Is there an argument for Kopitar to be the 3rd best player of his generation behind Crosby/Ovechkin?

[Nadal On Clay]

Malkin in his age 36 season was playing with weaker linemates than Kopitar

Kopitar was the 3rd best forward offensively on the Kings that year. His offense was tied to superior offensive players in Kempe and fiala (mostly PP)

Malkin was still a strong 1C in his age 2022-2023 season and I'd take him ahead of Kopitar in 2023-2024. He got weaker linemates due to Pens lack of depth and Crosby being better 1C then him in 2023 still (93 pt year for Crosby with Guentzel and Rakell mostly)

Kopitar 2023-2024 and 2024-2025 Id take over Malkin though for the same years as Malkin is too broken and not able to be a top end player anymore.

Kane also in 2013 lockout or not, was the best player on the hawks from start to finish. His smythe may be weak sure, but his year as a whole was elite. That year was better than any Kopitar has had in his career besides 2018 and is one of Kanes top 5 seasons (2010, 2013, 2015, 2016 and 2019).

You can't be 20+ pt worse than a player per 82 games, have less high-end years, worse playoff performances and less cups and have only a bit better longevity than a player and pretend that player is ahead of the comparable

Malkin + Kane both peaked much higher, had 4-5 prime years Kopitar never touched, were better playoff players and are still 80-90%% as good as Kopitar is at 36/37

Kopitar and Malkin had a 3 pts difference at ES in their 36 y/o season. He was not the 3rd best forward on the Kings offensively (at least points wise). The linemate argument here holds barely any value as Malkin played with better players on the PP (Crosby, Guentzel).

For Kopitar vs Kane, we are comparing a 95 pts player to a 80 pts player who’s much better at defense (pro rated to 82 games). It’s no guarantees Kane would have kept that pace for a full season, especially when you look at his prior 2 seasons and the 2 seasons after where he barely finished PPG.

As for your last paragraph, both Malkin and Kane had max 3 seasons better than Kopitar’s best . Malkin had 3 (2008, 2009, 2012) and Kane had 2 (2016, 2019). I can even see some people debating 2018 Kopitar vs 2019 Kane.

 

[Penguin Suited Up]

Kopitar and Malkin had a 3 pts difference at ES in their 36 y/o season. So, no, Kopitar was not more dependant on the PP. He was also not the 3rd best forward offensively (at least points wise). The linemate argument here holds barely any value as Malkin played with better players on the PP (Crosby, Guentzel).

For Kopitar vs Kane, we are comparing a 95 pts player to a 80 pts player who’s much better at defense (pro rated to 82 games). It’s no guarantees Kane would have kept that pace for a pull season, especially when you look at his prior 2 seasons and the 2 seasons after where he barely finished PPG.

OT, but Nadal better than Federer is a weird take to me.

 

[SlickHands]

There's definitely an argument for Kopitar over Datsyuk. At least that's a conversation worth having. #3 of his era is a non-starter because Malkin and Kane are definitely ahead - and that's before considering other forwards, defensemen or goalies.

As for Datsyuk vs Kopitar comparison:

Kopitar has better playoffs
Kopitar has 500+ regular season gap (and 350+ point gap)

I think we can give Datsyuk the edge for peak, but overall, I think it's close.

The only arguments I see for Kopitar in that one center on longevity and durability (and not having a home country with a league that pays $). At peak, I've never seen another player like Datsyuk.

 

[MacMacandBarbie]

The only arguments I see for Kopitar in that one center on longevity and durability (and not having a home country with a league that pays $). At peak, I've never seen another player like Datsyuk.

Agree with the peak argument of Datsyuk. We have never seen a player have a peak like Datsyuk, and we may never again. Such a unique player, and you could argue he peaked as the best player in the league for a season or two. Can't say the same for Kopitar.

 

[PainForShane]

The way the 'generation' was defined (that's a loose term) was being drafted from 2000-2010. I don't think the OP was looking to cherry pick things, that's just how it fell out. Kopi was drafted in 2005 so that +/- window of 5 years seems reasonable.

Datsyuk is just before that.

If you include players like Datsyuk, Forsberg, Fedorov, Sakic etc, then no Kopitar isn't the #3, and it's not close. But for the purposes of this convo those guys all fall outside the scope

 

[Phil68]

Kopitar has pretty much always been underappreciated imo.

But he does have one glaring weakness on his resume: he was never the best player in the world.

Malkin obviously was in 2012. Kane easily was in 2016.

Not saying that ends the argument but at this level, being that guy for a time has to count for something.

Also you have to at least win a couple of scoring titles as well.

 

[MacMacandBarbie]

Kopitar and Malkin had a 3 pts difference at ES in their 36 y/o season. He was not the 3rd best forward on the Kings offensively (at least points wise). The linemate argument here holds barely any value as Malkin played with better players on the PP (Crosby, Guentzel).

For Kopitar vs Kane, we are comparing a 95 pts player to a 80 pts player who’s much better at defense (pro rated to 82 games). It’s no guarantees Kane would have kept that pace for a full season, especially when you look at his prior 2 seasons and the 2 seasons after where he barely finished PPG.

As for your last paragraph, both Malkin and Kane had max 3 seasons better than Kopitar’s best . Malkin had 3 (2008, 2009, 2012) and Kane had 2 (2016, 2019). I can even see some people debating 2018 Kopitar vs 2019 Kane.

2018 Kopitar had a very lackluster playoffs. Essentially he just had a top 10 regular season finish and a Selke. Are you taking playoffs into consideration? I like 2010 Kane over anything Kopitar did. Finished top 10 in points in regular season, played every game. 28 points in the playoffs, led his team in goals created and scores the goal to seal the deal.

 

[Nadal On Clay]

2018 Kopitar had a very lackluster playoffs. Essentially he just had a top 10 regular season finish and a Selke. Are you taking playoffs into consideration? I like 2010 Kane over anything Kopitar did. Finished top 10 in points in regular season, played every game. 28 points in the playoffs, led his team in goals created and scores the goal to seal the deal.

Yes, that’s fair. Depending on the weight you put on playoffs he can be ahead.

 

[vancityluongo]

after malkin, yes.

between bergeron, kane, and kopitar for #4. giroux feels like he's after them, and then toews, stamkos after that

 

[JaegerDice]

The only guy that seemed like he might have a shot to be the number 3 guy ahead of Malkin was Karlsson, but he couldn't stay healthy and then injuries crippled his impact.

 

[JaegerDice]

after malkin, yes.

between bergeron, kane, and kopitar for #4. giroux feels like he's after them, and then toews, stamkos after that

On what planet is Giroux in the conversation with Toews and Stamkos?

 

[Hockey Outsider]

The formatting of the tables has been ruined, but I'll link to this thread. I calculated the top 30 forwards (and defensemen) from 1960 to 2020, based on which players improved their team's ES goal differential to the greatest extent. (There are a bunch of parameters that were used - read the thread for details).

The results are largely what you'd expect. Gretzky and Howe are in the top five. Lemieux (a bit more reliant on the powerplay) is just outside the top ten. Near the top of the list you have very strong two-way players like Bobby Clarke, Ron Francis, Doug Gilmour, Patrice Bergeron, and Mike Modano. A bit lower on the list there's Pavel Datsyuk, Sergei Fedorov, Patrik Elias, Jonathan Toews, Marian Hossa, Bryan Trottier, Joe Sakic, and Steve Larmer. A one-dimensional forward can still rank high (ie Paul Kariya), but it's rare.

(And for those curious - Orr ranks first on the list of defensemen. Bourque, Howe, MacInnis, Pronger, Howe and Salming are all the next six players. I'm listing these names to demonstrate that the results make sense. It closely corresponds to players who have a reputation for strong two-way play).

By this metric, Kopitar had the 3rd most impactful prime (over the span of sixty years) - in terms of who made their team better when they were on the ice. It can be misleading to evaluate Kopitar only by points. He's one of the greatest two-way forwards in NHL history, and it's easy to ignore overlook that fact when he's being compared to two forwards who, despite scoring a lot of points, are vastly less impactful defensively. (On the other hand, the analysis above looks at ES performance only - he was quite a bit less productive than Malkin and Kane with the man advantage, and that's a legit argument against him).

I'd still rank Malkin and Kane higher overall, but the gap is much smaller than many people have suggested.

 

[Primary Assist]

Isn't the general consensus that Bergeron is better than Kopitar? Or is that only in terms of the Selke?

I don't think most people have Bergeron as the third best player of his generation so I'd be surprised if Kopitar was

 

[Kegs]

I’m bias but I like Bergeron better.

 

[Curufinwe]

And still better than any Flyers player in the history of their garbage franchise.

Certainly uglier than any hockey player in history.

 

[Curufinwe]

I’m bias but I like Bergeron better.

-ed

 

[Curufinwe]

On what planet is Giroux in the conversation with Toews and Stamkos?

Giroux had a much better career in the regular season. Not his fault Toews was on better playoff teams.

 

[dgibb10]

Yes, and it’s a compelling argument.

Kopitar has been counted on to be LA’s best offensive AND defensive player his entire career.

I’m fine with Malkin being #3 because raw statistics do matter in these discussions and a large majority favor Malkin because of that. But switch these players and they likely wind up with similar career stats and all the same hardware.

Damn if only we had a year malkin played where crosby was hurt basically the entire year. Surely he wouldn't win the hart trophy in this year since crosby was so impactful to helping his stats.

 

[Kegs]

Giroux had a much better career in the regular season. Not his fault Toews was on better playoff teams.

Giroux is underrated. I hope he gets in the hall of fame.

 

[PainForShane]

The formatting of the tables has been ruined, but I'll link to this thread. I calculated the top 30 forwards (and defensemen) from 1960 to 2020, based on which players improved their team's ES goal differential to the greatest extent. (There are a bunch of parameters that were used - read the thread for details).

The results are largely what you'd expect. Gretzky and Howe are in the top five. Lemieux (a bit more reliant on the powerplay) is just outside the top ten. Near the top of the list you have very strong two-way players like Bobby Clarke, Ron Francis, Doug Gilmour, Patrice Bergeron, and Mike Modano. A bit lower on the list there's Pavel Datsyuk, Sergei Fedorov, Patrik Elias, Jonathan Toews, Marian Hossa, Bryan Trottier, Joe Sakic, and Steve Larmer. A one-dimensional forward can still rank high (ie Paul Kariya), but it's rare.

(And for those curious - Orr ranks first on the list of defensemen. Bourque, Howe, MacInnis, Pronger, Howe and Salming are all the next six players. I'm listing these names to demonstrate that the results make sense. It closely corresponds to players who have a reputation for strong two-way play).

By this metric, Kopitar had the 3rd most impactful prime (over the span of sixty years) - in terms of who made their team better when they were on the ice. It can be misleading to evaluate Kopitar only by points. He's one of the greatest two-way forwards in NHL history, and it's easy to ignore overlook that fact when he's being compared to two forwards who, despite scoring a lot of points, are vastly less impactful defensively. (On the other hand, the analysis above looks at ES performance only - he was quite a bit less productive than Malkin and Kane with the man advantage, and that's a legit argument against him).

I'd still rank Malkin and Kane higher overall, but the gap is much smaller than many people have suggested.

Hey there thanks for sharing this. Have a couple of specific questions --
1) Looks like you used actual GF% at 5v5 is that right? Makes sense, just want to confirm.
2) Also looks like you did 'best 5 years' was that best 5 seasons or best 5 consecutive seasons? Not sure it would matter much either way but just curious.
3) Surprised (but maybe I shouldn't be) that Gordie is so high on this. He was long before my time but I always thought the biggest part of his legacy was just the length of it which showed the love of the game. Your table implies he was absolutely dominant at his peak, which... honestly makes sense I just hadn't thought about his peak in that way before.

***

No analysis is perfect but I think this shares the same fundamental problems that any type of relative comparison does -- namely, if your team is bad then your numbers will pop more than they should, and vice versa. For instance Gretz is #4 but those Edmonton team were absolute wagons offensively, if his best years were with a worse team I'm guessing he'd probably be higher.

Similarly an analysis like this favors someone like Kopi whose LA teams didn't really have that many other offensive superstars. Even still, #3 since 1960 (and a couple percentage point differential higher than Gretz) is much more than I'd expect. Especially when there's a mass of guys sitting around 12% and players like Fedorov and Toews (and Marco Sturm!) are at 10 or 11.

Thanks for sharing this! Appreciate the legwork in compiling something like this.

EDIT: Out of curiosity, where did traditionally strong power forwards tend to fall? I'm thinking guys like Iginla, Keith Tkachuk. Also wondering about good offensive players who were mostly islands on their teams (ie like Marian Gaborik and Rick Nash) -- if you've already done those two would love to see where they rank (if not, no worries I'm just curious). Thanks again!

 

[Penguin Suited Up]

Certainly uglier than any hockey player in history.

Did you know Malkin has won as many individual trophies (5) as the entire Flyers’ franchise since the turn of the century?

Malkin:
1 Hart
1 Conn Smythe
2 Art Ross
1 Ted Lindsay

Flyers since 2000:
2 Masterton
1 Selke
1 Jack Adams
1 William Jennings

 

[Boyon90]

great thread

 

[Toby91ca]

Did you know Malkin has won as many individual trophies (5) as the entire Flyers’ franchise since the turn of the century?

Malkin:
1 Hart
1 Conn Smythe
2 Art Ross
1 Ted Lindsay

Flyers since 2000:
2 Masterton
1 Selke
1 Jack Adams
1 William Jennings

Yes, but all-time? Bobby Clarke was a pretty good player. Lindros was a beast as well....but he's obviously a "what if"

 

[Toby91ca]

Agree with the peak argument of Datsyuk. We have never seen a player have a peak like Datsyuk, and we may never again. Such a unique player, and you could argue he peaked as the best player in the league for a season or two. Can't say the same for Kopitar.

Am I missing something? What are you saying about Datsyuk peak? You seem to be suggesting that Datsyuk at his peak was better than anyone in the history of the game.....but then you go on to say you could argue he peaked as the best player in the league for a season or two. To be clear, I don't think either are true, but if someone peaked higher than anyone ever....wouldn't he be the best player in the league by far for that peak period?

I do think Datsyuk was a unique player, but I've certainly seen players peak better than him. I also don't think he was ever the best player in the world. Couple seasons he was in a smaller group of best players, but I don't I'd ever vote him as the best any given year.

 

[dabeechman]

I think there is more of an argument for Kopi vs. Malkin than many believe.

I have to imagine being paired next to Crosby for your entire career in an offense first play style would yield considerably more points than the defense first system that LA has ran for the past few decades. When you think of LA over the past 20 years, who else is synonymous as an offensive threat? I think you really just have Kopi. So for me that factors heavily for me.

From a defensive perspective, I think there is no question that Kopitar is the better/most complete player by a large margin. He also runs heavy PK minutes while Malkin sits that part of the game out. When you compare players, you have to consider not only the points they contribute to, but the points they keep off the board.

I think it really just depends on how you view their play styles. Is the offensive gap between Malkin and Kopitar larger than their defensive gap? And how much of Malkin's offensive gap was credited to being paired with one of the most dominate players of their era?