StevenToddIves
Registered User
I’d have a very tough time investing a first or second round pick in a defender with average wheels (which likely means they will be below average in the NHL if he doesn’t work with maximum effort on that) who is a subpar defender. That’s at least one physical trait he may not overcome and his lack of urgency does not give me confidence he will put in the mental effort to learn the skills he can control. Now having said that I haven’t watched any video or seen him in any games. This is just my thought on player selection in general. I’ll gamble on physically limited guys who are highly competitive and have a good attitude and some element of humility that will allow them to accept critical input and work on things. That’s a guy like Butcher who will go as far as his physical limitations allow but at least he will be smart and give his all. If Poirrier is not a try hard I wouldn’t put him in that category. As always thanks for sharing this stuff. Really appreciated during this time of public crisis.
Needless to say, as the NYC bars have closed I have more time to analyze draft prospects.
Again, Poirier is certainly an interesting prospect. I'd rank his upside as a superstar offensive defenseman with 60-point capability. But he's as far from his upside as any defenseman in the entire draft. Poirier has several red flags to eliminate if he is even to make the NHL. Two years ago, we had another big-upside offensive defenseman in Ryan Merkley who is comparable in that they both were horror shows defensively with compete level issues -- but Merkley was also a terrific skater. Merkley went late in the first round to San Jose despite being generally considered a top 10 talent. Poirier also adds skating issues, which renders him unable to recover after making an all-too-common mistake with his gap control or positioning. But I would add that Poirier's hands and shot are even better than Merkley's -- Poirier legitimately has the hands/shot-release combo of not a defenseman but rather an elite NHL forward.
Personally -- and I've said these things countless times on these HF boards -- I'm willing to take these sorts of chances with forwards. Last year, I had Arthur Kaliyev ranked higher than most. With a scoring winger of huge potential, I think a team is wise to gamble on a guy even if there are questions about his 200-foot game. With a defenseman, I'm not so willing. To me, a poor defensive winger with high offensive skill will still generate more goals for his team than he will allow for the opposition. Conversely, I think a defenseman who is a liability defensively is not only an oxymoron, but also a detriment -- the three or four high-danger scoring chances per game they generate will be overwhelmed by the litany of scoring chances their shortcomings allow to the opposition. For this reason, I would not endorse Poirier for a first round pick by a team I root for, even if he fell into the late 20's. I hope he figures it out and develops more of a complete game which will allow his offensive excellence to truly shine, but he's just so far off from that point that it's difficult for me to see the light at the end of the tunnel.