Buffalo Bills It's the Off-Season. Go.

[DolanPlsGoSabres]

We can never have 2 Josh Allens now

 

[Zman5778]

Mel Kiper's two-round mock draft: Three trades up for QBs and how the Chargers could earn an 'A'

As the 2024 NFL draft inches closer, Mel Kiper is back for a new set of predictions, this time projecting two rounds of picks.

www.espn.com

28. Buffalo Bills​

Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU

What, exactly, is the Bills' plan at wide receiver? They just traded Stefon Diggs, and they let Gabe Davis walk in free agency. Khalil Shakir, Curtis Samuel and Mack Hollins top their depth chart at the position. Could Buffalo be a team to watch for a trade up into the top 10 for either Rome Odunze or Malik Nabers? I wouldn't rule it out, but it would be costly, likely forcing the franchise to sacrifice its 2025 first-rounder.


In this scenario, though, a talented wideout could fall into the Bills' lap. Thomas was an incredible vertical threat for Jayden Daniels last season, leading the country in touchdown catches with 17, 10 of which came on go routes or fades. He ran a stellar 4.33-second 40 at the combine. He could be a legit No. 1 WR, which quarterback Josh Allen now needs.

60. Buffalo Bills​

Cole Bishop, S, Utah

The Bills moved on from veteran safety duo Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer this offseason, and they have long-term questions at the position. Bishop has some versatility -- he even played some off-ball linebacker for the Utes -- and he's a great blitzer. He had 7.5 career sacks and had 25 presses over the past two seasons, one of the best marks in the FBS for a defensive back.

Yeah, it's a Kiper draft. JPJ goes 47. Worthy goes 23rd as the 4th WR off the board.

 

[Husko]

Just a couple of nuggets I would add:

- Corley may be the YAC King, but he is a slot-heavy guy that may not have the route running ability to win on the outside.

- Burton is a guy who will be hugely affected by character questions from what I have heard. His tape is great. But, there are people saying that teams have off the field questions about him.

Yeah, Corley has a profile that's very scary. Sure sometimes you get a Rice. Sometimes you get a guy like Moore, Moore, Toney, etc. All your college catches being within 5 yards of the LOS is one of the most damning stats projecting you being a good pro.

 

[Jim Bob]

 

[Rowley Birkin]

I’ve been really confused by all the love Keon Coleman gets, but I listened to a whole bunch of draft podcasts on wide receivers while I drove to wny and back this weekend and heard an explanation. He’s extremely role dependent. He’s not an X. He needs to be working inside, using his big body over the middle where he has a little space, because he will not create separation outside. He just isn’t quick enough. Rashee Rice’s usage in KC was mentioned a lot. They have similarities in strengths and weaknesses even if they are different players. I don’t think that fits the Bills needs much.

Based on all the reading I’ve done, and on about 7 hours of experts weighing in, and on the data, I’ve come away with a pretty short list of players that fit the Bills needs to stretch vertically, win against press man on the outside and be baseline competent (or have potential) in the run game.

Unordered. These are style fits, not rankings.
Xavier Legette
Javon Baker
AD Mitchell
BTJ
Jermaine Burton (probably not a personality fit)
Troy Franklin
Dez Walker

Secondarily, there are guys who, while seemingly redundant with Shakir and Samuel, offer the versatility that Joe Brady has historically favored.
Ladd McConkey
Ricky Pearsall
Malik Washington
Ainias Smith
Jalen McMillan

Thirdly, there are players who offer unique traits (to the Bills) that could open options in a Horizontal timing scheme, which it isn’t clear to me that Josh is particularly adept at, but which does make some sense.
Keon Coleman
Brendan Rice
Malachi Corley
Xavier Worthy (also notable that he stretches the field in ways nobody else on this list do)

Fourth, if the Bills think they are set at their top two(three if you count Kincaid) receiving options. This is not impossible, but, to me, it’d be weird to think Shakir/Samuel/Kincaid is ready to step into being the focal point of the offense and bet the entire season on it. In this case you are just adding guys that’ll come on the field as the 4th wide receiver to beat the zone on 3rd and long.
Tahj Washington
Jamari Thrash
Bub Means
Joshua Cephs
Luke McCaffrey
Jaelynn Polk



And lastly, pure slots, which I just can’t see the Bills going for.
Roman Wilson
Jacob Cowing


Most notably, if one of these guys has the potential to be your number one, all situations WR, even if it’s not going to be in year one, the list is extremely limited.
BTJ
AD Mitchell
Jermaine Burton

Now, of course this is wrong. History tells us somebody else listed above is going to exceed expectations and become the next Amon Ra St Brown, Stefon Diggs, Tyreek Hill, Antonio Brown, Steve Smith etc. My personal opinion on guys who I’d draft for their listed role but elevate in my rankings because I think they may have the goods to be “the guy” goes like this (unordered):
Malik Washington
Rickey Pearsall
Xavier Legette

All three of those guys were guys that were the focal points of their offenses and still produced. They all have concerns (one year of production, size, lack of big time production) that have plausible explanations. But those are my guys.

My ultimate takeaway…
The Bills should first try as hard as hell to get up for Rome Odunze. Josh and him are a perfect fit, and he completely changes the offense by being on the field.

Failing that, trade down out of the first, so you can take two swings and still get the DT, DE, IOL, S and CBs you need.

Great analysis. On the whole I agree with mostly everything, with a few obvious exceptions.

Most notably Polk - but we discussed him earlier. Even if you think he is Gabe Davis 2.0.... that doesn't make him a bit part WR4. It actually makes him a pretty good fit.

IMO nobody needs to be an all situations WR1. Not Shakir, not Samuel, not whoever is drafted later this month, not anybody. That isn't the way this team needs to be constructed any more. This is also why whatever the cost to trade up for Odunze is, it will be too much.

One notable omission in your analysis though - where does Johnny Wilson rank? I mean, you even included Ainias Smith who I've regularly taken with a late day 3 pick in mocks to be a return specialist / STer, but not Wilson. Guy gives me DK vibes...

If at this point i had to pick 'my guy' - it would be one of the below:

Risk but worthy reward pick = Legette
Safe pick = Polk
Sleeper / swing for fences pick = J Wilson

 

[Rowley Birkin]

2 or 3 are great... 1 & 4 not so much.

Mel Kiper's two-round mock draft: Three trades up for QBs and how the Chargers could earn an 'A'

As the 2024 NFL draft inches closer, Mel Kiper is back for a new set of predictions, this time projecting two rounds of picks.

www.espn.com

Yeah, it's a Kiper draft. JPJ goes 47. Worthy goes 23rd as the 4th WR off the board.

Kiper takes way too much heat IMO. He's like the NFL's answer to Pierre McGuire.... I like them both in the same way i used to cheer for the heels when watching wrestling as a kid.

This would be a great draft. BTJ is fine value at #28 & Bishop is a guy i really like, who I've not seen discussed in this thread at all to this point.

 

[Der Jaeger]

Rice is going to go higher than his draft rankings, and after reading the Beast, I'm even more sure of it. Same conclusion as I had: he's going to be a better pro than collegian.

 

[truthbluth]

Great analysis. On the whole I agree with mostly everything, with a few obvious exceptions.

Most notably Polk - but we discussed him earlier. Even if you think he is Gabe Davis 2.0.... that doesn't make him a bit part WR4. It actually makes him a pretty good fit.

IMO nobody needs to be an all situations WR1. Not Shakir, not Samuel, not whoever is drafted later this month, not anybody. That isn't the way this team needs to be constructed any more. This is also why whatever the cost to trade up for Odunze is, it will be too much.

One notable omission in your analysis though - where does Johnny Wilson rank? I mean, you even included Ainias Smith who I've regularly taken with a late day 3 pick in mocks to be a return specialist / STer, but not Wilson. Guy gives me DK vibes...

If at this point i had to pick 'my guy' - it would be one of the below:

Risk but worthy reward pick = Legette
Safe pick = Polk
Sleeper / swing for fences pick = J Wilson

I am an armchair scout. I don't have access to all-22. As far as scouting goes, I have access to what's on YouTube. I primarily form my opinions from reading (and listening) a variety of other opinions. Almost nobody I read or listen to has talked about Johnny Wilson. He had the highest drop rate in the country last year, and to me, from what I've seen, he doesn't have the twitch to an NFL WR. He has great long speed, but I don't think he can beat NFL corners in press man because he isn't quick or elusive at all. So, based on that, he looks more like an inline guy to me. If that's so, at his size, he's probably better off bulking up and moving to TE.

As for Ainias Smith, I honestly thought I was crazy for how much I liked him, and then EJ from Bootleg Scouting goes on a tirade about how useful he could be in the right scheme. He's basically a running back at reciever and has some of the surest hands in the draft. I don't love him early, but if you are double dipping at receiver, and miss out on the top few tiers for your Shakir/Samuel depth, you could do a lot worse than Ainias Smith in the late 4th/ early 5th. Because he's the best returner in the draft, and because of the new kickoff rule which turns kickoffs into punts, I could see Smith going way earlier than people expect. 3rd round is his ceiling, imo.

 

[SundherDome]

I am an armchair scout. I don't have access to all-22. As far as scouting goes, I have access to what's on YouTube. I primarily form my opinions from reading (and listening) a variety of other opinions. Almost nobody I read or listen to has talked about Johnny Wilson. He had the highest drop rate in the country last year, and to me, from what I've seen, he doesn't have the twitch to an NFL WR. He has great long speed, but I don't think he can beat NFL corners in press man because he isn't quick or elusive at all. So, based on that, he looks more like an inline guy to me. If that's so, at his size, he's probably better off bulking up and moving to TE.

As for Ainias Smith, I honestly thought I was crazy for how much I liked him, and then EJ from Bootleg Scouting goes on a tirade about how useful he could be in the right scheme. He's basically a running back at reciever and has some of the surest hands in the draft. I don't love him early, but if you are double dipping at receiver, and miss out on the top few tiers for your Shakir/Samuel depth, you could do a lot worse than Ainias Smith in the late 4th/ early 5th. Because he's the best returner in the draft, and because of the new kickoff rule which turns kickoffs into punts, I could see Smith going way earlier than people expect. 3rd round is his ceiling, imo.

As a FSU fan that has watched all of Johnny Wilson's games, he is maddening. He has a ton of talent, makes catches he shouldn't but then he will just drop the easiest slant on third and short with nobody covering him. It's almost like the Gabe Davis affect. If you have a top WR coach and a late day 3 pick, you could mold him into something special but it is a long play.

 

[truthbluth]

I forgot to talk about Polk. He was the hardest reciever for me to slot into a type. I very nearly put him in the 1st group, because he does look like an outside reciever. But I'm just not a believer. I don't know, I'm probably wrong. I don't see anything special about him. Like I said, I'm probably wrong.

 

[5 Minute Major]

Huge news….

MSN

 

[Der Jaeger]

I see Marshawn Kneeland has been steadily moving up rankings as the off-season progresses. He had some of the best agility testing of any DE or edge at the combine, and fits a lot of what Beane and McDermott look for in an edge rusher.

Brugler has him at 32, highest I've seen. I wouldn't be surprised if Beane made that pick.

 

[Husko]

New poll: 2024 HF Bills Big Board 19

@Rowley Birkin won't be happy as Mitchell comes off the board at #18 with a shocking 75% of the vote. Newton the overwhelming add.

New poll: 2024 HF Bills Big Board 19

1. Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State (88%)
2. Malik Nabers, WR, LSU (83%)
3. Rome Odunze, WR, Washington (100%)
4. Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame (38%)
4. Dallas Turner, DE, Alabama (38%)
6. Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State (40%)
6. Laiatu Latu, DE, UCLA (40%)
8. Brian Thomas Junior, WR, LSU (40%)
9. Jackson Powers-Johnson, C, Oregon (40%)
9. Jared Verse, DE, Florida State (40%)
11. Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia (50%)
12. Cooper Dejean, DB, Iowa (50%)
13. Byron Murphy, DT, Texas (40%)
14. Taliese Fuaga, OL, Oregon (25%)
14. JC Latham, OT, Alabama (25%)
14. Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama (25%)
14. Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo (25%)
18. Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas (75%)

 

[Husko]

Rice is going to go higher than his draft rankings, and after reading the Beast, I'm even more sure of it. Same conclusion as I had: he's going to be a better pro than collegian.

I'm curious how you reconcile your preference for separation with your appreciation for Rice? The reason he's going to go day 2 is because he's a very poor separator. I wouldn't mind him as a day 3 flyer, but he wouldn't particularly excite me.

 

[Husko]

Great analysis. On the whole I agree with mostly everything, with a few obvious exceptions.

Most notably Polk - but we discussed him earlier. Even if you think he is Gabe Davis 2.0.... that doesn't make him a bit part WR4. It actually makes him a pretty good fit.

IMO nobody needs to be an all situations WR1. Not Shakir, not Samuel, not whoever is drafted later this month, not anybody. That isn't the way this team needs to be constructed any more. This is also why whatever the cost to trade up for Odunze is, it will be too much.

One notable omission in your analysis though - where does Johnny Wilson rank? I mean, you even included Ainias Smith who I've regularly taken with a late day 3 pick in mocks to be a return specialist / STer, but not Wilson. Guy gives me DK vibes...

If at this point i had to pick 'my guy' - it would be one of the below:

Risk but worthy reward pick = Legette
Safe pick = Polk
Sleeper / swing for fences pick = J Wilson

I actually don't love the Gabe comp for Polk. They both bring the girtty work to the table. And they're both poor separators. But other than that, not sure they're that similar. Polk doesn't have the deep speed and downfield profile Gabe has. He strikes me as more of a jack of all trades type. Brugler compares him to Josh Palmer which I like as a comp.

Brugler ranks / grades for the top WRs we've been debating lately:

 

[Husko]

Proud of myself that the two WRs I recently landed on as worth a late first (McConkey and Mitchell) are the only two Brugler gave the 1-2 grade on.

 

[truthbluth]

I'm curious how you reconcile your preference for separation with your appreciation for Rice? The reason he's going to go day 2 is because he's a very poor separator. I wouldn't mind him as a day 3 flyer, but he wouldn't particularly excite me.

Th3 one thing I like about Rice (and Tahj Washington) is both of them are experienced, and good, at scramble drills. With Diggs and Gabe gone, having somebody with instincts to "feel" the QB scrambling would be a plus.

 

[Jim Bob]

 

[SundherDome]

Huge news….

MSN

Your link appears dead

 

[5 Minute Major]

Your link appears dead

Yeah, MSN took the story down because they reported the Josh Allen extension with Jax and posted this as a photo under the headlines…

 

[SundherDome]

Yeah, MSN took the story down because they reported the Josh Allen extension with Jax and posted this as a photo under the headlines…

Ahh, that is embarrassing for them

 

[brian_griffin]

Yeah, MSN took the story down because they reported the Josh Allen extension with Jax and posted this as a photo under the headlines…

If someone intentionally spoofed that to see if they could sneak it by their "editors", that's the sports world equivalence of the Asiana air liner flight crash spoof by the (American) NTSB weekend intern.

 

[Der Jaeger]

I'm curious how you reconcile your preference for separation with your appreciation for Rice? The reason he's going to go day 2 is because he's a very poor separator. I wouldn't mind him as a day 3 flyer, but he wouldn't particularly excite me.

It’s based on where you take a player.

If you’re taking a player 1+, he better be Harrison level. His profile is that if Larry Fitzgerald, and that’s the type of impact you’re expecting.

If it’s 1 (mid first round), you expect a weakness but nothing major. BTJ has some questions around if he’s just benefitting from being at LSU with Nabers.

If the player is 1- (20-32), 1-2 weaknesses are expected but it better not be hands or separation. And something he does should be elite. McConkey is exactly this type of player.

2 (2+ to 2-), and you’re looking for players who are either complete but nothing elite or have possible one area of need.

3 (3+ to 3-), and you start seeing significant development issues but those players may have one elite trait which offsets it.

I’m not a Keon Coleman fan, for example. But if he’s there in the 3rd, you better take him.

Rice had elite hands and gets open. His suddenness is average when he’s exploding away from defenders. He’s also a long strider, so it’s not surprising.

I’m not picking Rice at 28. I’m thinking about it at 60. He won’t be there at 128.

 

[ValJamesDuex]

Trapasso 7 Round NFL Mock

Seven-round 2024 NFL Mock Draft: Four WRs picked in top 10; Cowboys, Seahawks, Broncos all take QBs on Day 2

Predicting every pick for the 2024 NFL Draft

www.cbssports.com

 

[ValJamesDuex]

It’s based on where you take a player.

If you’re taking a player 1+, he better be Harrison level. His profile is that if Larry Fitzgerald, and that’s the type of impact you’re expecting.

If it’s 1 (mid first round), you expect a weakness but nothing major. BTJ has some questions around if he’s just benefitting from being at LSU with Nabers.

If the player is 1- (20-32), 1-2 weaknesses are expected but it better not be hands or separation. And something he does should be elite. McConkey is exactly this type of player.

2 (2+ to 2-), and you’re looking for players who are either complete but nothing elite or have possible one area of need.

3 (3+ to 3-), and you start seeing significant development issues but those players may have one elite trait which offsets it.

I’m not a Keon Coleman fan, for example. But if he’s there in the 3rd, you better take him.

Rice had elite hands and gets open. His suddenness is average when he’s exploding away from defenders. He’s also a long strider, so it’s not surprising.

I’m not picking Rice at 28. I’m thinking about it at 60. He won’t be there at 128.

Do you prefer Coleman or Walker ?

I missed ?, but would appreciate your takes on McConkey, Franklin, Worthy (one trick pony ?)