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Is Leon Draisaitl Gonna Break Nathan Mackinnon's HART

daver said:
Sometimes it is, sometimes it isn't, hence the "not necessarily". Thornton won in 05/06 for example and Sedin in 09/10.
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Thornton in 05/06 isn't a good example, as we saw him traded midseason and take the team from last place in the division to one of the top teams in the league standings. Your impact on winning and where your team finishes has always been an important aspect of the voting.

2010 is also a bad example in my opinion. OV didn't have any goal advantage over the rest of the pack, and actually lost the Richard to Crosby that year. I believe he had 3 other teammates finish in the top 20 in points as well. 2010 doesn't really support your argument much.
 
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daver said:
As for Makar, how much are his numbers influenced by MacKinnon? I can't find the numbers but it seems to be significant.
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Of course his numbers are influenced by MacKinnon, and vice versa. However his defensive numbers aren't reliant on MacKinnon at all, while Makar certainly props up MacKinnon's poor defensive metrics.
 
daver said:
You missed where there are plenty of examples where a goalscoring edge isn't the be all, end all. OV being more of a one man show on the Caps was the bigger factor, IMO.

Total points is the much more reliable indicator of the Hart winner than goalscoring.
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Total points is only reliable if you have a notable amount of more points than the pack. If points are close, then impact on winning and where your team finishes in the standings and then goal scoring seem to be the most relevant tie breakers. Otherwise Kucherov would have won last year.

I can't find a single example in Hart voting history where a player won simply based on their point total. Team record, points over 2nd place on their team, and goal scoring finish have always been a factor.
 
It's not that complex. Goals > assists. Drai is neck in neck for the points lead in addition to running away with the goals race. Throw in Drai is doing this in a down year for McDavid (by his standards), and has been a better all-around player than he has been in the past. Drai and Hellebuyck both deserve the Hart more than any other players.
 
daver said:
You missed where there are plenty of examples where a goalscoring edge isn't the be all, end all. OV being more of a one man show on the Caps was the bigger factor, IMO.

Total points is the much more reliable indicator of the Hart winner than goalscoring.
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Well mackinnon isn't close to being a one man show, he has the best defenseman in the world on the ice with him like 85% of the game, he had a top 10 scoring winer stapled to his wing until he was traded for a top 20 scoring winger that's been stapled to his wing.
 
MacMacandBarbie said:
Total points is only reliable if you have a notable amount of more points than the pack. If points are close, then impact on winning and where your team finishes in the standings and then goal scoring seem to be the most relevant tie breakers. Otherwise Kucherov would have won last year.

I can't find a single example in Hart voting history where a player won simply based on their point total. Team record, points over 2nd place on their team, and goal scoring finish have always been a factor.
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Henrik Sedin to some degree. Crosby was 3 points back, but led in goals 51-29, had a bigger lead over the number 2 scorer on his team (32 points over Malkin to 27 points over Daniel), and the Canucks and Pens were basically even in the standings (Canucks led by 2 points). And Crosby was only 3rd, with Ovechkin finishing second, who also had a much bigger goal lead than Henrik had a point gap, and the Caps were much higher in the standings, though Ovi didn’t have the large gap to his teammate. There the narrative seemed to be the bigger factor, with Henrik producing with his brother out (even though his point production was a lot lower during those games).
 
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Regal said:
Henrik Sedin to some degree. Crosby was 3 points back, but led in goals 51-29, had a bigger lead over the number 2 scorer on his team (32 points over Malkin to 27 points over Daniel), and the Canucks and Pens were basically even in the standings (Canucks led by 2 points). And Crosby was only 3rd, with Ovechkin finishing second, who also had a much bigger goal lead than Henrik had a point gap, and the Caps were much higher in the standings, though Ovi didn’t have the large gap to his teammate. There the narrative seemed to be the bigger factor, with Henrik producing with his brother out (even though his point production was a lot lower during those games).
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To some degree I suppose. The voting shows that all 3 of OV, Crosby, and Henrik received a similar amount of Hart votes. OV and Crosby had very similar cases and likely split voters. Was one of the more narrow Hart wins in recent history. The real issue being that the difference in goals between Crosby and OV was 51 to 50 with the same point total. If Pastrnak or someone was close to Draisaitl's goal totals this season, then his goal scoring edge would have less significance, but since he is leading the pack, its very significant.
 
It's Draisaitls to lose. I think he is the clear favorite and has been for sometime. One guy has 2 more points and 22 less goals. One guy is racking up EN points comparative to the other.

Draisaitl will win his 2nd Hart this season.
 
Crosby2010 said:
Right now I will say it is MacKinnon's to lose.
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Fataldogg said:
It's Draisaitls to lose. I think he is the clear favorite and has been for sometime. One guy has 2 more points and 22 less goals. One guy is racking up EN points comparative to the other.

Draisaitl will win his 2nd Hart this season.
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How fast things change. Stay tuned to the next comment to see if its still drai's to lose


On a serious note, as I haven't heard it discussed much. Does anybody feel like there is voter fatigue among MacK? A voter that voted MacK over Kucherov last year might feel like he deserves less benefit of the doubt this year.
 
WATTAGE4451 said:
Colorado has one recent cup. Edmonton was 1 game from having one as well and have the 2nd most playoff wins the last 3 years only behind florida.
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People always mention “one game away from winning the cup” and not one game away from being the first team to get swept since the 98 Caps
 
Mr Nogatco said:
People always mention “one game away from winning the cup” and not one game away from being the first team to get swept since the 98 Caps
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Or one goal from losing to a 3rd string goalie who is last in sv% over the past two seasons.

The Avs have had significantly more team success than the Oilers. First and foremost, a pretty dominant Cup run in 2022 that is clearly better than the 2024 Oilers who ultimately lost a series that could have been over a lot sooner. I don't think anyone picks the Oilers if they had to play again.

The Avs came within a whisker of getting to the WCF and likely the Cup final in 2020 and were close again in 2019.

The 2021 Avs and the 2024 were a disappointment.

IMO, the Oilers 2nd best team wasn't the 2022 version who runned and gunned their way to the WCF and then got soundly outrunned and gunned , it was the 2017 team.

The Oilers have been knocking on the door but have been generally a disappointment despite having a generational talent and a superstar forward. They can cement McDavid's and Drai's legacy with a Cup win this year like OV did with his win.

An Avs Cup with a strong performance by Mac puts him closer to McDavid than Draisaitl as a player.
 
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daver said:
Or one goal from losing to a 3rd string goalie who is last in sv% over the past two seasons.

The Avs have had significantly more team success than the Oilers. First and foremost, a pretty dominant Cup run in 2022 that is clearly better than the 2024 Oilers who ultimately lost a series that could have been over a lot sooner. I don't think anyone picks the Oilers if they had to play again.

The Avs came within a whisker of getting to the WCF and likely the Cup final in 2020 and were close again in 2019.

The 2021 Avs and the 2024 were a disappointment.

IMO, the Oilers 2nd best team wasn't the 2022 version who runned and gunned their way to the WCF and then got soundly outrunned and gunned , it was the 2017 team.

The Oilers have been knocking on the door but have been generally a disappointment despite having a generational talent and a superstar forward. They can cement McDavid's and Drai's legacy with a Cup win this year like OV did with his win.

An Avs Cup with a strong performance by Mac puts him closer to McDavid than Draisaitl as a player.
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Avs are champs no doubt, before that cup though they had a reputation of choking and since then they won 1 round in 2 years. Since they have a cup I'll agree they have more success then the Oilers but regardless the Avs have only made it out of the 2nd round once in Mack's career. The year they won the cup they had a stacked team with a bunch of value contracts.

I'd say the Oilers second best team was 2023 when they lost to Vegas.
 
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WATTAGE4451 said:
In reality. They are one game away from having as many as colorado. You are acting like colorado has been winning 5 in the last decade. Get better at trolling
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Almost engraved on the cup and being engraved on the cup is a very hard line that Edmonton did not cross
 
Mr Nogatco said:
People always mention “one game away from winning the cup” and not one game away from being the first team to get swept since the 98 Caps
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And still the only team from wc that mafe it and al.ost only team to come back frkm 3-0 deficit in stanley cup.

Im a blues fan, not an oilers fan. I just find all this stupid ridicule like one goal game being difference between a team being awesome and being joke of a league is trash hockey analysis on level of 12 year Olds bragging about their team.

People just didnt like the lilers. Even if they won, people woukd find new goalposts to invalidate it cuz theyve always been moving the goal posts to complain about mcdavid. First it was not win playoff series. Then it was not make it past 2nd round. Then never even made cup finals and that the teams they beat are trash teams and they have to beat what people consider the legitimate teams which are arbitrary and silly co sidering those "legitimate teams" had gotten beaten by teams oilers beat on their path several time in last few years.

If oilers won, it would instead just be that oilers choked or cup was illegitimate or some other trash.

And im not even an oilers fan
 
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