ACC1224
Super Elite, Passing ALL Tests since 2002
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TSN: Jake Gardiner or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Advanced Stats
- Thread starter HarrisonFord
- Start date
5th from worst.
Did you see the statistic on page 3 of this thread?
If you take the average GAA of Bernier and Gardiner when they are playing with him, it is 2.415, which would slot in between Minnesota and St Louis for 6th best defensive team in the league.
Gardiner was the best defensive force on the team, and is one of the better defensive forces in the National Hockey League.
The Leafs are 28th in 5on5, unadjusted GA60 (from 2012/13-2014/15), while Gardiner is 58th (out of 150) in 5on5, unadjusted GA60 among defensemen with 2000+ minutes played (44th out of 120 with 2500+ minutes played) over the same span of time.
That's pretty remarkable.
ACC1224
Super Elite, Passing ALL Tests since 2002
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Darcy Tucker
My Name is Bob
ACC1224
Super Elite, Passing ALL Tests since 2002
- Aug 19, 2002
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We all like to watch hockey.
The difference is that some of us aren't delusional enough to believe we possess the capabilities (to a higher degree than an inherently unbiased statistic) to properly evaluate the effectiveness of any given player.
Nithoniniel
Registered User
p.l.f.
use the force
I'm guessing with more diligent back checking by the forwards with babcocks system Gardiner and rielly will benefit from the extra protection and might pinch more effectively
Plus with cody gone rack.up some pts on the pp
Plus with cody gone rack.up some pts on the pp
Mitchy
#HFOutcasts
Gardiner drives possession, is extremely effective defensively, makes others around him better and creates scoring chances. Those are qualities of a great defenceman. He can improve of course, but he is already, at the very least, a good defenceman.
The thing about Gardiner is, a lot of people only see the mistakes he makes, never the good things he does. Sure, from time to time, he'll allow a "dumb" turnover that'll lead to a goal, but many more times, he'll prevent scoring chances and instead drive the puck towards the other zone. Unfortunately, the latter goes unnoticed a lot.
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ACC1224
Super Elite, Passing ALL Tests since 2002
- Aug 19, 2002
- 76,632
- 43,136
ACC1224
Super Elite, Passing ALL Tests since 2002
- Aug 19, 2002
- 76,632
- 43,136
Most people who don't understand hockey analytics don't like Gardiner. He makes about 1 or 2 boneheaded plays per game. He also makes about 10-15 very good or great plays per game.
The fact is that he's much more effective than most players. However, cognitive biases tend to favour the more extreme plays (good or bad). As such, people remember both of Gardiner's bad plays, and none of his good/efficient ones.
Kubus
Registered User
- Jun 22, 2014
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leafs in five
Registered User
Bolded-how do they develop a formula that can accurately project who is better when one player sees different quality of minutes and competition than another player? At best it is a projection, not fact.
From what I have looked at, Jake gets more favourable zone starts, lower QOC and is not typically used in a defensive end "defend the score" scenario often.
I would love to see him paired with Dion as the top pair this year, playing top pair minutes, against toughest competition and in tight games as a means of protecting a lead. If he can handle that and excel, and the stats back it up, then we will know what we have in Jake. If he looks out of place and the stats back it up, that will also be very telling. Time to see what we have here for real, not what stats project we have.
Leaf Rocket
Leaf Fan Till I Die
oh man come on be nice haha he's had some bad years. I think he can bring it out but it's prolly a do or die year for him IMO.
Leaf Rocket
Leaf Fan Till I Die
Garbage defensively but fantastic possession player.
On LA he would look like an All-Star but on the type of Team Toronto has been lately his weakness is magnified.
On LA he would look like an All-Star but on the type of Team Toronto has been lately his weakness is magnified.
Oscar Peterson
Registered User
- Jun 27, 2015
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First post here, but good to see people understand stuff like this. I'm not sure how people try to argue with stats like these, but at the end of the day no matter how much it seems like Gardiner makes a stupid play or gives the puck away he still gets the job done far better than any of our other defensemen.
Luckily I'm sure with the analytics push Toronto is making, I'm sure they understand this and I don't think he's going anywhere anytime soon.
Not sure if serious...
Zone-starts is literally a measure (an absolute measure, not a projection) of where a player starts their shift. Quality of competition is determined by measuring the performance of the players that played against a particular player, but means less than usage (how much a player plays) since QoC tends to be very similar (player to player) over the course of a season (the difference between Phaneuf's competition and Gardiner's competition is roughly two goals over 1200 minutes). Gardiner led the Leafs' defensemen in 5on5 ice-time (both per game and total) this season, and all of the stats you're seeing are even-strength statistics; he's already playing top-pairing minutes.
Rielly is better at straight away speed power skating but on the edges it's not even close Gardiner is one of the best in the game. He's effortless with his skating power isn't needed to move which is why he's so damn good as a puck mover.
