Ted Hoffman
Done
- Dec 15, 2002
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Nitpicks:Schwartz will be 30 years old when he signs. It’s extremely likely his best hockey is behind him. He’s definitely having a bad year which is worse because it’s a contract year. Over the last 3 years (this year included) he’s a .64 p/gp player. If he could play 82 games his total would be 52 points. He never does play 82 games.
These are his numbers before hitting 30. He’s not going to improve over the next 3-4 years let alone 6-7 years. Taking into account all the intangibles I can’t justify anything close to 6 million per season.
-- The fact that he "never does play 82 games" is a distraction. Most players don't play 82 games. Schenn didn't play 82 the year we won the Cup. O'Reilly played 82 in '18-19 for the first time in 4 years. If you want to talk about Schwartz's injury history, fine - but then let's talk about that. (Hint: his injures have not generally been "he's made of glass" type injuries like some love to allege.)
-- Schwartz will be 29 when he signs. He's 8 months younger than Schenn.
"Only" 52 points per 82 games would still put him 5th on the team in '17-18 [he had 59 that year for 4th, despite only playing 62 games], 4th in '18-19 behind Schenn [add Perron for a higher rate, he had 46 points in 57 games], and 6th last year when pro-rated to 71 games [he actually had 57 for 4th, just 4 back of team-leading ROR]. Here's all the other players who've "only scored 52 points" in a season the last 5 years: Schwartz, ROR, Schenn, Tarasenko, Perron and Pietrangelo. Stretch and you can add Thomas, who was on pace for 52 points in 82 games last year but only played 66 of the 71 games. Go back another year to '15-16 and we can add Steen who had 52 that year. The only others since 2013-14 who've done it? T.J. Oshie and David Backes.
Talk about "only" 52 points like it's no big deal, but it's not like we're flush with those guys to begin with.
Schenn got 8 years, $52 million about 9 months before his contract was set to expire. Everything you just said about Schwartz and being past his best days and not improving, you could just as easily apply to Schenn. Given hindsight, should we state that 8/52 was too much? Or, is that OK because "Schenn performs, look at his stats" even though his p/gp rate is the lowest it's been since 2014-15 and his best days are likely behind him as well?