Blue Jays Discussion: It's a bird, it's a plane, it's Kevin Pillar!

[zeke]

Last year's playoffs teams:

CLE 19-17
BOS 19-18
TEX 19-20
CHC 18-19
TOR 17-21
NYM 16-20
SFG 15-24

 

[TorMapleJays]

Last year's playoffs teams:

CLE 19-17
BOS 19-18
TEX 19-20
CHC 18-19
TOR 17-21
NYM 16-20
SFG 15-24

Houston looks very strong.

 

[zeke]

Why not? Its been a noted concern as to how his "muscle the ball" power would translate in-game against better pitching, which is one of the reasons why he was "shafted" on prospect lists despite his raw numbers. The whole "he's a really big guy and his stat lines from A+ and AA ball say he should hit for power" thinking doesn't exactly foretell anything. I get the impression that Tellez is more of a "big ogre who shows power when he runs into balls" than he is a naturally explosive bat-speed power hitter, and those types have absolutely been neutralized in the past as they become exposed to more advanced pitching. Its bat-speed over brute strength at the MLB level, always.

We had the whole Bellinger/Tellez discussion months ago and if you've seen Bellinger at all since his call-up you'd know real quick why stat-line scouting alone is useless. It turns out that even though they put up similar numbers at similar levels, the reason why Bellinger was a much better prospect comes down to straight visual scouting.

why not?

because his raw power is unarguable and his game power has come along very well.

30gms certainly won't make me start worrying that it's suddenly disappeared.

 

[Dr.Funk]

Our records after 38 games the last three years:

2015: 17-21
2016: 19-19
2017: 17-21

ALCS here we come!

 

[JS19]

I'm not exactly sure that "made out like bandits" is the appropriate term for the Morales signing. He's been right about average. Yes, he's had some big hits, but his production as a whole has sat right around league average.

I mean in terms of saving money for getting similar performance, instead of blowing the load on a more expensive player with some concerns around if he could still produce similar numbers to prior years.

 

[horner]

Our records after 38 games the last three years:

2015: 17-21
2016: 19-19
2017: 17-21

ALCS here we come!

I like this team . Without the star player .

They seem to play a better game running hitting sealing bases.

Before it was all about home runs .
Now is about moving the base runner.

Keep it up boys.

I still say they trade there FA's . It's about building now and for the future.

 

[deletethis]

So much of hitting is pitchers making mistakes and outright luck that its ridiculous to claim that a hitter has conscious control over when they do or don't get a hit. As mentioned above, its more or less all about how good you actually are: good hitters get more hits which means that they'll get more hits in "clutch" situations as well. Ryan Goins had a walkoff hit the other day and yet today with runners on 2nd and 3rd he struck out.

The defensive team alters its defensive alignments based on game situation and how they are going to pitch to a hitter. Good hitters can likewise adjust their approach at the plate. The idea that the hitter's success is mostly random is simplistic.

 

[Woodman19]

I like this team . Without the star player .

They seem to play a better game running hitting sealing bases.

Before it was all about home runs .
Now is about moving the base runner.

Keep it up boys.

I still say they trade there FA's . It's about building now and for the future.

Bautista, Smoak and Pillar say hello.

 

[theaub]

I am fairly confident in saying the Jays have scored a higher percentage of their runs via the homer over the past week than in the weeks preceding it.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

I like this team . Without the star player .

They seem to play a better game running hitting sealing bases.

Before it was all about home runs .
Now is about moving the base runner.

Keep it up boys.

I still say they trade there FA's . It's about building now and for the future.

I wonder if it seemed that way two weeks ago.

 

[Discoverer]

I am fairly confident in saying the Jays have scored a higher percentage of their runs via the homer over the past week than in the weeks preceding it.

I don't know about runs scored directly on HR or anything like that, but the basic numbers are kind of hilarious.

April: 22 HR, 89 R, 4.05 R/HR
May: 21 HR, 61 R, 2.95 R/HR

But yeah, the big difference is that the backups are playing small ball and bunting and stealing and stuff.

 

[one77]

Team looks good, even without Donaldson and Tulowitzki and Martin. Glad they found their groove.

Also, Pillar looks better and better every year. What a stud of a player we've developed...

 

[Discoverer]

If Pearce is out, Leblebijian gets added to the 40-man and called up instead of Ceciliani... right? RIGHT?

 

[Morgs]

If Pearce is out, Leblebijian gets added to the 40-man and called up instead of Ceciliani... right? RIGHT?

One can only dream..

 

[Discoverer]

For the record, there IS an open spot on the 40-man, but it would just be typical Blue Jays to use that spot to add another mediocre reliever and call up the OF with the -15 wRC+ in Buffalo rather than just adding the versatile player with the 190 wRC+ (or... hell, even Dwight Smith Jr. would be worth adding at this point).

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

If Pearce is out, Leblebijian gets added to the 40-man and called up instead of Ceciliani... right? RIGHT?

We have to be careful that we're not 'stat-line scouting'. Clearly, since he's never been mentioned on any top prospect list (evar) he's producing his numbers through some kind of witchcraft or black magic.

But seriously though, it would be nice to give him the call. Especially with the left side of your infield still out, Coghlan being able to play (also far better suited) as an outfielder. Leblebijian is also an above average defender, which has been one of the things that has made this team successful in May.

 

[phillipmike]

For the record, there IS an open spot on the 40-man, but it would just be typical Blue Jays to use that spot to add another mediocre reliever and call up the OF with the -15 wRC+ in Buffalo rather than just adding the versatile player with the 190 wRC+ (or... hell, even Dwight Smith Jr. would be worth adding at this point).

DSj gets my nod. Though Sanchez did experience some more blood on his finger yesterday so i could see them thinking pitcher again... Tulo might be expected back soon too.

 

[Discoverer]

We have to be careful that we're not 'stat-line scouting'. Clearly, since he's never been mentioned on any top prospect list (evar) he's producing his numbers through some kind of witchcraft or black magic.

But seriously though, it would be nice to give him the call. Especially with the left side of your infield still out, Coghlan being able to play (also far better suited) as an outfielder. Leblebijian is also an above average defender, which has been one of the things that has made this team successful in May.

Exactly. Leblebijian has a solid minor league track record, is having an outstanding season, plays multiple positions, is old enough that we shouldn't worry about him being "rushed" based on a small sample... I really want to see him get a chance.

 

[Woodman19]

For the record, there IS an open spot on the 40-man, but it would just be typical Blue Jays to use that spot to add another mediocre reliever and call up the OF with the -15 wRC+ in Buffalo rather than just adding the versatile player with the 190 wRC+ (or... hell, even Dwight Smith Jr. would be worth adding at this point).

I want Smith. He seems to have a real hit tool.

 

[Discoverer]

I want Smith. He seems to have a real hit tool.

I think he can be a solid fourth/platoon OF, but he really hasn't done much the last couple years, especially compared to Leblebijian.

 

[zeke]

Smith is actually scuffling real bad right now, with a 45wrc+ over his last 15gms.

 

[hoc123]

Smith is actually scuffling real bad right now, with a 45wrc+ over his last 15gms.

Really? I got 102wrc+ over his last 15 games http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=sa597794&position=OF&type=-2&gds=2017-04-23&gde=2017-05-14&season=

Edit: I think you meant last 15 days, because from April 29'th he has a 45wrc+.

 

[Woodman19]

I think he can be a solid fourth/platoon OF, but he really hasn't done much the last couple years, especially compared to Leblebijian.

Going into the NL we need the positional flexibility, and as you mentioned Zeke he has cooled off (although I don't know if it's luck or bad PA).

 

[zeke]

Really? I got 102wrc+ over his last 15 games http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=sa597794&position=OF&type=-2&gds=2017-04-23&gde=2017-05-14&season=

Edit: I think you meant last 15 days, because from April 29'th he has a 45wrc+.

you're right. must've miscounted by 1. that was last 14gms.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Much of what Smith has done in Buffalo thus far has been BABIP driven, running above the .295-.300 he's accustomed to. I'd leave him down to continue refining, as I imagine they will. I think he's close to being ready, however. Once the ISO is up around .150 and walk rate at ~10%, then I'd feel comfortable. Prob a September call up this year.