Player Discussion Jake "Big Tuna" Virtanen | XVII Nikolaj Who...?

[krutovsdonut]

None of those were #6 overall pick. Bo was close but he didn't play 4th line long we are hoping maybeeeee jake can be a 4th liner regularity and he's a #5.

That's brutal.

did you say bo didn't play on the fourth line long?

are you drawing meaningful distinctions between how to treat a 6 and 9 overall pick?

seems to me you are paddling upstream very hard.

 

[Ace of Hades]

Baertschi will be 25 in less than a month. Not "23/24".

Players at 25 generally are what they are. He may not be at his absolute peak but he's likely very close already.

Ahh, thought he was a 93 born.

He's at his prime. Peaks can last longer than 25, and necessarily don't need to be close to that age.

Agreed. I don't think Baertschi's game has another level. He may rise a little bit due to Bo (or another high potential linemate) raising his game, but it's hard to imagine Baertschi elevating much higher, if at all.

Considering he's rising ahead every year, learning aspects he can improve, develop, he may elevate his game at a higher level. His point production has increased every year. The concept of late bloomers do exist here.

 

[CanaFan]

Ahh, thought he was a 93 born.

He's at his prime. Peaks can last longer than 25, and necessarily don't need to be close to that age.

I didn't say his peak was closing, I said he was at/near his peak. And he likely is. That doesn't mean I think he's going to decline anytime soon, just that you can't expect him to continue to improve like he is 19/20/21 years old.

 

[rune74]

did you say bo didn't play on the fourth line long?

are you drawing meaningful distinctions between how to treat a 6 and 9 overall pick?

seems to me you are paddling upstream very hard.

I wouldn't even react to that, just do a quick search of his other posts and they are all similar.

 

[Ace of Hades]

I didn't say his peak was closing, I said he was at/near his peak. And he likely is. That doesn't mean I think he's going to decline anytime soon, just that you can't expect him to continue to improve like he is 19/20/21 years old.

I didn't say you did, I said he isn't near his peak yet. If he's improving by a year to year basis, then yes I can expect him to improve atleast this year, and it would be disappointing if he doesn't atleast up 40 points, in my perception. I don't expect him to prove every year, but atleast improve on his last season's totals. That is realistic at the very least.

 

[Gaunce4gm]

Did he not lead the team in P/60 last season...?

 

[krutovsdonut]

baertschi was already written off once as stale dated by conventional wisdom, and that was proven wrong. he's done better than projected while playing on bad teams where goals are hard to come by. i wouldn't rule out a break out year in the right situation and i wouldn't give all the credit to his linemates if it happens.

 

[Canucker]

Ahh, thought he was a 93 born.

He's at his prime. Peaks can last longer than 25, and necessarily don't need to be close to that age.




Considering he's rising ahead every year, learning aspects he can improve, develop, he may elevate his game at a higher level. His point production has increased every year. The concept of late bloomers do exist here.

For sure they exist, I just haven't seen anything to lead me to believe that Baertschi is anything more than a decent "supporting" middle line forward.

 

[CanaFan]

baertschi was already written off once as stale dated by conventional wisdom, and that was proven wrong. he's done better than projected while playing on bad teams where goals are hard to come by. i wouldn't rule out a break out year in the right situation and i wouldn't give all the credit to his linemates if it happens.

I wouldn't rule out winning the lottery either.

 

[Ace of Hades]

For sure they exist, I just haven't seen anything to lead me to believe that Baertschi is anything more than a decent "supporting" middle line forward.

Well that's all on Baertschi to change minds then. I seen enough to suggest he has a longer leash to be on the top 6 LW forward spot for now. Besides, no one is really challenging him hard enough for it to begin with.

 

[Canucker]

Well that's all on Baertschi to change minds then. I seen enough to suggest he has a longer leash to be on the top 6 LW forward spot for now. Besides, no one is really challenging him for it to begin it.

For me, thats the sad part. If he is the best we have it's just a reminder of what poor shape this lineup is in. This isn't meant to bash Baertschi, he's made himself an NHL player since being pulled from Calgary....but for him to be considered a top line player is an indictment of how rough this team is currently.

 

[mossey3535]

baertschi was already written off once as stale dated by conventional wisdom, and that was proven wrong. he's done better than projected while playing on bad teams where goals are hard to come by. i wouldn't rule out a break out year in the right situation and i wouldn't give all the credit to his linemates if it happens.

I don't think so, when we got him it was well known around the league that his development had been stunted by the particular management/coaching situation he was in. Not sure many had him totally written off.

 

[Ace of Hades]

For me, thats the sad part. If he is the best we have it's just a reminder of what poor shape this lineup is in. This isn't meant to bash Baertschi, he's made himself an NHL player since being pulled from Calgary....but for him to be considered a top line player is an indictment of how rough this team is currently.

We are realistically suppose to be a rebuilding team, so Baertschi in that role isn't a bad position to be in. The problem is this incompetent management doesn't seem to follow along, and believe we can compete for the playoffs every year, this is proven by the multiple veteran UFA signings (and yea I don't buy the we can receive picks for them in the Deadline BS, when they aren't worth much).

 

[DL44]

Baertschi talk to Baertschi thread please...

This thread is to revel in discussion about the Legend in the making Jake Virtanen.

 

[krutovsdonut]

I wouldn't rule out winning the lottery either.

high draft picks making good a little late is quite a bit more likely than the lottery, especially when they have shown steady progress.

what were your projections for the sedins in the fall of 2005 as they celebrated their 25th birthdays having just scored .65 ppg in sweden and before that 50ish points in the nhl?

 

[CanaFan]

high draft picks making good a little late is quite a bit more likely than the lottery, especially when they have shown steady progress.

what were your projections for the sedins in the fall of 2005 as they celebrated their 25th birthdays having just scored .65 ppg in sweden and before that 50ish points in the nhl?

I'm just saying "not ruling things out" is kinda meaningless. Better question is would you expect it?

Outliers exist, doesn't mean you should consider them likely.

 

[SnapIt]

Jake is lookin good on the ice. He can score, hit, and help on D.

He put in the work over the summer, and cleaned up his mindset. But as a gorgeous blonde, he's gotta have some fun. All is forgiven.

 

[Shareefruck]

I'm actually more optimistic about Baertschi's upside/ability to break out than I am about Hutton or Stecher's, personally (I'm skeptical about them ever being REAL first pairing guys). He already plays for long stretches like a 50 point second liner with only average icetime for his production. He already has the skill, smarts, and work ethic to potentially click with first line talent (in other words, there isn't a ceiling for who he can play with). And he's become a significantly better all-around player every year.

It doesn't require too large of a leap to suggest that a more consistent Baertschi playing with legitimate first liners and given first line minutes is capable of looking like an effective complementary 3rd piece of a first line, IMO.

I personally have nothing but good things to say about this player.

 

[krutovsdonut]

I'm just saying "not ruling things out" is kinda meaningless. Better question is would you expect it?

Outliers exist, doesn't mean you should consider them likely.

and the fact you disagree doesn't mean you should dismissively compare outliers to much more unlikely events like winning the lottery either.

and i didn;t consider it likely. i simply didn't rule it out. big difference.

in other news, we really need to forge some kind of a truce. we are coming at this from such completely different directions that we are going to clash endlessly. i think our actual assessment of what we see with players and skills is pretty similar, so maybe we can try and interact at that level without going there with our differing way of projecting the future from what we see.

 

[CanaFan]

and the fact you disagree doesn't mean you should dismissively compare outliers to much more unlikely events like winning the lottery either.

and i didn;t consider it likely. i simply didn't rule it out. big difference.

in other news, we really need to forge some kind of a truce. we are coming at this from such completely different directions that we are going to clash endlessly. i think our actual assessment of what we see with players and skills is pretty similar, so maybe we can try and interact at that level without going there with our differing way of projecting the future from what we see.

Ah man it's no biggie. I just find unquantified statements like "wouldn't rule out" to be so useless in discussions. Sure I wouldn't rule out Baertschi doing anything. There's a lot of things I wouldn't rule out, but what's the point? Probability is a more useful mode of discussion than possibility. Otherwise we could just make up unlikely scenarios all day and challenge others to prove it's impossible. Don't take my lottery comment so literally.

And no truce needed. We debate but I like to think we keep it civil. You're a good poster, as much as I seem to argue with your posts. Hope it doesn't come across as anything but legit discussion.

 

[krutovsdonut]

Ah man it's no biggie. I just find unquantified statements like "wouldn't rule out" to be so useless in discussions. Sure I wouldn't rule out Baertschi doing anything. There's a lot of things I wouldn't rule out, but what's the point? Probability is a more useful mode of discussion than possibility. Otherwise we could just make up unlikely scenarios all day and challenge others to prove it's impossible. Don't take my lottery comment so literally.

And no truce needed. We debate but I like to think we keep it civil. You're a good poster, as much as I seem to argue with your posts. Hope it doesn't come across as anything but legit discussion.

possibility is way more interesting to me than probability. probability is a little boring when it comes true, and it also hurts worse when they bust against probability. which they do. i like players with possibilities.

 

[CanaFan]

possibility is way more interesting to me than probability. probability is a little boring when it comes true, and it also hurts worse when they bust against probability. which they do. i like players with possibilities.

what player doesn't have possibilities though? Should we talk about Virtanen scoring 35 goals? Granlund being an all-star? Brock Boeser winning the Rocket Richard?

I mean you *can* but it descends into meaningless (usually) optimism more than grounded hockey discussion. It's the message board equivalent of waving a towel and yelling "Go Canucks Go!". Pass.

 

[rune74]

I thought I would share great article on Jake.

http://www.tsn.ca/productive-preseason-a-blast-for-jake-virtanen-1.863045

 

[CanaFan]

I thought I would share great article on Jake.

http://www.tsn.ca/productive-preseason-a-blast-for-jake-virtanen-1.863045

Firing Willie is paying off already.

 

[krutovsdonut]

what player doesn't have possibilities though? Should we talk about Virtanen scoring 35 goals? Granlund being an all-star? Brock Boeser winning the Rocket Richard?

I mean you *can* but it descends into meaningless (usually) optimism more than grounded hockey discussion. It's the message board equivalent of waving a towel and yelling "Go Canucks Go!". Pass.

i don't see any reason at the moment to talk about virtanen scoring 35 goals, but i do look upon virtanen as a potential 35 goal scorer. he has the talent to do that if he can pull it together and the stars really align. granlund as an all star is a bridge too far that i can't process, but boeser winning the rocket richard is remotely conceivable.

now none of these concepts is worth explicitly discussing in the sense of "wouldn't it be great if...". but, the virtanen/boeser stuff do represent remote but real possibilities, and i like players with high end possibilities and those are more important to me in a prospect than their likely average results.

so i see your insistence on looking at players based on their most likely average outcomes as only one part of their evaluation and not focussed on the subject at hand. it is also in many cases counterproductive to understanding the value of a prospect. until their upside potential is gone, that is what i am chasing in a prospect. so that's what i look at. the likelihood they turn into a middling nhl player is of zero interest except to the extent it crowds out the upside.

so when virtanen blows an entire year, i certainly see his stock dropping, but i am evaluating whether or not he can come back from that. where he is currently trending if he doesn't come back doesn't really interest me. possibility not probability.