Player Discussion Jeremy Swayman III- still nothing

[Dennis Bonvie]

Thomas gave up 5 goals 4x against Tampa in 2011, yet we still praise his run because the team managed to win one of those 4

Probably praise Thomas more because of giving up 8 goals in a 7-game final than for his play against Tampa. Though he did pitch a shutout (1-0) in must win game 7 against Tampa. Also had a 2-0 shutout in that series.

 

[jgatie]

Thomas gave up 5 goals 4x against Tampa in 2011, yet we still praise his run because the team managed to win one of those 4

Been pointing this out for years. Thomas was lights out, other-wordly at times in 2011 (vs. PHI and VAN), and at other times just pedestrian (vs. MTL and TB). One thing is for certain, the Cup win wasn't solely due to Thomas, he also had one hell of a team in front of him.

 

[dugg133]

Probably praise Thomas more because of giving up 8 goals in a 7-game final than for his play against Tampa. Though he did pitch a shutout (1-0) in must win game 7 against Tampa. Also had a 2-0 shutout in that series.

I think the overall point is that pointing to 2 bad games where the team defense broke down in front of Sway isn't being particularly fair to him when he was excellent in the other 10. Just like pointing to two bad games for Thomas is obviously ignoring the larger picture of him being one of the main reasons for us winning the cup.

I don't think anyone's actually suggesting that Swayman's run last spring is on par with what Thomas did.

 

[analyser]

He's been a NHL regular for 3 years. In those 3 years among goalies he ranks:

Starts - 25th
SV% - 6th
GAA - 6th
SO - 7th

He acts like he has been 1st in all categories you listed. He is not near the clear cut best goalie in the league as his agent thinks.

 

[Number8]

After the 1983 finals, when the Islanders swept the Oilers, they made this observation:

"After game four, the Oilers players walked past the Islanders' dressing room and noticed many of the Islanders players exhausted and covered in ice packs rather than wildly celebrating, with Wayne Gretzky suggesting that this gave the Oilers inspiration that they needed in order to win next year."

Should note those Islanders (with Potvin, Trottier, Bossy and Gillies) were seen as playoff chokes before winning the Cup in 1980. The big change there was going to Billy Smith instead of Chico Resch in the playoffs.

So don't let the Leafs find the right goalie and don't let them see the other team's locker room after they lose in the playoffs again.

So very true. Couple of thoughts.

Adding Swayman to Toronto (or any similar goalie) would boost their chances immeasurably.

However,

1) The Leafs management would also have to actually absorb the notion that the way to build a Championship team is not to incessantly add to one end of the ice and essentially ignore the other. Defense matters -- even with a good goalie. They are sloooooowly coming around to that idea but it's been a long and half hearted transition. One that has wasted some years of true offensive studs.

2) I watched those Islanders with a mix of envy and hate. When I think of players with the grit and drive of a Potvin, Trottier, and Gilles???? Let's just say that Auston and Mitchy don't exactly leap to mind. For me, neither are the kind of warriors that Gretzky was referring to. Not even close.

Thankfully Swayman will sign with Boston and Toronto has to wait at least another year for Tavares money to free up so they can try to get their act together, anyway.

 

[EverettMike]

Been pointing this out for years. Thomas was lights out, other-wordly at times in 2011 (vs. PHI and VAN), and at other times just pedestrian (vs. MTL and TB). One thing is for certain, the Cup win wasn't solely due to Thomas, he also had one hell of a team in front of him.

This is a narrative that needs to end.

After a rough start where he definitely didn't make some saves he could/should have, Thomas was amazing starting with about 10 minutes left to go in the third period of game 3 against Montreal. That's when he completely slammed the door and let the Bs get back into the series.

He also was so much better against Tampa than people remember, because people only look at the goal totals out of context. For example in Game 6 Tomas Kaberle went full 1919 Black Sox without meaning to and Tampa kept capitalizing off of boneheaded mistakes that had nothing to do with Timmy.

That series Thomas still had a .916 save percentage, two shutouts, and only gave up one goal in the critical 5th game when the Bs got outplayed for the first 40 minutes and Thomas saved their asses in the 3rd with one of the greatest saves in NHL history.

 

[Hookslide]

he gave up 9 in that stretch.

He gave up 3 in another where he had a .927 sv ptg. the two wins were one each, game 6 where the Bruins scored 2 goals.

The offense as a whole for the Bruins scored 4 goals twice, 3 goals twice, 2 goals 5 times and 1 goal 4 times with a goalie in net.


Considering they never would have been there without his round 1 performance, I think it's understandable it caught up to him a bit.

I think that is the point everyone is making, can he handle the load.

 

[DKH]

Give him McAvoy money you are you cutting ?

Going to dress 17

 

[Mad-Marcus]

25th in Starts is the key measurable here, for me. This is what demands this contract not be a top 5 goalie contract.
Talent-wise he is there. His career just has not been long enough to justify the risk.
He seems very mentally tough, but we don't know about what we don't know about his ability to be the man and the ONLY man. (and in this media deathtrap of a market)

 

[ON3M4N]

He acts like he has been 1st in all categories you listed. He is not near the clear cut best goalie in the league as his agent thinks.

How has he "acted" like he's 1st in all those categories? When has his agent said he think Swayman is the bet goalie in the league?

 

[Hookslide]

Also, it's pretty insulting the Bruins gave Coyle 6.5% of the cap on an extension to be a 3rd line center but now are offering Swayman a little over 7% if the 6.5mil reports are to be believed. That percent would even be more laughable at the 4 year mark of that absurd offer.

I think Coyle has turned out to be a pretty good hockey player for this team, handles many roles, and stepped up quite well last season when this team needed him most, but, I am sure you where one of the many that had to sign a third line center for nearly 8 mil this offseason.

 

[ON3M4N]

I think that is the point everyone is making, can he handle the load.

When Rask was the #1 and had no competition for that spot, he averaged 60 starts a season from his age 26-30 season. Swayman made 43 starts last season and I don't see asking him to make an extra 17 starts as something that will break him. If anything he seems like the kind of goalie that plays better the more action that he gets.

 

[PlayMakers]

Love Swayman but I'm not in favor of any player "setting a new precedent" for salaries on this team.

McAvoy got market, he didn't set a new benchmark. Pasta got market, he didn't set a new benchmark. Swayman deserves to get paid too, he's earned it, but I hope it's market value.

That said, I don't like the talk of "doing it for the guys who will be in your shoes down the road." Why are those guys more important than your current teammates?

I also don't like the "fighting for my family comment." You're a millionaire. As Ray Bourque once said, 'what can I do with $7m that I can't do with $6m?' Your family is going to be set for generations whether you sign for $6m short term or $9m long term. That comment feels like he's using them as a bargaining chip which, feels gross.

The comments about knowing his comps is fair. And it's great that he's there and been there all summer. He is a great teammate. I hope he gets paid and because I'm a fan of both Swayman and the team I hope it's a good deal for both of them.

Been pointing this out for years. Thomas was lights out, other-wordly at times in 2011 (vs. PHI and VAN), and at other times just pedestrian (vs. MTL and TB). One thing is for certain, the Cup win wasn't solely due to Thomas, he also had one hell of a team in front of him.

Not unlike Bennington for STL in 2019. He was very inconsistent, but lights out when it matters (G7).

 

[DKH]

25th in Starts is the key measurable here, for me. This is what demands this contract not be a top 5 goalie contract.
Talent-wise he is there. His career just has not been long enough to justify the risk.
He seems very mentally tough, but we don't know about what we don't know about his ability to be the man and the ONLY man. (and in this media deathtrap of a market)

great post

He seems like a guy who plays for the love of it and should be compensated but there is a risk involved in both

He talks comps and Saros skill wise is a comp but he’s older by 4 years and logic has regression.

8/62-64 seems fair in I’d do if both

It can be structured appropriately going 6-10

I just don’t see the 10 M all the way thru and I don’t know to many / actually no one who thinks he’s there

The Bruins & Swayman are a match made in hockey heaven

Gotta say I thought this would be a piece of cake

 

[McGarnagle]

When Rask was the #1 and had no competition for that spot, he averaged 60 starts a season from his age 26-30 season. Swayman made 43 starts last season and I don't see asking him to make an extra 17 starts as something that will break him. If anything he seems like the kind of goalie that plays better the more action that he gets.

The years they had unreliable backups like Svedberg and Gustavsson, Rask had to play all those games and was visibly wiped at the end of the year saw a late season collapse.

When he had Halak or Dobby and could take 25 to 30 nights off to rest, he was fresher and more effective in the playoffs.

 

[ON3M4N]

Love Swayman but I'm not in favor of any player "setting a new precedent" for salaries on this team.

McAvoy got market, he didn't set a new benchmark. Pasta got market, he didn't set a new precedent. I hope Swayman gets market value, he's earned it.

That said, I don't like the talk of "doing it for the guys who will be in your shoes down the road." Why are those guys more important than your current teammates?

I also don't like the "fighting for my family comment." You're a millionaire. As Ray Bourque once said, 'what can I do with $7m that I can't do with $6m?' Your family is going to be set for generations whether you sign for $6m short term or $9m long term. That comment feels like he's using them as a bargaining chip which, feels gross.

The comments about knowing his comps is fair. And it's great that he's there and been there all summer. He is a great teammate. I hope he gets paid and because I'm a fan of both Swayman and the team I hope it's a good deal for both of them.


Not unlike Bennington for STL in 2019. He was very inconsistent, but lights out when it matters (G7).

If he ends up taking a shorter term deal, doesn't what he negotiate now impact his next contract? His next deal will be used as a comp by other teams with their goalie. Then when Swayman next contract is up (again assuming its a short term deal), Boston (and possibly other teams trying to sign him) will use those comps when negating with Swayman.

 

[PlayMakers]

He's been a NHL regular for 3 years. In those 3 years among goalies he ranks:

Starts - 25th
SV% - 6th
GAA - 6th
SO - 7th

The average of those 4 stats is 11. The 11th highest paid goalie in the NHL makes $5.4m

If we take out the starts, the average is 6. The 6th highest paid goalie in the NHL makes $6.4m

Of the 5 highest paid goalies in the NHL, I believe all but Vasilevsky were UFA's when they signed...

Price $10.5m
Bobrovsky $10m
Vasilevsky $9.5m
Hellebucyk $8.5m
Sorokin $8.25

In that light, the Bruins offer of $6.25 doesn't seem crazy. I expect him to get more than that but even at $6.5m, he would be the 6th highest paid goalie in the league next season.

If he "knows his comps" then he can't really make a case for being on par with Bobrovsky (Cup and a UFA), Vasilevksy (Cups) or Hellebucyk (2 Vezinas and a UFA).

Swayman's numbers are very similar to Sorokin (who was a UFA) and Saros, which would put him between $8.25m and $7.4m on an 8 year deal. Those deals are recent enough that they knew the cap was going up.

I also like @DKH idea of escalating the contract, something like $6, 6.5, 7, 7.5, 8, 8.5, 9.5, 9 = $7.75aav.

 

[PlayMakers]

If he ends up taking a shorter term deal, doesn't what he negotiate now impact his next contract? His next deal will be used as a comp by other teams with their goalie. Then when Swayman next contract is up (again assuming its a short term deal), Boston (and possibly other teams trying to sign him) will use those comps when negating with Swayman.

No I don't think so. UFA and RFA are different categories.

If Swayman takes a short term deal he'll be a UFA when his contract is up and he'll get whatever anyone is willing to pay. Comps go out the window. That's how Bobrovsky got $10m.

 

[Bruins4Lifer]

If he ends up taking a shorter term deal, doesn't what he negotiate now impact his next contract? His next deal will be used as a comp by other teams with their goalie. Then when Swayman next contract is up (again assuming its a short term deal), Boston (and possibly other teams trying to sign him) will use those comps when negating with Swayman.

If Swayman's deal is short (4 years) his comp on his next renewal would be other UFA goalies who would have had signed between now and then. Shesterkin's next contract would be the most likely comparable (assuming Swayman does also turn into a Vezina winner/finalist), but also Demko's next deal who's also UFA next year at 29 years old.

 

[Ludwig Fell Down]

This is a narrative that needs to end.

After a rough start where he definitely didn't make some saves he could/should have, Thomas was amazing starting with about 10 minutes left to go in the third period of game 3 against Montreal. That's when he completely slammed the door and let the Bs get back into the series.

He also was so much better against Tampa than people remember, because people only look at the goal totals out of context. For example in Game 6 Tomas Kaberle went full 1919 Black Sox without meaning to and Tampa kept capitalizing off of boneheaded mistakes that had nothing to do with Timmy.

That series Thomas still had a .916 save percentage, two shutouts, and only gave up one goal in the critical 5th game when the Bs got outplayed for the first 40 minutes and Thomas saved their asses in the 3rd with one of the greatest saves in NHL history.

This.

The two biggest factors in that playoff run were Thomas, and the Chara - Seidenberg pairing who played almost half of each game and were one of the most effective defensive pairings that I've seen in my lifetime.

And the fact that Kaberle's name is on the cup is a crime. Bs should have just played 5 defensemen.

 

[BigBadBruins7708]

This.

The two biggest factors in that playoff run were Thomas, and the Chara - Seidenberg pairing who played almost half of each game and were one of the most effective defensive pairings that I've seen in my lifetime.

And the fact that Kaberle's name is on the cup is a crime. Bs should have just played 5 defensemen.

Yeah, that's the point I was making. It's dumb to tear down Thomas's run by saying "but he allowed 5 goals 4x to Tampa" same way its dumb to discredit Swayman's playoffs by saying "but he gave up 6 goals twice to Florida"

 

[Grimey]

Been pointing this out for years. Thomas was lights out, other-wordly at times in 2011 (vs. PHI and VAN), and at other times just pedestrian (vs. MTL and TB). One thing is for certain, the Cup win wasn't solely due to Thomas, he also had one hell of a team in front of him.

That 3rd line seemed to come up huge in games where Thomas was shaky. I must have said “goddamn I love Michael Ryder” like 18 times during that run. Anyway sorry for derailing the thread.

Swayman’s a beast.

 

[jgatie]

This.

The two biggest factors in that playoff run were Thomas, and the Chara - Seidenberg pairing who played almost half of each game and were one of the most effective defensive pairings that I've seen in my lifetime.

And the fact that Kaberle's name is on the cup is a crime. Bs should have just played 5 defensemen.

Kaberle was the highest scoring D-man in that run. He contributed more than you think.

Yeah, that's the point I was making. It's dumb to tear down Thomas's run by saying "but he allowed 5 goals 4x to Tampa" same way its dumb to discredit Swayman's playoffs by saying "but he gave up 6 goals twice to Florida"

So stating a fact is now designated as "tearing down Thomas's run"? He gave up 5+ goals 4 times in one series. That's not an opinion, it's a fact. How that affects your opinion of Thomas's run is your problem, not ours.

 

[EverettMike]

Kaberle was the highest scoring D-man in that run. He contributed more than you think.



So stating a fact is now designated as "tearing down Thomas's run"? He gave up 5+ goals 4 times in one series. That's not an opinion, it's a fact. How that affects your opinion of Thomas's run is your problem, not ours.

You calling him "pedestrian" in rounds 1 and 3 is opinion, not fact

 

[Kalus]

Fluto suggested in his article today that after Swayman signs, Bruins might want to think about starting the year with Bussi as the backup. Have Korpi start in Providence to “get his game back”. I think it is is funny that even the local beat reporter knows the Korpi contract the Bruins foolishly took on is so bad that there is NO risk of another team making a waiver claim.