.
If the B's want to eat those years till he's 32-33YO, they're going to have to pay more as they'd be shunting his earning power.

I think this is the best path forward for both,7.5Mx4 (worth and goodwill, a number I continue to come back to)

Goalies seem to be the NFL RB's of Pro Hockey, salary wise. Most do not get paid what QBs, WRs, DEs, and DBs get.

 

[UncleRico]

You don't have to buy it but it doesn't make it any less of a fact.

All the comps place him closer to what Sweeney offered than what Swayman reportedly wants. I understand adding a "ya but you need me and you kind of did me dirty with arbitration because you rolled the dice and went for a cup in an insane record breaking year and didn't leave any cap for me" tax. So maybe 7m - 7.5m is a good compromise? But if he want's to "set the market" then he call eff all the way off. His resume just isn't there yet.

Its not about whether AVP analytics suggested comparables are " facts". I'm saying whoever from that analytics team ran those numbers failed to use any form of common sense.

If Swayman signs for 4 years $6m AAV he will be tied for 8th highest paid goalie in the league. Oettinger and shesterkin get paid next year. Then Demko the year after.

A goalie coming off a top 5 in the league performance among all goalies last year is not about to sign a 4 year $6m AAV deal where for the majority of the deal he will be outside of the top 10 paid goalies.

 

[Yeti34]

Sweeney should’ve had all this figured out before moving Ullmark. If he wasn’t ready to spend 7-10 million on a long term deal with Sway he should’ve traded him and extended Ullmark.

 

[Mad-Marcus]

Rico, I'm on your side if the # is 6M. The top5 performance is disingenuous. He wasn't a #1. He had a great 1st half of the season and sputtered after AS game. If he hadn't, we may not be arguing about it, as he probably would have played more games.
He's a perceived lock, not a "in the real-world lock", yet.

 

[wintersej]

Ya I’m not buying it.

If swayman takes 4 years $6m that will have him tied for 8th among goalie salaries this season.

Shesterkin, Oettinger will kick him out of the top 10 next year and then guys like demko who come up in two years will push him even further down.

He’s not accepting a contract where the majority of it he’s not being paid as a top 10 goalie.

It's two RFA years and two UFA years... and then he would leap frog back to the top of the goalie pay scale again. He will certainly be making more than Shesterkin and Oettinger when he signs that new deal.

 

[Eddie Munson]

Its not about whether AVP analytics suggested comparables are " facts". I'm saying whoever from that analytics team ran those numbers failed to use any form of common sense.

If Swayman signs for 4 years $6m AAV he will be tied for 8th highest paid goalie in the league. Oettinger and shesterkin get paid next year. Then Demko the year after.

A goalie coming off a top 5 in the league performance among all goalies last year is not about to sign a 4 year $6m AAV deal where for the majority of the deal he will be outside of the top 10 paid goalies.

Saros did. His 20-21 season where he was 25 he put up exponentially better stats than Swayman, finished higher in Vezina voting and took a 4 year deal for 5m.

There's a litany of other similar examples. That's the point, Swayman is the exception not the rule. When GMs start handing out contracts that contradict precedent, it's typically when they get themselves in trouble. Hell, I think NYI are still paying Rick DiPietro. LOL

 

[4ORRBRUIN]

Sweeney should’ve had all this figured out before moving Ullmark. If he wasn’t ready to spend 7-10 million on a long term deal with Sway he should’ve traded him and extended Ullmark.

Again, what do you think the Bruins would get in a trade for an unproven goalie that thinks he's worth 8-10m a season?

That's a bet no GM in the NHL is going to make, not even the team that drafted him.

He will come in at around 7m a season, even that is a risk. If he plays lights out after a bridge deal while being a true number one then be prepared to pony up.

Until then let him sit.

 

[wintersej]

Its not about whether AVP analytics suggested comparables are " facts". I'm saying whoever from that analytics team ran those numbers failed to use any form of common sense.

If Swayman signs for 4 years $6m AAV he will be tied for 8th highest paid goalie in the league. Oettinger and shesterkin get paid next year. Then Demko the year after.

A goalie coming off a top 5 in the league performance among all goalies last year is not about to sign a 4 year $6m AAV deal where for the majority of the deal he will be outside of the top 10 paid goalies.

You aren't thinking this thru far enough.

At 4x6, yes, by the end of the deal he will have been leap frogged. And then... guess what...then he will do the leapfrogging. Unless someone signs one year deals there is always going to be this cycle.

Saros did. His 20-21 season where he was 25 he put up exponentially better stats than Swayman, finished higher in Vezina voting and took a 4 year deal for 5m.

There's a litany of other similar examples. That's the point, Swayman is the exception not the rule. When GMs start handing out contracts that contradict precedent, it's typically when they get themselves in trouble. Hell, I think NYI are still paying Rick DiPietro. LOL

It doesn't matter how many times this gets repeated... some people just don't comprehend. I dunno.

 

[LSCII]

You don't have to buy it but it doesn't make it any less of a fact.

All the comps place him closer to what Sweeney offered than what Swayman reportedly wants. I understand adding a "ya but you need me and you kind of did me dirty with arbitration because you rolled the dice and went for a cup in an insane record breaking year and didn't leave any cap for me" tax. So maybe 7m - 7.5m is a good compromise? But if he want's to "set the market" then he can eff all the way off. His resume just isn't there yet.

All the comps you prefer, while the comps he and his team prefer put him closer to the 10 mill mark. Which is why comps are bullshit. It's whatever is favorable to your claim and not what's actually fair. Sway isn't going to sign a deal with a $6mill AAV (and Boston isn't going to give him $10 mill per), so folks like yourself need to accept that reality. The Bruins know he's not going to do that either. It's laughable to expect him to devalue himself to that extent, in fact.

 

[Hookslide]

Idk there were dozens of free agent defensemen I’d take branstrom at $800k over peeke at $2.75 but that’s a conversation for a different thread.

What I’m saying is swayman is much more valuable than either of those guys and his contract will age much better than lindholms or zadorov. Yet no one is complaining about those deals.

I have been very open about signing Lindholm before he was signed, not a good signing, and Sway , I would like signed but not at the numbers being thrown around

 

[MarchysNoseKnows]

All the comps you prefer, while the comps he and his team prefer put him closer to the 10 mill mark. Which is why comps are bullshit. It's whatever is favorable to your claim and not what's actually fair. Sway isn't going to sign a deal with a $6mill AAV (and Boston isn't going to give him $10 mill per), so folks like yourself need to accept that reality. The Bruins know he's not going to do that either. It's laughable to expect him to devalue himself to that extent, in fact.

What possible comp would put him close to $10M?!?

 

[Dr Quincy]

Y

Number 6 says hi, Geekie and Freddy?

Save % is worthless in the playoffs unless they give out trophies for that now.

Yeah, Frederic's 1 assist in the last 5 games of the series and 6 total shots in 6 games were certainly impactful.

 

[Hookslide]

What possible comp would put him close to $10M?!?

Infatuation, or I must have him because I want him, and that will be the same guy complaining in 3 months we have no goal scoring we need a RW, we have no cap space to make moves........and is exactly how it will playout.

 

[UncleRico]

Saros did. His 20-21 season where he was 25 he put up exponentially better stats than Swayman, finished higher in Vezina voting and took a 4 year deal for 5m.

There's a litany of other similar examples. That's the point, Swayman is the exception not the rule. When GMs start handing out contracts that contradict precedent, it's typically when they get themselves in trouble. Hell, I think NYI are still paying Rick DiPietro. LOL

Saros almost completely different scenario.

Saros and Nashville had a looming arbitration deal where the arbiter almost always splits the difference between the players and teams offer.

That was the situation Swayman was in last year for his 1 year deal. Bruins didn’t have the cap space to give him a Saros type bridge at the time.

There is no arbitration hearing looming for swayman like there was for Saros before his 4yr $20m deal and now swayman free to fully negotiate a contract since there is no arbiter.

 

[4ORRBRUIN]

Y

Yeah, Frederic's 1 assist in the last 5 games of the series and 6 total shots in 6 games were certainly impactful.

Didn't he play in 13 games or the ones he did well in don't count? SA

 

[UncleRico]

You aren't thinking this thru far enough.

At 4x6, yes, by the end of the deal he will have been leap frogged. And then... guess what...then he will do the leapfrogging. Unless someone signs one year deals there is always going to be this cycle.

Oh I’m thinking it through plenty. Yes he will leapfrog the others after 4 years.

Swaymans just not going to agree to a contract where the majority of the deal he’s paid as a middle of the road starting goalie

 

[Dr Quincy]

Didn't he play in 13 games or the ones he did well in don't count? SA

Oh, I thought we were discarding first round performances.... I mean that was the criticism against Swayman. Or are skaters not responsible passed the 1st round?

 

[PlayMakers]

It doesn't matter how many times this gets repeated... some people just don't comprehend. I dunno.

 

[BTO]

Blows my mind Free agent 30 year old center getting almost $8m and a career 3rd pairing D for $5m.

But our 25 year old all-star goalie, who was our best player in the playoff by a wide margin doesn’t deserve $8m

Yeah and the whole “he’s only ever played 45 games (or whatever) so he hasn’t earned it” is almost a moot point. The Bruins effectively anointed him their #1 goalie (and not without reason) so they should pay him like a #1 goalie on a (hopefully) Cup contending team. Sure, $9+ is too much, but $8m isn’t. He’s your de facto #1 goalie, 45 games notwithstanding, so treat him like it. If they didn’t want to pay him they shouldn’t have anointed him.

 

[UncleRico]

Rico, I'm on your side if the # is 6M. The top5 performance is disingenuous. He wasn't a #1. He had a great 1st half of the season and sputtered after AS game. If he hadn't, we may not be arguing about it, as he probably would have played more games.
He's a perceived lock, not a "in the real-world lock", yet.

If you count regular season and postseason he was absolutely a top 5 goalie last year in my mind.