Jaden Schwartz’s next contact

[Ted Hoffman]

Schwartz will be 30 years old when he signs. It’s extremely likely his best hockey is behind him. He’s definitely having a bad year which is worse because it’s a contract year. Over the last 3 years (this year included) he’s a .64 p/gp player. If he could play 82 games his total would be 52 points. He never does play 82 games.

These are his numbers before hitting 30. He’s not going to improve over the next 3-4 years let alone 6-7 years. Taking into account all the intangibles I can’t justify anything close to 6 million per season.

Nitpicks:
-- The fact that he "never does play 82 games" is a distraction. Most players don't play 82 games. Schenn didn't play 82 the year we won the Cup. O'Reilly played 82 in '18-19 for the first time in 4 years. If you want to talk about Schwartz's injury history, fine - but then let's talk about that. (Hint: his injures have not generally been "he's made of glass" type injuries like some love to allege.)
-- Schwartz will be 29 when he signs. He's 8 months younger than Schenn.

"Only" 52 points per 82 games would still put him 5th on the team in '17-18 [he had 59 that year for 4th, despite only playing 62 games], 4th in '18-19 behind Schenn [add Perron for a higher rate, he had 46 points in 57 games], and 6th last year when pro-rated to 71 games [he actually had 57 for 4th, just 4 back of team-leading ROR]. Here's all the other players who've "only scored 52 points" in a season the last 5 years: Schwartz, ROR, Schenn, Tarasenko, Perron and Pietrangelo. Stretch and you can add Thomas, who was on pace for 52 points in 82 games last year but only played 66 of the 71 games. Go back another year to '15-16 and we can add Steen who had 52 that year. The only others since 2013-14 who've done it? T.J. Oshie and David Backes.

Talk about "only" 52 points like it's no big deal, but it's not like we're flush with those guys to begin with.

Schenn got 8 years, $52 million about 9 months before his contract was set to expire. Everything you just said about Schwartz and being past his best days and not improving, you could just as easily apply to Schenn. Given hindsight, should we state that 8/52 was too much? Or, is that OK because "Schenn performs, look at his stats" even though his p/gp rate is the lowest it's been since 2014-15 and his best days are likely behind him as well?

 

[shpongle falls]

5.5 x 5

the injury proneness diminishes the value some. huge motor for the team, would really need to pivot without him in the line up permanently

This sounds about right for me given the circumstances.

 

[Louie the Blue]

he didnt carry them vs WPG, he was a ghost for the first 4 games of that series. It was only during Game 5 onwards that he turned it on.

If we’re going to use context, then we should also acknowledge the stud known as ROR was a ghost for pretty much the entire SJ series save for Game 6.

I like Schwartz-his injury history is a concern. His goal scoring concerns me a bit, but I want him to the wear the Note for a while.

 

[TheDizee]

If we’re going to use context, then we should also acknowledge the stud known as ROR was a ghost for pretty much the entire SJ series save for Game 6.

I like Schwartz-his injury history is a concern. His goal scoring concerns me a bit, but I want him to the wear the Note for a while.

I agree. 50 should have won the conn smythe over ROR.

 

[Spektre]

Nitpicks:
-- The fact that he "never does play 82 games" is a distraction. Most players don't play 82 games. Schenn didn't play 82 the year we won the Cup. O'Reilly played 82 in '18-19 for the first time in 4 years. If you want to talk about Schwartz's injury history, fine - but then let's talk about that. (Hint: his injures have not generally been "he's made of glass" type injuries like some love to allege.)
-- Schwartz will be 29 when he signs. He's 8 months younger than Schenn.

"Only" 52 points per 82 games would still put him 5th on the team in '17-18 [he had 59 that year for 4th, despite only playing 62 games], 4th in '18-19 behind Schenn [add Perron for a higher rate, he had 46 points in 57 games], and 6th last year when pro-rated to 71 games [he actually had 57 for 4th, just 4 back of team-leading ROR]. Here's all the other players who've "only scored 52 points" in a season the last 5 years: Schwartz, ROR, Schenn, Tarasenko, Perron and Pietrangelo. Stretch and you can add Thomas, who was on pace for 52 points in 82 games last year but only played 66 of the 71 games. Go back another year to '15-16 and we can add Steen who had 52 that year. The only others since 2013-14 who've done it? T.J. Oshie and David Backes.

Talk about "only" 52 points like it's no big deal, but it's not like we're flush with those guys to begin with.

Schenn got 8 years, $52 million about 9 months before his contract was set to expire. Everything you just said about Schwartz and being past his best days and not improving, you could just as easily apply to Schenn. Given hindsight, should we state that 8/52 was too much? Or, is that OK because "Schenn performs, look at his stats" even though his p/gp rate is the lowest it's been since 2014-15 and his best days are likely behind him as well?

I’m ok with looking at previous years played to gauge what the future should be but not as a means of what to pay the player going forward. The contract should reflect a fair market value of how the player performs. Obviously UFA’s will make more than RFA’s.

I thought the Schenn contract was a little bloated but comparing his contract to Schwartz isn’t a parallel. Schenn has typically been used as a center and centers are more valuable than wingers.

For the record I think Schenn makes a better winger than a center.

If the Blues sign Schwartz for anything close to the Schenn deal the same current diehard Schwartz fans will be losing their minds about the contract within 3 years.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

Again, same things could be said about Schenn. Let's actually get Schwartz under contract, see what he's like in 3 years, then worry about whether anyone is losing their minds. Plus, if we're worried about Schwartz at 32 we damn well better start figuring out how we're going to deal with O'Reilly when he's 32 and making $7.5 million per in the last year of his contract.

 

[Brian39]

people who think hes worth more than schenn are forgetting hes made of glass and usually misses half the season every year

What the hell are you on about? He has missed half the season exactly 1 time in his career. That was the only time in his career that he missed more than 20 games (or in other words, he has played 75% or more of his team's games in 8 of his 9 NHL seasons). It's pretty clear that Schwartz'z size and style makes him prone to injuries, but they are almost always not long-term issues.

and the other half is hit or miss whether he performs or not.

Let's look into his 8 complete NHL seasons (so excluding his 7 games in 2011/12 after his college season ended and this season which is incomplete).

Schwartz has scored at a 20+ goal pace in 6 of those 8 seasons. He failed to reach a 20 goal pace in his rookie season and in 2018/19. He's been at a 25+ goal pace in 4 of those years. Schenn has played at a 20+ goal pace in 5 of his 9 complete seasons and a 25+ goal pace in 4 of those 9 seasons.

Schwartz has scored at a 30+ assist pace in 6 of his 8 seasons (the rookie season is the only exception) and 35+ in 4 of 8. Schenn has been at a 30+ assist pace in 6 of 9 seasons and 35+ in 3 of 9.

Since Schenn joined the Blues, he has been a .786 point per game player while Schwartz has been at .724. Schenn has been a .307 goal per game player while Schwartz has been .266. At 5 on 5, they are pretty much even. Schwartz has a slight edge on Schenn in points, scoring at a rate of 2.00 points per 60 while Schenn is at 1.89 points per 60. Schenn has the edge in goals, scoring .71 goals per 60 while Schenn is at .59 goals per 60.

Schwartz has substantially better possession numbers that are consistently in the league's top 50 and top 3 on our team.

This narrative of Schwartz just not showing up isn't based in reality.

 

[TheDizee]

What the hell are you on about? He has missed half the season exactly 1 time in his career. That was the only time in his career that he missed more than 20 games (or in other words, he has played 75% or more of his team's games in 8 of his 9 NHL seasons). It's pretty clear that Schwartz'z size and style makes him prone to injuries, but they are almost always not long-term issues.


Let's look into his 8 complete NHL seasons (so excluding his 7 games in 2011/12 after his college season ended and this season which is incomplete).

Schwartz has scored at a 20+ goal pace in 6 of those 8 seasons. He failed to reach a 20 goal pace in his rookie season and in 2018/19. He's been at a 25+ goal pace in 4 of those years. Schenn has played at a 20+ goal pace in 5 of his 9 complete seasons and a 25+ goal pace in 4 of those 9 seasons.

Schwartz has scored at a 30+ assist pace in 6 of his 8 seasons (the rookie season is the only exception) and 35+ in 4 of 8. Schenn has been at a 30+ assist pace in 6 of 9 seasons and 35+ in 3 of 9.

Since Schenn joined the Blues, he has been a .786 point per game player while Schwartz has been at .724. Schenn has been a .307 goal per game player while Schwartz has been .266. At 5 on 5, they are pretty much even. Schwartz has a slight edge on Schenn in points, scoring at a rate of 2.00 points per 60 while Schenn is at 1.89 points per 60. Schenn has the edge in goals, scoring .71 goals per 60 while Schenn is at .59 goals per 60.

Schwartz has substantially better possession numbers that are consistently in the league's top 50 and top 3 on our team.

This narrative of Schwartz just not showing up isn't based in reality.

thanks for proving my point. schenn outperforms him and is healthier. thus he will get paid more.

good work

 

[TheDizee]

hes talking about Schwartz

 

[Brian39]

thanks for proving my point. schenn outperforms him and is healthier. thus he will get paid more.

good work

Yeah, so long as you ignore the rate of 20+ goal seasons, 25+ goal seasons, 30+ assist seasons, 35+ assist seasons, even strength production and possession stats!

And lets not forget how much better Schwartz has been in the playoffs: .643 points per career playoff game while Schenn is sitting at .525. Schwartz has doubled up Schenn in playoff goals during Schenn's tenure as a Blue and has a 24-17 point lead.

 

[Frenzy31]

My fear with Schwartz is his head. Losing his father, after his sister earlier in his career.

He hasn’t been the same player this year as he has in the past.

 

[Mike Liut]

I dont know who would be available, but I’d almost rather let Schwartz walk and add more size and physicality. We are getting away from Blues hockey that won the cup.

 

[simon IC]

I love Jaden Schwartz, I really do. He is work ethic embodied. But we have too many anchor contracts. We just can't give him a long contract.

 

[Ranksu]

I love Jaden Schwartz, I really do. He is work ethic embodied. But we have too many anchor contracts. We just can't give him a long contract.

What are our anchor contracts?

 

[simon IC]

What are our anchor contracts?

Krug, Faulk, and Schenn. Yes, I included Schenn. Schenn is the only one of those three whose contract might age well. I actually doubt it, because he plays a very physical style, and although he has proven to be durable thus far, I really think it will catch up with him. Faulk is playing his heart out right now, for which I give him full credit, but I honestly think it is because he is trying to prove a point. I am skeptical he can sustain that intensity, and I think the last years of his contract are going to be an anchor. Krug was not worthy of a lifetime contract from the get-go. I think his contract is going to be a burden sooner than later. Possibly as early as next season.

 

[Renard]

Schwartz has us over a barrel. Who do we have in the system to take his place?

 

[Stealth JD]

I love Jaden Schwartz, I really do. He is work ethic embodied. But we have too many anchor contracts. We just can't give him a long contract.

It would be fitting if the Blues had to let a core roster player walk (again) because they chose to invest in other, inferior players. Usually Army admits his mistakes and pushes them off onto some other schlub somehow; I'd expect him to do so here rather than let Schwartz walk because there's no money left to pay him.

 

[JoshFromMO]

Krug, Faulk, and Schenn. Yes, I included Schenn. Schenn is the only one of those three whose contract might age well. I actually doubt it, because he plays a very physical style, and although he has proven to be durable thus far, I really think it will catch up with him. Faulk is playing his heart out right now, for which I give him full credit, but I honestly think it is because he is trying to prove a point. I am skeptical he can sustain that intensity, and I think the last years of his contract are going to be an anchor. Krug was not worthy of a lifetime contract from the get-go. I think his contract is going to be a burden sooner than later. Possibly as early as next season.

We might as well load up on anchors that all expire in the same off season and then boom we are flush with cap space or veterans free to be used as rentals

 

[jura]

 

[Spektre]

What does this mean? Maroon arguably scored the biggest goal in the history of the Blues franchise. When he enters into contract negotiations does he whip out his phone and show a Twitter clip of the goal and expect a blank check??

I don’t get it

 

[BlueSeal]

What does this mean? Maroon arguably scored the biggest goal in the history of the Blues franchise. When he enters into contract negotiations does he whip out his phone and show a Twitter clip of the goal and expect a blank check??

I don’t get it

Pat Maroon didn't do jack. The Bolts wanted him back enough to give him a 900k x 2 contract with an NTC. Blues could have given him 900k x 2 and he would have stayed but they didn't, which worked out for him. Back-To-Back Cup baby lol.

Fans love Pat. His teammates love him. The franchise loves him. Pat isn't looking for cash as much as looking for term and he would have easily taken league minimum x 3 years to stay in St. Louis so he could be here with his son. The guy wants to play and no one on earth is taking that puck away from him, probably his greatest asset outside of his high locker room morale.

With Jaden, you're purposely being blind because the facts don't match your narrative. IMO and I'll go to war on this, Jaden is our most consistent player outside of maybe DP. He's more well-rounded than Tarasenko and tougher. I don't see how a contract of 4.5-5.5 is a terrible contract for someone who =I= personally feel is a gifted and talented player.

 

[Frenzy31]

5.5 is a reasonable contract. Especially given his production this year. 6 years at 5.5 is great. But will he take it.

If he wants over 6, do you let him walk? Where is the line for you?

 

[Thallis]

5.5 is a reasonable contract. Especially given his production this year. 6 years at 5.5 is great. But will he take it.

If he wants over 6, do you let him walk? Where is the line for you?

Schenn contract is my line. Hopefully with less term, but Schwartz is a younger and better player than Schenn.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

5.5 is a reasonable contract. Especially given his production this year. 6 years at 5.5 is great. But will he take it.

If he wants over 6, do you let him walk? Where is the line for you?

5.5x5 is my absolute top end. Covid has changed cap landscape since Schenn signed.

 

[Louie the Blue]

It would be fitting if the Blues had to let a core roster player walk (again) because they chose to invest in other, inferior players. Usually Army admits his mistakes and pushes them off onto some other schlub somehow; I'd expect him to do so here rather than let Schwartz walk because there's no money left to pay him.

Please name one instance aside from the dead horse involving Petro where that’s been the case.

Letting Backes leave was the right move. As was Brouwer. Those are the only other “core” players I can think of that Armstrong let leave without getting anything in return, which includes Shattenkirk and Armstrong absolutely nuking his value.

If your argument is Armstrong is stubborn and doesn’t budge and it costs the team long term, fine. I get it. But to act as if 1 specific move is his long term record in St. Louis is short sighted.