Player Discussion: Ivan Provorov

[Iron Balls McGinty]

I am a big fan of defense and have been complaining about our defense for years. Provorov is not the answer.

Fair enough, but I don't think he's the problem either. He's not the same player Philly drafted him to be considering he was picked 1 spot before Werenski but he provides different value in the league.

I also think that if we are to be a winner in the next couple of years, I don't know who the replacement is that helps us do that. And no, Mateychuk is not the replacement. I think keeping both of them makes us closer to consistent defensive play than only having one of them. I don't think it is a coincidence that the defense has played better with both of them and Z in the lineup.

Is there a capable fit out there that would be cheaper? Maybe but unproven risk has its own price. NJ got lucky with value shopping with Kovecevic but I think if you can get Provorov close to the 6 yr deal and realitically a bit higher AAV than what Pesce did for NJ you do it. We don't know what his motivations are outside of knowing he'd like to stay here. It's all spitballing speculation that he'll require 8 years to stay.

Whatever DW does, he'd better have a plan. Letting him go without an upgrade plan should not be an option because regression in this team space is not going to be acceptable.

 

[majormajor]

NJ got lucky with value shopping with Kovecevic but I think if you can get Provorov close to the 6 yr deal and realitically a bit higher AAV than what Pesce did for NJ you do it.

I haven't watched him with NJ but analytically Kovacevic is a gem. And an impending UFA. He sounds more appealing to me than Provorov. Much better defensive quality.

He is an unusual story - when he came up in Winnipeg there was a lot of chatter about how surprisingly well he was playing for a low ranked player, but then they choose to waive him in the numbers game. Same thing in Montreal, people widely notice how good he is playing, but in the roster crunch they let him go.

 

[koteka]

Is there a capable fit out there that would be cheaper? Maybe but unproven risk has its own price.

My short term replacement might be Savard. He shouldn’t cost much if Montreal is out and he’ll be a UFA if we want a 1 year plan. A guy I have my eye on as a back up plan / medium term solution if we can’t get a bigger fish is Jalen Chatfield of the Canes. I think he could be a 2RD for us and we have the assets to make a trade with Carolina.

I’d rather replace Provorov with a right D. And I want to go big game hunting in the off season.

Also, you should not expect 2024-25 Provorov if he signs more than a 1 year contract. You should expect not in-a-contract-year hated-by-all-of-Philadelphia or making-Columbus-regret-the-trade type Provorov.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

I haven't watched him with NJ but analytically Kovacevic is a gem. And an impending UFA. He sounds more appealing to me than Provorov. Much better defensive quality.

He is an unusual story - when he came up in Winnipeg there was a lot of chatter about how surprisingly well he was playing for a low ranked player, but then they choose to waive him in the numbers game. Same thing in Montreal, people widely notice how good he is playing, but in the roster crunch they let him go.

he passes the eye test but i'm skeptical of any analytical darling defenseman on the devils after severson's huge year there.

 

[majormajor]

My short term replacement might be Savard. He shouldn’t cost much if Montreal is out and he’ll be a UFA if we want a 1 year plan.

I think he's in the severely washed stage at this point.

 

[koteka]

I think he's in the severely washed stage at this point.

I was thinking so, but his numbers look decent this season. You wouldn’t put him in for 22 minutes/game. But PK, teach some stuff to the young D, good guy in the locker room, etc. Again, cheap back up plan and maybe a JMFJ replacement next year. I’d much rather make a huge hockey trade and bring in a fish. But then my current list of untradeable guys starts and ends with Werenski, so I am not your typical CBJ HF poster.

 

[majormajor]

I was thinking so, but his numbers look decent this season. You wouldn’t put him in for 22 minutes/game. But PK, teach some stuff to the young D, good guy in the locker room, etc. Again, cheap back up plan and maybe a JMFJ replacement next year. I’d much rather make a huge hockey trade and bring in a fish. But then my current list of untradeable guys starts and ends with Werenski, so I am not your typical CBJ HF poster.

As a JJ replacement I'd love to have Savard. That's the category he fits in for me.

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

he passes the eye test but i'm skeptical of any analytical darling defenseman on the devils after severson's huge year there.

I don’t think Severson ever had a huge year there. Jarmo paid him after a season playing 3rd pair minutes. And NJ fans all know the same mistakes we’ve seen from him.

 

[majormajor]

I don’t think Severson ever had a huge year there. Jarmo paid him after a season playing 3rd pair minutes.

This is becoming a myth. He averaged 20 minutes a night in his last season in New Jersey. Only really nominally third pair.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

I don’t think Severson ever had a huge year there. Jarmo paid him after a season playing 3rd pair minutes. And NJ fans all know the same mistakes we’ve seen from him.

this was the dom card for him his last year in NJ

werenski's from that same year:

the models that year said his impact was worth $2m more than werenski's.

the analytical models generally don't do a great job of quantifying the impact of very good or very bad teams on individual metrics. that's why i'm skeptical of the analytical profiles of basically any NJD defender (heavily inflated due to team quality + play style)

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

This is becoming a myth. He averaged 20 minutes a night in his last season in New Jersey. Only really nominally third pair.

NJ actually plays 3 pairs pretty evenly but he was on sheltered minutes that season. There were 5 D on that team averages 19:57 (his number) and higher per game. He's was 4th in total ice time on that team, barely ahead of Ryan Graves that everyone used to drool over here. He led the Devils in ice time in the 3 previous seasons at 22:58, 22:29 and 23:36.

HIs usage in the D was changed that season when they got Dougie Hamilton and John Marino and there is no denying that.

this was the dom card for him his last year in NJ

werenski's from that same year:

the models that year said his impact was worth $2m more than werenski's.

the analytical models generally don't do a great job of quantifying the impact of very good or very bad teams on individual metrics. that's why i'm skeptical of the analytical profiles of basically any NJD defender (heavily inflated due to team quality + play style)

The biggest difference is Werenki was a top pair guy and Severson was not in NJ. Jarmo signed him to be a top pair guy and it hasn't worked. When he was a top pair guy in NJ was when that team was really bad.

 

[majormajor]

NJ actually plays 3 pairs pretty evenly but he was on sheltered minutes that season. There were 5 D on that team averages 19:57 (his number) and higher per game. He's was 4th in total ice time on that team, barely ahead of Ryan Graves that everyone used to drool over here. He led the Devils in ice time in the 3 previous seasons at 22:58, 22:29 and 23:36.

HIs usage in the D was changed that season when they got Dougie Hamilton and John Marino and there is no denying that.

Yes, that's why I called it "nominal third pair". It really is an important distinction - there really is a big difference between him playing 20 minutes a night and him playing 16 minutes a night. Whether he was a few seconds behind Marino and Hamilton on average is maybe not that important, the coach essentially played them evenly.

 

[thebus88]

Fair enough, but I don't think he's the problem either. He's not the same player Philly drafted him to be considering he was picked 1 spot before Werenski but he provides different value in the league.

Nobody is saying he’s a “problem”, just that the defense can be built quite a bit better, and pretty easily. Provorov is an offensive defenseman. He’s a “good” two way player, but, should not be looked at as “good” defensively, IMO. A guy like Gudbranson fits in this team BETTER, simply because of what he brings in the defensive zone, around the net, and on the PK.

I also think that if we are to be a winner in the next couple of years, I don't know who the replacement is that helps us do that. And no, Mateychuk is not the replacement.

PLEASE elaborate. IMO, Mateychuk is the MAIN reason why we can move on from Provorov. He’s essentially the same exact type of player, just much younger, much cheaper, and a BETTER player.

I think keeping both of them makes us closer to consistent defensive play than only having one of them. I don't think it is a coincidence that the defense has played better with both of them and Z in the lineup.

Well, no, there’s no coincidence and again, nobody is saying he hurts the team worse than our worst defenseman. They are all clearly better than guys like Harris, Johnson, and Christiansen (marginally imo) let alone other guys seeing time on defense. Both Mateychuk and Provorov (and Severson imo) would be wasted playing a 3rd pairing role and minutes and/ or without PP time. Provorov shouldn’t be playing PP minutes on this team, and shouldn’t be playing PK minutes in general. His added value comes from his offense, and we DO NOT need that.

Whatever DW does, he'd better have a plan. Letting him go without an upgrade plan should not be an option because regression in this team space is not going to be acceptable.

Denton Mateychuk. It’s that simple.

Money WILL need to be spent elsewhere.

 

[majormajor]

Nobody is saying he’s a “problem”, just that the defense can’t be built quite a bit better, and pretty easily. Provorov is an offensive defenseman.

Lol I don't think he's that either. Provides very little offense, gets tunnel vision when he's carrying the puck.

I think he's a very average player at both ends.

 

[CBJx614]

To go back to the conversation of signing Provy to an 8 year deal, id be okay with it if we didn't already have Severson tied up long term and if we didn't already have a handful of guys who can potentially take over his minutes for 1/4 of the cap hit. It might take a season or two for some of them to stop making rookie mistakes and finish growing(cultivating mass), but id rather bet on guys like Mateychuk, or Hunt to fill that role rather than be stuck with Provorov for 4-5 years of his plays starts to fall-off and then what deals or moves are we preventing stuck with that cap. Just because we have it doesn't mean we should use it for the sake of having it.


I think if teams get into a bidding war and we get offers of a 1st + 3rdish range that you take it.

If we're still in the playoff race and you truly wanna make some noise I think you have to keep him. It's the playoffs, injuries WILL happen. It's not always the teams with the most skill that win, sometimes it's the teams that can stay healthy or at least have the depth to pickup the slack.

 

[VT]

As a JJ replacement I'd love to have Savard. That's the category he fits in for me.

Savard wants to stay in Montréal for the sake of the children (so they can grow up in a French environment). Besides, I doubt Hughes will trade him to his rival's team.

I would like so that Provorov stays if a contract is right.

 

[DankoCBJ]

I say this is quite accurate. Trading him is the right move.

 

[spintheblackcircle]

PLEASE elaborate. IMO, Mateychuk is the MAIN reason why we can move on from Provorov. He’s essentially the same exact type of player, just much younger, much cheaper, and a BETTER player.

No, he isn't.

He will be better eventually, but he is not now.

Plus, you are not replacing Ivan with Mateychuk. Mateychuk is already there. You would be replacing Provorov with Harris.

 

[Aaaarrgghh]

No, he isn't.

He will be better eventually, but he is not now.

Plus, you are not replacing Ivan with Mateychuk. Mateychuk is already there. You would be replacing Provorov with Harris.

Or Hunt. But that's in the short run. In the long run you're replacing him with whoever you could get for that extra 1st round pick*. The Blue Jackets have no business sacrificing the long run.

Waddell is not going to say that Provorov is going to be traded while they are deep in a playoff hunt. But I can't see that they keep him. He will and should want a long-term deal. He's not a long-term fit in Columbus.

It's about striking a balance. If Waddell can get an Andersson, a Carlo or a Miller at the trade deadline, I think that's the optimal scenario for him.

*NB: If the Boeser rumours are true, I can see a Boeser-for-Provorov deal happen.

 

[spintheblackcircle]

I am not looking long-term, I want this team to make the playoffs this year. I have no problem dealing Provorov, but you’re gonna have to get a second pairing guy in at the same time if they want to make the playoffs

 

[Aaaarrgghh]

I am not looking long-term, I want this team to make the playoffs this year. I have no problem dealing Provorov, but you’re gonna have to get a second pairing guy in at the same time if they want to make the playoffs

And I want them to win Stanley Cups in the future.

 

[DankoCBJ]

Metro-Rival Caps did some TDL moves too when they were in the mix last season and they got in the playoffs.

I think Provorov is not that impactful. We can do it without him.

 

[koteka]

Savard wants to stay in Montréal for the sake of the children (so they can grow up in a French environment). Besides, I doubt Hughes will trade him to his rival's team.

I would like so that Provorov stays if a contract is right.

They have had 3 1/2 years in Montreal with French speaking parents, so I expect the kids all speak French fluently. We also have a French immersion school in Columbus that Savard knows about because he has visited it.

Blue Jackets: Dubois, Savard enjoy field trip to French Immersion School

The Blue Jackets going well beyond the game Monday at the Ecole Kenwood French Immersion School as Quebec natives Pierre-Luc Dubois and David Savard share their french dialect with students. You might need some subtitles, but it was a different spin on your usual school visit. The CBJ regulars...

myfox28columbus.com

 

[VT]

They have had 3 1/2 years in Montreal with French speaking parents, so I expect the kids all speak French fluently. We also have a French immersion school in Columbus that Savard knows about because he has visited it.

Blue Jackets: Dubois, Savard enjoy field trip to French Immersion School

The Blue Jackets going well beyond the game Monday at the Ecole Kenwood French Immersion School as Quebec natives Pierre-Luc Dubois and David Savard share their french dialect with students. You might need some subtitles, but it was a different spin on your usual school visit. The CBJ regulars...

myfox28columbus.com

Savard said that in English-speaking environments, children have begun to use English more than French.

 

[MoeBartoli]

If I’m Provorov I’m looking for a 7-8 year deal. If I’m Waddell I’m saying sorry, no way. Ypu can’t have two guys looked into long term deals when one is going to be on the 3rd pair. Time to cash in on the asset and move on.