Is USA hockey's window smaller than we think ?

[Bear of Bad News]

That the U.S.'s BEST team in 30 years will be kinda old by 2030, while Canada's NEXT generation (still kids) looks OFF THE CHARTS.

Can't we just make taller charts?

 

[KillerMillerTime]

In the term of high end talent, the USA I don’t think will catch up at all in the next 10 years. There isn’t the next great American prospect like Eichel or Matthew’s. Plenty of very good prospects but nothing special.

Canada has DuPont, McKenna and Bedard who seem to be on that next level. Those are special prospects.

Both teams will have top end talent in the future like Hagens, Buium, Leonard, Hutson Vs Misa, Schaefer, Fantili, Parehk who should round out the rosters. But the states are missing the replacements for Matthew’s, Eichel and Hughes.

So I think this trend of two rosters who are very evenly matched with stars top to bottom will continue but Canada keeping the X factor of McDavid, Makar, Mack

Mathews and Eichel have at least thru 2030 so not to worried. There are 12 year old kids who could develop into stars 10 years from how, who knows.

 

[ORRFForever]

Can't we just make taller charts?

We can, indeed.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Once again, I’m not the one who brought up the ridiculous argument of population in cold weather as if it were some trump card.

Your inability to understand it is fascinating.

 

[WPGDEVILS]

Mathews and Eichel have at least thru 2030 so not to worried. There are 12 year old kids who could develop into stars 10 years from how, who knows.

Of course there’s some 12 year old who could become the next star. But what we do know is that Canada has another Bedard level talent and what might be the best defensive prospect of all time. Obviously it’s an early to say that but he is on track to be a generational defence prospect.

I will also add in this day with social media both of these players were being talked about when they were 12

 

[Czechboy]

That the U.S.'s BEST team in 30 years will be kinda old by 2030, while Canada's NEXT generation (still kids) looks OFF THE CHARTS.

Many of us believe Canada is about to take a step (or 2) ahead of everyone else.

But I keep hearing this.. 1996 the US arrived. 2016 they were built to beat Canada. I generally find all their rosters are amazing including some of the ones they've sent to the Skoda's. The drafts and Jr results in the 2000's have been amazing for them. They've all been great teams.

Maybe I'm misinterpretting Window... eg. My Oilers had a nasty window coming up. Then the cap expandaded in amazing timing to McD and Bouch extensions.lol SO that Window got bigger by about 2 years. That's because of cap and age.

Internationally speaking the only window in jeopardy is the Finn's as they just cannot get a best on best tournament at their peak and when one finally happens, they get killed with injuries. With the US... I don't see a window. I just see a top nation in no real fear of declining. Eg. I think the Swiss window closes whenever Josi retires as their drafts have not been good. The German window closed when no one else made an impact after the Big 4. Slovak window closed about a decade ago and it remains to been if it opens. Czech window closed in 2010 or so and it remains to be seen if that window opens. Maybe I'm thinking too much about windows.lol

 

[ORRFForever]

But I keep hearing this.. 1996 the US arrived. 2016 they were built to beat Canada. I generally find all their rosters are amazing including some of the ones they've sent to the Skoda's. The drafts and Jr results in the 2000's have been amazing for them. They've all been great teams.

Maybe I'm misinterpretting Window... eg. My Oilers had a nasty window coming up. Then the cap expandaded in amazing timing to McD and Bouch extensions.lol SO that Window got bigger by about 2 years. That's because of cap and age.

Internationally speaking the only window in jeopardy is the Finn's as they just cannot get a best on best tournament at their peak and when one finally happens, they get killed with injuries. With the US... I don't see a window. I just see a top nation in no real fear of declining. Eg. I think the Swiss window closes whenever Josi retires as their drafts have not been good. The German window closed when no one else made an impact after the Big 4. Slovak window closed about a decade ago and it remains to been if it opens. Czech window closed in 2010 or so and it remains to be seen if that window opens. Maybe I'm thinking too much about windows.lol

The U.S. drafts have been in a bit of a lull since 2020. Canadian drafts have been off the charts. (* It's the opposite of 2015-2019 *)

Will it last forever? No.

But Canada's about to produce some teams (2030 to 2040) that are some of the best we have ever produced.

 

[Czechboy]

This is what came up for me on google images when I searched American window

View attachment 980857

That is a pretty good vertical to be honest.

 

[Czechboy]

The U.S.'s drafts have been in a lull since 2020. Canadian drafts have been off the charts.

Will it last forever? No.

But Canada's about to produce some teams (2030 to 2040) that are some of the best we have ever produced.

I don't consider Canada to be in a window either.lol

 

[koyvoo]

That is a pretty good vertical to be honest.

Of course. Naturally superior athletes.

 

[KillerMillerTime]

Once again, I’m not the one who brought up the ridiculous argument of population in cold weather as if it were some trump card.

I don't disagree but we in the US like football, baseball and basketball better than hockey. No doubt in my mind those 3 states if they had the identical circumstances
to Canada would interrupt any continuous Canadian hockey dominance.

Of course there’s some 12 year old who could become the next star. But what we do know is that Canada has another Bedard level talent and what might be the best defensive prospect of all time. Obviously it’s an early to say that but he is on track to be a generational defence prospect.

I will also add in this day with social media both of these players were being talked about when they were 12

You talking LL World Series age, come on. Talk to me when they are Sophomores in HS. There is something really strange talking about 12 year olds as commodities.

 

[ORRFForever]

I don't consider Canada to be in a window either.lol

We never are. (wink)

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

In response to the bold part:

https://macleans.ca/society/the-good-ol-soccer-game/

The rise of NA soccer is a non-issue, because it's taking up as much space in US sports as it does in Canada if not more.

People keep stating "10x pOPuLaTIon", but don't seem to 1-include the higher rate of inequality, meaning there's more access per capita in Canada 2-include the fact a huge chunk of the US population are black or spanish, which aren't your typical hockey-going folks 3-have other sports that take up much more space than in Canada (football, basketball, baseball and others).

 

[KillerMillerTime]

We never are. (wink)

Why should you? its your national sport. Canada has probably 10 million more people than Texas. You think you can beat just Texas in football or baseball? If not why not?

 

[koyvoo]

I don't disagree but we in the US like football, baseball and basketball better than hockey. No doubt in my mind those 3 states if they had the identical circumstances
to Canada would interrupt any continuous Canadian hockey dominance.

Here’s the thing, and I’ll be serious for this post. I have a clear recollection of the USA winning the 1996 World Cup, and at that time I was beyond convinced that they would take over. Numbers, money etc, no way Canada could ever keep up in the future. We had arguments about it in my friends/family circles. That was almost 30 years ago.

The truth is that to come up with a team of 20 players, much of that stuff is irrelevant. It’s why countries like Holland, Portugal and Croatia can compete with Brazil, Germany or Spain etc in soccer.
Both countries have good developmental hockey programs at the moment. There was a suggestion that if Houston had Toronto’s climate, this conversation would be very different. That was a silly, if not more, than my past string of 4-5 posts.

 

[nucks88]

What US Window? What are we talking about here?

 

[ismelofhockey]

Cole Sillinger and Kent Johnson (both in 2021) are Canadian.

Add Connor McMichael to Canada's 2019, please.

Thanks for the corrections. And yes, my point wasn't to show what the teams would look like at next year's 4 Nations. It was to show that team USA's window wasn't closing. They still have good players coming up, just like Canada. I think our crop is slightly better right now, but it won't make a difference on the final teams.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Is this thread a joke?

Canada thinks because they won game two of a two game series after losing game one and getting outscored and outshot over the two games that the USA is on the decline? Have some humility.

Canada had 3 players older than 33 on their roster, and USA had none.

Here were the 7 USA players over 30 (theoretically their age would make them not in play for 2030 Olympics):

Chris Kreider (13th forward)
Brock Nelson (12th forward)
JT Miller (3C)
Connor Hellebuyck (Goaltender 1)
Vincent Trocheck (11th forward)
Jaccob Slavin (LHD2)
Jake Guentzel (Forward 5 or 6)

Truthfully, 3 of those 7 likely don't even make it back next year when form shifts around, and are total non-loss replaceable players. Guentzel had a good tournament, but I'm sorry there's no way you're convincing me he's some irreplaceable player when players like Thompson, Keller, Caufield were left at home. We have plenty of middle 6 winger options. Miller is good, but another totally replaceable guy when someone like Thompson was left off. Slavin is a good player for sure, but keep in mind Quinn Hughes missed this tournament (arguably the best defenseman in the league right now), Sanderson was the 7D (a top 20 defenseman in the league), and players like Luke Hughes and Lane Hutson aren't even likely to get into the team by the Olympics next year. USA certainly isn't lacking for LH defensemen. And as good as Hellebuyck is, he hasn't exactly delivered in big spots for the USA (or the Jets). USAH does not struggle for goaltenders. I don't want to say we're the best with goaltenders (Russia), but I don't think we're lacking with Swayman, Oettinger, Wolf, Knight, Augustine all coming through the pipeline.

The two best forwards, Eichel and Matthews, will be 33 and 32 at the 2030 Olympics. Someone like Jack Hughes will be 28. The Tkachuk brothers will be 32 and 30. Quinn Hughes will be 30. McAvoy will be 32. Fox will be 31/32. Werenski will be 33. All those players should theoretically still be towards the end of their prime. Elite NHL'ers don't really drop off at 30, 31, 32, 33. I mean, yeah, that's probably the last big tournament for those players at a high level (except potentially Jack Hughes), but you could say the same for MacKinnon, McDavid, Makar, Marner, so I don't see how that's some novel concept that players age out and are replaced by younger players.

If you're questioning if USA has future NHL stars coming after them, I don't see why not. I know Canada likes to think they rule hockey because they control the institutions and get the most 1OA's and first round picks, but that doesn't equal the best NHL players. Lane Hutson was drafted 62OA, and looks like the best player from the 2022 draft. That's the type of player that looks like one of the future star defensemen of the league.

If you want to measure if the USA has future stars of the league, look at it like this. Here are Calder Finishes the last 5 years:

2023-24 (#2 and #3 American)
2022-23 ( #1)
2021-22 (#2)
2020-21 (#2 and #3)
2019-20 (#2)

And the reality is that with Hutson and Wolf the USA is guaranteed at least one top 3 finish this year. Maybe the victory.

If you want to look at other measures like percentage of NHL'ers, Canada is the country that is seeing their share decline over time. Within 10 years, there's every chance USA will equal Canada for share of NHL'ers. USA has won the last two World Junior Championships. That was for the first time ever that they repeated. Their two best NTDP age groups (2001 birth year and 2004 birth year) are 23/24 and 19/20 years of age right now.

I don't possibly know how people could suggest USA had a small window of success and it won't continue. If anything, Canada is the country on the decline in hockey prowess and the USA is the ascending country.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

Americans need to worry more about baseball and basketball. The best basketball player in the world is European, the best baseball player in the world is japanese.

 

[WPGDEVILS]

I don't disagree but we in the US like football, baseball and basketball better than hockey. No doubt in my mind those 3 states if they had the identical circumstances
to Canada would interrupt any continuous Canadian hockey dominance.

You talking LL World Series age, come on. Talk to me when they are Sophomores in HS. There is something really strange talking about 12 year olds as commodities.

The whole we like basketball, football, and baseball more is really dependent on demographics and doesn’t really dictate how good your prospects are going to be. The best basketball players and best prospects aren’t American any more. Best baseball player is from Japan. The US lost the World Series of baseball in their own national sport.
The kid with special arm talent will always pick baseball because that doesn’t translate to hockey.
The 7 footer with 8 foot wingspan was never gonna play hockey.
The people who play hockey are kids who’s parent have the money and free time for the commitment. If they play multiple sports they will pick which ever one they are better at

I don’t disagree that it is strange to talk about 12 year olds and how they project in 10 years. However that was the case with Crosby, McDavid, Bedard, and DuPont.

 

[koyvoo]

Why should you? its your national sport. Canada has probably 10 million more people than Texas. You think you can beat just Texas in football or baseball? If not why not?

Because Canada is not Japan or The Dominican Republic

 

[NewHampshire]

These boards are hysterical. Canada loses a seven-game WJC Tournament and Hockey Canada is doomed. Now, the US loses (in OT) a four-game Four Nations Tournament and their window is suddenly closed?

Pretty small sample sizes for drawing any conclusions, but the fallout is always amusing…

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Here’s the thing, and I’ll be serious for this post. I have a clear recollection of the USA winning the 1996 World Cup, and at that time I was beyond convinced that they would take over. Numbers, money etc, no way Canada could ever keep up in the future. We had arguments about it in my friends/family circles. That was almost 30 years ago.

The truth is that to come up with a team of 20 players, much of that stuff is irrelevant. It’s why countries like Holland, Portugal and Croatia can compete with Brazil, Germany or Spain etc in soccer.
Both countries have good developmental hockey programs at the moment. There was a suggestion that if Houston had Toronto’s climate, this conversation would be very different. That was a silly, if not more, than my past sting of 4-5 posts.

Once again, if the entire US had skate-able winters, more people would play, which would increase the likelihood that more players (and top-end players) would be produced, which would obviously have an effect up the ladder.

 

[WPGDEVILS]

Americans need to worry more about baseball and basketball. The best basketball player in the world is European, the best baseball player in the world is japanese.

The whole US cares more about our 3 national sports and we dominate them all is untrue. The men’s Olympic team barely beat France and was carried by geriatrics (who happen to just be some of the best players of all time and have inhumane longevity) LeBron Curry and KD were the 3 best players and they are all old. A testament to how good they are but there ain’t no Wemby down the line

 

[GirardSpinorama]

The huge wealth gap in the states will really hinder their top talents (or potentially top talents from rising to the top). The poor neighborhood kid can't compete against the rich well trained kids anymore, and theres no middle class at all. As Japan focus more on sports and not just academics, you'll see them dominate baseball.