Player Discussion: Ivan Provorov

[Iron Balls McGinty]

I am a big fan of defense and have been complaining about our defense for years. Provorov is not the answer.

Fair enough, but I don't think he's the problem either. He's not the same player Philly drafted him to be considering he was picked 1 spot before Werenski but he provides different value in the league.

I also think that if we are to be a winner in the next couple of years, I don't know who the replacement is that helps us do that. And no, Mateychuk is not the replacement. I think keeping both of them makes us closer to consistent defensive play than only having one of them. I don't think it is a coincidence that the defense has played better with both of them and Z in the lineup.

Is there a capable fit out there that would be cheaper? Maybe but unproven risk has its own price. NJ got lucky with value shopping with Kovecevic but I think if you can get Provorov close to the 6 yr deal and realitically a bit higher AAV than what Pesce did for NJ you do it. We don't know what his motivations are outside of knowing he'd like to stay here. It's all spitballing speculation that he'll require 8 years to stay.

Whatever DW does, he'd better have a plan. Letting him go without an upgrade plan should not be an option because regression in this team space is not going to be acceptable.

 

[majormajor]

NJ got lucky with value shopping with Kovecevic but I think if you can get Provorov close to the 6 yr deal and realitically a bit higher AAV than what Pesce did for NJ you do it.

I haven't watched him with NJ but analytically Kovacevic is a gem. And an impending UFA. He sounds more appealing to me than Provorov. Much better defensive quality.

He is an unusual story - when he came up in Winnipeg there was a lot of chatter about how surprisingly well he was playing for a low ranked player, but then they choose to waive him in the numbers game. Same thing in Montreal, people widely notice how good he is playing, but in the roster crunch they let him go.

 

[koteka]

Is there a capable fit out there that would be cheaper? Maybe but unproven risk has its own price.

My short term replacement might be Savard. He shouldn’t cost much if Montreal is out and he’ll be a UFA if we want a 1 year plan. A guy I have my eye on as a back up plan / medium term solution if we can’t get a bigger fish is Jalen Chatfield of the Canes. I think he could be a 2RD for us and we have the assets to make a trade with Carolina.

I’d rather replace Provorov with a right D. And I want to go big game hunting in the off season.

Also, you should not expect 2024-25 Provorov if he signs more than a 1 year contract. You should expect not in-a-contract-year hated-by-all-of-Philadelphia or making-Columbus-regret-the-trade type Provorov.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

I haven't watched him with NJ but analytically Kovacevic is a gem. And an impending UFA. He sounds more appealing to me than Provorov. Much better defensive quality.

He is an unusual story - when he came up in Winnipeg there was a lot of chatter about how surprisingly well he was playing for a low ranked player, but then they choose to waive him in the numbers game. Same thing in Montreal, people widely notice how good he is playing, but in the roster crunch they let him go.

he passes the eye test but i'm skeptical of any analytical darling defenseman on the devils after severson's huge year there.

 

[majormajor]

My short term replacement might be Savard. He shouldn’t cost much if Montreal is out and he’ll be a UFA if we want a 1 year plan.

I think he's in the severely washed stage at this point.

 

[koteka]

I think he's in the severely washed stage at this point.

I was thinking so, but his numbers look decent this season. You wouldn’t put him in for 22 minutes/game. But PK, teach some stuff to the young D, good guy in the locker room, etc. Again, cheap back up plan and maybe a JMFJ replacement next year. I’d much rather make a huge hockey trade and bring in a fish. But then my current list of untradeable guys starts and ends with Werenski, so I am not your typical CBJ HF poster.

 

[majormajor]

I was thinking so, but his numbers look decent this season. You wouldn’t put him in for 22 minutes/game. But PK, teach some stuff to the young D, good guy in the locker room, etc. Again, cheap back up plan and maybe a JMFJ replacement next year. I’d much rather make a huge hockey trade and bring in a fish. But then my current list of untradeable guys starts and ends with Werenski, so I am not your typical CBJ HF poster.

As a JJ replacement I'd love to have Savard. That's the category he fits in for me.

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

he passes the eye test but i'm skeptical of any analytical darling defenseman on the devils after severson's huge year there.

I don’t think Severson ever had a huge year there. Jarmo paid him after a season playing 3rd pair minutes. And NJ fans all know the same mistakes we’ve seen from him.

 

[majormajor]

I don’t think Severson ever had a huge year there. Jarmo paid him after a season playing 3rd pair minutes.

This is becoming a myth. He averaged 20 minutes a night in his last season in New Jersey. Only really nominally third pair.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

I don’t think Severson ever had a huge year there. Jarmo paid him after a season playing 3rd pair minutes. And NJ fans all know the same mistakes we’ve seen from him.

this was the dom card for him his last year in NJ

werenski's from that same year:

the models that year said his impact was worth $2m more than werenski's.

the analytical models generally don't do a great job of quantifying the impact of very good or very bad teams on individual metrics. that's why i'm skeptical of the analytical profiles of basically any NJD defender (heavily inflated due to team quality + play style)