Is mcdavid too good not to win a cup?

[nbwingsfan]

This isn't saying much. That's the whole point. His linemates in 2009 were a decent Top 6 player in Kunitz and 38 year old Bill Guerin.

The Pens 2009 roster outside of Crosby and Malkin was inferior to anything the Oilers have had since 2022, and McDavid's ES linemates have been superior to Crosby's ES linemates in 2009.

Let's put it this way, McDavid was fortunate to have better health at his peak which is why he has more Art Rosses than Crosby. I don't think he is the superior offensive player. Crosby, IMO, created fortune for himself by being the more versatile player offensively and overall.

It's a bit like Wayne and Mario; similar offensive ceilings but the feeling is that Wayne was more of a winner.

There is absolutely nothing to suggest they were the same calibre of offensive threat. Nothing.

 

[I Hate Blake Coleman]

It doesn't matter how f***ing good he is. He needs an adequate team (including goaltending).

 

[crowfish]

The McDavid defence criticism in the context of "why he hasn't won a Cup yet" is just boring.

If you made a list of top reasons why Connor McDavid has not won a Cup yet, his individual defence would not rank in the top 1000. Especially since if he were ever to make a drastic shift in his defensive game, it would most certainly cost some offensive production, and the tradeoff would likely make the Oilers worse. I know that's not the fun cliche thing to say, but let's be real.

 

[RevengeOfTheDrai]

McDavid gets credit for producing in one of the Oilers wins last year. It's not a good arguement to make.

Sure, but many faulted him for not producing in game 7, claiming that’s the reason the Oilers lost. McDavid doesn’t produce, his team looses, Crosby doesn’t, or outright misses half a game, and his team wins. Sure the 2009 Pens were weaker, but it’s clear that them winning wasn’t a result of Crosby elevating them to the next level. No player can win the cup by himself and Crosby had a tremendous amount of help.

 

[daver]

Sure, but many faulted him for not producing in game 7, claiming that’s the reason the Oilers lost. McDavid doesn’t produce, his team looses, Crosby doesn’t, or outright misses half a game, and his team wins. Sure the 2009 Pens were weaker, but it’s clear that them winning wasn’t a result of Crosby elevating them to the next level. No player can win the cup by himself and Crosby had a tremendous amount of help.

Noone is arguing that Crosby won the Cup on his own. The argument is that he is on McDavid's teir offensively, that he is more versatile offensively, and brings other things besides offence. He is the prototypical franchise #1C facing the other team's best Cs and #1 lines while McDavid spends significant amount of time as a C/W hybrid, especially when he plays with Draisaitl.

It's obvious questionable, at best, to say that McDavid wins the Cup if you put him on the 2009 Pens. Crosby was better through three rounds than McDavid was through three rounds in 2024. It's not certain that McDavid gets that team to the SCF at all so talk of who did what in the SCF is a moot point.

What is a lot more reasonable is to double Crosby's regular season hardware if he played just 50 more games in his career at key times making a comparison with McDavid a lot less closer than it is.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

I'll post this here, since it's (predictably) turned into another Crosby vs McDavid debate. I'll compare both players' output, relative to the top ten scorers in the league. (This is done in order to reflect the reality that McDavid has, on average, played in a higher-scoring environment than Crosby).

In terms of what the numbers mean - for example, in 2023, the top ten scorers produced 1,147 points. McDavid scored 153. His result is 153 / 114.7 = 1.33.

Comparison of points by age

Commentary: Crosby has a big head start. He had a very good season at age 18, and an even better one at age 19 (McDavid missed nearly half his rookie season). McDavid has three blowout wins (ages 20, 23 and especially 24 - Crosby fans will be sure to remind you that these were the years where he missed a lot of games). There are six close calls, where they finish within +/-9% of each other (McDavid is ahead ages 21, 25, 26 and 27, while Crosby is ahead ages 22 and 28).

Comparison of points (best to worst)

Commentary: this is showing their results, sorted from best to worst. (In McDavid's case, this is his entire career; in Crosby's, it also includes campaigns from the second half of his career). This is fairly one-sided in favour of McDavid. If we compare their best full seasons head to head (2014 and 2007 vs 2021 and 2023), McDavid is clearly ahead. When we compare their next six seasons (ie their 3rd through 8th best seasons overall), McDavid is ahead each year, but it's closer. It's remarkably consistent - he's ahead 5-7% each season. The 9th best season is a tie, and Crosby is only ahead when we look at their 10th best seasons (Crosby's 2019 campaign vs McDavid's injury-shortened rookie year).


Comparison of PPG by age

Commentary: Crosby has three decisive wins (>10%) - ages 19, 23 and 25. McDavid has two decisive wins - ages 26 and 27. All the other years are fairly close.

Comparison of PPG (best to worst)

Commentary: in all ten years, they're within +/-10% of each other. In fact, in nine of these seasons, they're within +/-5%. Crosby is slightly ahead overall (he leads in six of the ten categories, and he's ahead by 2% across the entire period). I was surprised to see that Crosby is ahead in all five of their best seasons head to head.

Overall, if we're comparing actual output, McDavid is unquestionably ahead through ten seasons. The comparison is a bit closer than it looks at first (because McDavid has played in a higher-scoring environment), but there's no question that he's ahead. If you think that PPG is a better measure of a player's ability, it's very close, and in fact an argument can be made that Crosby is slightly ahead. I think it's plausible to argue that both centres have similar ability.

There are a few important disclaimers. First, these tables are taking their pace (i.e. points per game) at face value. McDavid has been much healthier, so there isn't much question as to whether his numbers are sustainable. That's not the case for Crosby (ie would he really maintain a pace of 1.68 PPG over 60 extra games in 2012, when he never scored at that pace in any full season?) Second, this is assuming that both peer groups are equally good. I think people tend to exaggerate the gap, but on balance, McDavid has probably faced tougher competition (though not by much). Third, Crosby has a reputation for being a better two-way player, and that's not reflected anywhere in these numbers (which are solely about point production).

 

[nbwingsfan]

Noone is arguing that Crosby won the Cup on his own. The argument is that he is on McDavid's teir offensively, that he is more versatile offensively, and brings other things besides offence. He is the prototypical franchise #1C facing the other team's best Cs and #1 lines while McDavid spends significant amount of time as a C/W hybrid, especially when he plays with Draisaitl.

It's obvious questionable, at best, to say that McDavid wins the Cup if you put him on the 2009 Pens. Crosby was better through three rounds than McDavid was through three rounds in 2024. It's not certain that McDavid gets that team to the SCF at all so talk of who did what in the SCF is a moot point.

What is a lot more reasonable is to double Crosby's regular season hardware if he played just 50 more games in his career at key times making a comparison with McDavid a lot less closer than it is.

Honest question. Do you think the oilers have won a cup now if they had Crosby instead of McDavid? The answer is obviously no, but I want to see if you’ll admit it