Is there an argument for Kopitar to be the 3rd best player of his generation behind Crosby/Ovechkin?

[Conspiracy Theorist]

Up there but Malkin is clearly 3rd.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Hey there thanks for sharing this. Have a couple of specific questions --
1) Looks like you used actual GF% at 5v5 is that right? Makes sense, just want to confirm.
2) Also looks like you did 'best 5 years' was that best 5 seasons or best 5 consecutive seasons? Not sure it would matter much either way but just curious.
3) Surprised (but maybe I shouldn't be) that Gordie is so high on this. He was long before my time but I always thought the biggest part of his legacy was just the length of it which showed the love of the game. Your table implies he was absolutely dominant at his peak, which... honestly makes sense I just hadn't thought about his peak in that way before.

***

No analysis is perfect but I think this shares the same fundamental problems that any type of relative comparison does -- namely, if your team is bad then your numbers will pop more than they should, and vice versa. For instance Gretz is #4 but those Edmonton team were absolute wagons offensively, if his best years were with a worse team I'm guessing he'd probably be higher.

Similarly an analysis like this favors someone like Kopi whose LA teams didn't really have that many other offensive superstars. Even still, #3 since 1960 (and a couple percentage point differential higher than Gretz) is much more than I'd expect. Especially when there's a mass of guys sitting around 12% and players like Fedorov and Toews (and Marco Sturm!) are at 10 or 11.

Thanks for sharing this! Appreciate the legwork in compiling something like this.

EDIT: Out of curiosity, where did traditionally strong power forwards tend to fall? I'm thinking guys like Iginla, Keith Tkachuk. Also wondering about good offensive players who were mostly islands on their teams (ie like Marian Gaborik and Rick Nash) -- if you've already done those two would love to see where they rank (if not, no worries I'm just curious). Thanks again!

I appreciate the feedback. Some good questions - here are my answers:

- correct, the data is based on actual (not expected) goals for and against. Over short timeframes, expected goals are generally more representative than actuals goals. Over larger sample sizes (ie 5 years), actual and expected are usually quite close (and using actual allows me to go much farther back).

- I don't have the data with me on this computer, but I'm fairly sure I didn't use consecutive seasons. I agree, not a big impact overall, but that would help players who had lots of injuries during their prime (ie Forsberg).

- I've written about this at length before, but lots of people wrongly assume that Gordie Howe was "only" a good player for a long time. At a first glance, his scoring stats aren't overly impressive (during his best years, the schedule was only 70 games, assists were handed out less frequently, and the league as a whole was quite low-scoring). He was also a very strong two-way player (much more than Gretzky and Lemieux). There were lots of books and newspaper articles that talked about this, but when the NHL released goals for/against data (I think that was round ten years ago now), the numbers showed that his reputation was justified.

- yes, the approach I used tends to favour players who have a weak supporting cast. Marcel Dionne looks very good (but he wasn't on my list because he didn't meet the minimum for penalty killing). On the other hand, it's not like Kopitar was playing on terrible teams. They've had their ups and downs, but have been only slightly worse than average over the entire span of Kopitar's career. The method can be tough when someone has a star forward anchoring another line (ie Gretzky and Messier, Sakic and Forsberg, Yzerman and Fedorov, Crosby and Malkin, etc).

- I don't have the data with me here, but Iginla ranks quite well under this method. But lots of top power forwards (including Tkachuk) look surprisingly weak. One of my takeaways (which makes sense when you think about it) is the reality that throwing a big hit doesn't necessarily translate into good defense. It can, but it's not automatic.

 

[Mrb1p]

Crosby
Ovi
Price
Malkin
Keith
Thornton
Karlsson
Kane


Are all ahead IMO.
Then theres Perry, Doughty, Sedins, MSL, Bergeron, Datsyuk, Chara, Toews Weber...

I think theres just too many names. 2000-2020 was a great time to be a hockey fan.

 

[Penguin Suited Up]

Yes, but all-time? Bobby Clarke was a pretty good player. Lindros was a beast as well....but he's obviously a "what if"

Yes, better than Bobby Clarke. They are similar in individual achievements and Malkin outpaced him on a points per game basis and in a much lower scoring era, while playing more games than him despite being an ‘ugly, injury prone schlub’ or whatever that random Flyers’ fan called him. Yeah, Clarke won a Selke, but again, I’ve never been confident in what the writers base their votes on for a Selke. It’s some weird grey space of, yeah, the guy’s good defensively based on nothing we can quantify and he puts up points.

 

[Jack Spider]

Malkin was the best player in the league in the late 2000s when Crosby was injured. Kopitar was never top 3

 

[MacMacandBarbie]

Am I missing something? What are you saying about Datsyuk peak? You seem to be suggesting that Datsyuk at his peak was better than anyone in the history of the game.....but then you go on to say you could argue he peaked as the best player in the league for a season or two. To be clear, I don't think either are true, but if someone peaked higher than anyone ever....wouldn't he be the best player in the league by far for that peak period?

I do think Datsyuk was a unique player, but I've certainly seen players peak better than him. I also don't think he was ever the best player in the world. Couple seasons he was in a smaller group of best players, but I don't I'd ever vote him as the best any given year.

I am saying we have never seen a player who approached the game like Datsyuk at that high of a level. I don't want to get all Liam Neeson on you, but he had a particular set of skills. I went on to say there are a couple of seasons at his peak where you could argue him as the best player in the league that season.

Particularly 2008-09, Datsyuk won the Selke, finished 4th in scoring, and had one of the highest corsi ratings and was a finalist for the Hart. There is a legit argument for him putting together the best season in the league that year. Kopitar has never had a season like that.

 

[MOGlLNY]

It’s pretty surely Malkin, but I don’t think it’s completely insane. Longevity, availability and two way ability matter. Led playoffs in points both years they won the cup, I believe. I’d put him at 4.

Kopitar is also my favorite player ever, so.

 

[Randyne]

And how much of Malkin's offensive gap was credited to being paired with one of the most dominate players of their era?

In Malkin case it's otherwise.
Malkin dreamed of being a captain (see his essay).
His production was way higher when Sid wasn't available: 199 points in 148 games =1.34 PPG (and only 1.08 PPG with Sid on the roster).
Also his +/- would be several times higher w/o Sid (who is hiding his minuses behind Malkin by escaping quickly to the bench, Malkin has no time to change the situation):
+25 in 148 games w/o Sid; and only +3 in 1065 games with Sid.

 

[PainForShane]

I appreciate the feedback. Some good questions - here are my answers:

- correct, the data is based on actual (not expected) goals for and against. Over short timeframes, expected goals are generally more representative than actuals goals. Over larger sample sizes (ie 5 years), actual and expected are usually quite close (and using actual allows me to go much farther back).

- I don't have the data with me on this computer, but I'm fairly sure I didn't use consecutive seasons. I agree, not a big impact overall, but that would help players who had lots of injuries during their prime (ie Forsberg).

- I've written about this at length before, but lots of people wrongly assume that Gordie Howe was "only" a good player for a long time. At a first glance, his scoring stats aren't overly impressive (during his best years, the schedule was only 70 games, assists were handed out less frequently, and the league as a whole was quite low-scoring). He was also a very strong two-way player (much more than Gretzky and Lemieux). There were lots of books and newspaper articles that talked about this, but when the NHL released goals for/against data (I think that was round ten years ago now), the numbers showed that his reputation was justified.

- yes, the approach I used tends to favour players who have a weak supporting cast. Marcel Dionne looks very good (but he wasn't on my list because he didn't meet the minimum for penalty killing). On the other hand, it's not like Kopitar was playing on terrible teams. They've had their ups and downs, but have been only slightly worse than average over the entire span of Kopitar's career. The method can be tough when someone has a star forward anchoring another line (ie Gretzky and Messier, Sakic and Forsberg, Yzerman and Fedorov, Crosby and Malkin, etc).

- I don't have the data with me here, but Iginla ranks quite well under this method. But lots of top power forwards (including Tkachuk) look surprisingly weak. One of my takeaways (which makes sense when you think about it) is the reality that throwing a big hit doesn't necessarily translate into good defense. It can, but it's not automatic.

All sounds good, thx for sharing your reasoning (and 100% agree with you on using actual gf% regardless of how far back xgf goes, which I doubt is even close to 1960). Also seems like you thought about most of the little decisions you were making along the way which is all anyone can ask for.

I don't want to us steer too far off track, but in my view the context in your second to last paragraph might be worth discussing further -- I don't know this for sure but my guess is a lot of good teams have multiple scoring lines with superstars on each one, but of course you have Kariya / Selanne situations (which is probably at least part of the reason why Rucchin shows up here), and I don't know that Kopitar played on a team with a consistently elite second line. Ie prime Mike Richards and / or Jeff Carter are perfectly good players, but not really the same as someone like Mess or Malkin or whoever. And a lot of these guys were pre-cap meaning the possibility of superteams, LA hasn't been bad but not in the same league as pre-cap Colorado / Detroit, Gretzky's Oilers vs Islanders etc.

Anyway if you figure that's worth maybe a couple percentage points, Kopitar's STILL elite with a career at a well above 10% 'tilting the ice' factor while also being matched up against the other teams' top offensive lines for most of his career. Using more standard stats his career Corsi / Fenwick are above 55% (in both reg season and also playoffs), that's absolutely nuts given how he was deployed. Tbf Bergeron's possession numbers are significantly better, but I don't think it's a fair comparison because Marchand and Pasta are obviously far better than Dustin Brown or whoever else has ended up on Kopi's wing.

And then Kopi also played heavy shifts all the time as well.

All that to say he's a damn good 2-way player, one who's still producing at age 37 -- 4 point night in Gm 2. Longevity has to factor in here too but that's a different discussion.

Thanks so much for doing and then sharing your work! Really enjoyed the convo (especially your Gordie info, changed the way I think about him).

 

[wetcoast]

In Malkin case it's otherwise.
Malkin dreamed of being a captain (see his essay).
His production was way higher when Sid wasn't available: 199 points in 148 games =1.34 PPG (and only 1.08 PPG with Sid on the roster).

I'm guessing that you are comparing peak Malkin years here for the most part against his overall resume which includes these last couple decling years?

Malkin has an extremely strong case for 3rd best player but this post is misguided to say the least as it lacks context.

Also his +/- would be several times higher w/o Sid (who is hiding his minuses behind Malkin by escaping quickly to the bench, Malkin has no time to change the situation):

Do you really want to go down this road and apply the same views on Ovi?

Everyone saw that Detroit focused on Crosby during the Pens first 2 SC finals runs and people actually watch the games as well when Malkin in his last couple of really good seasons was giving much better offensive zone starts to succeed.

+25 in 148 games w/o Sid; and only +3 in 1065 games with Sid.

Once again numbers with zero context.

As for the. OP, I love Kopitar and 2 way forwards in general and maybe Kopitar has a small case for 4 th with Kane but the Big are out of reach.

 

[Randyne]

I'm guessing that you are comparing peak Malkin years here for the most part against his overall resume which includes these last couple decling years?

Last 3 years Malkin didn't play w/o Sid. So there is no data for that span.
Here is his stats w/o Sid since 2018/19: 45P in 31 games =1.45 PPG so the gap is even much bigger

 

[Randyne]

Do you really want to go down this road and apply the same views on Ovi?

What road? It's otherwwise. Sidfans constantly mocking Ovi for staying on the ice when he was dead tired ("controller disconnected"). Ovi tries to get all his minuses w/o gifting them to his teammates.

 

[wetcoast]

What road? It's otherwwise. Sidfans constantly mocking Ovi for staying on the ice when he was dead tired ("controller disconnected"). Ovi tries to get all his minuses w/o gifting them to his teammates.

One wonders if you even watched Ovi play this year as he seldom ever enters the defensive zone of the ice and in the offensive zone often heads straight to the bench but nice try trying to project that on Crosby.

Like I said up thread Malkin is a clear 3rd place player of his generation and doesn't need your misplaced stats to try and show something that isn't there.

The thread was about Kopitar and his he looks for the 4ish placing but you just had to distract in what is really just projection.

 

[Randyne]

One wonders if you even watched Ovi play this year as he seldom ever enters the defensive zone of the ice and in the offensive zone often heads straight to the bench but nice try trying to project that on Crosby.

This season I saw one time when Ovi left the rink and the goal was scored a few seconds later. Sid has hidden his minuses at least 5-6 times. Couple of them were instant when Malkin stepped the ice. I don't watch all Sid games.

Look at the stats yourself. Malkin has only 3 pluses in 1065 games with Sid =.003 per game.
In exactly those 1065 games Sid has 129 pluses.
You can tell that Malkin is trash, but when Sid was out, in 148 games Malkin has 25 pluses =.169 per game.
And it's his entire career - not only peak.
Old Malkin has 9 pluses in 31 games =.290 per game (w/o Sid)

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Lundqvist/Price/Quick/Luongo
Chara/Karlsson/Doughty/Keith/Hedman
Kane/Malkin/Giroux/Stamkos

There are players I'd take ahead of him.

 

[daver]

Particularly 2008-09, Datsyuk won the Selke, finished 4th in scoring, and had one of the highest corsi ratings and was a finalist for the Hart. There is a legit argument for him putting together the best season in the league that year. Kopitar has never had a season like that.

Him winning the Selke, which is partially based on offense, propelled him the 4th place in the Hart voting that year; not in addtion to winning the Selke.

Finishing 4th in scoring on a powerhouse team doesn't usually warrant Hart consideration.

Regardless, he did not continue his "best player" ways in the playoffs that year. At best, he was the 4th best player in the late '00s.

 

[dgibb10]

I think there is more of an argument for Kopi vs. Malkin than many believe.

I have to imagine being paired next to Crosby for your entire career in an offense first play style would yield considerably more points than the defense first system that LA has ran for the past few decades. When you think of LA over the past 20 years, who else is synonymous as an offensive threat? I think you really just have Kopi. So for me that factors heavily for me.

From a defensive perspective, I think there is no question that Kopitar is the better/most complete player by a large margin. He also runs heavy PK minutes while Malkin sits that part of the game out. When you compare players, you have to consider not only the points they contribute to, but the points they keep off the board.

I think it really just depends on how you view their play styles. Is the offensive gap between Malkin and Kopitar larger than their defensive gap? And how much of Malkin's offensive gap was credited to being paired with one of the most dominate players of their era?

If only we had a year that crosby missed basically all of to look at.

I mean, if Malkin won the hart trophy and led the league in scoring in this hypothetical year, surely that would put this argument to bed.

 

[dabeechman]

Since you brought up missing games, does the fact that despite joining the league at the same time, Malkin has missed 3 entire seasons worth of games compared to Kopitar?

Malkin has played in 69g or fewer in 11 of his 19 seasons, compared to Kopitar's 0. This excludes the 12-13 lockout and 20-21 covid seasons (during covid Malkin also missed half a season while Kopitar played a full season). In 19 seasons, Kopitar has only missed 44 regular season games.

Again, I am not saying Kopitar is the better player, just that the argument isn't as far fetched as some seem to think.

I believe Malkin to be the superior offensive player, but hockey is more than offense, and I think Kopitar isn't getting a fair shake.

 

[MacMacandBarbie]

Him winning the Selke, which is partially based on offense, propelled him the 4th place in the Hart voting that year; not in addtion to winning the Selke.

Finishing 4th in scoring on a powerhouse team doesn't usually warrant Hart consideration.

Regardless, he did not continue his "best player" ways in the playoffs that year. At best, he was the 4th best player in the late '00s.

He had Hart consideration, and was a finalist. He didn't finish 4th. 4th in scoring and a Selke clearly does warrant Hart consideration. He also lost out to peak OV. The point was Kopitar has never put it all together in a season to get Hart consideration like Datsyuk did during his peak.

 

[MacMacandBarbie]

Since you brought up missing games, does the fact that despite joining the league at the same time, Malkin has missed 3 entire seasons worth of games compared to Kopitar?

Malkin has played in 69g or fewer in 11 of his 19 seasons, compared to Kopitar's 0. This excludes the 12-13 lockout and 20-21 covid seasons (during covid Malkin also missed half a season while Kopitar played a full season). In 19 seasons, Kopitar has only missed 44 regular season games.

Again, I am not saying Kopitar is the better player, just that the argument isn't as far fetched as some seem to think.

I believe Malkin to be the superior offensive player, but hockey is more than offense, and I think Kopitar isn't getting a fair shake.

This is starting to get ridiculous to the point we are trying to rewrite history in this thread. Malkin is one of the greatest game breaking talents the league has ever seen. In his prime and healthy, he he has shown the ability to be the best player in the league time and time again, both in the playoffs and regular season. Malkin can take over entire series on his own, and can beat you in so many ways. Kopitar has never been that guy. It actually is pretty ridiculous to try to argue him as better than Malkin, and I am surprised to see people are grasping at straws to try to prop him up as such.

 

[bambamcam4ever]

Maybe not for career but for that span I am not really seeing a credible argument that puts Kopitar over Giroux. There were several years Giroux was a top 2 center in the league, I don't think Kopitar ever ventured further than 5th. Kopitar is the new Sundin. Was never the best player in the league but played at a consistent level for a long time and passed most of his contemporaries in career numbers. Even in playoff numbers there is literally zero edge for Kopitar despite playing on more contenders than Giroux.

Giroux wasn't some slouch defensively before his skating dropped either. Without injuries Giroux's offensive numbers likely gap Kopitars. Even with Giroux's surgeries affecting his speed, he still is dead even in points per game over their careers. Not to mention the fact that Giroux played behind Carter and Richards at the very start of his career without PP time which skews the numbers he would have put up, evidenced by his 2010 playoff run.

I think Giroux has the top 2 or 3 seasons between the two of them.

These honestly remind me of the arguments for Toews > Malkin which were ridiculous as hell. At least Kopitar is comparable but there's not some mega gap between him and Giroux. Intangibles do not count for twice as much as tangibles.

Giroux was never ever a top 2 C in the league. Crosby and Malkin existed. And after 2014 Giroux couldn't really consistently create space for himself and could only put up numbers at ES in systems that produced rush opportunities. Kopitar played his prime in an extremely conservative system under Sutter, he was always the more impactful player.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

I agree Malkin is a better player, but just to show how good Kopitar's availability has been:

Most games played (vs games on the schedule), up to 2023-24, best 18 consecutive seasons

In all of NHL history, Kopitar has the T-4th best availability over each player's best 18 consecutive seasons.

(Two minor notes - first, for 2021, I assumed the schedule was 70 games. The actual number varied slightly from team to team. Second, I haven't uploaded the data for 2024-25 yet, which is why I stopped at the previous season. If anything, this probably hurts Kopitar, because he played 81 out of 82 games this past year).

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

He had Hart consideration, and was a finalist. He didn't finish 4th. 4th in scoring and a Selke clearly does warrant Hart consideration. He also lost out to peak OV. The point was Kopitar has never put it all together in a season to get Hart consideration like Datsyuk did during his peak.

What?!?

Go look at 2018. He should have had a Hart. He definitely had heavy consideration.

The 2018 Selke was a "well, we can give Kopitar the Selke so let's give someone else the Hart."

Ignorance on what Kopitar has done all over this thread, it's maddening. Like I'm fine if someone else has players higher--there are good arguments!--but so many of them seem based on completely overlooking defense, deployment, health, consistency, or, like in this case, just facts.

 

[dabeechman]

This is starting to get ridiculous to the point we are trying to rewrite history in this thread. Malkin is one of the greatest game breaking talents the league has ever seen. In his prime and healthy, he he has shown the ability to be the best player in the league time and time again, both in the playoffs and regular season. Malkin can take over entire series on his own, and can beat you in so many ways. Kopitar has never been that guy. It actually is pretty ridiculous to try to argue him as better than Malkin, and I am surprised to see people are grasping at straws to try to prop him up as such.

So for what healthy and prime for...4 of 19 seasons?

How am I rewriting history? The stats are public information. Malkin is injured more than he has ever been healthy. Consistency and reliability should be factored into their careers when comparing the two.

You do realize Kopitar has scored more points than Malkin since the 2012-2013 lockout right? Mind you while being a Selke caliber player still to this day.

 

[MacMacandBarbie]

What?!?

Go look at 2018. He should have had a Hart. He definitely had heavy consideration.

The 2018 Selke was a "well, we can give Kopitar the Selke so let's give someone else the Hart."

Ignorance on what Kopitar has done all over this thread, it's maddening. Like I'm fine if someone else has players higher--there are good arguments!--but so many of them seem based on completely overlooking defense, deployment, health, consistency, or, like in this case, just facts.

That was my point though, Datsyuk lost out to peak OV. To be considered the most valuable player outside of the Big 3 during that time was something special, it was the second season in a row that Datsyuk won the Selke and finished top 5 in scoring as well. He had repeated success. Kopitar finished 3rd in voting by getting a handful more 4th place votes than claude giroux. He finished 9th in scoring. The media was all over the place that year, but Kopitar was never a front runner during a very weak year. If Edmonton had made the playoffs and wasn't a dumpster fire, McDavid probably should have won.