There is absolutely nothing to suggest they were the same calibre of offensive threat. Nothing.
Is mcdavid too good not to win a cup?
- Thread starter Luongoisthegoat
- Start date
I Hate Blake Coleman
F*** the oilers
The McDavid defence criticism in the context of "why he hasn't won a Cup yet" is just boring.
If you made a list of top reasons why Connor McDavid has not won a Cup yet, his individual defence would not rank in the top 1000. Especially since if he were ever to make a drastic shift in his defensive game, it would most certainly cost some offensive production, and the tradeoff would likely make the Oilers worse. I know that's not the fun cliche thing to say, but let's be real.
If you made a list of top reasons why Connor McDavid has not won a Cup yet, his individual defence would not rank in the top 1000. Especially since if he were ever to make a drastic shift in his defensive game, it would most certainly cost some offensive production, and the tradeoff would likely make the Oilers worse. I know that's not the fun cliche thing to say, but let's be real.
RevengeOfTheDrai
Registered User
Sure, but many faulted him for not producing in game 7, claiming that’s the reason the Oilers lost. McDavid doesn’t produce, his team looses, Crosby doesn’t, or outright misses half a game, and his team wins. Sure the 2009 Pens were weaker, but it’s clear that them winning wasn’t a result of Crosby elevating them to the next level. No player can win the cup by himself and Crosby had a tremendous amount of help.
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Noone is arguing that Crosby won the Cup on his own. The argument is that he is on McDavid's teir offensively, that he is more versatile offensively, and brings other things besides offence. He is the prototypical franchise #1C facing the other team's best Cs and #1 lines while McDavid spends significant amount of time as a C/W hybrid, especially when he plays with Draisaitl.
It's obvious questionable, at best, to say that McDavid wins the Cup if you put him on the 2009 Pens. Crosby was better through three rounds than McDavid was through three rounds in 2024. It's not certain that McDavid gets that team to the SCF at all so talk of who did what in the SCF is a moot point.
What is a lot more reasonable is to double Crosby's regular season hardware if he played just 50 more games in his career at key times making a comparison with McDavid a lot less closer than it is.
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Hockey Outsider
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- Jan 16, 2005
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I'll post this here, since it's (predictably) turned into another Crosby vs McDavid debate. I'll compare both players' output, relative to the top ten scorers in the league. (This is done in order to reflect the reality that McDavid has, on average, played in a higher-scoring environment than Crosby).
In terms of what the numbers mean - for example, in 2023, the top ten scorers produced 1,147 points. McDavid scored 153. His result is 153 / 114.7 = 1.33.
Comparison of points by age
Commentary: Crosby has a big head start. He had a very good season at age 18, and an even better one at age 19 (McDavid missed nearly half his rookie season). McDavid has three blowout wins (ages 20, 23 and especially 24 - Crosby fans will be sure to remind you that these were the years where he missed a lot of games). There are six close calls, where they finish within +/-9% of each other (McDavid is ahead ages 21, 25, 26 and 27, while Crosby is ahead ages 22 and 28).
Comparison of points (best to worst)
Commentary: this is showing their results, sorted from best to worst. (In McDavid's case, this is his entire career; in Crosby's, it also includes campaigns from the second half of his career). This is fairly one-sided in favour of McDavid. If we compare their best full seasons head to head (2014 and 2007 vs 2021 and 2023), McDavid is clearly ahead. When we compare their next six seasons (ie their 3rd through 8th best seasons overall), McDavid is ahead each year, but it's closer. It's remarkably consistent - he's ahead 5-7% each season. The 9th best season is a tie, and Crosby is only ahead when we look at their 10th best seasons (Crosby's 2019 campaign vs McDavid's injury-shortened rookie year).
Comparison of PPG by age
Commentary: Crosby has three decisive wins (>10%) - ages 19, 23 and 25. McDavid has two decisive wins - ages 26 and 27. All the other years are fairly close.
Comparison of PPG (best to worst)
Commentary: in all ten years, they're within +/-10% of each other. In fact, in nine of these seasons, they're within +/-5%. Crosby is slightly ahead overall (he leads in six of the ten categories, and he's ahead by 2% across the entire period). I was surprised to see that Crosby is ahead in all five of their best seasons head to head.
Overall, if we're comparing actual output, McDavid is unquestionably ahead through ten seasons. The comparison is a bit closer than it looks at first (because McDavid has played in a higher-scoring environment), but there's no question that he's ahead. If you think that PPG is a better measure of a player's ability, it's very close, and in fact an argument can be made that Crosby is slightly ahead. I think it's plausible to argue that both centres have similar ability.
There are a few important disclaimers. First, these tables are taking their pace (i.e. points per game) at face value. McDavid has been much healthier, so there isn't much question as to whether his numbers are sustainable. That's not the case for Crosby (ie would he really maintain a pace of 1.68 PPG over 60 extra games in 2012, when he never scored at that pace in any full season?) Second, this is assuming that both peer groups are equally good. I think people tend to exaggerate the gap, but on balance, McDavid has probably faced tougher competition (though not by much). Third, Crosby has a reputation for being a better two-way player, and that's not reflected anywhere in these numbers (which are solely about point production).
In terms of what the numbers mean - for example, in 2023, the top ten scorers produced 1,147 points. McDavid scored 153. His result is 153 / 114.7 = 1.33.
Comparison of points by age
Commentary: Crosby has a big head start. He had a very good season at age 18, and an even better one at age 19 (McDavid missed nearly half his rookie season). McDavid has three blowout wins (ages 20, 23 and especially 24 - Crosby fans will be sure to remind you that these were the years where he missed a lot of games). There are six close calls, where they finish within +/-9% of each other (McDavid is ahead ages 21, 25, 26 and 27, while Crosby is ahead ages 22 and 28).
Comparison of points (best to worst)
Commentary: this is showing their results, sorted from best to worst. (In McDavid's case, this is his entire career; in Crosby's, it also includes campaigns from the second half of his career). This is fairly one-sided in favour of McDavid. If we compare their best full seasons head to head (2014 and 2007 vs 2021 and 2023), McDavid is clearly ahead. When we compare their next six seasons (ie their 3rd through 8th best seasons overall), McDavid is ahead each year, but it's closer. It's remarkably consistent - he's ahead 5-7% each season. The 9th best season is a tie, and Crosby is only ahead when we look at their 10th best seasons (Crosby's 2019 campaign vs McDavid's injury-shortened rookie year).
Comparison of PPG by age
Commentary: Crosby has three decisive wins (>10%) - ages 19, 23 and 25. McDavid has two decisive wins - ages 26 and 27. All the other years are fairly close.
Comparison of PPG (best to worst)
Commentary: in all ten years, they're within +/-10% of each other. In fact, in nine of these seasons, they're within +/-5%. Crosby is slightly ahead overall (he leads in six of the ten categories, and he's ahead by 2% across the entire period). I was surprised to see that Crosby is ahead in all five of their best seasons head to head.
Overall, if we're comparing actual output, McDavid is unquestionably ahead through ten seasons. The comparison is a bit closer than it looks at first (because McDavid has played in a higher-scoring environment), but there's no question that he's ahead. If you think that PPG is a better measure of a player's ability, it's very close, and in fact an argument can be made that Crosby is slightly ahead. I think it's plausible to argue that both centres have similar ability.
There are a few important disclaimers. First, these tables are taking their pace (i.e. points per game) at face value. McDavid has been much healthier, so there isn't much question as to whether his numbers are sustainable. That's not the case for Crosby (ie would he really maintain a pace of 1.68 PPG over 60 extra games in 2012, when he never scored at that pace in any full season?) Second, this is assuming that both peer groups are equally good. I think people tend to exaggerate the gap, but on balance, McDavid has probably faced tougher competition (though not by much). Third, Crosby has a reputation for being a better two-way player, and that's not reflected anywhere in these numbers (which are solely about point production).
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Honest question. Do you think the oilers have won a cup now if they had Crosby instead of McDavid? The answer is obviously no, but I want to see if you’ll admit it
JFedol
🅱🅱🅱 M.I.P Pac 1971-1996, Makaveli Tha Don 🐐
As crazy as it sounds, I think we haven't seen it happen yet...
Maybe in the future, the generational stats and players will have way bigger ceilings and floors, that so called depth and all that team-focused bullshit will completely go out the window, and you'll see said player have like a 70pt playoff run.
cowboy82nd
Registered User
The answer is maybe, because Crosby doesn't cost as much as McDavid. With Crosby on the team (and his salary) changes the team. You have to acknowledge that.
McDavid's PPG in the Oilers 8 wins so far is 1.38 and they are positioned as good as they ever have after the 2nd round in his career.
Get ready for some circluar logic.
Get ready for some circluar logic.
That is some nice data but the discussion is about the playoffs where it is clear some players perform at their regular season level offensively and some don't, and where some players have an "it" factor and some don't. In Crosby vs. McDavid, it seems clear that Crosby brought more to the plate than offensive production, which can be argued was on the same tier as McDavid's as you have noted in your post.
Crosby backed up his stature at the best player of his era with the best playoff resume of his era (most points, most Smythes, best team performance with 3 Cups and another SCF appearance and the most team playoff wins).
RevengeOfTheDrai
Registered User
Let’s look at their finals stats, since the only reason McDavid doesn’t have a cup is because he lost in the finals last year.
Paraphrasing Grate n Colorful’s post:
Finals stats
Crosby
20pts 25gp +3
Scoreless in 12 of 25
5v5
405:15toi 16:12toi/g
12 pts (1.78 p/60)
14gf (2.07 gf/60) 12ga (1.78 ga/60) +0.29/60
AllStrenght
15tk 24gv
McDavid
11pts 7gp +5
Scoreless in 3 of 7
5v5
110:36toi 15:48toi/g
6 pts (3.25 p/60)
7gf (3.80 gf/60) 2ga (1.08 ga/60) +2.72/60
AllStrenght
10tk 8gv
What “IT” factor does Crosby add when McDavid had been better defensively and offensively in the finals?. Only 2 goals allowed in 110 minutes of 5v5 play for McDavid in the finals. 1.08ga/60 is clearly superior to Crosby’s 1.78ga/60. Lines with McDavid have produced almost at a double clip in the finals at 5v5 than lines with Crosby in the finals, while allowing close to 2/3 the goals on average. What did Crosby bring to the plate apart from offense more so than McDavid that helped his team win?. 2 goal against all series is elite defense, and he also accumulated points without Draisaitl.
Crosby is obviously the best playoff preformer of his generation, but I can’t help but feel like his team’s goaltending and depth scoring was incredibly consistent during his cup wins. Maybe that has been the reason between their difference in silverware.
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That's the point. People point to PPGs and point totals and say McDavid is better than Crosby!
But McDavid is scoring scores below his career playoff PPG so far but they are pacing for their best playoff yet.
What does too good to win the cup mean? McDavid is by far the best player to ever play the game. It’s not even close. Present or past. So yes he’s too good not to win the cup that would be a shame.
So… still better than anything Crosby has ever done in all but three? Which we’re all 1st or 2nd round loses?
Also shows how it’s a TEAM game because others have picked up when he’s slowed down offensively?
What exactly is the point you’re trying to prove here?
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Yes because it’s a TEAM game.
And as already stated… 1.38 is both above Crosby’s career average AND better than any single playoff performance Crosby has ever put up except three, which were all 1st or 2nd round loses.
When Crosby was anywhere close to McDavid, their cap hit % was pretty similar.
Unless you think Crosby today or last season would help the Oilers more? In which case, lol.
Miro4Norris
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- Jan 24, 2021
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Seems like Oilers is finally doing this now what i suggested before playoffs, but of course McDavid still needs a super-line to go 0+0 with them and instead Draisaitl carries the team by forming a good line with 5th liners Podkolzin and Kapanen
Result: Boom, best depth scoring in the league!
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