Is Leon Draisaitl Gonna Break Nathan MacKinnon's Hart?

[LTIR]

McDavid could easily score more than 70pts in the final 28 games after scoring 71 in his first 48 games? Possible? Sure…easily? What the?

He scored 64pts after Feb08 last season at about 2ppg.
I am obviously throwing numbers as projections.. I guess I will change 'easily' to 'possibly'

 

[Toby91ca]

He scored 64pts after Feb08 last season at about 2ppg.
I am obviously throwing numbers as projections.. I guess I will change 'easily' to 'possibly'

That’s fine, but I’m willing to place a large wager that McDavid does not win scoring title this year by double digits. Not sure why the reference of after Feb 8th last year is important either. He played 32 games in that period. They only have 28 games left this year. In his final 28 games last year, he scored 52 pts and in his final 28 games the year before when he finished with 153 pts he scored 56 pts….he’s not scoring 70+ in his final 28 games this year, it’s simply not happening

 

[yeaher]

He scored 64pts after Feb08 last season at about 2ppg.
I am obviously throwing numbers as projections.. I guess I will change 'easily' to 'possibly'

I'm sure he has that extra more than half a point in him....I actually don't think he does, and even if he did I think he will focus on the playoffs more, he's won all the awards that matter...other than the Cup

 

[phrenssoa]

Draisaitl obviously matters to the Oilers, you cant produce that much without mattering. The question is does he matter more than any other player on any other team to their team? Thats what the Hart is (supposed to be) about. Again, he probably gets it because lots of points with most goals seems to be the actual criteria, but the Canucks without Hughes go from wildcard to lottery, while Oilers are still a playoff team with a healthy McDavid, hes that good. If you replace Hellebuyck with an average NHL goalie they lose a lot more than the Oilers do without Draisaitl.

I just disagree that Draisaitl matters more than any other player in the entire league to their team. He clearly is a top 5 ish important player to his team, McDavid should be right up there too, even with those underlying stats. They both are the only reason the Oilers are good, they absolutely rely on both of them. But some teams rely on ONE guy instead of two somewhat equivalent players. Those singular players are more compelling for the Hart.

Again right now Draisaitl would be my expected winner, but only because thats just how its voted on. Guy with most points, unless someone with a similar amount has a lot more goals. Bonus points if you havent won one yet or werent an asshole at the all star game.

As an Oilers fan I think you’re misrepresenting Draisaitl’s value to the Oilers. Without him this year they are most definitely not leading the division and are probably fighting for a wild card spot. He has been without a doubt their best player all year long. How does that not make him one of the most valuable players in the league, whether McDavid is on the team or not?

 

[avsfan2189]

Drai has a good case this year for sure,

but Nate is right there because of all he's had to deal with this year:

- Georgiev being the absolute worst starter in the league for a huge chunk of this season, costing them games and putting the avs down consistently 2-0 , 3-0 down to start games.

-injuries to his linemates like lekhonen, drouin, nichuskin. He's produced at this level with no consistent linemate other than Rantanen (who was more of a product of Mack anyways these last few seasons

- no 2C to speak of. Mittelstadt is a ghost this year and can't produce consistently and has lost all confidence. The guy plays 11-14 min a night if lucky

- the Rantanen drama itself and the trade. He will make Necas produce at a level you never saw in Carolina.

Mack is carrying this team (along with Makar)


If Drai goes down at least EDM has another Hart winner in McDavid. Without Mack this team is out of the playoffs COMFORTABLY.

-

 

[Osprey]

Funny stat

That doesn't really seem unusual to me. He's probably on the ice more in the final minutes when the Oilers need a goal than when they need to hang onto a lead.

 

[Fixed to Ruin]

Thread title reminds me of this

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

That doesn't really seem unusual to me. He's probably on the ice more in the final minutes when the Oilers need a goal than when they need to hang onto a lead.

false

most teams put their best players on the ice in the final minute to protect a lead....it's why MacKinnon and Rantanen have no many empty net points

 

[BertMcDrai]

Drai has a good case this year for sure,

but Nate is right there because of all he's had to deal with this year:

- Georgiev being the absolute worst starter in the league for a huge chunk of this season, costing them games and putting the avs down consistently 2-0 , 3-0 down to start games.

-injuries to his linemates like lekhonen, drouin, nichuskin. He's produced at this level with no consistent linemate other than Rantanen (who was more of a product of Mack anyways these last few seasons

- no 2C to speak of. Mittelstadt is a ghost this year and can't produce consistently and has lost all confidence. The guy plays 11-14 min a night if lucky

- the Rantanen drama itself and the trade. He will make Necas produce at a level you never saw in Carolina.

Mack is carrying this team (along with Makar)


If Drai goes down at least EDM has another Hart winner in McDavid. Without Mack this team is out of the playoffs COMFORTABLY.

-

Nearly everything you posted happens to every team every year...that must be the worst collection of excuses I ever saw...but that's not the problem.

MacK has fallen off a cliff since playing not with Rantanen and the production of Necas is exactly the same this season as before the trade and this including tonight's game where both finally got some points together.
Every star forward needs a good player to play with and MacK is not a exception (that's nothing to be ashamed of as every top forward in the league needs some line support)

 

[5 14 6 1]

That doesn't really seem unusual to me. He's probably on the ice more in the final minutes when the Oilers need a goal than when they need to hang onto a lead.

Draisaitl is always on the ice when the Oilers are defending a lead at the end of the game. The Oilers are just allergic to empty nets. They have 7 goals all season despite winning 33 games. Tied for 25th least empty netters in the league

 

[Cup or Bust]

Draisaitl is the probably the Hart leader right now but there is still a good chunk of the season left.

 

[daver]

MacK has fallen off a cliff since playing not with Rantanen and the production of Necas is exactly the same this season as before the trade and this including tonight's game where both finally got some points together.
Every star forward needs a good player to play with and MacK is not a exception (that's nothing to be ashamed of as every top forward in the league needs some line support)

He is a 1.33 PPG in his last 6 games. Pretty good for a player "falling off a cliff".

We'll see how he does the rest of the year. Keeping up a 1.50 PPG after losing a valued linemate which affected his team's chances to win this season would be something voters could be impressed with.

But Drai likely is the Hart favourite for now.

 

[phrenssoa]

Draisaitl is always on the ice when the Oilers are defending a lead at the end of the game. The Oilers are just allergic to empty nets. They have 7 goals all season despite winning 33 games. Tied for 25th least empty netters in the league

It always makes me laugh when announcers mention how good the Oilers are in one-goal games. That’s gonna happen when you can’t score on empty nets!

 

[Toby91ca]

Nearly everything you posted happens to every team every year...that must be the worst collection of excuses I ever saw...but that's not the problem.

MacK has fallen off a cliff since playing not with Rantanen and the production of Necas is exactly the same this season as before the trade and this including tonight's game where both finally got some points together.
Every star forward needs a good player to play with and MacK is not a exception (that's nothing to be ashamed of as every top forward in the league needs some line support)

MacKinnon did not fall of any cliff after trade. He’s been a bit of cool period, he had 9pts in the final 8 games before the trade…he has 8pts in the 7 games since. Also, from what I understand, he quite often played with other wingers besides Rantanen due to their depth issues

 

[Toby91ca]

false

most teams put their best players on the ice in the final minute to protect a lead....it's why MacKinnon and Rantanen have no many empty net points

Neither true or false I guess…absolutely a lot of teams or all, will have their best players out there when the other team pulls their goalie, but it’s even more the case when they are pulling their own goalie. For example, when a team pulls their goalie and trying to score, it’s not odd to see the star players out there for 2-3 straight minutes….that doesn’t happen when you are defending a lead. That’s not really the story here though, the stat is a weird one, but that’s all it is…they just haven’t scored on the empty net for some reason

 

[BertMcDrai]

MacKinnon did not fall of any cliff after trade. He’s been a bit of cool period, he had 9pts in the final 8 games before the trade…he has 8pts in the 7 games since. Also, from what I understand, he quite often played with other wingers besides Rantanen due to their depth issues

So he went from over 1,5 ppg to just over 1,0 ppg, that's falling of a cliff for a player of this pedigree...just imagine McDavid having a 85 point season without missing games...you wouldn't call this falling of a cliff?

Anyway, still lots of hockey left and everything could change...but for now he is nowhere near his level with Rantanen...and if you remember his first seasons before Rantanen and Makar, he is in the same tier right now. (Which I have already addressed isn't that bad, cause every star player needs someone near his potential to play with).

 

[Toby91ca]

So he went from over 1,5 ppg to just over 1,0 ppg, that's falling of a cliff for a player of this pedigree...just imagine McDavid having a 85 point season without missing games...you wouldn't call this falling of a cliff?

Anyway, still lots of hockey left and everything could change...but for now he is nowhere near his level with Rantanen...and if you remember his first seasons before Rantanen and Makar, he is in the same tier right now. (Which I have already addressed isn't that bad, cause every star player needs someone near his potential to play with).

Huh? 9/8 = 1.125ppg for the 8 games before the trade and 8/7 = 1.143 for the 7 games after the trade. He’s been in a lull, but it started long before the trade.

It would be like looking at a guy that had 60pts in the first 30 games, then went scoreless in 10 games, made a trade and then only scores 1pt in the following 10 games and suggest he fell of a cliff after the trade

 

[JPT]

Came here to boo the title

 

[BertMcDrai]

Huh? 9/8 = 1.125ppg for the 8 games before the trade and 8/7 = 1.143 for the 7 games after the trade. He’s been in a lull, but it started long before the trade.

It would be like looking at a guy that had 60pts in the first 30 games, then went scoreless in 10 games, made a trade and then only scores 1pt in the following 10 games and suggest he fell of a cliff after the trade

But you already said that before the trade he has played with different wingers and was in a slump...so that means he has played less with Rantanen or even not with him before the trade...so the sample size without Rantanen is bigger and big enough to make some conclusions...it seems like he is now what he is without Rantanen ( and he still has Makar and Necas).
So you are supporting my argument, thanks.

 

[Juxta Position]

That doesn't really seem unusual to me. He's probably on the ice more in the final minutes when the Oilers need a goal than when they need to hang onto a lead.

I'm not trying to be rude, but that is an incorrect assumption. Draisaitl is always on the ice in the last couple of minutes protecting a lead, which speaks to his massively improved defensive abilities this season as well.

 

[a mangy Meowth]

But you already said that before the trade he has played with different wingers and was in a slump...so that means he has played less with Rantanen or even not with him before the trade...so the sample size without Rantanen is bigger and big enough to make some conclusions...it seems like he is now what he is without Rantanen ( and he still has Makar and Necas).
So you are supporting my argument, thanks.

You seem like the kind of person who thinks he's never wrong. And you probably aren't. Bravo

 

[OilersFanatics505]

Came here to boo the title

I was saying Boo-urns

 

[VinikToWinIt]

With Kucherov scoring at the highest clip again so far this season, it’d be pretty wild (but entirely possible) to see him win the scoring race twice in a row and walk away with no Harts.

 

[Toby91ca]

I'm not trying to be rude, but that is an incorrect assumption. Draisaitl is always on the ice in the last couple of minutes protecting a lead, which speaks to his massively improved defensive abilities this season as well.

Well...my assumption, which I pointed out, was that most star players will definitely be out at the end when the other team's goalie is pulled, same goes for when their goalie is pulled. All things being equal though, I suggested they'd likely stay out longer with their net empty than the other way around as you'd get more tired trying to defend....but also, needing to stay out because you need to be there to try and score when your net is empty, you don't really need to be there against an empty net, others can pick up that slack.

Anyway, rather than assume, I just looked up the stats. Draisaitl has been on the ice, protecting the lead with the other team's net empty for a total of 19:52.....the flip to that, on with his goalie pulled, he's been out for 33:30.

 

[Toby91ca]

But you already said that before the trade he has played with different wingers and was in a slump...so that means he has played less with Rantanen or even not with him before the trade...so the sample size without Rantanen is bigger and big enough to make some conclusions...it seems like he is now what he is without Rantanen ( and he still has Makar and Necas).
So you are supporting my argument, thanks.

You make it pretty clear you aren't interested in a facts based debate.