Is Leon Draisaitl Gonna Break Nathan MacKinnon's Hart?

[Frank Drebin]

top 7 german hockey player of all time debate me

I'm still pissed Kuch got robbed of the Hart last year. Can anyone else name a season where the Art Ross winner made the playoffs but lost the Hart to another forward? I believe the only other instance is Lemieux in 91-92. Lemieux got robbed that year but maybe the one knock on him was his teammate finished 2nd in scoring. In contrast Kucherov had the highest teammate point gap in the entire league last year.

probably because he was a jerk at the asg

oh well

 

[daver]

I'm still pissed Kuch got robbed of the Hart last year. Can anyone else name a season where the Art Ross winner made the playoffs but lost the Hart to another forward? I believe the only other instance is Lemieux in 91-92. Lemieux got robbed that year but maybe the one knock on him was his teammate finished 2nd in scoring. In contrast Kucherov had the highest teammate point gap in the entire league last year.

It was four points, Nate had more goals and a much better plus/minus. He tilted the ice more for his team when he was on the ice than Kucherov did.

 

[Bobieque]

I will say this is the most consistent, mature, and 200 ft season that I've seen Drai play. Even during his last Hart season, he would have a tendency of playing "slack" for a couple of weeks at a time.

He has not had great wingers this season, but still is producing. And while +/- has a lot of warts as a stat, this season it reflects how much attention he has paid to his defensive game.

Early in the season he took (what was standard for him) a selfish slashing penalty after being pissed off. Knob actually benched him for a few shifts and I don't know if that was the big turning point...but he's been the most "responsible" player since.

I know this thread is about the Hart, but I think he should actually be in conversation for the Selke. He only PK's when it's a 5-3, but the rest of his game has been very defensively aware.

To me, even if he only gets the Richard and possibly Art Ross, this has been his best season as a player.

 

[Czechboy]

They switch every third season apparently,

I don't know why but that line gave me a good laugh. It's true.

FTR.. I still think McDavid is winning the Ross and Hart and will catch everyone.

Based on the most valuable to a team it should be Kaprizov but he got hurt and then Pasta (who has a huge lead on 2nd place) and that is the Hughes argument on the other thread. He's a D and leads his team in scoring by a good chunk.

Here is Pasta's lead

And he is (or was) leading the league in scoring in 2025.

Then you toss in the 'team didn't make playoff argument'.

So if the point was the trophy voting is silly, then totally agree!lol

 

[Regal]

This has been discussed ad nauseam in other threads but by how people vote for the Hart Draisaitl holds a real lead and has held that lead for a while.

Goals are perceived to be significantly more valuable than overall production, and no one is catching him. He won't need the Art Ross to win the Hart, just like Matthews didn't.

That said, if they voted for the Hart based on what the Hart says it's for (most valuable player to their team), then the context of who else is on that team matters. The Oilers have someone else who produces at the same level in points per game and is a better player in the same position. The gap between Drai and McD (if there even is one for Draisaitl) is much smaller than any other player in the competition.

Hughes and Hellebuyck absolutely matter more for their teams than Draisaitl does for the Oilers. But again, the argument of who should win the Hart is a different one from who will win the Hart. If things continue similarly I think Draisaitl wins it comfortably.

The Hart should be rephrased as "the forwards who had the best and most notable season". Notable including production, storylines, hype, media attention etc. Thats how it's voted on and has been for a long time.

But why is the focus only on the next best teammate instead of the other players on that team? The Oilers have turned into a team that’s pretty good at locking things down, but their high end offense is still heavily dependent on their two-headed monster. They can still be good with only one, but they’re not an elite team without both.

Also, I feel like too many are looking at it in the context of McDavid being the overall better player rather than viewing things through the lens of this season. There’s a number of comments about how “if Draisaitl was gone they’d still have McDavid”, but that assumes McDavid is going to take it up a notch over how he’s played. Yea their point per games are the same, but McDavid did miss those games. And even beyond the points, Draisaitl is the much better goal scorer this year, is playing the better all around game and has worse linemates when they’re apart.

It’s mostly noise, but McDavid has actually been outscored when on the ice 5v5 without Draisaitl (46% GF%), while Draisaitl is at 57% without McDavid. Overall, Draisaitl has a 60% GF% at 5v5, while the Oilers are just under 50% with him off the ice. He’s also factored into 46% of his team’s goals, which is slightly more than MacKinnon for most in the league. The focus for Draisaitl’s Hart bid has been more about his case for the best player this year, but I think he’s being underrated in terms of relative value.

 

[Czechboy]

he would have a tendency of playing "slack" for a couple of weeks at a time.

Totally true. The thing I like about Drai is that he does know how to defend and can bust his balls to make a great defensive play. So, if we are in a playoff game and it's we have a lead, I'm not worried about Drai losing his guy at all. Now a game in Chicago in mid february without much on the line, he probably lets Bedard slip right by and doesn't seem too upset about it.lol

So I see his occasional gaffes (which are less frequent) but I also see he is good at it when needed.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

I'm still pissed Kuch got robbed of the Hart last year. Can anyone else name a season where the Art Ross winner made the playoffs but lost the Hart to another forward? I believe the only other instance is Lemieux in 91-92. Lemieux got robbed that year but maybe the one knock on him was his teammate finished 2nd in scoring. In contrast Kucherov had the highest teammate point gap in the entire league last year.

Connor McDavid, 2021-22. Lost the Hart to Auston Matthews, who he beat by 17 points in the scoring race.

 

[Toby91ca]

I'm still pissed Kuch got robbed of the Hart last year. Can anyone else name a season where the Art Ross winner made the playoffs but lost the Hart to another forward? I believe the only other instance is Lemieux in 91-92. Lemieux got robbed that year but maybe the one knock on him was his teammate finished 2nd in scoring. In contrast Kucherov had the highest teammate point gap in the entire league last year.

Whatever....Kuch wasn't robbed. This whole notion of looking at gap between you and the next highest scorer on your team makes no sense. You have one guy that has #2 scoring on his team do pretty well, but then the rest of the team sucks.....why would that be a knock on him vs. a guy that has a bigger gap from #2 on his team but the rest of the players on that team are more balanced?

Anyway, to answer your question, it's happened several times where the Art Ross winner made the playoffs and he lost the Hart to another forward. I just checked from 1990 on, so I'm sure it's happened many more times as well....but since then: 1990, 1991, 1995, 2001, 2011, 2022, 2024

 

[Regal]

I'm still pissed Kuch got robbed of the Hart last year. Can anyone else name a season where the Art Ross winner made the playoffs but lost the Hart to another forward? I believe the only other instance is Lemieux in 91-92. Lemieux got robbed that year but maybe the one knock on him was his teammate finished 2nd in scoring. In contrast Kucherov had the highest teammate point gap in the entire league last year.

Many times

McDavid in ‘22
D.Sedin in ‘11
Malkin in ‘09
Jagr in ‘01
Jagr in ‘95
Lemieux in ‘92
Gretzky in ‘91
Gretzky in ‘90
Lemieux in ‘89
Lafleur in ‘76
Esposito in ‘73

The year was pretty similar to ‘95. You had a close Art Ross race where the Hart went to the guy who was considered the better all around player, who also had some voter bias (Lindros for being the “next one”, MacKinnon for being close but not winning previously). Jagr and Lindros tied in points (with the tiebreaker going to Jagr), but ostensibly, a 144-140 win is a negligible lead.

 

[Toby91ca]

Many times

McDavid in ‘22
D.Sedin in ‘11
Malkin in ‘09
Jagr in ‘01
Jagr in ‘95
Lemieux in ‘92
Gretzky in ‘91
Gretzky in ‘90
Lemieux in ‘89
Lafleur in ‘76
Esposito in ‘73

I missed 2009 for Malkin (left Lemieux 1992 off my list as it was already noted)....but for some reason I thought Malkin won the Hart that year....probably went I was scanning I saw the two awards (Conn Smythe)....didn't look close enough, but yeah.....it happens with some regularity....not sure why people think Art Ross = Hart as well, otherwise you are robbed.

 

[Sombastate]

I have a guy in my fantasy league Discord who argued with me about Rantanen being "much better" than Drai. I would love Drai to get the Hart, Art Ross, Richard and some Selke votes just to really rub his nose in it.

Besides personal vengeance, Drai is just a phenomenal hockey player.

 

[qc14]

Hughes has to drag his team into the playoffs to even be considered. Or so I have been told in other years by the sports media.

If he does it will be the single biggest carry job since Hall in NJ

 

[BertMcDrai]

Yes

That will not happen...I can't see McD outscoring Drai by this much over such a small time.

 

[olli]

All three teams (Tampa, Colorado and Edmonton) will probably be fighting for position until very close to the end of the season. Also can’t forget about McDavid who’s still lurking 10 points back but if he really heats up that would lower Drais chances for the hart. I would love to see Drai stack up the Ross, Hart and Rocket but I think the narrative in the media is once again strong with MacKinnon because of all of the injuries the avs have gone through and because they lost Rantanen. But at least this year nobody is “due” for the hart.


Hughes, Hellebuyck and Pasta would be the finalists if the hart actually went to the most valuable player to their team though.

 

[Juxta Position]

- you can’t have other good players on your team
- you’re not allowed to score on the power play
- or on empty nets
- good guys only, no villains
- no injuries allowed
- recency bias is fine; end of the season >>>

What else am I missing here? Just trying to make an informed decision.

It has to be "your turn" as well.

 

[LTIR]

That will not happen...I can't see McD outscoring Drai by this much over such a small time.

It's not a small time, 28 games can pretty much double McD's points.
He scores over 2ppg hostorically near the end and could easily finish with over 140 this year.
10 pt lead can be erased in a week when it comes to McDavid.

 

[BertMcDrai]

It's not a small time, 28 games can pretty much double McD's points.
He scores over 2ppg hostorically near the end and could easily finish with over 140 this year.
10 pt lead can be erased in a week when it comes to McDavid.

I can't see it happening this year, especially the way Drai is playing.

 

[DownIsTheNewUp]

Many times

McDavid in ‘22
D.Sedin in ‘11
Malkin in ‘09
Jagr in ‘01
Jagr in ‘95
Lemieux in ‘92
Gretzky in ‘91
Gretzky in ‘90
Lemieux in ‘89
Lafleur in ‘76
Esposito in ‘73

The year was pretty similar to ‘95. You had a close Art Ross race where the Hart went to the guy who was considered the better all around player, who also had some voter bias (Lindros for being the “next one”, MacKinnon for being close but not winning previously). Jagr and Lindros tied in points (with the tiebreaker going to Jagr), but ostensibly, a 144-140 win is a negligible lead.

You are correct and it has happened more than I realized. I also meant the include the criteria of the Hart winner not leading the league in goals which makes a considerable cut to the list.

If the criteria is Art Ross winner who made the playoffs but lost the Hart to another forward who didn't score the most goals, I believe it becomes:

Kucherov in '24
Jagr in ‘01
Jagr in ‘95 (Lindros won Hart and was tied with Jagr for points, Jagr won Art Ross on tie breaker)
Lemieux in '92
Gretzky in ‘90
Lemieux in ‘89
Lafleur in ‘76
Esposito in ‘73

What's interesting is all of these guys won a Hart at another time and almost all of them before this "snub". So voter fatigue is probably a thing as is giving to someone "who is due".

 

[Coffey]

Connor McDavid, 2021-22. Lost the Hart to Auston Matthews, who he beat by 17 points in the scoring race.

That was a fun thread.

 

[Master P]

Oh, points matter?

 

[Coffey]

I have a guy in my fantasy league Discord who argued with me about Rantanen being "much better" than Drai.

Are you in that league to make easy money against handicapped people?




It should be Drais this year.

Mack is an ENP merchant.
Kuch is a PP merchant.
Hughes won't make the playoffs.

Ezpz for the Deutschland Dangler

 

[1989]

I feel like MacKinnon got the trophy he cares about the most while the peanut gallery, including yours truly, rabbles on about the other achievements that are merely "nice-to-haves".

 

[5 14 6 1]

Draisaitl leads the league in:

Goals
Points
Even Strength Goals
Even Strength Points
Game Winning Goals
Game tying or go ahead points


He's 55% on faceoffs, +27 (next best Oiler forward is +15), he had 11 points in 6 games without McDavid this year (4-2 record) and he's playing easily the best two way hockey of his career.

Oh and he only has 2 empty netters all season.

The big German is on another level and is a much better player than McDavid this year, especially defensively.

 

[Ghost of Murph]

Drai has been hands-down the best all-around player in the NHL so far this season. The numbers in many categories show that and the eye test shows that. Seems like it's taking Olympic level mental gymnastics to say otherwise.

 

[Regal]

You are correct and it has happened more than I realized. I also meant the include the criteria of the Hart winner not leading the league in goals which makes a considerable cut to the list.

If the criteria is Art Ross winner who made the playoffs but lost the Hart to another forward who didn't score the most goals, I believe it becomes:

Kucherov in '24
Jagr in ‘01
Jagr in ‘95 (Lindros won Hart and was tied with Jagr for points, Jagr won Art Ross on tie breaker)
Lemieux in '92
Gretzky in ‘90
Lemieux in ‘89
Lafleur in ‘76
Esposito in ‘73

What's interesting is all of these guys won a Hart at another time and almost all of them before this "snub". So voter fatigue is probably a thing as is giving to someone "who is due".

I think that’s certainly part of it. Would have been interesting to see what would have happened if neither had won before (say if Kucherov still had his big 18-19 season but someone else had a better year). I don’t believe Kucherov was robbed as they were both fully deserving, but there was certainly some extra push in MacKinnon’s favour. It’s just unfortunate for Kucherov that they both had seasons that would have won the Hart most years.

And as it stands for this year I think MacKinnon winning last year makes it more likely Draisaitl will beat him for the Hart even if MacKinnon ends up winning the Art Ross. So this year might end up being added to the original list. Though, Draisaitl looks likely to have the most goals, so not the second list.