KrisLeturnover
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- Jan 17, 2021
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Value of: Jake Guentzel
- Thread starter KrisLeturnover
- Start date
I hate thay guy. I hope he goes out west and keeps going when he reaches the ocean.
Roof Daddy
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- Apr 1, 2008
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I’d be ok if he stopped in Edmonton for a year before continuing to the ocean. What’s the price w/ 50% retention?
The Gloaming
23
Zbynek
Jarry friggin sucks dude
lol.. Pens aren't retaining on his 6 mil cap hit dude
DrDangles
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- Mar 1, 2013
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Worth noting he has a 12 team no trade list. But any trade with Jake has to be a hockey trade, ideally for a top pairing LD.
Roof Daddy
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- Apr 1, 2008
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lol…. He’s only got one year left on his contract dude.
Seriously, IF (big if) the Pens were shopping Guentzel, I can only assume it would be with the strategy of a re-tool/rebuild, at which point absorbing cap is moot.
Do I think they’re actually shopping him? No.
Would the Oil have the right pieces to acquire him? Not sure.
Would the Pens be dumb to not maximize Guentzel’s value by retaining 50% for one year if they went the re-tool route? Yes.
Rebuilding teams do it all the time (retention). I’m sure they’d have no issue trading him without retention, but if you can gain an extra 2nd for eating 3 mil, why wouldn’t you?
molon labe
Registered User
He'd fetch a ransom without retention. I think that was his point - alongside it being super cheap.
Why the hell would we retain when we're trying to remain competitive - on a contract that in no world requires retention. We might include a cap dump alongside to take a lesser return (Granlund).
- .9 ppg over his career including .43 gpg
- most impressive is that he's ppg in the playoffs. 58p / 58 games including 34 goals.
At 6M, even with 1 year left he's got just about every team in the league calling.
Zbynek
Jarry friggin sucks dude
Fair enough. We can retain 4% just like Nashville did
All seriousness though, I think you'll be hard-pressed to find a better value for a scoring winger in the entire NHL (i guess Adrian Kempe). Guentzel has been scoring at a 40 goal clip for 5 seasons straight. If Guentzel goes, I would seriously doubt any holdup to the trade will be the cap hit.
Speaking of which, if I was a betting man I'd bet EDM is on Jake's 12-team no trade clause.
Also, you've kind of disregarded the Pens cap situation in this whole thinking process, but let's not even go there. We're also still at least 2 years away from a full rebuild. If Jake gets traded it's a hockey trade and to maximize value on him.
molon labe
Registered User
Fair enough. We can retain 4% just like Nashville did
All seriousness though, I think you'll be hard-pressed to find a better value for a scoring winger in the entire NHL (i guess Adrian Kempe). Guentzel has been scoring at a 40 goal clip for 5 seasons straight. If Guentzel goes, I would seriously doubt any holdup to the trade will be the cap hit.
Speaking of which, if I was a betting man I'd bet EDM is on Jake's 12-team no trade clause.
Also, you've kind of disregarded the Pens cap situation in this whole thinking process, but let's not even go there. We're also still at least 2 years away from a full rebuild. If Jake gets traded it's a hockey trade and to maximize value on him.
He really makes little sense to trade unless you're getting Saros/Gibson [I remember Jake liking Nashville so could see him signing long term there] or last years' fan target of Tkachuk but that ships' sailed.
I'd really hate to use him to dump Granlund but if you could deal Jake + Granlund with no salary coming back you then what...go after DeBrincat? Not sure what exactly that does for the Pens overall...maybe a slight positive bump since Granlund is about 2-2.5M overpaid.
A king ransom us a 1st and prospect maybe? He's a free agent and teams will treat him like rental. Alot of teams are in cap trouble and if he doesn't play RW or two way game, alot of teams now adays are wary of just a scorer like Jake, fiala, boeser who don't have two way games
molon labe
Registered User
If he had 3 suitors then yeah, sure - and we'd pick the best 1st or best prospect or both. At 6M he's exactly the player teams want in a cash strapped league - not the other way around. With a 12 team no-go, that leaves 20 teams to bid on him. How you could think the end result is only a 1st round pick - maybe prospect in a 20 team discussion is beyond me but hey - I'd eat crow.
Also lol...20 goal Boeser...who costs MORE...is your comparable. Cmon now.
Zbynek
Jarry friggin sucks dude
If Guentzel is the cost to get Gibson, I don't want Gibson.
Saros, I'd happily add to Jake.
Hellebuyck, I would think about it too.
Lol, what? One of these guys sticks out like a sore thumb. Really though it's 3 tiers of wingers.
Until they age out with this core group of Crosby, Malkin and Letang, it doesn't seem like they want to rebuild yet. A lot can change since upper management just got cashiered, of course. It's not completely clear what Fenway wants to do. Yet the working theory seems to be that they want to retool and compete while Crosby is there - which means turning the money that they get from moving some players into new players, not dead cap space.
At the deadline, if they're out of the running for a playoff spot, the calculus probably changes and retention would be part of discussions. In any offseason moves, though, you have to think the Pens want to move some guys and spend every penny of that cap space on other players. Major retention, and certainly 50 percent, is probably not in the cards.
(I tend to agree that the Pens aren't going to be shopping this guy, mind you. Competing now means not dumping 40-goal players who are good value. If anything, they might extend him.)
Gurglesons
Registered User
Jake Guentzel would return a huge amount if the Penguins put him on the market. He's not comparable to those two players and has proven he is one of the best goal scorers in the playoffs over his career.
Any contender would be begging for him. Especially if PIT retains 50%.
I am literally trying to say even at 6mil, teams still have to move money. There's a reason cap strapped teams like Minnesota doesn't pay 1st or 2nd for rentals. They moved fiala because they didn't want to have to move multiple pieces off roster to keep fiala
As for the boeser, fiala and Jake comparisons, all I am saying is alot of teams even for players like Jake and fiala, they want them to play a two way game.
Gurglesons
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- Jun 13, 2010
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For Guentzel to be available, it means the Penguins are out of the playoff race big time. That means they will want one of two things: blue-chip prospects or 1st round-draft picks.
At 50% retention, you're looking at a proven top line 40g scoring LW at $3mil who is 28. I can't imagine the price will be cheap. I think you're looking at 1st, a blue-chip prospect, and maybe a younger roster player.
The Horvat is a decent starting point: 1st, Raty, Beauvillier (with him being the 40-50pt scorer). Debrincat isn't bad either: 1st, 2nd, 3rd. Yes, he's a RFA but Jake is a proven 40g who bring that production to the playoffs. He's just flat-out not going to be cheap.
I wouldn't be surprised to see a 2 1sts trades made, perhaps one being conditional.
At 50% retention, you're looking at a proven top line 40g scoring LW at $3mil who is 28. I can't imagine the price will be cheap. I think you're looking at 1st, a blue-chip prospect, and maybe a younger roster player.
The Horvat is a decent starting point: 1st, Raty, Beauvillier (with him being the 40-50pt scorer). Debrincat isn't bad either: 1st, 2nd, 3rd. Yes, he's a RFA but Jake is a proven 40g who bring that production to the playoffs. He's just flat-out not going to be cheap.
I wouldn't be surprised to see a 2 1sts trades made, perhaps one being conditional.
Josey Wales
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- May 16, 2022
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Some of you guys needs to take a Month off
You give up 4 firsts for Guentzel you're going to be selling cars by the end of the year.
