One down,one to go. With this being a strong draft year everything points to the Leafs finishing 9th in the East one point out of the playoffs.
is one year of tanking in our best interest long term?
- Thread starter LEAFANFORLIFE23
- Start date
-
Xenforo Cloud will be upgrading us to version 2.3.5 on March 3rd at 12 AM GMT. This version has increased stability and fixes several bugs. We expect downtime for the duration of the update. The admin team will continue to work on existing issues, templates and upgrade all necessary available addons to minimize impact of this new version. Click Here for Updates
One down,one to go. With this being a strong draft year everything points to the Leafs finishing 9th in the East one point out of the playoffs.
HellasLEAF
'93 to Infinity
- Sep 14, 2006
- 15,576
- 2,021
I've been saying this for months OP.
It's a no brainer to tank this season. No brainer. Then, change gears in the summer...
It's a no brainer to tank this season. No brainer. Then, change gears in the summer...
lol yes, the 1% or less chance past the 7th pick is really a reason not to tank.
Guys the lottery chances didnt change, it's just that the 14th pick has a 0.01%(approx) chance to get 1st instead of a 0.01% chance to move up 4 spots.
Noone has won the lottery past 8th pick anyway in the past what,10 lotteries?
Deep draft though, depending on how we start, I may go on the tank bandwagon fast, a top 5 pick could be huge with this draft.
HellasLEAF
'93 to Infinity
- Sep 14, 2006
- 15,576
- 2,021
http://www.thehockeynews.com/articles/48851-2013-NHL-draft-rankings.html
We should tank. There are excellent forwards near the top of the draft.
We should tank. There are excellent forwards near the top of the draft.
The Winter Soldier
Registered User
- Apr 4, 2011
- 71,030
- 21,383
Technically the 1st part of your post is true, realistically, the odds are much better for a team tanking to get the #1 pick.
lamp9post
Registered User
- Jan 28, 2007
- 4,464
- 1,795
It is not 1st overall pick or bust, there are great players in the top 7-8 this year. Even if the Leafs have the worst record and LOSE the lottery, they still draft 2nd and have the choice of whoever doesn't get picked between McKinnon/Jones and Barkov, Druin, etc.
edit: this is much better than poor Columbus, who lost the 1st pick and ended up with Ryan Murray. Not that he's a bad player, but he's not the franchise changing player that could be available this year in the top 5.
The Winter Soldier
Registered User
- Apr 4, 2011
- 71,030
- 21,383
I suspect It's going to be very hard for any scout or GM to pass on Jones this draft whether the need is for a centre or not, most teams pick the best player available.
Im not sure we can get THAT high in the draft.
top 5 is even pushing it a bit. No way are we worse than Columbus, or NYI. a few other teams are arguably worse as well(tampa if lindback fails, MTL, Anaheim, Edmonton have possibilities to do poorly.)
This is all saying that our goaltending fails, if Scrivens/Reimer come out hot, it's gonna be hard to tank later on.
The CyNick
Freedom of Speech!
- Sep 17, 2009
- 11,364
- 2,033
Tanking would be the best option in a short season.
I look at teams in three categories; teams that can realistically win the cup, teams that can barely make the playoffs (or miss), and teams that have a shot at the basement.
You want to be in the first category every year. The worst category is the middle one because if you make the playoffs, you are likely going out early, and if you miss, you wont be drafting elite talent to turn you into a cup contender. You get stuck in neutral forever.
The Leafs are probably on the edge between the 2nd and 3rd categories as the team stands right now. I've said this for years on here, but I dont see the elite talent at the key positions to turn this team into a cup contender. Every year people say its coming, and every year we go nowhere. At best, we will become a team that gets in 7th one year, and is 10th the next.
We need more elite talent. I dont see that coming through free agency, and through trade is very difficult. So the only option is the draft. I would argue we need another three years of drafting top 5 to put us where we need to be. Unfortunately thanks to Burke, I dont think the organization has the patience for that.
The other problem is that even if management agreed to a proper rebuild, there are a lot of terrible teams out there, that could be worse than the Leafs. So even tanking is not a perfect plan. Columbus was terrible last year, and they didn't even get Yakupov, and Yak may not even be the game changing talent needed to turn a franchise around.
I look at teams in three categories; teams that can realistically win the cup, teams that can barely make the playoffs (or miss), and teams that have a shot at the basement.
You want to be in the first category every year. The worst category is the middle one because if you make the playoffs, you are likely going out early, and if you miss, you wont be drafting elite talent to turn you into a cup contender. You get stuck in neutral forever.
The Leafs are probably on the edge between the 2nd and 3rd categories as the team stands right now. I've said this for years on here, but I dont see the elite talent at the key positions to turn this team into a cup contender. Every year people say its coming, and every year we go nowhere. At best, we will become a team that gets in 7th one year, and is 10th the next.
We need more elite talent. I dont see that coming through free agency, and through trade is very difficult. So the only option is the draft. I would argue we need another three years of drafting top 5 to put us where we need to be. Unfortunately thanks to Burke, I dont think the organization has the patience for that.
The other problem is that even if management agreed to a proper rebuild, there are a lot of terrible teams out there, that could be worse than the Leafs. So even tanking is not a perfect plan. Columbus was terrible last year, and they didn't even get Yakupov, and Yak may not even be the game changing talent needed to turn a franchise around.
The Winter Soldier
Registered User
- Apr 4, 2011
- 71,030
- 21,383
Columbus is the team to beat out for the 1st pick.
EDM has a very promising line up with Schultz, he has been lights out in the minors.
Montreal has Price and some upgrades, I think they will be better also.
TB has a better goalie, ANA still better than us if they keep Getzlaf, Perry and Ryan.
Really it looks like us and COL, if Murray didn't get hurt, I would say it is head and head, but who knows in a 48 game season.
Tak7
Registered User
Serious question - how do people judge how "deep" a draft is, before a single player plays a single minute in the NHL?
Never figured that one out.
But yeah - there are some promising forwards in that group, and it would be great if we could add one of those to the group.
Hopefully it's as clear-cut as making the playoffs, or bottoming out, but it's never that easy is it. I think this team will finish just out of the playoffs. Who knows what you get at that point in the draft.
Never figured that one out.
But yeah - there are some promising forwards in that group, and it would be great if we could add one of those to the group.
Hopefully it's as clear-cut as making the playoffs, or bottoming out, but it's never that easy is it. I think this team will finish just out of the playoffs. Who knows what you get at that point in the draft.
The CyNick
Freedom of Speech!
- Sep 17, 2009
- 11,364
- 2,033
People who watch Jr hockey and know the guys available would be able to provide an educated opinion as to how deep a draft is.
People knew guys like Crosby, Malkin, Stamkos, and Ovi would not only make the NHL, but they would be studs. Those projections ended up being correct. Are there some cases where projections are completely wrong? Of course. But for the most part, the projections are accurate.
Bomber0104
Registered User
What bugs me is TSN's comparables.
We've had like 5 Steve Yzerman clones in the past 5 years.
The CyNick
Freedom of Speech!
- Sep 17, 2009
- 11,364
- 2,033
Pyrophorus
Registered User
613Leafer
Registered User
- May 26, 2008
- 13,031
- 3,979
Considering if we finish say ~4th last, we'd have a 10.7% chance of picking 1st overall, an 58% chance of picking 4th overall, and a 31.3% chance of picking 5th overall...
vs
Say we finish ~10th last, we'd have a 2.1% chance of picking 1st overall, a 3.9% chance of picking 11th overall, and a 94% chance of picking 10th overall... I like the odds in the 1st scenario MUCH better.
The highest team to EVER win the draft lottery was the team that finished 23rd overall (8th overall pick).
Tanking just isn't an option, and even if it were, you'd never notice (Unless Boyd Devereaux ends up on the roster).
In every draft there are 2-3 can't miss players, than there are a bunch of very strong prospects. Many of these prospects quickly turn into can't miss players. That's the beauty of predicting a career of a 17 year old...It's unpredictable. Would drafting MacKinnon be great? Yeah, of course it would, but in the Leafs case they have to start to climb the standings...for the players, fans, and managements sake.
I watched the prospect game last night and was very impressed with Adam Erne. Reseaching him I've learnt he's playing with Grigorenko and is leading the team in scoring (albiet with more games than Grigorenko). My point is this kid is ranked 13th in NA right now, which would likely have him drafted 15th or lower. Heck even Grigorenko is a good example of why there's no reason to tank as he went 12th to the Sabres.
Al the Leafs need is a bit of luck, to keep their 1st's (See mid 2000's), and they need to draft BPA (best player available), things they haven't had in the past.
This team needs something to build on now...that is a playoff appearance IMO.
In every draft there are 2-3 can't miss players, than there are a bunch of very strong prospects. Many of these prospects quickly turn into can't miss players. That's the beauty of predicting a career of a 17 year old...It's unpredictable. Would drafting MacKinnon be great? Yeah, of course it would, but in the Leafs case they have to start to climb the standings...for the players, fans, and managements sake.
I watched the prospect game last night and was very impressed with Adam Erne. Reseaching him I've learnt he's playing with Grigorenko and is leading the team in scoring (albiet with more games than Grigorenko). My point is this kid is ranked 13th in NA right now, which would likely have him drafted 15th or lower. Heck even Grigorenko is a good example of why there's no reason to tank as he went 12th to the Sabres.
Al the Leafs need is a bit of luck, to keep their 1st's (See mid 2000's), and they need to draft BPA (best player available), things they haven't had in the past.
This team needs something to build on now...that is a playoff appearance IMO.
well with the lombardi trade, connolly being waived looks like Nonis is going full on rebuild which is good to see
