Is Leon Draisaitl Gonna Break Nathan Mackinnons HART

[wetcoast]

Totally agree on that, I was almost shocked when I looked it up today and saw that many got MacK as favorite for the Hart. For example ESPN here or more drastically NHL.com here.
In particular the one on NHL.com is quite ridiculous, as they are acting like MacK would lead the league by 30 points or something. Those guys voted MacK on top with 71 pts, vs Drai with 47 and Helly with 38.
Stunningly clear voting for MacK, they gotta be drunk...

That's no disrespect to MacK, I highly respect what he's doing for his injury plagued team. But personally I'm putting Helly in front of MacK, and Draisaitl is my favorite, at least clearly over MacKinnon.

Only 2 points less than MacK (with one game in hand), 22 (!) goals more than MacK (13 more than anyone else), GWGs, constantly top ten in +/- (despite Oilers struggling for long stretches), on pace for 60-60, will make his fourth 50-50 (lone leading active players), impressive underlying stats, Selke mentions, and so on and forth... (BertMcDrai already mentioned a lot)

It's Drai, maybe Helly, but not MacK.

To be fair though the ESPN poll is a large cross section of actual voters and the breakdown for 1st place votes is


Mack 33%
Leon 26%
Helly 22%

I'd have it

Leon
Mack
Helly

Sorry but there is a seperate trophy for goalies and goalies usually only win if offense is down.

Quinn Hughes was up there but injuries and Eichel should get some 4th and 5th place votes as well.

 

[Regal]

Yeah they are really close...both great players...but just for fun...MacK without Makar 5v5, xGF% 48,36.
Drai without McD 5v5, xGF% 56,33%
That's the difference...and keep in mind, MacK has at minimum Rantanen/Necas while Drai played tonight with Perry/Brown and Podkolzin/RV as his regular line mates...

Offensive zone starts MacK:71,5% to Drai 61%.
Drai is often used in defensive situations, that's nothing major but it's noticeable.

Also Drai with 12 more takeaways and 20 less giveaways...that's a difference of 32 possessions...that's huge.
(Just for Info and not related: Makar with great takeaway numbers and Bouch with lots of giveaways).

Fair enough, I do like Draisaitl more this year overall, and he’s been more productive 5v5 particularly with goals too.

 

[Gnome17]

Can anyone explain to me how Mackinnon keeps polling ahead of Draisaitl?

Draisaitl leads him in goals by like 20, Draisaitl is currently on his way to win the Rocket Richard with the biggest difference in goals in the past 30 years.
They have about the same amount of points, Draisaitl is ahead if you remove empty-net points, Mackinnon is ahead if you remove OT points.
Draisaitl is on pace for a 60/60 season, something I think only 8 players or so has ever done before.
Draisaitl has been excellent defensively this year, with whispers of Selke nominations.
McDavid has not been himself this year, and Draisaitl has completely carried the Oilers all season.
Other than McDavid, Mackinnon is surrounded by a better offensive support cast.

What are the arguments that Mackinnon should win it?

 

[Perfect_Drug]

Can anyone explain to me how Mackinnon keeps polling ahead of Draisaitl?

Draisaitl leads him in goals by like 20, Draisaitl is currently on his way to win the Rocket Richard with the biggest difference in goals in the past 30 years.
They have about the same amount of points, Draisaitl is ahead if you remove empty-net points, Mackinnon is ahead if you remove OT points.
Draisaitl is on pace for a 60/60 season, something I think only 8 players or so has ever done before.
Draisaitl has been excellent defensively this year, with whispers of Selke nominations.
McDavid has not been himself this year, and Draisaitl has completely carried the Oilers all season.
Other than McDavid, Mackinnon is surrounded by a better offensive support cast.

What are the arguments that Mackinnon should win it?

I agree. It should be Drai.

but the Hart is a narrative trophy.

They just feel he's more important to his team than Drai..

 

[Regal]

I agree. It should be Drai.

but the Hart is a narrative trophy.

They just feel he's more important to his team than Drai..

It’s such a strange narrative though. Makar is having arguably a better year than McDavid this year and Rantanen/Necas have been strong linemates. Both teams haven’t had the strongest performances from their support cast. Both players are getting points on a similar percentage of their team’s goals (47% for Drai vs 46% for MacKinnon). Both have similar underlying metrics including relative to their teams. Both teams are similar in the standings. It really should just be who is better

 

[Duder54]

Seems strange that this year McDavid not even in the conversation.

If you've watched him play most nights, it's not that strange at all.

 

[a mangy Meowth]

What are the arguments that Mackinnon should win it?

I really don't know because I don't see anyone arguing for him. All I see are Oilers fans agreeing with one another for the last few pages and nothing else

 

[Filthy Dangles]

Can anyone explain to me how Mackinnon keeps polling ahead of Draisaitl?

Draisaitl leads him in goals by like 20, Draisaitl is currently on his way to win the Rocket Richard with the biggest difference in goals in the past 30 years.
They have about the same amount of points, Draisaitl is ahead if you remove empty-net points, Mackinnon is ahead if you remove OT points.
Draisaitl is on pace for a 60/60 season, something I think only 8 players or so has ever done before.
Draisaitl has been excellent defensively this year, with whispers of Selke nominations.
McDavid has not been himself this year, and Draisaitl has completely carried the Oilers all season.
Other than McDavid, Mackinnon is surrounded by a better offensive support cast.

What are the arguments that Mackinnon should win it?

I mean when you look at total ice time, Draisaitl still plays with Connor McDavid more than he does not. And especially moreso when you focus on important ice time in the games. He has the best running mate in the league by far. Even narrowing it down to 5v5 ice time, McDavid on season is his 2nd most common forward teammate after Podkolzin.

Sure MacKinnon plays with some good fwds and gets a lot of ice time with a world class dman but no one close to 97, of course.

Draisaitl slight edge with statistics and on paper, MacKinnon has a slight edge when you look at importance to his team.

It's a coinflip.

Probably gonna have to give it to whomever wins the scoring race.

 

[Gnome17]

I mean when you look at total ice time, Draisaitl still plays with Connor McDavid more than he does not. And especially moreso when you focus on important ice time in the games. He has the best running mate in the league by far. Even narrowing it down to 5v5 ice time, McDavid on season is his 2nd most common forward teammate after Podkolzin.

Sure MacKinnon plays with some good fwds and gets a lot of ice time with a world class dman but no one close to 97, of course.

Draisaitl slight edge with statistics and on paper, MacKinnon has a slight edge when you look at importance to his team.

It's a coinflip.

Probably gonna have to give it to whomever wins the scoring race.

Even so the point is that McDavid hasnt been as good as he usually is this season.
Mackinnon probably has the 2nd best running mate in Makar? Him and Mackinnon play a lot together. He had Rantanen before that and Necas now.
Mackinnon overall has a better supporting cast this year, basically every Oiler is underperforming. Except Leon. Not to mention goaltending. Leon really has had to carry his team this year.

 

[Realgud]

Draisaitl having 13 more goals than second place in the entire NHL should be more than enough for him to sweep the individual awards this season.

 

[Gnome17]

I really don't know because I don't see anyone arguing for him. All I see are Oilers fans agreeing with one another for the last few pages and nothing else

Every poll I see on Twitter has Mackinnon ahead. In the last 2 days I can specifically remember ESPN and NHL internally voted and both had Mackinnon ahead.

It’s such a strange narrative though. Makar is having arguably a better year than McDavid this year and Rantanen/Necas have been strong linemates. Both teams haven’t had the strongest performances from their support cast. Both players are getting points on a similar percentage of their team’s goals (47% for Drai vs 46% for MacKinnon). Both have similar underlying metrics including relative to their teams. Both teams are similar in the standings. It really should just be who is better

To me what stands out the most is defensive play to some degree and most importantly goals. Leon is leading Mackinnon with 22. Leon has 10 game winners. He is about to win the Maurice Richard trophy by the biggest margin in 30 years. He could stop scoring goals right now and still be a lock to win it. Nylander who is 2nd place needs 14 goals in 17 games to pass him lol.

 

[a mangy Meowth]

Every poll I see on Twitter has Mackinnon ahead. In the last 2 days I can specifically remember ESPN and NHL internally voted and both had Mackinnon ahead.

None of these are what I would call "historically accurate" in terms of predicting anything, or indicative of what most hockey writers think

 

[Filthy Dangles]

Even so the point is that McDavid hasnt been as good as he usually is this season.
Mackinnon probably has the 2nd best running mate in Makar? Him and Mackinnon play a lot together. He had Rantanen before that and Necas now.
Mackinnon overall has a better supporting cast this year, basically every Oiler is underperforming. Except Leon. Not to mention goaltending. Leon really has had to carry his team this year.

It's weird how McDavid is being knocked down in here. He's still the best player on Earth and still dictates the play and impacts the game like no one else.

You should look at Makar's numbers without MacKinnon. His 5v5 expected goals % drops to the 39%. That's not to knock Makar who's great, it's to show how important MacKinnon is.

Brock Nelson/Marty Necas/Val Nichushkin aren't leading COL to shit without MacKinnon. Yes, the same is most certainly true with EDM and Draisaitl but there's still a chance McDavid could go nuclear and drag EDM deep into the playoffs. You realistically can't say the same about COL without MacKinnon, imo. No shot.

Like I said it's a coinflip and I have no horse in the race.

 

[VainGretzky]

Draisaitl has the possibility of having 60 goals while no one else reaches 50 that alone should have him run away with it

 

[Perfect_Drug]

None of these are what I would call "historically accurate" in terms of predicting anything, or indicative of what most hockey writers think

None of the hockey media watches any west-conf games.

They echo chamber stories around the league, and vote based on that.

 

[Gnome17]

It's weird how McDavid is being knocked down in here. He's still the best player on Earth and still dictates the play and impacts the game like no one else.

You should look at Makar's numbers without MacKinnon. His 5v5 expected goals % drops to the 39%. That's not to knock Makar who's great, it's to show how important MacKinnon is.

Brock Nelson/Marty Necas/Val Nichushkin aren't leading COL to shit without MacKinnon. Yes, the same is most certainly true with EDM and Draisaitl but there's still a chance McDavid could go nuclear and drag EDM deep into the playoffs. You realistically can't say the same about COL without MacKinnon, imo. No shot.

Like I said it's a coinflip and I have no horse in the race.

Ive watched pretty much every single game McDavid and the Oilers have played the past 7 years. Missed a handful in total. I love McDavid. He has not been the same player he was in previous years. He is still great, one of the best there is, but this year hes just not at the same level as previous years. That player is still there - he has shown it in a few games this season, but overall for the first time basically ever he is a step behind a couple players.
Hopefully he can turn it on in the playoffs.

 

[Filthy Dangles]

Ive watched pretty much every single game McDavid and the Oilers have played the past 7 years. Missed a handful in total. I love McDavid. He has not been the same player he was in previous years. He is still great, one of the best there is, but this year hes just not at the same level as previous years. That player is still there - he has shown it in a few games this season, but overall for the first time basically ever he is a step behind a couple players.
Hopefully he can turn it on in the playoffs.

I know you guys have been spoiled but man Oiler fans are so dramatic when talking about him this season like he's not great anymore. Nothing is wrong with your guy, there's no decline (he's younger than these 2 guys btw) mostly the puck just hasn't gone in as much for him and he's missed some games.

Nobody is taking either of these two guys over him or anyone else over him heading into the playoffs, that i'm sure of.

 

[BertMcDrai]

It's weird how McDavid is being knocked down in here. He's still the best player on Earth and still dictates the play and impacts the game like no one else.

You should look at Makar's numbers without MacKinnon. His 5v5 expected goals % drops to the 39%. That's not to knock Makar who's great, it's to show how important MacKinnon is.

Brock Nelson/Marty Necas/Val Nichushkin aren't leading COL to shit without MacKinnon. Yes, the same is most certainly true with EDM and Draisaitl but there's still a chance McDavid could go nuclear and drag EDM deep into the playoffs. You realistically can't say the same about COL without MacKinnon, imo. No shot.

Like I said it's a coinflip and I have no horse in the race.

It seems you haven't watched a single Oilers game this year...McD is a shadow of his former self...maybe he ramps it up in the playoffs (who knows), but this would be after the season awards and is a big if. (Everybody hopes that he is sparing his energy for the big show, but it's just hope and nothing else)

Fact is the Oilers would be out of a playoff spot without Drai...he is the main driver by far this year...I guess half of us Oilers fans would be close to suicide this year without him.

The Avs as they are now (not at the start of the season) would be in a playoff spot or at least a wildcard spot without MacK...they are my favorites to win the cup...he has a very strong supporting cast while Drai has nothing but an underperforming McD (he is still good don't get me wrong), that's it...just look at the stats from Pod/RV/Perry/Brown...really not existent offense.
(Perry is good for his age).
Or look at +/-...it's getting uglier the closer you look after Drai.

 

[Gnome17]

I know you guys have been spoiled but man Oiler fans are so dramatic when talking about him this season like he's not great anymore. Nothing is wrong with your guy, there's no decline (he's younger than these 2 guys btw) mostly the puck just hasn't gone in as much for him and he's missed some games.

Nobody is taking either of these two guys over him or anyone else over him heading into the playoffs, that i'm sure of.

This will be my last response about McDavid because this thread isnt about him, I can genuinely say that its not just that the puck hasn't gone in as much for him, he is not playing the same way. He has been quiet lots of night, not getting anything done. Not as explosive and automatic most nights as he has been before. McDavid used to dangle a couple guys and set Hyman or Draisaitl up for a freebie, I can count on one hand the amount of times he's done that this season. This season is different, Draisaitl has been driving the play, creating more by himself.
Im not saying that McDavid is done or have actually declined, could be injury, sickness, fatigue or anything else. But he hasnt been himself this year, while Draisaitl has elevated.