Speculation: Is winning games and being first in the Atlantic an indication that we're a bad team?

[leafs in five]

what I see is they play like they did in games 4-7 of the Boston series, flipping the puck out to centre all the time, icings, lots of chip and chase, dmen blocking lots of shots, really good goaltending (true even of samsonov in game 7). 2 recent goals against have been like a result of too many Leafs hauling ass to over-backcheck. I am not surprised that some offensive numbers are kind of lagging, or that our top scorer can't compete with Colorado's etc. I really like the possibility of Minten contributing in the playoffs, and Domi can obviously bring it then too we've seen it. I don't want to trade for Kadri at all

 

[Fogelhund]

In my opinion, this is a good team, but not yet good enough. We've won plenty of regular season games over the years, so the expectation is for more. We expect that a team with higher aspirations should have a more consistent effort. I appreciate that it's a long season, but we continue to show some signs that are reminders of why we've failed in the past. A lack of effort when it counts, challenges with secondary scoring. We see that this team can be a dominant team at times, but it's just not consistent. A little more consistency with that level of play would probably satisfy many, at least for the regular season... and probably be a predictor of a higher degree of playoff success..

 

[conFABulator]

It’ll likely boil down to how effective Domi, McMann and Pacioretty are in the playoffs, and whether they can carry the team through a round or two if the goaltending can do their part and steal a couple of games.

I assume you list those three because they represent depth scoring beyond our core four. I agree, bit would add Knies to the top of that list...and then Robertson to the hopeful list, unless he is scratched in place of a TDL pick-up

 

[rojac]

I for one have no complaints about their current position in the standings....except perhaps that we are currently trending towards playing Boston or Tampa again. Such is (Bettman) life.

However, their play is December has been...concerning. Confidence in their ability to maintain this point pace is not high should they continue to play like this.

I do acknowledge that I am hard on the team (in my defense, the last near-decade of playoff performances has conditioned me).

That said, I don't think the "take the two points and run" mentality is supposed to apply to every win

There are currently 7 teams (including TB and BOS) within 3 points of the WC1 spot so it seems a bit premature to be claiming beliefs are trending towards playing anybody in the playoffs.

 

[Maple Leaf]

There are currently 7 teams (including TB and BOS) within 3 points of the WC1 spot so it seems a bit premature to be claiming beliefs are trending towards playing anybody in the playoffs.

I prefer the 1 vs 8 style playoff format old school legit not bottman crap he is doing now

 

[rojac]

I prefer the 1 vs 8 style playoff format old school legit not bottman crap he is doing now

So, just to clarify, do you want the version of 1 vs. 8 that the league used to use where Division leaders get the top seeds or do you want a pure 1-8 ranking of teams?

Using the first system, the Leafs would currently be the #2 seed and would play the #8 seed which is Boston.

Using the second system, the Leafs would currently the #4 seed and would play the #5 seed which is Florida.

This is based on the point percentage standings as of the morning of Dec. 17, 2024.,

Incidentally, if you just use points, the first system still put the Leafs in the #2 seed where they would play the #7 seed, Tampa Bay. While the second system would put the Leafs in the #3 seed where they play #6, Boston.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Winning isn't bad. Being 1st in the Atlantic isn't bad. But we also should acknowledge that we're 1st in the Atlantic because the Atlantic division fell off, we're winning less than 3 of the past 4 years, and we're experiencing a concerning decline in our underlying play outside of goaltending.

 

[Nineteen67]

I assume you list those three because they represent depth scoring beyond our core four. I agree, bit would add Knies to the top of that list...and then Robertson to the hopeful list, unless he is scratched in place of a TDL pick-up

I don’t expect much from the higher paid players and hope they don’t get in the way.

 

[Dekes For Days]

The mythological 60 min game is what it seems people keep hoping for.
All games have ebbs and flows and momentum swings. Especially when you have 2 good teams playing. Even now contrary to most views, the league has achieved parity pretty much and every game you have to work.
For anyone thinking any team is going out and dominating for 60 mis night in, night out is kind of silly.
For the life of me I can't figure out why this market equates losing with players not caring, or being disinterested. With the rare expeption, winning 60% of all your games is a great season. Then prepare to try and win 16 games in the post season.
You are correct. They are trying to play a brand that has a higher chance of winning in the playoffs, taking care of your defensive responsibilities first will lead to the Leafs having fewer chances to score. Berube doesn't want to win 5-4 every night.

You're right about everything except the idea that this style of play has a higher chance of winning in the playoffs.

 

[Leafidelity]

You're right about everything except the idea that this style of play has a higher chance of winning in the playoffs.

This is the playoff style of play Keefe has suddenly dropped on the team by like game 2-3 for the past years. I feel a lot better seeing them apply it during the season than suddenly pretending to be something they're not.

 

[Dekes For Days]

This is the playoff style of play Keefe has suddenly dropped on the team by like game 2-3 for the past years. I feel a lot better seeing them apply it during the season than suddenly pretending to be something they're not

A lot of people seem to have no idea what systems we've run. Pretending to be something we're not and don't need to be is what we're currently doing.

 

[Commander Clueless]

There are currently 7 teams (including TB and BOS) within 3 points of the WC1 spot so it seems a bit premature to be claiming beliefs are trending towards playing anybody in the playoffs.

Search your feelings. You know it to be true.

 

[Leafidelity]

A lot of people seem to have no idea what systems we've run. Pretending to be something we're not and don't need to be is what we're currently doing.

They're doing a pretty good job pretending. They should inform the rest of the Atlantic Division, and the 26 teams with less points that it's all a charade

 

[Evilhomer]

Winning isn't bad. Being 1st in the Atlantic isn't bad. But we also should acknowledge that we're 1st in the Atlantic because the Atlantic division fell off, we're winning less than 3 of the past 4 years, and we're experiencing a concerning decline in our underlying play outside of goaltending.

They are certainly benefiting from the division not being what it was the past few years. Ironically, they may end up meeting the same teams they always do in the first round anyway as it's likely that one or maybe even both of Boston and Tampa (if Ottawa really does finally emerge this season) will be in a wild card spot.

 

[Gary Nylund]

All summer: The only thing that matters is the playoffs. Regular season means nothing

Lose a game in December: sky is definitely falling

The sky's definitely not falling. The teams' been OK, just OK. 1st in a weak division and an unimpressive goal differential of +9 but whatever. It's 82 games of practice before the real season so as long as they bring it in April I'll be happy.

We've had 8 consecutive seasons of sub .500 hockey in the playoffs which is probably an all-time NHL record. My biggest concern is despite a new coach, a new and improved system and much better goaltending, it's the same old core that seems to lack leadership and character. As long as it's the same 4 forwards taking up half the cap, how realistic is it that things will suddenly be different this year? We'll see what happens in the playoffs but my best guess at this point is that we will win a round, not impossible that we will even win another round and that will largely be due to goalies stealing a game or two along the way. Hard to see anything more than that but we can hope.

 

[Sypher04]

The Atlantic isn’t really weak when compared against other divisions. The Metro especially looks very similar to the Atlantic. The West have a few more competitive teams but their bottom feeders are a tier of their own

We'll see what happens in the playoffs but my best guess at this point is that we will win a round, not impossible that we will even win another round and that will largely be due to goalies stealing a game or two along the way. Hard to see anything more than that but we can hope.

This is kind of nonsensical imo.
it’s a rarity for a team to luck their way into the final 4. If the leafs goaltenders have to steal a game or two to help their team along that’s not a bad thing and not uncommon around the league. If you’re able to crack the final 4, there isn’t really any reason to think it couldn’t be your year.

 

[Dekes For Days]

They're doing a pretty good job pretending. They should inform the rest of the Atlantic Division, and the 26 teams with less points that it's all a charade

Our underlying play this year hasn't actually been that great. And while we have the pieces to be a good team regardless, 8th place and on pace to finish worse than 3 of the last 4 years despite the 3rd best goaltending in the league isn't exactly a ringing endorsement of the system.

 

[Gary Nylund]

This is kind of nonsensical imo.
it’s a rarity for a team to luck their way into the final 4. If the leafs goaltenders have to steal a game or two to help their team along that’s not a bad thing and not uncommon around the league. If you’re able to crack the final 4, there isn’t really any reason to think it couldn’t be your year.

This post of yours is what's nonsensical.

If the goalies steal a game or two of course it's a good thing, I never said it wasn't, in fact I'm looking forward to it. I also never used the word luck so I have no idea what you're going on about.

As far as this "being our year", sure anything's possible. All I said was that for me it's hard to see winning more than 2 rounds and if you have problem with me having an opinion, well geez I don't know what to tell you. Call the cops maybe?

 

[Sypher04]

This post of yours is what's nonsensical.

If the goalies steal a game or two of course it's a good thing, I never said it wasn't, in fact I'm looking forward to it. I also never used the word luck so I have no idea what you're going on about.

As far as this "being our year", sure anything's possible. All I said was that for me it's hard to see winning more than 2 rounds and if you have problem with me having an opinion, well geez I don't know what to tell you. Call the cops maybe?

Where did I say I had a problem with it? A little sensitive today, are we?

I just dont think when people make claims like I could see them winning 2 but no further, I have to wonder what they are even basing that on. It’s not at all uncommon for the first two rounds to be equally or moreso difficult than the 3rd round. It really all comes down to opponent.

 

[Dekes For Days]

The Atlantic isn’t really weak when compared against other divisions.

It's more that the top end of the Atlantic has dropped off from the insanity it was. Our current record would put us 2nd in 2023, 3rd in 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2024, and 4th in 2022.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Where did I say I had a problem with it? A little sensitive today, are we?

You said my post was nonsensical, that suggests you have a problem.

I just dont think when people make claims like I could see them winning 2 but no further, I have to wonder what they are even basing that on. It’s not at all uncommon for the first two rounds to be equally or moreso difficult than the 3rd round. It really all comes down to opponent.

I'm not claiming anything, I was stating an opinion. Millions of fans, millions of opinions. If your opinion is different from mine that's fine, seems like you're the one who's a little sensitive.

8 consecutive seasons of sub .500 hockey in the playoffs. A 1-8 record in playoff series during that time span. We're still spending half the cap on the same 4 forwards, 3 out of those 4 see huge dips in production in the playoffs. Winning 2 rounds would be more than they've won in the last 8 years combined, not sure why you take issue with me saying I have a hard time seeing them winning more than that.

 

[PROUD PAPA]

I don’t have a problem with people criticizing their play when it’s deserving or a problem with the praise when it is warranted. In fact I prefer the honest takes.
Large fan base with only a small percentage of relentless doom and gloomers and an equal amount of everything is constantly beautiful seems about right to me.

 

[Sypher04]

You said my post was nonsensical, that suggests you have a problem.

No it doesn’t. It suggests I think the premise is nonsense and nothing more than that. I have zero issues with you stating an opinion, which is exactly what I’m doing as well.

I'm not claiming anything, I was stating an opinion. Millions of fans, millions of opinions. If your opinion is different from mine that's fine, seems like you're the one who's a little sensitive.

8 consecutive seasons of sub .500 hockey in the playoffs. A 1-8 record in playoff series during that time span. We're still spending half the cap on the same 4 forwards, 3 out of those 4 see huge dips in production in the playoffs. Winning 2 rounds would be more than they've won in the last 8 years combined, not sure why you take issue with me saying I have a hard time seeing them winning more than that.

There hasn’t been a single twinge of emotion in any of my posts here, so you are way off the mark with that.

As for taking issue with me calling it a claim vs opinion feels like some pretty high tier nit pickery but sure I concede I didn’t use the right word there.

At no point have I had any issue with you expressing an opinion as you’ve incorrectly surmised - I was merely offering my opinion that it’s nonsense.

As for the why, I feel like I already covered that. My disagreement with your opinion is rooted less in the Leafs and more in the concept that the 3rd round is harder to win than the 2nd. I’m not sure a strong argument can be made to support that tbh.

No shade whatsoever to you personally. I was a little surprised you replied to my critique of your opinion the way you initially did. My second post on this was tongue in cheek with the sensitive comment

 

[Gary Nylund]

No it doesn’t. It suggests I think the premise is nonsense and nothing more than that. I have zero issues with you stating an opinion, which is exactly what I’m doing as well.

What premise?

There hasn’t been a single twinge of emotion in any of my posts here, so you are way off the mark with that.

As for taking issue with me calling it a claim vs opinion feels like some pretty high tier nit pickery but sure I concede I didn’t use the right word there.

At no point have I had any issue with you expressing an opinion as you’ve incorrectly surmised - I was merely offering my opinion that it’s nonsense.

And I'm explaining why it's not.

As for the why, I feel like I already covered that. My disagreement with your opinion is rooted less in the Leafs and more in the concept that the 3rd round is harder to win than the 2nd. I’m not sure a strong argument can be made for that tbh.

As a general rule, the opponents get tougher every round, isn't that obvious?

No shade whatsoever to you personally. I was a little surprised you replied to my critique of your opinion the way you initially did. My second post on this was tongue in cheek with the sensitive comment

You called my opinion nonsense, I'm explaining why it isn't. Why is that surprising to you?

Again, this team is mostly the same team that has won 1 playoff round in the last years, thinking that they're likely to win 3 or more this season, I could maybe see why that could be considered nonsensical but saying that's not likely to happen is pretty much stating the obvious. First you say my opinion is "nonsensical", then when I explain why it isn't you say I'm "sensitive", this is a little bit weird.

 

[sunstersun]

The weird thing is we've always said if we improved the defence and goaltending we'd be really good.

Now that we have, the goals scored is 20th in the league? Why has the PP continued to be average at best?