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Is Leon Draisaitl Gonna Break Nathan Mackinnons HART

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Pass the Saitl Sauce said:
The league has clear top 4 with mcdavid mackinnon Draisaitl and Kucherov over the last 10 years
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Spot on. I don’t know why so many over complicate this.

Once this season concludes, these four players will have won 7 of the last 9 Harts, with two of them being the runner ups in the two years not won, the last 9 Art Rosses, and the last 9 Lindsay trophies.
 
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Pip said:
Are scoring levels the same?

When I look at NHL League Averages | Hockey-Reference.com

The comparable recent years are 2019/2020 and 2018/19. A 60 goal year in this scoring environment seems significant.

Please someone correct me if I’m off base here
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It’s down slightly but we can adjust for that. 60 this year in a 2.99 GPG environment would still be behind Matthews’ 69 last year in a 3.08 GPG environment (3.08/2.99 x60= 62), slightly behind McDavid’s 64 in a 3.14 GPG environment (3.14/2.99 x60 = 63), and slightly ahead of Pasta’s 62 the same year. Matthews’ 60 in ‘22 would be behind (3.11/2.99 x 60= 62), but still better per game (60/73 x82= 67). Matthews’ pace (41/52 x82 = 65) in the Covid shortened season was also better (2.90/2.99 x 60 = 58). Even in 19-20, a similar scoring environment, Ovechkin was on pace for 58 before Covid shut the season down. It really doesn’t stand out from the other top goalscoring seasons the past 5 years before this one.

And if we look at the 5th place and 10th place goalscorers, we see that he doesn’t have a bigger lead over his peers than those other seasons, other than the top guys

Currently he’s out scoring 10th place by 53%

Last year, Matthews outscored 10th place by 57%

22-23, McDavid outscored 10th place by 52%

21-22, Matthews outscored 10th place by 43%

20-21, Matthews outscored 10th place by 58%

19-20, Ovechkin and Pasta outscored 10th place by 41%

It’s a very good goal scoring year, and we’ve had a number of strong goalscoring years recently that he fits in with, but it’s not better than those years just because no one else is having a very good goal scoring year. It’s a little like the 2010s for Ovechkin. He was having some strong goalscoring years but his competition was pretty weak which makes them look better than they were if we were only to compare him to the 2nd place finishers.
 
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Regal said:
It’s down slightly but we can adjust for that. 60 this year in a 2.99 GPG environment would still be behind Matthews’ 69 last year in a 3.08 GPG environment (3.08/2.99 x60= 62), slightly behind McDavid’s 64 in a 3.14 GPG environment (3.14/2.99 x60 = 63), and slightly ahead of Pasta’s 62 the same year. Matthews’ 60 in ‘22 would be behind (3.11/2.99 x 60= 62), but still better per game (60/73 x82= 67). Matthews’ pace (41/52 x82 = 65) in the Covid shortened season was also better (2.90/2.99 x 60 = 58). Even in 19-20, a similar scoring environment, Ovechkin was on pace for 58 before Covid shut the season down. It really doesn’t stand out from the other top goalscoring seasons the past 5 years before this one.

And if we look at the 5th place and 10th place goalscorers, we see that he doesn’t have a bigger lead over his peers than those other seasons, other than the top guys

Currently he’s out scoring 10th place by 53%

Last year, Matthews outscored 10th place by 57%

22-23, McDavid outscored 10th place by 52%

21-22, Matthews outscored 10th place by 43%

20-21, Matthews outscored 10th place by 58%

19-20, Ovechkin and Pasta outscored 10th place by 41%

It’s a very good goal scoring year, and we’ve had a number of strong goalscoring years recently that he fits in with, but it’s not better than those years just because no one else is having a very good goal scoring year. It’s a little like the 2010s for Ovechkin. He was having some strong goalscoring years but his competition was pretty weak which makes them look better than they were if we were only to compare him to the 2nd place finishers.
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I can only speak for myself but I wasn’t claiming this was the most impressive goal scoring season, however it very much seems on par with the best goal scoring years in recent years when adjusted for the scoring environment. If anything it would appear to strengthen his Hart trophy case.
 
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In Leon Draisaitl's past 41 games (exactly half the season), he has 68 points. That's the best in the NHL over that time (5 more points, and 14 more goals, than MacKinnon). However, in the 25-26 games to start the season, it was 39 to 32 for MacKinnon.

It's really a tough choice between them, at this point in time. But of late, even though the Oil have been struggling, Draisaitl has been very consistently hot. He is #1 in goals by a large amount, and he simultaneously leads the NHL in ES goals and PP goals (and game winning goals), which isn't common.
 
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It's interesting how close those top-4 scorers are of late. In each guy's past 82 regular season games:
133 points -- Kucherov
127 points -- MacKinnon
126 points -- MacDavid
120 points -- Draisaitl

(Not to belabor the empty-net thing, but since Kucherov and MacKinnon get way more of those than McDavid / Drai, I suspect if you remove EN points from the above list, all four are almost even.)
 
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The Panther said:
It's interesting how close those top-4 scorers are of late. In each guy's past 82 regular season games:
133 points -- Kucherov
127 points -- MacKinnon
126 points -- MacDavid
120 points -- Draisaitl

(Not to belabor the empty-net thing, but since Kucherov and MacKinnon get way more of those than McDavid / Drai, I suspect if you remove EN points from the above list, all four are almost even.)
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This is also with McDavid being visibly injured for a decent chunk of this time. What I want to know is, does he still look like he’s not 100% lately or is he beginning to look like his old self again? I haven’t caught an Oilers game in a while.
 
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authentic said:
This is also with McDavid being visibly injured for a decent chunk of this time. What I want to know is, does he still look like he’s not 100% lately or is he beginning to look like his old self again? I haven’t caught an Oilers game in a while.
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Cant say ive seen to much of oilers, but i am thinking its mental and motivational, this is pure speculation, as with other people we can only guess, but has he come to a realisation that with his current envirment he would not win? One Interview after 4 nations seem to point in that direction.
 


For me.. it's the goals. He has all the leads and all the important goals. Also, Edmonton has not been great this year.. he's been carrying us while a lot of guys have struggled to find consistency.
 
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Greatzsky 99 said:
Cant say ive seen to much of oilers, but i am thinking its mental and motivational, this is pure speculation, as with other people we can only guess, but has he come to a realisation that with his current envirment he would not win? One Interview after 4 nations seem to point in that direction.
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If you have a link with Connor McDavid saying any of that.. please post it.
 
Pip said:
I can only speak for myself but I wasn’t claiming this was the most impressive goal scoring season, however it very much seems on par with the best goal scoring years in recent years when adjusted for the scoring environment. If anything it would appear to strengthen his Hart trophy case.
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Yea, I agree, it’s definitely up there with all the recent best years. Only Matthews last year I’d say would be clearly ahead. Some people are claiming that his huge gap over the 2-3 goalscorers makes it stand out all time though. That’s what I wasn’t arguing against.
 
Greatzsky 99 said:
Cant say ive seen to much of oilers, but i am thinking its mental and motivational, this is pure speculation, as with other people we can only guess, but has he come to a realisation that with his current envirment he would not win? One Interview after 4 nations seem to point in that direction.
Click to expand...
As opposed to Matthews and company who have always known they can't win. 8 play offs don't lie.
 
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