Is mcdavid too good not to win a cup? | Page 26 | HFBoards - NHL Message Board and Forum for National Hockey League

Is mcdavid too good not to win a cup?

20 years from now, people will point out the everlasting effect of the Oilers not having a true #1 goalie during the early prime years of McDrai (2019-2023). Replace Campbell or Skinner with any elite goaltender and that's arguably 2-3 cups in a row.

Imagine if they had a Roy for their Sakic and Forsberg.

Just disgraceful
 
So if McDavid puts up a lower PPG, say 30 points in 23 games, but steps up when his team needs him, you’d say he’d have a better playoffs than he did in 2024?

I'll let you know when if it happens. We can only assess what has actually occured.

Where do we draw the line when it comes to point totals?. McDavid’s higher PPG in losses indicates how he pushes his level to new heights in order to compete when his team as a whole is playing worse.

It's easier to score when the other team is protecting the lead and you have nothing to lose.

Let's leave it at this. If you want to play a run and gun style or you need a player to try to erase a 2 goal deficit in the 3rd, McDavid's your guy. If you want to have the best chance of your team not being down 2 goals in the 3rd, you take Crosby because he is just as productive as McDavid but is more versatile offensively and the better all around player.

Crosby was more proven to be able to produce regardless of the quality of his linemates which created team depth and allowed them to play a less aggressive style offensively. If Crosby spent as much time with Malkin as McDavid and Draisaitl, I am sure his PPG would have been higher but who knows if that lowers their chances for a Cup.

The best guess is that the coaches figured it was better to separate them, and keep them separate. Can you argue with the results?
 
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I'll let you know when if it happens. We can only assess what has actually occured.



Let's leave it at this. If you want to play a run and gun style or you need a player to try to erase a 2 goal deficit in the 3rd, McDavid's your guy. If you want to have the best chance of your team not being down 2 goals in the 3rd, you take Crosby because he is just as productive as McDavid but is more versatile offensively and the better all around player.
The Oilers under Knoblach are anything but a run and gun style team. And yet they came within a goal of winning last year and are the first team in the conference finals this year with McDavid.
 
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20 years from now, people will point out the everlasting effect of the Oilers not having a true #1 goalie during the early prime years of McDrai (2019-2023). Replace Campbell or Skinner with any elite goaltender and that's arguably 2-3 cups in a row.

Imagine if they had a Roy for their Sakic and Forsberg.

Just disgraceful

Cap issues. Teams cannot load up like they used to.
 
The Oilers under Knoblach are anything but a run and gun style team. And yet they came within a goal of winning last year and are the first team in the conference finals this year with McDavid.

When McDavid and Draisaitl are teamed up, there is a lot of pressure for them to produce. They were teamed up to start this year's playoffs and were last year through two rounds. Full marks to McDavid for producing in the WCF; I have said that is his best playoff series of his career. Half marks for not producing in the SCF until it was too late and for not producing in Game 7.
 
When McDavid and Draisaitl are teamed up, there is a lot of pressure for them to produce. They were teamed up to start this year's playoffs and were last year through two rounds. Full marks to McDavid for producing in the WCF; I have said that is his best playoff series of his career. Half marks for not producing in the SCF until it was too late and for not producing in Game 7.
What does any of this have to do with a run and gun style. For someone who spends an inordinate amount fo time criticizing McDavid/Draisaitl it seems evident that you really have very little knowledge of what they actually do for the team.
 
What does any of this have to do with a run and gun style. For someone who spends an inordinate amount fo time criticizing McDavid/Draisaitl it seems evident that you really have very little knowledge of what they actually do for the team.

The discussion was about McDavid putting up big point totals in series, most notably in 2022 when, without a doubt, the Oilers were trying to run and gun their way to a Cup. Their team GA was by far the worst for a conference finalist in the past 30 years.

Pointing out that Crosby was able to win a Cup on a team that had a worse supporting cast than McDavid's team in any of the last four seasons isn't a critique. Talk of superior teammates, d-men, goaltending etc. has been debunked many times over.

He is a proven winner many times over. McDavid has done enough to not lose any points legacy-wise but he doesn't gain any like Crosby.
 
If you want to play a run and gun style or you need a player to try to erase a 2 goal deficit in the 3rd, McDavid's your guy. If you want to have the best chance of your team not being down 2 goals in the 3rd, you take Crosby because he is just as productive as McDavid but is more versatile
You could well be right, but this analysis falls short in the SCF last year. 97 was 2 goals against all series, so the Oilers being down 2 or three in the third was on the Goaltending and losing the depth battle. McDavid couldn’t have played better defensively, so we can put away the ‘he could’ve been more versatile defensively’ for this series atleast. We don’t know how the first few games go with a healthy Draisaitl, just like Malkin was fully healthy in 2009. Maybe he carries his own line, who knows.
Crosby was more proven to be able to produce regardless of the quality of his linemates
It depends what’s the definition of production. His 0.8 in 2016 was a good number overall, but not compared to his standard. Yes he shut down loaded lines and full credit to that, but strictly speaking for on-ice prefomance, 0.8 for 1C is subpar production. He provided far greater intrinsic value by playing with plugs, so I’m not criticizing it. Here’s the problem for me, I don’t know how much of HBK’s success is on Crosby making sacrifices, and how much is on each member of that line overplaying their ability and usual stat line massively. It’s a combination of both. Everyone would use that formula if it garanteed a Kessel type player to play that great without a star center on his side, but there is no guarantee.

It’s not a matter of McDavid can’t produce with plugs for me, it’s taking that risk betting on McDavid’s usual wingers to produce like HBK did on the third line.


Their team GA was by far the worst for a conference finalist in the past 30 years.
A big reason for this was Oil starting a 40 year old Mike Smith, who had let in some absolute head scratchers, especially in that Calgary series. If you look at the goals conceded, it’s fair to say the majority of the goals conceded were a result of bad goaltending and/or individual mistakes, atleast in the Calgary series. Some were a result of a run and gun playstyle, just not the majority.

Just look at some of the goals conceded here. The 135 foot slapper is just a cherry on top.

Link all Calgary goals

 
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The discussion was about McDavid putting up big point totals in series, most notably in 2022 when, without a doubt, the Oilers were trying to run and gun their way to a Cup. Their team GA was by far the worst for a conference finalist in the past 30 years.

Pointing out that Crosby was able to win a Cup on a team that had a worse supporting cast than McDavid's team in any of the last four seasons isn't a critique. Talk of superior teammates, d-men, goaltending etc. has been debunked many times over.

He is a proven winner many times over. McDavid has done enough to not lose any points legacy-wise but he doesn't gain any like Crosby.
I am not sure how many times you need to be told. Individuals do not win cups, teams do. And you seem to be the only one who feels that the bolded is true. That 2022 team had one guy on it who was legitimately capable of playing in the top 2 on defense and he was completely crippled by injury. Draisaitl was also playing with a severe high ankle strain that prevented him from playing center. There goalie was playing with injuries that ended his career. No Pittsburgh cup winner had less depth than that 2022 team and its not even close.
 
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I'll let you know when if it happens. We can only assess what has actually occured.



It's easier to score when the other team is protecting the lead and you have nothing to lose.

Let's leave it at this. If you want to play a run and gun style or you need a player to try to erase a 2 goal deficit in the 3rd, McDavid's your guy. If you want to have the best chance of your team not being down 2 goals in the 3rd, you take Crosby because he is just as productive as McDavid but is more versatile offensively and the better all around player.

Crosby was more proven to be able to produce regardless of the quality of his linemates which created team depth and allowed them to play a less aggressive style offensively. If Crosby spent as much time with Malkin as McDavid and Draisaitl, I am sure his PPG would have been higher but who knows if that lowers their chances for a Cup.

The best guess is that the coaches figured it was better to separate them, and keep them separate. Can you argue with the results?
Stop embarrassing yourself man.

This is not an analysis. Its an opinion, however preposterous it may seem.
 
I am not sure how many times you need to be told. Individuals do not win cups, teams do. And you seem to be the only one who feels that the bolded is true. That 2022 team had one guy on it who was legitimately capable of playing in the top 2 on defense and he was completely crippled by injury. Draisaitl was also playing with a severe high ankle strain that prevented him from playing center. There goalie was playing with injuries that ended his career. No Pittsburgh cup winner had less depth than that 2022 team and its not even close.

I am not sure how many times you need to be told, Crosby created depth on his championship teams by being able to play effectively with any level of linemates that help execute their team strategy.

Also, McDavid and Draisaitl play a lot at ES in the playoffs when both are healthy including this season.

Also, in 2022, in 16 games, Evander Kane scored 13 goals, Hyman 11 goals. In 2009, in 24 games, Max Talbot scored 8 goals and a 38 year old Bill Guerin scored 7.

Also, McDrai combined on 22 of McDavid's 33 points. Malkin and Crosby combined on 12 of Crosby's points.

Also, the Pens #1 d-man, Gonchar, was injured in 2009 in the 2nd round and missed their entire playoffs in 2017 (Letang).

If injuries are being used as some sort of excuse, how many more Cups do the Pens have if not for injuries to Crosby and Malkin after 2009. You can argue they could have won in 2008 if not for Malkin being injured.

The bottomline here is that Crosby and McDavid are on the same tier offensively; Crosby's style of play is more conducive to him, and his team winning in different ways.
 
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It depends what’s the definition of production. His 0.8 in 2016 was a good number overall, but not compared to his standard. Yes he shut down loaded lines and full credit to that, but strictly speaking for on-ice prefomance, 0.8 for 1C is subpar production. He provided far greater intrinsic value by playing with plugs, so I’m not criticizing it. Here’s the problem for me, I don’t know how much of HBK’s success is on Crosby making sacrifices, and how much is on each member of that line overplaying their ability and usual stat line massively. It’s a combination of both. Everyone would use that formula if it garanteed a Kessel type player to play that great without a star center on his side, but there is no guarantee.

This has been beaten to death. The Pens do not win a Cup, let alone get to the SCF, with Crosby playing at a subpar level. That was the theme throughout his career. His team is among the most dominating Cup winners since 2005 with Crosby as the centrepiece where he notably stepped up offensively in big games and moments.

He was the league's best player but now we have to believe that the coach decided to risk his production and team success by giving him a career 3rd liner and an AHL callup who was terrible defensively?

I am sure the coach would have changed lines around if the strategy wasn't working but it worked to a T from the very start of the playoffs. They dominated playing a puck possession strategy.

Too bad McDavid doesn't have that versatility in his game.
 
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I am not sure how many times you need to be told, Crosby created depth on his championship teams by being able to play effectively with any level of linemates that help execute their team strategy.

Also, McDavid and Draisaitl play a lot at ES in the playoffs when both are healthy including this season.

Also, in 2022, in 16 games, Evander Kane scored 13 goals, Hyman 11 goals. In 2009, in 24 games, Max Talbot scored 8 goals and a 38 year old Bill Guerin scored 7.

Also, McDrai combined on 22 of McDavid's 33 points. Malkin and Crosby combined on 12 of Crosby's points.

Also, the Pens #1 d-man, Gonchar, was injured in 2009 in the 2nd round and missed their entire playoffs in 2017 (Letang).

If injuries are being used as some sort of excuse, how many more Cups do the Pens have if not for injuries to Crosby and Malkin after 2009. You can argue they could have won in 2008 if not for Malkin being injured.

The bottomline here is that Crosby and McDavid are on the same tier offensively; Crosby's style of play is more conducive to him, and his team winning in different ways.
McDavid has about .5 pt/gm more in the playoffs than Crosby. s That is about the same gap as Crosby to Sam Bennett. And yes Crosby has played more years. But if you only want to look at say their three highest scoring years it is McDavid with 95 in 52 = 1.82 pts/gm vs Crosby's 85 in 68 = 1.25 pts/gm so on the same tier offensively in the playoffs might well be a stretch.

In 2016 Crosby had 19 points in 24 games vs McDavid's 33 in 16 in 2022 or 42 in 25 last year. You would argue that the Pens won but the Oilers didn't because Crosby did so many other things to help the team that McDavid cannot. Yet he ended up a -2 that year so while he was on the ice his team at even strength gave up more than they scored. In contrast McDavid was respectively a plus 15 and plus 12 playing typically against the oppositions best players. So what magical thing was Crosby doing to carry the Pens to victory while he was not on the ice?

As far as the bolded is concerned, thank you for making my case.
 
McDavid has about .5 pt/gm more in the playoffs than Crosby. s That is about the same gap as Crosby to Sam Bennett. And yes Crosby has played more years. But if you only want to look at say their three highest scoring years it is McDavid with 95 in 52 = 1.82 pts/gm vs Crosby's 85 in 68 = 1.25 pts/gm so on the same tier offensively in the playoffs might well be a stretch.

McDavid's PPG in the Oilers 8 wins so far is 1.38 and they are positioned as good as they ever have after the 2nd round in his career.

Get ready for some circluar logic.

And there's the circle of logic.

Let's recap:

They are on the same tier offensively in the regular season (based on their respective PPG dominance over the other elite forwards).

McDavid then takes it up a notch in the playoffs but because his support "is not even close" to what Crosby had on the Pens, he cannot win a Cup.

Doesn't pass the smell test.
 
And there's the circle of logic.

Let's recap:

They are on the same tier offensively in the regular season (based on their respective PPG dominance over the other elite forwards).

McDavid then takes it up a notch in the playoffs but because his support "is not even close" to what Crosby had on the Pens, he cannot win a Cup.

Doesn't pass the smell test.
The Oilers depth is miles better than it was in 2022. It's not even close. Though it is still probably not quite on par with any of the Pens winners without Ekholm when you factor in inconsistency in net. Give this team the Pens goaltending from their cup years and I am confident that they would win this year and would have also won last year. They may even have won in 2023 since the big difference in the Vegas series was in net.

The drop in McDavid's ppg is entirely due to a significant drop in pp points which is a combination of the team's lower success rate and the fact that the Oilers get very few pp opportunities (on average 2.18 per game). Since the cap era started only the 2014-2015 Washington Capitals have had fewer pp opportunities amongst teams playing at least 10 games. During their cup years the Penguin's had 4.04, 3.21 and 3.12 chances per game. And that does not take into account that pp opportunities tend to go down in the later rounds. That would be a difference of between 11 and 22 more pp's for the Oilers

McDavid has 16 ES points so far in 11 games. Crosby only beat this twice with 18 in 24 games in 2017 and 21 in 24 in 2009. McDavid also did this vs the teams with the second and third best GA/g numbers in the league.

So all told...What is your point????
 
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They are on the same tier offensively in the regular season (based on their respective PPG dominance over the other elite forwards).

McDavid then takes it up a notch in the playoffs but because his support "is not even close" to what Crosby had on the Pens, he cannot win a Cup.
It shouldn't be a circle of logic because hockey is a four-line game. For example, McDavid's current 1.54 ppg is lower than last year's 1.68, but that's been offset by the depth scoring. If McDavid's line ppg drops by 0.3, but the other three lines each improve by 0.15, the net impact is +0.15, which is sound reasoning why the Oilers are better positioned this year than ever. Depth scoring has been the X factor so far, and I can't determine why McDavid's lower PPG in wins has anything to do with that. If the other three lines play better, the Oilers have a higher chance of winning.

This is what happened every year until now: McDavid dominates his matchup, then his third and fourth liners blow the game. Props to Crosby for "forcing" his depth to step up by playing with subpar wingers, but McDavid's lower ppg is not the reason the Oilers are better positioned this year. The other lines won their matchup against Vegas for once.
 
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The Oilers depth is miles better than it was in 2022. It's not even close.

Sure, this doesn't mean the Oiler's supporting cast was better than the Pens' supporting case in 2009. The numbers point to the Oilers having clearly superior forward depth.
 
Sure, this doesn't mean the Oiler's supporting cast was better than the Pens' supporting case in 2009. The numbers point to the Oilers having clearly superior forward depth.
Yes this year the Oilers are getting excellent production out of their depth. That is in good part why they are 8-3 so far. If that continues and they can straighten out their special teams they will be hard to beat even with very sketchy goaltending. But you are making my point. In the past it was not that way. Over the last three years without McDavid on the ice the Oilers scored 57 ES goals and gave up 85. With McDavid on the ice they scored 74 ES goals and gave up 54. So they go from a +24 to a -28. In 2009 with Crosby on the ice the Pens scored 23 ES goals and gave up 14. Without him it was 35GF vs 34 GA. In the three cup years with Crosby on the ice the Pens scored 62 ES goals and gave up 51. But with Crosby off the ice they scored 109 and gave up 84. Do you see a pattern here????

There is also more to "depth" than forwards. This year the Oilers finally have some depth on the backend even without Ekholm who is often their best all round defenseman and who is an absolute key to their pk which has failed them too often without him. But a big difference between this years Oiler team and the say the 2009 Pens is in goal. That Pens team had a first ballot Hall of Famer in net even if he was still young. This Oiler team is and has been winning with Mikko Koskinen, a taped together nearly 40 year old Mike Smith, Calvin Pickard and Stuart Skinner. They have won every single game so far this year where their goalie gave them even a fighting chance. And generally that has been true each of the last two years as well. Skinner is incredibly inconsistent. Can you say the same of Fleury or Murray during the 2016-17 and 2017-18 years?

Here's the point. This is not the NBA where two guys can win you a championship. Great players make winning easier. But they cannot make up for all weakness a team has when they are not on the ice.
 

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