Jaden Schwartz’s next contact

[Stealth JD]

According to Luszczyszyn’s model, Schwartz’s market value for his next contract is approximately $4.8 million on average for six years, which would account for about 6 percent of the Blues’ salary cap. That would be unbelievable, but I guess Army can point to Perron and say "look".

 

[The Note]

According to Luszczyszyn’s model, Schwartz’s market value for his next contract is approximately $4.8 million on average for six years, which would account for about 6 percent of the Blues’ salary cap. That would be unbelievable, but I guess Army can point to Perron and say "look".

Yeah some of the numbers being tossed around in that article were definitely lower than I thought. I still would not want a 6 year deal. At some DA has to stop signing people until they are 34+ years old, particularly when the guys who are already locked up for are not particularly compelling past the next two or so years. I would like Schwartz to stick around, but I would rather pay him $6.5 for 3 years than ~$5 for 6 years. I also have the same concerns about ROR and Perron, but that is probably a different discussion for a different thread.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

According to Luszczyszyn’s model, Schwartz’s market value for his next contract is approximately $4.8 million on average for six years, which would account for about 6 percent of the Blues’ salary cap. That would be unbelievable, but I guess Army can point to Perron and say "look".

I don't have time to go through that list of comparables - maybe @Brian39 can do that - but at first glance there's a handful of them that make me . Definitely Brouwer, probably Hemsky, definitely Craig Smith, definitely Michael Grabner. Those 4 right at a glance scream "they have no business being a comp to Jaden Schwartz."

 

[Brian39]

According to Luszczyszyn’s model, Schwartz’s market value for his next contract is approximately $4.8 million on average for six years, which would account for about 6 percent of the Blues’ salary cap. That would be unbelievable, but I guess Army can point to Perron and say "look".

I have an exceptionally hard time trusting two models that both list Mike Hoffman as one of the best league-wide comps to Jaden Schwartz. I get that these comps come from their Game Score Value Added model and I say this as one of Hoffman's biggest supporters on this forum. But these two players couldn't be further apart in what they bring to an NHL team. That is the downside to boiling down everything to one metric to try and replicate baseball's 'Wins Above Replacement.' You get weird outcomes like Krug being hands-down our best D man (1.76) while Parayko and Dunn have almost identical value (1.07 vs 1.04) since these tools pretty much never accurately measure defense.

With all that said, Dom's model gives Schenn and Schwartz identical 1.6 GVSA ratings. The Athletic doesn't have a tool to crunch these numbers the way Dom crunched them in the article you linked, so I can't delve too deeply into them. This past November, Dom had Schenn's deal as about an expected $6M of an overpay over the life of the deal and had it rated as the 2nd worst contract on the team, which means that Dom had an 8 year deal for Schenn worth around $5.75M AAV before the start of this season. This has been Schenn's worst season as a Blue by a healthy margin and his 70 point season has dropped out of consideration for Dom's model since that article was written. I would be very, very surprised if Dom's model ranked Schenn as more than a $5M player right now and all of Schenn's surplus value to Schwartz is based on him playing center.

 

[LGB]

I have an exceptionally hard time trusting two models that both list Mike Hoffman as one of the best league-wide comps to Jaden Schwartz. I get that these comps come from their Game Score Value Added model and I say this as one of Hoffman's biggest supporters on this forum. But these two players couldn't be further apart in what they bring to an NHL team. That is the downside to boiling down everything to one metric to try and replicate baseball's 'Wins Above Replacement.' You get weird outcomes like Krug being hands-down our best D man (1.76) while Parayko and Dunn have almost identical value (1.07 vs 1.04) since these tools pretty much never accurately measure defense.

Yeah I personally much prefer xG based analysis like the the HockeyViz charts shown in the article. You have to piece a few different factors together (xG impact, shooting impact, EV scoring rates, PP and PK impact), but I think it paints a better picture. Schwartz is one of the better play-drivers in the league, but not as good in the other aspects.

 

[Celtic Note]

I have no idea one way or another. I will say that if they have a deal in hand and are waiting for the expansion draft to pass and Schwartz is under $6M per, either someone really wants to stay here or Armstrong should get into the business of selling ice to people in the Arctic.

If they don't have a deal in hand, there's all kinds of reasons to think it's not going to be pretty.

Selling ice to people in the Arctic might be a realistic business at some point in the future.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

One other thing that's kind of important: whatever comps Dom Luszczyszyn's model uses, it's still an estimate of the value (in salary) a player would be expected to earn for his performance, based on measurable data that's fed into the model. In case it's not obvious to people over ~25 years of free agency, teams frequently overpay for what they get. It might well happen to Schwartz, too. That's beside the point. If you're going out and offering contracts based on well my model says you're only going to do _____ you're essentially telling guys "I'm not paying more on the off chance the model might be wrong and you might do better, I want the chance to underpay you if you're better than that." That might work, you might avoid a bad contract as a result, but going the other way you risk not getting someone who the model doesn't measure accurately whether it's bad comps or model error or randomness that no model can ever pick up because you're trying to be too cheap and someone else says we think you'll really do _______, here's a contract to reflect that.

If you think Schwartz won't be great at 34, fine. Don't sign him through 34. But then be prepared to answer why he can't get a contract through 34 when you gave 3 other guys contracts through that age when they'll also likely not be great either - because well, we made a mistake with those guys, we're not doing it again for you probably won't get received well, especially if you're saying you want to pay him less than those guys.

 

[BlueSeal]

If you think Schwartz won't be great at 34, fine. Don't sign him through 34. But then be prepared to answer why he can't get a contract through 34 when you gave 3 other guys contracts through that age when they'll also likely not be great either - because well, we made a mistake with those guys, we're not doing it again for you probably won't get received well, especially if you're saying you want to pay him less than those guys.

The thing is, that's the right response but with the wrong players in terms of Army. You pay more for less over paying the right price for what you need or, if you get lucky, outright committing theft in the case of ROR.

I don't think Army views anything he's done as a mistake, but as a needed necessity. He has his own standards and he follows them, whether they contradict with practical good sense or not. Schwartz is replaceable, but why would you not sign a guy to a moderate contract over having to either training a prospect (3-5 years) or signing a player of like or lesser ability for the same or similar money? He's tried that a few times and it's rarely worked out to the team's benefit.

 

[TruBlu]

Jaden should get a real hard look at a trade. I'm a big fan, but I don't see any way to fit him into the lineup moving forward. We need to start looking to stock up on draft picks and trades for younger players so we can get a new core started while we have a guy like ROR at the helm to mentor them.

 

[Frenzy31]

Jaden should get a real hard look at a trade. I'm a big fan, but I don't see any way to fit him into the lineup moving forward. We need to start looking to stock up on draft picks and trades for younger players so we can get a new core started while we have a guy like ROR at the helm to mentor them.

Schwartz is a UFA. He can leave the team this summer.

 

[TruBlu]

I forgot the trade deadline had already passed with the crazy stuff they've done with the schedules this season. I don't get to watch the games anymore since only a few companies own every single broadcast in the world now. It's probably best we let him go unless he's willing to accept a four year term.

 

[Xerloris]

OK, let's look at some comparable UFA wingers. All stats taken for their career up to the time they got their UFA deal.

Schwartz has 378 points in 548 regular season games (.69 points per game). Extremely good possession numbers and 54 points in 84 playoff games.

JVR: 393 points in 609 games played before hitting UFA (which is .65 points per game). Decent possession stats (but inconsistent) and 29 points in 59 playoff games. He got $7M per year for 5 years

Skinner: 442 points in 661 games (.67 points per game), but with a lean more towards goals (244 to Schwartz's 150). Decent possession numbers and no career playoff appearances. $9M per year for 8 years and a full NMC for the duration.

Anders Lee: 258 points in 425 games (.61 points per game). Comparable possession numbers and 16 points in 35 playoff games. $7M per year for 7 years, a full NTC for the firt 5 of those years and a 15 team no-trade list for the last 2.

Evander Kane: 354 points in 574 games (.62 points per game and 186 goals to Schwartz's 150). Okay but inconsistent possession numbers and 13 points in 29 playoff games. $7M per year for 7 years with a very strong modified NTC for all 7 years (3 team list of teams he can be traded to).

Chris Kreider: 316 points in 523 games (.60 points per game). Good possession numbers and 39 points in 80 playoff games. $6.5M per year for 7 years with a NMC all 7 years (but a modified NTC with a 15 team no-trade list for the last 3).

Zuccarello: 355 points in 511 games (.69 points per game). good but inconsistent possession numbers and 42 points in 73 playoff games. $6M per year for 5 years an NMC for all 5 years (but a modified NTC with a 10 team no trade list for the last 2). Worth noting that Zucc was almost 32 when he signed this deal while Schwartz will have just turned 29.

Schwartz is the only person on that list with a Cup ring. Contracts aside, I think there is a decent argument for taking Schwartz over most (if not all) of this list. So there is your market value. Now, if you are asking him to take a hometown discount, you better have a very good answer to why he should have to take one when the Blues felt that Krug and Faulk were each worth more money.

Several of these players were signed on the premise that they were 30-40 goal scorers, like JVR and Skinner. How many of those were signed during a pandemic with a flat cap? Also some of these were signed 3-4 years ago. None of that adds up to them being comparables. How many of those players are on cup contending teams? laugh if you want but you all know the Blues are in a better situation that those teams listed.

 

[Spektre]

Schwartz isn’t doing himself any favors during a contract year. I don’t see him being a top 6 forward because he doesn’t generate enough offense.

I think 4 million per season is the most I would go

 

[Mike Liut]

I’d go 5x5 at this point. Nothing more.

 

[Brian39]

Several of these players were signed on the premise that they were 30-40 goal scorers, like JVR and Skinner. How many of those were signed during a pandemic with a flat cap? Also some of these were signed 3-4 years ago. None of that adds up to them being comparables. How many of those players are on cup contending teams? laugh if you want but you all know the Blues are in a better situation that those teams listed.

Feel free to find some perfect comps then...

 

[Stealth JD]

Perron was 30 years old coming off a 66-point year with the Knights, helping them to the Final prior to signing as a UFA with STL for $4M x 4yr. Can Schwartz really hope for much more? At one point it wasn't crazy to think he'd be offered "Schenn" money; but I don't think that's a possibility any longer.

 

[Brian39]

Perron was 30 years old coming off a 66-point year with the Knights, helping them to the Final prior to signing as a UFA with STL for $4M x 4yr. Can Schwartz really hope for much more? At one point it wasn't crazy to think he'd be offered "Schenn" money; but I don't think that's a possibility any longer.

He also had 3 straight sub-50 point seasons before that and had been passed around 5 teams over that 4 year stretch. He was below a 50 point pace in each of those 3 seasons as well. All in all, he had 3 total 50+ point seasons through an 11 year career and was a career 50.4 point pace player when he hit free agency in 2018. He also had a reputation as a playoff disappearing act at that point in his career, scoring just 4 career playoff goals and 23 career points through 57 games. Perron's career through his 30s has been remarkable, but the narrative in 2018 was that the Vegas season was the outlier and he once again disappeared in the playoffs. He was scratched during the Cup Final, although there is dispute about whether it was a healthy scratch or because he was dinged up. He had 1 goal and 8 assists during the Vegas run to the Final and was pretty resoundingly viewed as a passenger on that run.

By comparison, Schwartz has 5 total 50+ point seasons through his 10 year career and and is a career 56.4 point pace player. He also has a noticeably better playoff resume, with 26 goals and 54 points through 84 games. Schwartz has at least 4 goals in each of his last 4 playoff appearances, while Perron had never scored more than 1 goal in a playoff appearance at the time he hit free agency. He also has his name on the Cup, which is a distinct advantage over 2018 Perron.

Schwartz's lack of production this year is certainly not doing his market value any favors, but his resume is substantially better than Perron's was when he hit UFA in 2018. Even if you view them on equal footing as regular season players (at the time of hitting UFA), Schwartz's playoff resume is miles ahead of where Perron's was in 2018. For better or worse (I think worse), GMs in the NHL pay for playoff performances. "Rings in the room" is absolutely a thing and Schwartz has earned a reputation as a playoff performer. His 4 goals last playoffs was tied for the team lead. He led the Cup team in playoff goals and was 2nd in points. He led the team in playoff goals and points in 2017 and was 4th in both categories in 2016. Dude has been very good in the playoffs and that absolutely has tangible value in the UFA market.

To answer your question, Schwartz has every reason to hope for much more than what Perron got. The flat cap is going to limit his earning potential, but if the Blues are offering him a similar contract to Perron's, then he has every reason to believe that he will get a better one on the UFA market.

 

[WATTAGE4451]

He also had 3 straight sub-50 point seasons before that and had been passed around 5 teams over that 4 year stretch. He was below a 50 point pace in each of those 3 seasons as well. All in all, he had 3 total 50+ point seasons through an 11 year career and was a career 50.4 point pace player when he hit free agency in 2018. He also had a reputation as a playoff disappearing act at that point in his career, scoring just 4 career playoff goals and 23 career points through 57 games. Perron's career through his 30s has been remarkable, but the narrative in 2018 was that the Vegas season was the outlier and he once again disappeared in the playoffs. He was scratched during the Cup Final, although there is dispute about whether it was a healthy scratch or because he was dinged up. He had 1 goal and 8 assists during the Vegas run to the Final and was pretty resoundingly viewed as a passenger on that run.

By comparison, Schwartz has 5 total 50+ point seasons through his 10 year career and and is a career 56.4 point pace player. He also has a noticeably better playoff resume, with 26 goals and 54 points through 84 games. Schwartz has at least 4 goals in each of his last 4 playoff appearances, while Perron had never scored more than 1 goal in a playoff appearance at the time he hit free agency. He also has his name on the Cup, which is a distinct advantage over Perron (at the time he hit free agency).

Schwartz's lack of production this year is certainly not doing his market value any favors, but his resume is substantially better than Perron's was when he hit UFA in 2018. Even if you view them on equal footing as regular season players (at the time of hitting UFA), Schwartz's playoff resume is miles ahead of where Perron's was in 2018.

To answer your question, Schwartz has every reason to hope for much more than what Perron got. The flat cap is going to limit his earning potential, but if the Blues are offering him a similar contract to Perron's, then he has every reason to believe that he will get a better one on the UFA market.

Perron had 9 points in 15 games for the golden knights in the playoffs. I do t really see how that was disappearing for them

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Perron had 9 points in 15 games for the golden knights in the playoffs. I do t really see how that was disappearing for them

As I recall, he was a healthy scratch during that run. There were some issues.

 

[BadgersandBlues]

It's getting pretty tough to figure out what to do here. There are a lot of factors that play into this:

1. Looking at our roster construction/salary cap usage, our window is now plus another two years max - at least with our current "core". Perron and Parayko become UFA after next season, Perron will be 33 and Parayko will be 28. The year after, ROR and Tarasenko become UFA. ROR will be 32 years old and Tarasenko will be 31 years old. Giving Perron, ROR, and Tarasenko large contracts past age 31 is a recipe for disaster imo. There's plenty to criticize about the Krug/Faulk/Schenn contracts, but at least they were signed prior to the player turning 30 and were all signed when we believed we had between 3-5 years left on a potential SC winning roster, which was the majority of those contracts.

2. Schwartz has never been a particularly gifted offensive player - most of his points come from hard work. He hasn't scored over 25 goals or over 60 points since 2014-2015 - yes, he's been on pace to score higher, but he's never able to stay healthy enough to break those milestones - this might be an unpopular opinion, but I believe that health is a skill, just like any other. Freak accidents can happen and bodies can break down at any point, but some guys like Schenn and ROR (And while he was here AP) seem to just keep on trucking, but guys like Schwartz just can't seem to stay in the lineup for a full season. 25 goals and 60 points are what he -should- put up in any given season, but he simply hasn't. He's also been sneaky bad on the PP - over the last five years he's been given the fourth highest PP TOI per-game (2:40 per) among forwards, yet he's scored a grand total of 47 points - for comparison, Schenn, who's averaged about the same PP TOI a game since coming to STL four years ago has put up 58 points. Again, that's 11 more points with an entire less year of service, while averaging about the same amount of time on ice.

3. The options behind Schwarz for top 6 LW on our roster are problematic at best and ugly at worst. Perron could shift over to LW, but he's been so effective where he is, do you really want to mess with that? Who's up after that? Hoffman? UFA and probably not returning. Blais? Decent physicality, makes a nice play here and there, but def not a guy you want in the top 6 for an entire season. Sanford? I mean.....yea. Moving on. Schenn is about it, but then we have a massive hole in our top 6 center spot - Thomas isn't ready and Bozak is 34. Maybe we can get a magic run out of him this year, but betting that at age 35 he can handle top 6 center minutes for a full 82 game season plus playoffs is not a sustainable idea and even that is under the assumption we can bring him back on a contract that makes sense.

4. The market for top 6 LW who are prime aged (Let's say 27-31) include some interesting options, but will all probably cost more then Schwartz will (Schwartz will be 29 when his next contract kicks in) or aren't as good as Schwartz. Taylor Hall and Zach Hyman will be 30, RNH, Landeskog, and Saad will all be 29, Tatar and Palmieri will be 31. How many of those guys are even an upgrade to Schwartz? Landeskog and RNH are, but Saad is a slight downgrade and I'm not interested in Tatar and Palmieri. Hyman is playing next to two world class offensive players, I'd bet the farm he doesn't come close to those sort of gaudy offensive numbers without Matthews/Nylander. Hall is still suuuuper interesting, he's looked AMAZING since he got traded to an actual NHL team, but man he's got a big body of work that says he sucks too. Schwartz you know what you're getting at least.

Schwartz's value to the Blues is tied almost entirely to how we view ourselves over the next two years. Does Army think this is a Cup contending team? I'd like to hope so, otherwise he should have moved Schwartz at the deadline for futures. If we are considering ourselves Cup contenders, it really doesn't matter the "comps" out there, b/c Schwartz's intrinsic value to this team is simply too high to let him go over the difference of 500k to 1m AAV. Schwartz might not have done himself any favors this season with his production, but he's in a really good position to negotiate based off positional scarcity and our desire to win.

 

[The Note]

As I recall, he was a healthy scratch during that run. There were some issues.

He was. Also 6 of his 9 points were 6 assists he recorded in the second round against the Sharks. His points/game are not a great way to judge his playoff performance with Vegas.

 

[Brian39]

Perron had 9 points in 15 games for the golden knights in the playoffs. I do t really see how that was disappearing for them

Were you watching the playoffs that year? One of the biggest stories through the playoffs was that he had disappeared. 5 of his 8 assists were secondary assists and another one was on an empty netter. The goal he scored came in the final game of the playoffs and bounced off his body. He was scratched in the Cup final and it was reportedly a healthy scratch. His ice time dropped about a 1:20 a night from his regular season ice time and he was demoted to the 3rd line. The overwhelming consensus around the league was that he disappeared in the playoffs.

Edit: The opening question comes of much snarkier than I intended and I'm not trying to be a dick. I'm genuinely curious whether you were watching the playoffs that year because Perron being disappointing was one of the biggest storylines. I'm wondering whether you disagreed at the time or if you are just looking at the stat line retroactively. I didn't think Perron's play in the playoffs was as poor as the overall consensus, but he certainly wasn't great. I felt that he was very clearly a passenger on that team through their playoff run. He was 8th on the team in points and 14th in goals.

Even if you give him the full benefit of the doubt and don't call it a disappearing act, you are still left with the fact that it was a substantially dip in performance from his regular season and supported the notion that the regular season output was an outlier. It was also the best playoff performance of his career at that point and Schwartz has 3 playoff appearances that are unquestionably better.

 

[Thallis]

Were you watching the playoffs that year? One of the biggest stories through the playoffs was that he had disappeared. 5 of his 8 assists were secondary assists and another one was on an empty netter. The goal he scored came in the final game of the playoffs and bounced off his body. He was scratched in the Cup final and it was reportedly a healthy scratch. His ice time dropped about a minute 20 a night from his regular season ice time and he was demoted to the 3rd line. The overwhelming consensus around the league was that he disappeared in the playoffs.

Reported by whom? He missed time in round 3 with an injury, so even if he could technically suit up for games I don't know what could have fully recovered in that time.

 

[BlueSeal]

Yeah some of the numbers being tossed around in that article were definitely lower than I thought. I still would not want a 6 year deal. At some DA has to stop signing people until they are 34+ years old, particularly when the guys who are already locked up for are not particularly compelling past the next two or so years. I would like Schwartz to stick around, but I would rather pay him $6.5 for 3 years than ~$5 for 6 years. I also have the same concerns about ROR and Perron, but that is probably a different discussion for a different thread.

I agree, 6 years is way too long but if we get him at or under 4.8/yr he could be easily moved. It wouldn't be a contract that would come back and bite us. Now Krug's on the other hand...

 

[Brian39]

Reported by whom? He missed time in round 3 with an injury, so even if he could technically suit up for games I don't know what could have fully recovered in that time.

Pierre Lebrun of the Athletic:

But heading into Game 4 in Washington — with zero goals in a playoff run marred by health issues — Perron was taken out by Vegas Golden Knights head coach Gerard Gallant in what he called a very difficult decision.

“He played great with us last year, he’s a good person, I’m happy for him this year that things are going well,” Gallant told The Athletic this week. “But at that moment, I talked to him and said, `David, we’re going to make the change.’ Tatar was going in, he played a few games and played well. I just didn’t think David was getting to the net enough and we talked about that. He was pretty disappointed. It was a tough thing to do. He was one of our key players all year long. He had a tough playoffs. It was a tough thing to do at the time. But looking at it, I just needed more from him.’’

That is the head coach describing exactly why he was scratched. It was very clearly based on play and not an injury. I think that he had something nagging him, but his head coach very clearly took him out of the lineup because he didn't believe that he was playing well enough.

He played 5 games in between his missed games in round 3 and his scratch in the Cup Final. The scratch came over 2 weeks after his last missed game in round 3. Again, I think he was probably dinged up but there has been no suggestion that he was badly hurt.

Here is Perron's statement from the same article:

I love Gerard, he made a decision,” Perron said this week grudgingly recalling the event. “Would I have liked that decision to be different? Yes, because that moment as far as I’m concerned was the biggest game of our entire season and I would have liked for him to have gone with the players that got him there since the start of the year. Those are the type of conversations I was having with him. I have no issue sharing that with you because I respect his decision.’

He clearly felt fine to play and there has never been a report of a serious injury that we often hear about after the playoffs end. A nagging injury may have been impacting him, but there is every indication that this was a healthy scratch and playing through injuries is the reality/expectation in the playoffs.