Is Pettersson a top 10 player in the NHL from now and going forward?

[Sidney the Kidney]

I think it does matter and is worth discussing. Nobody suggested a player is in a lower tier of hockey player only due to face-offs, but when we are talking about two players in the same tier or a player between two tiers, these smaller parts of the game can be a determining factor. They absolutely do matter.

But it just seems like one of those aspects that is more "cherry on top" rather than a key thing in a player's favor. Kind of like if you have two equal players, one guy adds a physical dimension the other doesn't have. Sure it's nice, but I don't think it really makes *that* much difference between the two.

As I've mentioned before, Crosby's ability to excel in so many of these smaller parts of the game is probably why he's separated himself in terms of legacy from players like Ovechkin and Malkin, who have a similar or greater amount of offensive talent.

But I don't think face off ability is one of those smaller parts of his game that separates him. The difference (in my mind) between Ovechkin and Crosby is Crosby's style tends to make other players around him better. As for Malkin, again, I don't think their proficiency in face offs is a factor at all. Consistency of effort is why Crosby is ahead of Malkin.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Imagine discrediting Pettersson for faceoffs. Literally faceoffs?????
LOLOLOL

Petterssons game is predicated on possession
And you might want to check who is 2nd in the entire league behind couturier in faceoff percentage. That’s right it’s JT Miller.

Also Vancouver is the only team in the league with 3 players in the top 10 in faceoff percentage

they have the best faceoff coach in the NHL Malhotra who has said he is working with Pettersson on faceoffs until they can get to a certain percentage.

The argument for Pettersson in the top 10 seems to be "it's not about points" so then you have to look at other aspects of his game. Why should I for example rank Pettersson ahead of Barkov?

I mean you’re right it’s a stupid argument but it’s your argument. You’re the one who decided faceoff win percentage was a good argument for why EP shouldn’t be a centre.

Also EP is a better defensive player than Malkin, so I’m curious why you think EP shouldn’t be a C. Kinda confusing to follow after you said it’s because hes not great at faceoffs but then say it doesn’t if Malkin isn’t great at faceoffs.

That's a misrepresentation, I didn't say faceoffs are the only factor. But when someone is the #5-6 faceoff guy on a team AND has a bad FOW% that impacts how I view their status as a centerman.
I also didn't say EP shouldn't be a C, I said he's not yet playing like a true centerman.

Again, if Pettersson scores 100+ points and wins scoring titles and MVP awards, who the F cares about any defensive play, if he's center or winger, faceoffs etc. But it matters if you are trying to paint the picture that a career high of 66 points lands someone in the top 10 of all players in the NHL. The difference between Malkin and Pettersson may not be their quality of faceoffs, but that doesn't mean they are equal because they both suck at them.

 

[nihlify]

Rookie season: 71gp 66pts
2nd season: 68gp. 66pts
Playoffs: 12gp 16pts

What more consistency would you like?

Also, notice how his ppg increases in the playoffs? Another indicator that the kid brings it when it matters.

I obviously mean consistency at a HIGHER level. He could have gotten 20 points each season and be considered consistent.

 

[Regal]

The argument for Pettersson in the top 10 seems to be "it's not about points" so then you have to look at other aspects of his game. Why should I for example rank Pettersson ahead of Barkov?


That's a misrepresentation, I didn't say faceoffs are the only factor. But when someone is the #5-6 faceoff guy on a team AND has a bad FOW% that impacts how I view their status as a centerman.
I also didn't say EP shouldn't be a C, I said he's not yet playing like a true centerman.

Again, if Pettersson scores 100+ points and wins scoring titles and MVP awards, who the F cares about any defensive play, if he's center or winger, faceoffs etc. But it matters if you are trying to paint the picture that a career high of 66 points lands someone in the top 10 of all players in the NHL. The difference between Malkin and Pettersson may not be their quality of faceoffs, but that doesn't mean they are equal because they both suck at them.

Pettersson has a greater impact on both his teams goals for and goals against, and Barkov isn't actually any more productive outside of one outlier season that he hasn't come close to replicating.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Pettersson has a greater impact on both his teams goals for and goals against, and Barkov isn't actually any more productive outside of one outlier season that he hasn't come close to replicating.

You can't dismiss a 96 point season as an outlier when we are comparing him to someone with a career high of 66 points.
I also question your notion that EP has a greater impact. You're likely talking in terms of possession metrics, but those are often influenced highly by what kind of situations and matchups you are tasked with. Just at a glance for example we can see that Pettersson is deployed for OZ-faceoffs at a much higher rate than Barkov. We can also see that Barkov is much stronger on faceoffs, penalty kills, and has been recognized in terms of Selke by being top 5 two years in a row. I strongly doubt there is many coaches that would go with EP over Barkov in a late game, protect a lead situation on a defensive zone faceoff. Given that Barkov has also been more productive, what is the argument for ranking EP higher?

 

[psycat]

Top 10 forward maybe.

 

[Regal]

You can't dismiss a 96 point season as an outlier when we are comparing him to someone with a career high of 66 points.
I also question your notion that EP has a greater impact. You're likely talking in terms of possession metrics, but those are often influenced highly by what kind of situations and matchups you are tasked with. Just at a glance for example we can see that Pettersson is deployed for OZ-faceoffs at a much higher rate than Barkov. We can also see that Barkov is much stronger on faceoffs, penalty kills, and has been recognized in terms of Selke by being top 5 two years in a row. I strongly doubt there is many coaches that would go with EP over Barkov in a late game, protect a lead situation on a defensive zone faceoff. Given that Barkov has also been more productive, what is the argument for ranking EP higher?

We can say it's an outlier because we know it's an outlier. Barkov has never hit more than 78 points in another season and has never been PPG in another season. Pettersson has been scoring since he entered the league at a very similar rate to what Barkov typically scores at. This is also with fewer minutes. Even if we include Barkov's outlier year and look at their production the past 2 seasons, Pettersson scores at a slightly higher G/60 (1.01 to 0.85) and P/60 (2.5 to 2.35) rate 5v5 and a slightly lower G/60 (2.09 to 2.34) and P/60 (5.97 to 5.21). This is with Barkov generally playing with better linemates, so no, he's really not more productive.

As for possession stats, we're talking about much better numbers in terms of GF%, xGF% and CF%. Deployment plays some role, but it's been shown that zone starts have little effect on these numbers and the difference is too big to be explained away by role. Barkov has the reputation of an elite defensive player, but the Panthers get worse defensively with him on the ice. Regression analytics take competition, linemates and situation into account and they paint Barkov as having a negative defensive impact and Pettersson having a positive one. The Selke votong is a joke and Barkov hasn't been good defensively for 3 seasons now. He's one of the most overrated players on this site

 

[Pavels Dog]

We can say it's an outlier because we know it's an outlier. Barkov has never hit more than 78 points in another season and has never been PPG in another season. Pettersson has been scoring since he entered the league at a very similar rate to what Barkov typically scores at. This is also with fewer minutes. Even if we include Barkov's outlier year and look at their production the past 2 seasons, Pettersson scores at a slightly higher G/60 (1.01 to 0.85) and P/60 (2.5 to 2.35) rate 5v5 and a slightly lower G/60 (2.09 to 2.34) and P/60 (5.97 to 5.21). This is with Barkov generally playing with better linemates, so no, he's really not more productive.

As for possession stats, we're talking about much better numbers in terms of GF%, xGF% and CF%. Deployment plays some role, but it's been shown that zone starts have little effect on these numbers and the difference is too big to be explained away by role. Barkov has the reputation of an elite defensive player, but the Panthers get worse defensively with him on the ice. Regression analytics take competition, linemates and situation into account and they paint Barkov as having a negative defensive impact and Pettersson having a positive one. The Selke votong is a joke and Barkov hasn't been good defensively for 3 seasons now. He's one of the most overrated players on this site

Just too much jumping through hoops and overvaluing advanced stats.

But it's interesting to see how someone can convince themselves that 78 points and 96 points is less productive than 66 points. Oh, and Selke isn't a joke just because they don't value individual corsi higher than how good players actually are at defending.