Is USA hockey's window smaller than we think ?

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

Disagree and other teams not taking the next step doesn't have anything to do with the soon to be 400 million person USA where Hockey just made a massive breakthrough.

This was the first year where Canada's roster wasn't even clearly better, that's going to be hard to remedy going forward considering that Canada is way smaller and Hockey is only going to grow in the states while Canada is already extremely expensive.

And ramping inequality in the US which will only get worst. The difference in numbers is overstated. Next few Olympics will add some major talent on Canada's side. Celebrini, Bedard, McKenna, Schaefer, Dupont...

 

[End on a Hinote]

This is just flat wrong. That core of players from those years performed poorly in the 06 Olympics.

Meh, 2006 was more of a boys club, though.

Although, and call me biased, so was this 2025 4 Nations Canadian team. I'd say the USA had more prime players but we still manages to pull it off.

 

[ORRFForever]

Canada definitely has some serious high-end talent coming through the pipeline.

But the Americans will continue to be good in the coming decade too. Lots of young talent and there are good prospects coming through.

I see some evenly contested blockbuster games coming up between these teams in 2026, 2028, and 2030.

2026 and 2028 yes!

2030 will be interesting when we see America's Older Greatest Generation vs Canada's YOUNG(!) Next Generation.

 

[ORRFForever]

The window is open for a long time.

There’s talent in the pipeline that hasn’t even made the roster yet. (Leonard, Smith, Hagens, Cooley, Keller)

Canada isn’t going anywhere, but the US is here to stay as far as being a contender at every tournament.

I do think the trend of Canada having more high end talent will continue. (Celebrini/Bedard/McKenna)

But I think the US has more depth on D and at goalie. And more than enough forward talent.

The high end talent coming for Canada is off the charts - especially up front but also on D. What's coming for Canada is DEEP and scary.

As for as goaltending, we only need ONE and that will come.

 

[ismelofhockey]

2018 Draft:
USA: B.Tkachuk, J.Hughes, Farabee, Miller
CAN: Bouchard, Dobson, Hayton, Durzi

2019 Draft:
USA: J.Hughes, Boldy, Caufield, Zegras, Maccelli, Pinto, York, Vlasic, Wolf
CAN: Cozens, Byram, Harley, Dach, McMichael

2020 Draft:
USA: Faber, Sanderson, Laferriere
CAN: Lafrenière, Byfield, Jarvis, Guhle, Rossi, Holloway, Quinn, Perfetti, Drysdale, Mercer, Cuylle, Schneider, Lapierre, Greig

2021 Draft:
USA: Beniers, L.Hughes, Knies
CAN: Power, Johnston, McTavish, Guenther, Stankoven, Clarke, Sillinger, Johnson

2022 Draft:
USA: Hutson, Cooley, Gauthier, Nazar
CAN: Wright, Korchinski, Mateychuk, Poitras, Geekie

2023 Draft:
USA: Smith, Leonard, Augustine
CAN: Bedard, Fantilli, Benson, Danielson, Ritchie

2024 Draft:
USA: Buium
CAN: Celebrini, Sennecke, Lindstrom, Iginla, Yakemchuk, Catton, Parekh, Dickinson, Luchanko

TEAM USA 25 or under

B.Tkachuk - J.Hughes - Caufield
Boldy - Smith - Zegras
Knies - Beniers - Leonard
Gauthier - Cooley - Laferriere

Sanderson - Faber
Hutson - Vlasic
L.Hughes - York

Wolf
Augustine
Fowler

TEAM CANADA 25 or under
Lafrenière - Bedard - Byfield
Guenther - Celebrini - Johnston
McTavish - Jarvis - Stankoven
McMichael - Cozens - Mercer

Dobson - Bouchard
Harley - Clarke
Power - Guhle

????
???
???

More options for Canada, but the two teams look fairly evenly matched. Except in goal.

 

[Boonk]

USA Hockey is not the whipping boy on the international level your dad and grandparents grew up with anymore. Even 10 years ago. America is going to keep outputting star players into the league by virtue of having 10x our population and money.

 

[ORRFForever]

The window is wide open with more young players waiting to come through.

That's not the point.

There is an ebb and flow to talent. As someone in Sports Illustrated once said (paraphrasing), "When it comes to hockey, Canada pulls ahead and the rest of the world catches up. Then Canada pulls ahead again". We are entering a pull ahead stage.

Just like when the U.S. won in the mid 90's, they U.S. did not make an impact again until 2010. Then after 2010, we did not see the U.S. again until 2025.

I know it pains NON Canadian posters to give Canada credit but there is no denying our prospects since 2020 are insane.

2018 Draft:
USA: B.Tkachuk, J.Hughes, Farabee, Miller
CAN: Bouchard, Dobson, Hayton, Durzi

2019 Draft:
USA: J.Hughes, Boldy, Caufield, Zegras, Maccelli, Pinto, York, Vlasic, Wolf
CAN: Cozens, Byram, Harley, Dach

2020 Draft:
USA: Faber, Sanderson, Laferriere
CAN: Lafrenière, Byfield, Jarvis, Guhle, Rossi, Holloway, Quinn, Perfetti, Drysdale, Mercer, Cuylle, Schneider, Lapierre, Greig

2021 Draft:
USA: Beniers, L.Hughes, Sillinger, Knies, Johnson
CAN: Power, Johnston, McTavish, Guenther, Stankoven, Clarke

2022 Draft:
USA: Hutson, Cooley, Gauthier, Nazar
CAN: Wright, Korchinski, Mateychuk, Poitras, Geekie

2023 Draft:
USA: Smith, Leonard, Augustine
CAN: Bedard, Fantilli, Benson, Danielson, Ritchie

2024 Draft:
USA: Buium
CAN: Celebrini, Sennecke, Lindstrom, Iginla, Yakemchuk, Catton, Parekh, Dickinson, Luchanko

TEAM USA

B.Tkachuk - J.Hughes - Caufield
Boldy - Smith - Zegras
Knies - Beniers - Leonard
Gauthier - Cooley - Laferriere

Sanderson - Faber
Hutson - Vlasic
L.Hughes - York

Wolf
Augustine
Fowler

TEAM CANADA
Lafrenière - Bedard - Byfield
Guenther - Celebrini - Johnston
McTavish - Jarvis - Stankoven
Lindstrom - Cozens - Mercer

Dobson - Bouchard
Harley - Clarke
Power - Guhle

????
???
???

More options for Canada, but the two teams look fairly evenly matched. Except in goal.

Cole Sillinger and Kent Johnson (both in 2021) are Canadian.

Add Connor McMichael to Canada's 2019, please.

 

[WarriorofTime]

GREAT Post.

People have been piling the dirt on USA hockey since ‘98 but they’ll hang around in all likelihood.

That's not the point.


Then after 2010, we did not see the U.S. again until 2025.

There hasn’t been much best on best to base it on? Give em enough cracks they’ll likely win one of them. Don’t think they’d ever surpass Canada but the gap is less than it used to be and it doesn’t feel like they need a miracle fluke to win anymore.

But yeah if they go a decade between things again then I suppose that’ll continue the narrative that USA is and will always be terrible a bit longer.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

For people that follow more closely than I did at the time, did we know that 2014-2016 was coming back in ~2009/2010?

 

[Tie Domi Esquire]

What window? I wouldn't be shocked if they don't even make the finals next year.

 

[ORRFForever]

People have been piling the dirt on USA hockey since ‘98 but they’ll hang around in all likelihood.
There hasn’t been much best on best to base it on? Give em enough cracks they’ll likely win one of them. Don’t think they’d ever surpass Canada but the gap is less than it used to be and it doesn’t feel like they need a miracle fluke to win anymore.

But yeah if they go a decade between things again then I suppose that’ll continue the narrative that USA is and will always be terrible a bit longer.

I agree, the U.S. is likely to win (at least one) in 2026 or 2028 - this is the best U.S. team in 30 years.

I just think Canada is going to jump ahead in 2030 - it won't last forever and the world will catch up like they always do. But, in the mean time, Canadians can breathe. (smile)

Don't see some big advantage for Canada with 01-05 born players, so no I don't really view the 2025 NHL 4 Nations Faceoff (where the separation appeared to be minuscule) as USA's only and final opportunity to win a somewhat best on best event. It'll likely remain close for the foreseeable future.. and if you're talking like 2034 Olympics, then well I have no idea as that's so far out the realm of active players right now.

2030 will be your veterans vs our kids.

 

[WarriorofTime]

2026 and 2028 yes!

2030 will be interesting when we see America's Older Greatest Generation vs Canada's YOUNG(!) Next Generation.

USA best birth years were 97, 01, 04, with some good talent adjacent to it as well. Canada was also stacked in 97 (that’s McDavid year). 01 still is a bit young (23 years old right now) and 04 is definitely young and speculative. All three of those years should be mixed in (with others) in 2030. It’s obviously kinda early to tell but I think USA should have a good team in 2030 based on the birth years most relevant then.

 

[BB79]

I'm just glad that we have burgeoning star Cole Hutson on our Olympic roster. We absolutely can't lose

 

[ORRFForever]

USA best birth years were 97, 01, 04, with some good talent adjacent to it as well. Canada was also stacked in 97 (that’s McDavid year). 01 still is a bit young (23 years old right now) and 04 is definitely young and speculative. All three of those years should be mixed in (with others) in 2030. It’s obviously kinda early to tell but I think USA should have a good team in 2030 based on the birth years most relevant then.

The U.S. will always have a very good team - no doubt. I just think Canada MAY be entering a ONE OF OUR GREATEST TEAMS EVER stage - just like the U.S. did in 2025.

Again, 2030 may be the start of something special for Canada.

 

[WarriorofTime]

2030 will be your veterans vs our kids.

Back with the “group of 96” we’ll call it, USA had a good A team worth of players but then not much behind it or up and coming. So they had to ride those guys out as long as their careers would take them. But I think with this group that will make up the bulk of the ‘26 Olympic roster there’s still going to be plenty of reinforcements behind. 2003 is a shallow birth year outside of Luke Hughes but 04 and 05 should be promising as long as a couple guys hit and there are some 01 guys that aren’t at their prime yet that would be 28 years old come 2030 Olympics, which should be right in their prime.

 

[Mathieukferland]

For people that follow more closely than I did at the time, did we know that 2014-2016 was coming back in ~2009/2010?

2016 yes, it was clear they hung on to that group of players for too long. 2014 was viewed as being able to finish what that group started in 2010 by outperforming expectations (most people had USA finishing off the podium in 2010)

 

[ORRFForever]

Canadians have (grudgingly!) admitted the 2015 - 2019 drafts were AMAZING for the U.S.. Simply off the charts when it comes to talent and star power.

U.S. posters may have to do the same for the 2020-2026 Canadian drafts.

 

[a mangy Meowth]

I'm just glad that we have burgeoning star Cole Hutson on our Olympic roster. We absolutely can't lose

That's an automatic loss for me any way I look at it

 

[ORRFForever]

Back with the “group of 96” we’ll call it, USA had a good A team worth of players but then not much behind it or up and coming. So they had to ride those guys out as long as their careers would take them. But I think with this group that will make up the bulk of the ‘26 Olympic roster there’s still going to be plenty of reinforcements behind. 2003 is a shallow birth year outside of Luke Hughes but 04 and 05 should be promising as long as a couple guys hit and there are some 01 guys that aren’t at their prime yet that would be 28 years old come 2030 Olympics, which should be right in their prime.

Player's prime is USUALLY (not always) 25 - 29.

In 2030, most of the U.S.'s BEST players will be 30+. Still capable of winning, of course, but a step or 2 slower.

Those players plus a sprinkling of young American players will be competing against Canada's NEXT BEST generation. We'll see how it plays out but I like Canada's chances.

Again, I agree with the O.P. - if the U.S. is going to win BoB, 2026 and 2028 are their best opportunity for a while.

 

[93LEAFS]

Yeah world Juniors isn't a great way to project best on best success, all of our top guys at that age are playing NHL instead of that tourney

Yeah, even in the year the United States would have had their best USNTDP class (the kids born in 97) in 2017 where they are missing Matthews, Matthew Tkachuk, Hanifin and Werenski, Canada is still missing McDavid, Marner, Crouse, Konecny, and Chychrun.

 

[ORRFForever]

Not at all.

In the last 10 years USA has 4 wins at WJC and Canada has 4.

If anything I think this 4NF and the likely rematch next year is going to take the USA to the next level. Based on population alone, it wouldn't surprise me if USA eventually surpasses Canada, but there is no going back to where Canada is clearly better.

World Juniors have been showing that for some time.

Look at the talent that Canada has had drafted since 2020 - what's coming for Canada is scary good.

Don't see some big advantage for Canada with 01-05 born players, so no I don't really view the 2025 NHL 4 Nations Faceoff (where the separation appeared to be minuscule) as USA's only and final opportunity to win a somewhat best on best event. It'll likely remain close for the foreseeable future.. and if you're talking like 2034 Olympics, then well I have no idea as that's so far out the realm of active players right now.

You keep talking "born" and I keep talking "drafts". I wish we were on the same page, WT, otherwise my pea brain has to do math.

 

[ORRFForever]

What window? I wouldn't be shocked if they don't even make the finals next year.

Your "double negative" is confusing me - I'm Nun2Brite.

Are you saying the U.S. might NOT make the finals next year?

With the Olympics, you never know. That's why I like LOTS of teams at a BoB as opposed to the 4 at the 4 Nations.

 

[Oilslick941611]

Your "double negative" is confusing me - I'm Nun2Brite.

Are you saying the U.S. might NOT make the finals next year?

With the Olympics, you never know. That's why I like LOTS of team at a BoB as opposed to the 4 at the 4 Nations.

******************************************************************

NO CLIMATE CHANGE TALK PLEASE !!!!

(* It will get the thread shut down. *)

Thats how i read it, Im not sure i agree, but they will be less effective with an IIHF rule book. The Tkachuk brothers wont be able to roam free and hook/hook.obstruct/cheap shot after whistles. The US olympic team will go as far as Matthews goals take them.

 

[Bradely]

Hockey will always be king in Canada. The best athletes focus on hockey. Of course they play soccer and baseball and lacrosse and golf. They are athletes who can be good at lots of sports. But the very best focus on hockey. It’s why Canada always has the super elite players. The US super elite athletes focus on other sports first.

In response to the bold part:

https://macleans.ca/society/the-good-ol-soccer-game/

 

[ORRFForever]

2018 Draft:
USA: B.Tkachuk, J.Hughes, Farabee, Miller
CAN: Bouchard, Dobson, Hayton, Durzi

2019 Draft:
USA: J.Hughes, Boldy, Caufield, Zegras, Maccelli, Pinto, York, Vlasic, Wolf
CAN: Cozens, Byram, Harley, Dach

2020 Draft:
USA: Faber, Sanderson, Laferriere
CAN: Lafrenière, Byfield, Jarvis, Guhle, Rossi, Holloway, Quinn, Perfetti, Drysdale, Mercer, Cuylle, Schneider, Lapierre, Greig

2021 Draft:
USA: Beniers, L.Hughes, Sillinger, Knies, Johnson
CAN: Power, Johnston, McTavish, Guenther, Stankoven, Clarke

2022 Draft:
USA: Hutson, Cooley, Gauthier, Nazar
CAN: Wright, Korchinski, Mateychuk, Poitras, Geekie

2023 Draft:
USA: Smith, Leonard, Augustine
CAN: Bedard, Fantilli, Benson, Danielson, Ritchie

2024 Draft:
USA: Buium
CAN: Celebrini, Sennecke, Lindstrom, Iginla, Yakemchuk, Catton, Parekh, Dickinson, Luchanko

TEAM USA

B.Tkachuk - J.Hughes - Caufield
Boldy - Smith - Zegras
Knies - Beniers - Leonard
Gauthier - Cooley - Laferriere

Sanderson - Faber
Hutson - Vlasic
L.Hughes - York

Wolf
Augustine
Fowler

TEAM CANADA
Lafrenière - Bedard - Byfield
Guenther - Celebrini - Johnston
McTavish - Jarvis - Stankoven
Lindstrom - Cozens - Mercer

Dobson - Bouchard
Harley - Clarke
Power - Guhle

P.S. The Canadian team you put together is awful compared to what will available - but I know you were trying to make a point.