Is Nathan MacKinnon Better Than Prime Yzerman?

[tabness]

f*** the nostoliga its Mackinnon


No way Yzerman was 3rd in mid 80s to mid 90s period

Ray Bourque was a better player at that time as well, as was Messier

He was 5th at best

I'm too blinded by nostalgia to even seriously consider this question with Nate MacKinnon lol but yeah I'm not sure why there is this absolute denying of Yzerman's position vis a vis Gretzky and Lemieux during the time, the media culture and record is absolutely replete with this stuff lol

also quoting myself from before:

It was pretty obviously Gretzky • Lemieux • Yzerman and then the rest during and after 1988-1989.

After that it was more of the same for a bit. The Hockey News yearbooks didn't have the player rankings back then, but in the team pages, after 1989-1990, they called Yzerman the third best player again and after 1990-1991 they called him the third best center behind Gretzky and Lemieux (since I guess Hull had his 86 goal year).

The Hockey Scouting Report 1990-91 (after the 1989-1990 season) said they wouldn't argue much against the idea that Yzerman was the league's best player (to contrast, Bourque's entry stated he was among the top five players in the world).

More of the same stuff in things like Superstar Hockey, the Hockey Digest yearbooks, and so on.

Yzerman didn't have a shot at the Hart trophy or whatever in 1989-1990 given how poorly the Red Wings played, but that may have been his most impressive season given that Paul Maclean was replaced on his right with Joey Kocur of all people lol (career year for Kocur though)

 

[MadLuke]

Wouldn't Yzerman's HR page at a glance look similar if 99 and 66 didn't exist? It'd be littered with...stuff...no?

Hart/Pearson can hard to judge, perception can become quite differnet if you are the best offensive player in an era versus not.

Art Ross-Hart wise, a single one if it play exactly the same.

 

[K Fleur]

Wouldn't Yzerman's HR page at a glance look similar if 99 and 66 didn't exist? It'd be littered with...stuff...no?

Not that Mac didn't go against anyone. But 99 and 66 were a different level of gatekeepers at his position...

It would have more “stuff” but not as much as some people think.

I think Yzerman’s 88-89 is one of the most overrated seasons of all time. Not because of his play(which was incredible) but because that season spawned a false kinda strong narrative among some fans that Yzerman would have been winning the Art Ross every year if not for Gretzky/Mario.

 

[JackSlater]

I've compared them a few times as I think they are on a similar level with similar statures within hockey of their times. Yzerman reached an elite level earlier and I think he's a bit better at his best. Yzerman was smarter and had more variety, MacKinnon is better physically. We'll see how MacKinnon ages. I ended up voting about equal.

 

[The Panther]

Both were drafted young (18) and then played their entire rookie seasons at age 18, which is rare. Both did well as rookies. I'd probably call their rookie seasons about even.

Over the span of the first four seasons of each, Yzerman takes the clear edge, mainly because his 2nd year was also really good (MacKinnon's was a bit disappointing) and because he started hitting his prime in year four (1986-87, 90 points, 12th in scoring), which MacKinnon didn't (2016-17, 53 points, 72nd in scoring).

In year five, MacKinnon's surges up to 'super-elite' status and he's been there ever since. Yzerman did the same in year five, pacing for 63 goals and 128 points (but he was stopped after 50 goals by a serious late-season injury). Yzerman then took the scoring up to an even higher 'super-elite' level in year six with his 155 points (highest total EVER by non-Gretzky / Lemieux). (In fact, in that one season, he was matching Lemieux / Gretzky in ES scoring.) Yzerman more or less maintained the elite-level scoring between 1987-88 and 1993-94, with a degree of injury in the first and last of those limiting his totals.

Injuries have more notably limited MacKinnon's totals, but certainly since 2017-18 he has been elite every year, with amazing scoring totals. It's also impressive that (what is seemingly) his peak offensive season just occurred in year 11. That's quite rare.

So, that's where each player sat/sits after 11 NHL seasons. (I'm suggesting it's really only fair to compare with Yzerman in 1994, when he was at the same place as MacKinnon now.) Up to 1994, even though Yzerman was respected as a great captain, there was starting to be a suspicion that he couldn't win it all in the playoffs (later proven wrong), whereas of course MacKinnon won it all at age 26, so if there were any doubt he removed it a bit earlier.

So, up to age 28 and each guy's 11th season, I would give a very slight edge to MacKinnon. But it's a hair's breadth between them. And of course MacKinnon had a Cup by season 11, which Yzerman didn't.

___________________

As to how their careers go after season 11, we can only speculate for MacKinnon. Yzerman passed his scoring prime after that very season, but he continued to be a strong offensive producer for about six more seasons (taking him to age 34), which was really impressive. Even better, he had those three Cups and at least two legendary playoff performances in '98 and '02.

If next season (and the next few) were to show that MacKinnon's scoring peak is over (and he drops to, say, 9th in League scoring for a couple years before declining) and if the Avalanche never win the Cup again, then I'd have to guess the pendulum of comparison would then start to swing in Yzerman's favor. (After all, Yzerman was an out-of-nowhere 1st team All Star -- for the one and only time in his career -- at the age of 34!)

Despite coming in on a pretty bad team (one of the worst of all time in 1985-86), Yzerman actually had a very fortunate career in terms of his team's building around him. By his year four, his club was at least competitive, and they were strong in year five. Then then dipped for just a couple of years, but then suddenly Lidstrom, Fedorov, etc. start arriving. And just at the moment when Yzerman's scoring peak ended, his team surged to the top of the NHL around him (finishing 1st overall the very season Yzerman's was first past his offensive peak). So, in a way, he had one of those "charmed careers" where his team's success around his aging body kind of made him look a bit better than he really was in his latter years (a lot of players have the opposite -- for example, Howe and Gretzky).

Anyway, I'd say MacKinnon for now (after season 11), but the jury's out after this point. Yzerman still may win the race when MacKinnon's career is over. Depends on how things pan out.

 

[seventieslord]

Eh. Sakic aged better than Yzerman imo.

Yzerman had 1 season finishing top 10 in points 30+. Sakic had 5 seasons finishing top 10 in points including runner up to the Art Ross twice. All after 30.

Yzerman does have the better selke record post 30 but not like Sakic's was bad. Sakic however, was on a different level offensively comparing their post 30 careers.

so I don't agree with if Mackinnon ages like Yzerman he passes both.


As for the OP. Mackinnon's offensive prime is already on the level of Sakic's. Another interesting comp would be to compare Mackinnon's 2023-24 season to Yzerman's 1988-89 season.

I prefer Sakic to Yzerman quite handily myself. Sorry for any confusion in the way I worded it. I'm saying that if he ages well, as in doesn't fall off a cliff, his prime is good enough that he'll pass Yzerman, and it's even good enough to pass Sakic

 

[Peter Tosh]

SY would probably have a couple of Harts if Mario and Wayne wasn’t in his era. Scoring 150, for a bad team, and not getting the Hart says something about the competition

 

[VanIslander]

Forsberg > Sakic in terms of skills not production.

Let's get that clear.

Passing, positioning, strength on the puck, the forecheck, backchecking relentlessly, puck handling like Niewy in a phone booth.

Yet,... Joe's wrist shot is all-time great. He can be best described as a silent assassin. His short pivoting style of skating and his hands get the job done. Juke & release. Rinse & repeat.

Yet, ... if you haven't seen him live or this vid 7 times,... you haven't lived!



This is hockey. In every way.

 

[VanIslander]

I should have mic dropped last post.

ONLY go here if that linked juiced you up a fraction of us who luckily were there (live on a thing called TV and locally when the alternative was a thing called a "blackout" fthat!



You don't regret watching this. This is hockey as it used to be before Bettman & co. sanitized it.

No way Howe, Shore, Clarke, Messier. .... could do what they did well. Pronger, Hasek, Forsberg... all-time greats who did NOT CLEARLY play by today's rules. They'd still kick *** and take names. But they'd have to pivot. Which they all could do.

Hockey is the greatest sport and its history will never die.

The Stanley Cup epitomizes it all. Durable, assaulted, vaulted, enduring, wanted, an epic reward to handle ... over a century of valor!

 

[VanIslander]

The Force.

 

[VanIslander]

Gretzky was asked who was the next superstar when he retired (the room full of Lindros & Kariya yeasayers)... and he went Forsberg.

I was not at all surprised.

 

[bobholly39]

It's close, which isn't something I thought I'd say 3 years ago. Very impressive.

I voted no for now, but I'm open to changing my vote/re-assess when his prime is over.

 

[JackSlater]

Well now that Forsberg has been covered in a series of banal posts having nothing to do with Yzerman or MacKinnon, I anxiously await the arrival of Hasek.

I think that an issue for Yzerman, likely not in this specific thread, is that people forget his explosive MacKinnon era and just talk about and mythologize his grizzled leader era. I have heard people describe Yzerman as a sluggish skater and grindy offensive player even when at his prime, which is obviously not close to accurate. People love the archetypical legend of Yzerman giving up his flashy offence in order to win, but they sort of neglect to consider how great he was before he "gave up" (got hobbled by injuries) that style.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Four top-three finishes (one being the winner) in Hart voting within a seven-year window is pretty crazy. Aside from the greats, how many can compete with that?

Quoting myself from another recent thread:

Nathan MacKinnon is now one of only 17 players in NHL history who's been a Hart trophy finalist 4+ times in the span of 7 seasons (descending order):

1. Bobby Orr (7 times in 7 seasons - 1969 to 1975)
2. Wayne Gretzky (7 times in 7 seasons - multiple, but latest was 1983 to 1989)
3. Gordie Howe (6 times in 7 seasons - multiple, but latest was 1960 to 1966)
4. Bobby Hull (6 times in 7 seasons - 1962 to 1968)
5. Phil Esposito (5 times in 6 seasons - 1969 to 1974)
6. Jaromir Jagr (5 times in 7 seasons - 1995 to 2001)
7. Sidney Crosby (5 times in 7 seasons - 2013 to 2019)
8. Connor McDavid (5 times in 7 seasons - multiple, but latest was 2018 to 2024)
9. Dominik Hasek (5 times in 6 seasons - 1994 to 1999)
10. Guy Lafleur (4 times in 4 seasons - 1976 to 1979)
11. Bobby Clarke (4 times in 5 seasons - 1973 to 1977)
12. Eddie Shore (4 times in 6 seasons - 1933 to 1938)
13. Maurice Richard (4 times in 6 seasons - 1950 to 1955)
14. Jean Beliveau (4 times in 6 seasons - 1964 to 1969)
15. Alexander Ovechkin (4 times in 6 seasons - 2008 to 2013)
16. Bryan Trottier (4 times in 7 seasons - 1978 to 1984)
17. Nathan MacKinnon (4 times in 7 seasons - 2018 to 2024)

In case anyone is wondering - Mario Lemieux was a Hart finalist 4 times in 5 seasons that he played in (1993 to 2001). But that covers 9 NHL seasons.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

Quoting myself from another recent thread:

Nathan MacKinnon is now one of only 17 players in NHL history who's been a Hart trophy finalist 4+ times in the span of 7 seasons (descending order):

1. Bobby Orr (7 times in 7 seasons - 1969 to 1975)
2. Wayne Gretzky (7 times in 7 seasons - multiple, but latest was 1983 to 1989)
3. Gordie Howe (6 times in 7 seasons - multiple, but latest was 1960 to 1966)
4. Bobby Hull (6 times in 7 seasons - 1962 to 1968)
5. Phil Esposito (5 times in 6 seasons - 1969 to 1974)
6. Jaromir Jagr (5 times in 7 seasons - 1995 to 2001)
7. Sidney Crosby (5 times in 7 seasons - 2013 to 2019)
8. Connor McDavid (5 times in 7 seasons - multiple, but latest was 2018 to 2024)
9. Dominik Hasek (5 times in 6 seasons - 1994 to 1999)
10. Guy Lafleur (4 times in 4 seasons - 1976 to 1979)
11. Bobby Clarke (4 times in 5 seasons - 1973 to 1977)
12. Eddie Shore (4 times in 6 seasons - 1933 to 1938)
13. Maurice Richard (4 times in 6 seasons - 1950 to 1955)
14. Jean Beliveau (4 times in 6 seasons - 1964 to 1969)
15. Alexander Ovechkin (4 times in 6 seasons - 2008 to 2013)
16. Bryan Trottier (4 times in 7 seasons - 1978 to 1984)
17. Nathan MacKinnon (4 times in 7 seasons - 2018 to 2024)

In case anyone is wondering - Mario Lemieux was a Hart finalist 4 times in 5 seasons that he played in (1993 to 2001). But that covers 9 NHL seasons.

Only goalie, Hasek.

Only defensemen, Shore & Orr.

 

[Midnight Judges]

*I excluded Lemieux, Gretzky and '21 and '23 McDavid

Why?

 

[Midnight Judges]

99 and 66 should be doctored out of any discussion of their peers... they define OUTLIER!

That's just history revision.

Even if you think it's unfair to factor in their per-game averages to show weakness in the players who played at the same time, completely eliminating them from existence is not necessary.

 

[MadLuke]

SY would probably have a couple of Harts if Mario and Wayne wasn’t in his era. Scoring 150, for a bad team, and not getting the Hart says something about the competition

It is hard to predict how voters goes in parallel universe (or what those Oilers become and Messier), but Yzerman was a hart finalist once.

Is only other Top-5 finish was, 1988:

Place	Player	Age	Tm	Pos	Votes	Vote%	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	G	A	PTS	+/-	W	L	T/O	GAA	SV%	OPS	DPS	GPS	PS
1	Mario Lemieux	22	PIT	C	292	92.70	54	7	1			70	98	168	23						14.7	1.5	0.0	16.2
2	Grant Fuhr	25	EDM	G	106	33.65	4	25	11			0	8	8		40	24	9	3.43	.881	0.0	0.0	11.3	11.3
3	Wayne Gretzky	27	EDM	C	73	23.17	2	15	18			40	109	149	39						11.3	1.6	0.0	12.8
4	Steve Yzerman	22	DET	C	64	20.32	3	11	16			50	52	102	30						8.9	1.5	0.0	10.4

Maybe ? But playing only 64 games would make it hard.

But without Lemieux-Gretzky, Art Ross winner Savard would have more votes, he would have won, but couple ?

 

[MadLuke]

Even if you think it's unfair to factor in their per-game averages to show weakness in the players who played at the same time, completely eliminating them from existence is not necessary.

And it depend when post 1991 Gretzky does not need to be removed, pre 1988, post first retirement Mario... if you also remove McDavid.. but that could be a sign that it is not a particularly good way to look at it, the yearly finish, one thing an Yzerman has going for him was the prime in which he deliver every year, season after season, look at the top 10 of each individual year can remove that from him.

One way to look at it, 22-28 years old Yzerman (88-94):

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

Player	GP	G	A	P	+/-	P/GP
Mario Lemieux	384​	349​	514​	863​	134​	2.25​
Wayne Gretzky	493​	260​	678​	938​	61​	1.9​
Steve Yzerman	524​	355​	459​	814​	109​	1.55​
Adam Oates	514​	175​	527​	702​	55​	1.37​
Pat LaFontaine	460​	291​	338​	629​	2​	1.37​
Mark Messier	511​	213​	467​	680​	100​	1.33​
Brett Hull	535​	412​	287​	699​	-13​	1.31​
Luc Robitaille	561​	347​	372​	719​	26​	1.28​
Doug Gilmour	544​	191​	477​	668​	161​	1.23​
Mark Recchi	415​	207​	302​	509​	-18​	1.23​

Player	GP	G	A	P
Wayne Gretzky	493​	260​	678​	938​
Mario Lemieux	384​	349​	514​	863​
Steve Yzerman	524​	355​	459​	814​
Luc Robitaille	561​	347​	372​	719​
Adam Oates	514​	175​	527​	702​
Brett Hull	535​	412​	287​	699​
Mark Messier	511​	213​	467​	680​
Doug Gilmour	544​	191​	477​	668​
Dale Hawerchuk	553​	216​	451​	667​
Pierre Turgeon	543​	256​	380​	636​

2018-2024 Mack (22-28 years old)

Player	GP	G	A	P	+/-	P/GP
Connor McDavid	518​	289​	545​	834​	123​	1.61​
Leon Draisaitl	528​	297​	416​	713​	67​	1.35​
Nathan MacKinnon	491​	260​	433​	693​	152​	1.41​
Nikita Kucherov	440​	212​	427​	639​	72​	1.45​
Artemi Panarin	510​	204​	426​	630​	130​	1.24​
David Pastrnak	502​	289​	315​	604​	115​	1.2​
Auston Matthews	480​	328​	252​	580​	138​	1.21​
Mikko Rantanen	486​	242​	337​	579​	110​	1.19​
Mitch Marner	499​	175​	403​	578​	110​	1.16​
Sidney Crosby	490​	210​	359​	569​	52​	1.16​

Connor McDavid	518​	289​	545​	834​	123​	1.61​
Nikita Kucherov	440​	212​	427​	639​	72​	1.45​
Nathan MacKinnon	491​	260​	433​	693​	152​	1.41​
Leon Draisaitl	528​	297​	416​	713​	67​	1.35​
Artemi Panarin	510​	204​	426​	630​	130​	1.24​
Auston Matthews	480​	328​	252​	580​	138​	1.21​
David Pastrnak	502​	289​	315​	604​	115​	1.2​
Mikko Rantanen	486​	242​	337​	579​	110​	1.19​
Mitch Marner	499​	175​	403​	578​	110​	1.16​
Sidney Crosby	490​	210​	359​	569​	52​	1.16​

Steve Yzerman 1.55 ppg for that era was 19% higher than the 4-10 players, Mack 1.41 was 16%

Mack has 104 points in 81 playoff games during that stretch, has clearly one of the top playoff performer of that era and cup winner, only Mc-Drai have a better ppg, .yzerman only had the chance to play in 37 playoffs games (39 pts), the gap in team for most of those stretch making it hard to compare, but Mackinnon did, while Yzerman is only a maybe would, that was not team canada 1987 and 1991 probably for that reason. No way they leave Mackinnon home, well Keenan was picular enough that who knows.

They are close as it get imo, prime wise as of now, maybe MacKinnon peak will be longer he just arguably had his best season of his career, Yzerman was leaving his peak at this very moment of his career but aged wonderfully.

 

[Neutrinos]

I posted this on March 9th of this year...

It should be acknowledged that MacKinnon has put up prime Crosby-esque numbers for 7 straight seasons...

Regular Season

MacKinnon (2018 - '24)
249 goals, 664 points, +142 in 474 games

Crosby (2007 - '14)
235 goals, 667 points, +125 in 469 games


Playoffs

MacKinnon (career)
44 goals, 100 points, +34 in 77 games

Crosby (2008 - '13)
37 goals, 100 points, +16 in 77 games


I think when it's all said and done, Crosby vs MacKinnon may be this generation's Yzerman vs Sakic

 

[MadLuke]

2018 - '24)

18-24 and 07-14 scoring are quite different (even if they are close in time around 2017 it seem like a big shift occur).

Average goals scored per games
07-14: 2.746
18-24: 3.025

10% jump in scoring, to be in the top 10 in ppg (250+games) in the 07-14, you needeed 1.01 ppg, in the 18-24 it was up to 1.16

 

[DitchMarner]

Why?

Mostly because it's customary to do so here.

Some would suggest it's not fair that certain players had to go against prime Gretzky and Lemieux, suggesting no great offensive player who's existed since expansion would stand a chance at outscoring them in a healthy prime season.

The strength of the top scorers fluctuates from season to season. Beating 2015 John Tavares for an Art Ross isn't as impressive as beating 150 point Bernie Nicholls in scoring even if that only achieves a third-place scoring finish.

There are other things you can look at as well (like adjusted scoring). But if you are going to focus on how a player performs relative to the top scorers, I think you have to be fair. Either you remove all veritable outliers or none at all. That's why I removed McDavid's 2021 and 2023 as well. It's not about the names; it is about the concept of an invincible outlier (or two) present in a particular season.

 

[tabness]

Forsberg > Sakic in terms of skills not production.

Let's get that clear.

Passing, positioning, strength on the puck, the forecheck, backchecking relentlessly, puck handling like Niewy in a phone booth.

Yet,... Joe's wrist shot is all-time great. He can be best described as a silent assassin. His short pivoting style of skating and his hands get the job done. Juke & release. Rinse & repeat.

Yet, ... if you haven't seen him live or this vid 7 times,... you haven't lived!



This is hockey. In every way.

Forsberg is a much more suitable comparison, another guy from a meat and potatoes time. Different cohort but immediately succeeding the Yzerman one.

Also my brother was a huge Avs/Forsberg fan (we were in Detroit so I wasn't the weird one lol) so we had all sorts of Yzerman/Fedorov vs Forsberg arguments if you can call them that since they were mostly just chirping the other guy/team

Would usually end it though with the Gretzky/Lemieux/Yzerman thing, he himself knew it wasn't the same in the dead puck era.

 

[MadLuke]

it is about the concept of an invincible outlier (or two) present in a particular season.

Which is fine (if complicated), but was 1990 Gretzky playing 73 games or 1994 Greztky, invincible outlier or just regular really good Art Ross winner, like a Malkin/Kane/Jagr/Mack/Kucherov in a big year are?

Take 1992 when this method give 2 spots to Yzerman, was post 30 Gretzky scoring 121 points with the Kings something special to take into account, Lemieux playing only 64 games with all those health issues ? 131 pts in that era was obviously good, but a Denis Savard, Yzerma, Lafontaine, Oates, Stastny, Bossy, Messier, Hull, Oates or Fedorov in a peak year on a good team could have won the Ross that year.

There is 160pts+ Gretzky-Lemieux that an argument could be made no one can beat (except each other) or at least you can be excused for not doing so, but they also won Art Ross while missing a lot of games or out of their primes, when it was possible to beat them, 1997 Lemieux was not invincible anymore.. same for 1994 Gretzky.

 

[Neutrinos]

Forsberg is a much more suitable comparison, another guy from a meat and potatoes time. Different cohort but immediately succeeding the Yzerman one.

Also my brother was a huge Avs/Forsberg fan (we were in Detroit so I wasn't the weird one lol) so we had all sorts of Yzerman/Fedorov vs Forsberg arguments if you can call them that since they were mostly just chirping the other guy/team

Would usually end it though with the Gretzky/Lemieux/Yzerman thing, he himself knew it wasn't the same in the dead puck era.

Forsberg is the answer to the question: What if Lindros and Crosby had a son together?