I'm talking strictly unlucky teams in the draft lottery. I have the analytics to back it up. My list is of teams that have had the worst "luck" in the last 5 lotteries.
Is the draft lottery working?
- Thread starter TheOtherOne
- Start date
I'm talking strictly unlucky teams in the draft lottery. I have the analytics to back it up. My list is of teams that have had the worst "luck" in the last 5 lotteries.
TerminatorBlue
Registered User
I agree with Brian Burke that Only the worst 5 teams should have a shot at the #1 pick.
SJSharksfan39
Registered User
I say this without reading the thread so I'm probably repeating this question. I'm watching that last night and I wonder how the Blackhawks went from 12 to the top 3, and it was a foregone conclusion, like there was so math equation that hit to make that true. No one explained it and I was confused. The percentages should work as percentages. The lower the percentage, the lower the chance. If you have an 8% shot at the first pick, it shouldn't skyrocket up to 90% because where you were supposed to go didn't happen.
Jason MacIsaac
Registered User
SJSharksfan39
Registered User
Just do inverse order of standings. That seems much more fair than this...
NoQuitInNewMexico
it's okay cause it's all just the way it should be
All you can do in the draft lottery is skip up to the top 3, stay in place, or fall 1-3 places if teams behind you skip up to the top 3. There wasn't an option for the Hawks to pick 10th or whatever.
2019 NHL Draft Lottery Odds | Tankathon
It looks like their individual odds of skipping up were pretty low (10.2%), but if you add those odds with the teams behind them, the teams directly above them, it's pretty likely that someone who's just average instead of bad will make the jump.
The actual mechanism they use for making the selections is four lottery balls, so even though I think I'm decent at math I wouldn't be able to wrap my head around it.
Boo hoo you all cried about Edmonton getting picks because they were crap and now you have to live with the consequences. If you don't like it you have nobody but yourselves to blame.
Rangers79
Registered User
If the Panthers or the Wild moved up no one would be complaining this much. It's just because it's Chicago that moved up.
Rangers79
Registered User
Exactly. People would be complaining if the same team got it 3 years in a row because they were terrible or run badly. There's no winning no matter how they do the lottery. This gives any team out of the playoffs a chance and I'm honestly fine with it. Rangers moved down 2 spots last year, it sucked but this year they moved up. Vancouver just happens to have no luck in the lottery it happens.
It's like when people pay $100 on lottery tickets and lose but the guy who bought 1 ticket wins.
Panthaz89
Buffalo Sabres, Carolina Panthers fan
Its the same but those same people cheer for better odds.
Kairi Zaide
Unforgiven
Isn't trading good players to set yourself up for the future what "tanking" is though? AKA rebuilding. My point is that having ZERO CHANCE of first overall didn't stop the Sens from "tanking."
Unless you consider "tanking" somehow different from rebuilding. If so, how? You just established that you don't think selling off all the top talent for futures is tanking. Do you think players are intentionally dangling their multi-million dollar contracts by throwing games?
i was going to add a visual ancient dance to the ancient gods, but f*** it. i am too tired to think.
simple answer, it was or is pure luck. i never would have thought selecting #3 would be in air.
Rorschach
Who the f*** is Trevor Moore?
Forget what happened to the Kings, that's a different story. The draft lottery works when the top of the draft is a Connor McDavid or Sidney Crosby. It fails in its tank-prevention intent when the top of the draft is a normal since in most years, most teams don't try to tank. I'm pretty sure no one tanked for Nico vs. Nolan. The problem is, most years the class is like a N vs. N or a Jack or KK. It's usually not a Sid, Connor or even an Ovi vs. Geno draft. The special drafts are usually 1 in 10 classes. That means the lottery is a crapshow 9/10 times, in the drafts where no one is trying to tank.
Are you f***ing serious? The Canucks don't deserve 1st because they have a Calder candidate??? Are you aware of how bad this team has been the last 4 years?
How many NHL teams have NEVER drafted 1st overall and NEVER won a Stanley Cup while being in the league for 50 years?
One team: Vancouver
The only other teams to have never been awarded 1st and never won a cup are Columbus, Minnesota Nashville, San Jose, and Vegas. All but one have been in the league for less than 20 years.
Easy for you to say. Our top 3 drought is almost as long as your cup drought.
Good thing it looks like you have an expansion team to save you from this misery.
Ted Hoffman
Done
- Dec 15, 2002
- 29,289
- 8,727
Conditional probability. Quick example: say on a car lot there's 100 vehicles; 30 are Mustangs, of which 20 are red. There's also 40 Corvettes of which 30 are black and 10 are silver, and then of the other 30 vehicles there's 5 of those that are red If you go pick a car at random, there's a 30% chance you pick a Mustang, a 40% chance you pick a Corvette, and a 25% chance you pick a red Mustang; if you say "I want a red car" and then pick one at random, there's a 20/25 = 80% chance you pick a Mustang and a 0% chance you pick a Corvette [because none of them are red].
We haven't seen anything approaching what the Sabres did in 2014/15. So, I would say it is working as a deterrent.
The lotto-system will always have some people unhappy, thinking they got wronged. It's far from perfect, but I don't have an issue with it.
The lotto-system will always have some people unhappy, thinking they got wronged. It's far from perfect, but I don't have an issue with it.
CraigsList
RIP #13
The percentages for each non-playoff team should never be fixed, and I think draft spots 1-15 should ALL be based on a lottery. That means even the 15th placed team in the standings has a shot at perhaps the 9th or 10th spot in the draft (just hypothetically speaking).
How would this work? Easy, once the lottery for the first pick is made, the percentages for each team for the next pick is changed with the allocation of the winning team's percentage divided by the number of teams that are left picking. To understand me better, let's use the 2019 draft as an example:
1st OA - New Jersey Devils (11.5%) = 11.5%/14 = 0.82% added to EACH REMAINING team
2nd OA - New York Rangers (7.5%) = 7.5%/13 = 0.58% added to EACH REMAINING team
3rd OA - Chicago Blackhawks (2.5%) = 2.5%/12 = 0.21% added to EACH REMAINING team
Colorado at the 2017 draft should have received a significant lottery % increase increase in their lottery odds than team behind them (Vancouver). There was a -21 total points differential between 1st and 2nd that year. Arizona and New Jersey in the same year (3rd and 4th worst teams) should have both had the same odds %, they had the same amount of points (70). But, Arizona had higher odds because ROW's. I am proposing that the lottery should be points-based, not based on the standings.
I think this would not only help the teams that do "tank", or in better words, do not have a good roster lineup, but also help out the rest of the non playoff teams have a shot at not just the top 3 picks, but increasing their odds of moving up in the draft.
There will never be a time where there's just winners in the draft. It's just the way it is. But, I think there is a solution with tweaking the draft just a tad more like I have proposed.
How would this work? Easy, once the lottery for the first pick is made, the percentages for each team for the next pick is changed with the allocation of the winning team's percentage divided by the number of teams that are left picking. To understand me better, let's use the 2019 draft as an example:
1st OA - New Jersey Devils (11.5%) = 11.5%/14 = 0.82% added to EACH REMAINING team
2nd OA - New York Rangers (7.5%) = 7.5%/13 = 0.58% added to EACH REMAINING team
3rd OA - Chicago Blackhawks (2.5%) = 2.5%/12 = 0.21% added to EACH REMAINING team
Colorado at the 2017 draft should have received a significant lottery % increase increase in their lottery odds than team behind them (Vancouver). There was a -21 total points differential between 1st and 2nd that year. Arizona and New Jersey in the same year (3rd and 4th worst teams) should have both had the same odds %, they had the same amount of points (70). But, Arizona had higher odds because ROW's. I am proposing that the lottery should be points-based, not based on the standings.
I think this would not only help the teams that do "tank", or in better words, do not have a good roster lineup, but also help out the rest of the non playoff teams have a shot at not just the top 3 picks, but increasing their odds of moving up in the draft.
There will never be a time where there's just winners in the draft. It's just the way it is. But, I think there is a solution with tweaking the draft just a tad more like I have proposed.
Negan4Coach
Fantastic and Stochastic
I mean, its certainly helped Carolina, who have missed the playoffs for ten years precisely because they NEVER tanked, not even after losing 17 straight in fall of 2009. They became mired in mediocrity until one day they won the lottery and BAM the next year wouldn't ya know they are in with Svechnikov providing some solid play. So I have to say yes, the lottery has had its intended effect I suppose.
And it has thwarted Edmonton for the past couple years from bogarting then squandering all the best players in the league, nevar forget.
And it has thwarted Edmonton for the past couple years from bogarting then squandering all the best players in the league, nevar forget.
