The league has clear top 4 with mcdavid mackinnon Draisaitl and Kucherov over the last 10 years
Is Leon Draisaitl Gonna Break Nathan Mackinnons HART
- Thread starter Danarqhy
- Start date
Spot on. I don’t know why so many over complicate this.
Once this season concludes, these four players will have won 7 of the last 9 Harts, with two of them being the runner ups in the two years not won, the last 9 Art Rosses, and the last 9 Lindsay trophies.
It’s down slightly but we can adjust for that. 60 this year in a 2.99 GPG environment would still be behind Matthews’ 69 last year in a 3.08 GPG environment (3.08/2.99 x60= 62), slightly behind McDavid’s 64 in a 3.14 GPG environment (3.14/2.99 x60 = 63), and slightly ahead of Pasta’s 62 the same year. Matthews’ 60 in ‘22 would be behind (3.11/2.99 x 60= 62), but still better per game (60/73 x82= 67). Matthews’ pace (41/52 x82 = 65) in the Covid shortened season was also better (2.90/2.99 x 60 = 58). Even in 19-20, a similar scoring environment, Ovechkin was on pace for 58 before Covid shut the season down. It really doesn’t stand out from the other top goalscoring seasons the past 5 years before this one.
And if we look at the 5th place and 10th place goalscorers, we see that he doesn’t have a bigger lead over his peers than those other seasons, other than the top guys
Currently he’s out scoring 10th place by 53%
Last year, Matthews outscored 10th place by 57%
22-23, McDavid outscored 10th place by 52%
21-22, Matthews outscored 10th place by 43%
20-21, Matthews outscored 10th place by 58%
19-20, Ovechkin and Pasta outscored 10th place by 41%
It’s a very good goal scoring year, and we’ve had a number of strong goalscoring years recently that he fits in with, but it’s not better than those years just because no one else is having a very good goal scoring year. It’s a little like the 2010s for Ovechkin. He was having some strong goalscoring years but his competition was pretty weak which makes them look better than they were if we were only to compare him to the 2nd place finishers.
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I can only speak for myself but I wasn’t claiming this was the most impressive goal scoring season, however it very much seems on par with the best goal scoring years in recent years when adjusted for the scoring environment. If anything it would appear to strengthen his Hart trophy case.
yea MacKinnon should be nowhere near the Hart trophy this season with all those empty net freebies
In Leon Draisaitl's past 41 games (exactly half the season), he has 68 points. That's the best in the NHL over that time (5 more points, and 14 more goals, than MacKinnon). However, in the 25-26 games to start the season, it was 39 to 32 for MacKinnon.
It's really a tough choice between them, at this point in time. But of late, even though the Oil have been struggling, Draisaitl has been very consistently hot. He is #1 in goals by a large amount, and he simultaneously leads the NHL in ES goals and PP goals (and game winning goals), which isn't common.
It's really a tough choice between them, at this point in time. But of late, even though the Oil have been struggling, Draisaitl has been very consistently hot. He is #1 in goals by a large amount, and he simultaneously leads the NHL in ES goals and PP goals (and game winning goals), which isn't common.
It's interesting how close those top-4 scorers are of late. In each guy's past 82 regular season games:
133 points -- Kucherov
127 points -- MacKinnon
126 points -- MacDavid
120 points -- Draisaitl
(Not to belabor the empty-net thing, but since Kucherov and MacKinnon get way more of those than McDavid / Drai, I suspect if you remove EN points from the above list, all four are almost even.)
133 points -- Kucherov
127 points -- MacKinnon
126 points -- MacDavid
120 points -- Draisaitl
(Not to belabor the empty-net thing, but since Kucherov and MacKinnon get way more of those than McDavid / Drai, I suspect if you remove EN points from the above list, all four are almost even.)
Ya moved goalposts and you’re still wrong.
Draisaitl won the Hart trophy in 2020.
So yeah, his "ever" looks a bit uninformed.
This is also with McDavid being visibly injured for a decent chunk of this time. What I want to know is, does he still look like he’s not 100% lately or is he beginning to look like his old self again? I haven’t caught an Oilers game in a while.
Cant say ive seen to much of oilers, but i am thinking its mental and motivational, this is pure speculation, as with other people we can only guess, but has he come to a realisation that with his current envirment he would not win? One Interview after 4 nations seem to point in that direction.
For me.. it's the goals. He has all the leads and all the important goals. Also, Edmonton has not been great this year.. he's been carrying us while a lot of guys have struggled to find consistency.
As opposed to Matthews and company who have always known they can't win. 8 play offs don't lie.
He’ll be a lovely third place finish.
As brilliant of a season he has had, he’s not winning in a year where one forward has a chasm lead in goals and could pot 60 and win the Art Ross (Draisaitl), another forward who is our most recent winner could hand out 90 assists and win the scoring race he didn’t last season (MacKinnon), and both players will finish with 120-125 points.
Since Orr completed his third consecutive Hart win in 1971-1972, we have seen a non-forward win the Hart just five times over the past 53 years, and only under very specific scenarios.
1. Four of the five instances occurred in a six year span. Hasek owns two of the five and is possibly the greatest goalie ever. That leaves Pronger (1999-2000), Theodore (2001-2002), and Price (2014-2015).
2. No standout forward season is needed, particularly compared to what occurred in the season before.
3. The Art Ross winner fails to hit 100 points.
Pronger won by one vote during a year where the Art Ross winner had 96 points. Jagr missed 19 games, which dinged him in two different ways, i.e. missed 100 points and didn’t suit up for a quarter of his team’s games, automatically lowering his value to the team.
Theodore won during a year where no one hit 100 points and only four players even hit 80. He also tied for the most Hart votes and won with the first place tie breaker.
Price won during a year where no one even hit 90 points. He won convincingly because there were zero interesting stories that season.
Hellebuyck has been incredible from beginning to end, but we still have interesting storylines among the forward crop and the necessary numbers that most voters won’t overlook.
It would take a complete simultaneous collapse by both Draisaitl and MacKinnon at this point and Hellebuyck to win a handful of 1-0 games down the final stretch to turn the tide in terms of collecting enough first place votes to pull off higher than a third place finish.
TLDR: Hellebuyck will not win the Hart.
He still looks off.
Perry is outscoring McDavid at 5v5 since the middle of January. Drai has double his 5v5 points since the New Year. It's basically been a one man show for awhile.
That nhl.com article is pretty surprising considering Drai is a healthy favourite on every betting platform
How much does Makar benefit from MacKinnon? I thought there was a very telling stat that Makar numbers go way down went he is not on the ice with MacKinnon.
If so, this basically negates any talk of MacKinnon's team situation being better than Draisaitl's. It should come down to who simply had the better season without the irritating "VALUABLE TO HIS TEAM!" narratives being overplayed.
If so, this basically negates any talk of MacKinnon's team situation being better than Draisaitl's. It should come down to who simply had the better season without the irritating "VALUABLE TO HIS TEAM!" narratives being overplayed.
Well, let's see the 5on5 lines they play on.
MacKinnon:
259min: Lehkonen-MacKinnon-Rantanen
203min: Lehkonen-MacKinnon-Necas
105min: Colton-MacKinnon-Rantanen
100min: Drouin-MacKinnon-Rantanen
84min: Lehkonen-MacKinnon-Nichushkin
63min: Lehkonen-MacKinnon-Drouin
Mainly, seems like MacKinnon is constantly playing with the best winger available.
Draisaitl:
228min: Hyman-Draisaitl-McDavid
224min: Arvidsson-Draisaitl-Podkolzin
77min: Kapanen-Draisaitl-Podkolzin
There's the time Draisaitl and McDavid are together, but the rest of the time Draisaitl plays with glorified fourth liners.
Imagine playing 224min with Draisaitl and managing 20 points each over the season.
MacKinnon:
259min: Lehkonen-MacKinnon-Rantanen
203min: Lehkonen-MacKinnon-Necas
105min: Colton-MacKinnon-Rantanen
100min: Drouin-MacKinnon-Rantanen
84min: Lehkonen-MacKinnon-Nichushkin
63min: Lehkonen-MacKinnon-Drouin
Mainly, seems like MacKinnon is constantly playing with the best winger available.
Draisaitl:
228min: Hyman-Draisaitl-McDavid
224min: Arvidsson-Draisaitl-Podkolzin
77min: Kapanen-Draisaitl-Podkolzin
There's the time Draisaitl and McDavid are together, but the rest of the time Draisaitl plays with glorified fourth liners.
Imagine playing 224min with Draisaitl and managing 20 points each over the season.
You are never going to win the "who had the better linemates" argument when over 50% of your point shares in your career are with a player who could be Top 5 (or better) all-time.
I would ignore those use that argument to pump up Mac. I don't think the voters are going decide based on that anyways.
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