Is Johansson our 4th long-term/core top-4 D (Mo, Ed, ASP.. AJo?)

[ElProfessor]

In what f***ed up alternate universe is Chychrun pulling $9M/yr?

I was just being as pessimistic as possible when doing the math lol...14M for Marner/Rantanen and 9M for Chychrun is possible... though I'd hope it'd be more like 13M and 8M.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Here’s my take:

AlJo has looked great in a very small sample size with Edvisson so far. Is it all on him, or is Simon the type of player who makes his partners look better? It’s way too soon to know for sure. Certainly premature to assume he can handle top pairing minutes with soul-crushing deployment like Seider does.

Also consider that not long ago he was not even rated as highly even by us as some of his peers like Wallinder, Buium, and Tuomisto. All those players were expected to be better than him and still may be. We can’t keep them all if they start hitting. That’s part of the reason we traded Andrew Gibson, too many guys already ahead.

My thoughts, I think if he keeps up this play he will price himself out of Detroit. Edvinsson will be due for a big raise in the 8-9M range or more. ASP will need big money too if he’s what we hope he will be. Paying 4 defenseman big dollars isn’t ideal and probably not the best. Even with the cap going up by almost 20M the next 2 years we have to be smart. AlJo is a prime guy who can get excellent trade value while having in-house cheap replacements already set up. He’s not a core guy imo and is probably long term best utilized trading for a top 6 forward than paying a big contract to keep around as a highly paid 4D behind Seider, Edvinsson, and ASP. If we are paying Seider 8.55M, and Edvinsson and ASP with the high cap probably 8.5-9.5M that’s already 25.5M-27.5M of the cap tied up in 3 defenseman. Do we really want to invest another 6-7M more for a 4D. Even at a projected cap of 113.5M for 2027-28 that’s around 30% of the cap on just your top 4 D. Then you have to figure Larkin, Raymond, whichever goalie hits between Cossa and Augustine, Kasper will need to be paid if he keeps it up, Danielson if he is what we hope he will be, DBC……. Cap runs out really fast and players will cost a LOT more starting this offseason knowing that all the teams will have loads of cap to spend for the next 4 years.

Ed isn’t getting Seider money unless he becomes a 45+ point two way monster. Hes not there yet. 6.5 to 7.5 for a 35 point lockdown defender like Ed? I can stomach that.

Mo 8.55
Ed 7
ASP 6.5-7 (if he’s a 50ish point offensive defender)
AlJo 4 ((as a defensive stopper)

With the way the cap is going they can spend an extra 10-14 mil on building what could be the best defensive group in the league.

 

[ElProfessor]

Here’s my take:

AlJo has looked great in a very small sample size with Edvisson so far. Is it all on him, or is Simon the type of player who makes his partners look better? It’s way too soon to know for sure. Certainly premature to assume he can handle top pairing minutes with soul-crushing deployment like Seider does.

Also consider that not long ago he was not even rated as highly even by us as some of his peers like Wallinder, Buium, and Tuomisto. All those players were expected to be better than him and still may be. We can’t keep them all if they start hitting. That’s part of the reason we traded Andrew Gibson, too many guys already ahead.

My thoughts, I think if he keeps up this play he will price himself out of Detroit. Edvinsson will be due for a big raise in the 8-9M range or more. ASP will need big money too if he’s what we hope he will be. Paying 4 defenseman big dollars isn’t ideal and probably not the best. Even with the cap going up by almost 20M the next 2 years we have to be smart. AlJo is a prime guy who can get excellent trade value while having in-house cheap replacements already set up. He’s not a core guy imo and is probably long term best utilized trading for a top 6 forward than paying a big contract to keep around as a highly paid 4D behind Seider, Edvinsson, and ASP. If we are paying Seider 8.55M, and Edvinsson and ASP with the high cap probably 8.5-9.5M that’s already 25.5M-27.5M of the cap tied up in 3 defenseman. Do we really want to invest another 6-7M more for a 4D. Even at a projected cap of 113.5M for 2027-28 that’s around 30% of the cap on just your top 4 D. Then you have to figure Larkin, Raymond, whichever goalie hits between Cossa and Augustine, Kasper will need to be paid if he keeps it up, Danielson if he is what we hope he will be, DBC……. Cap runs out really fast and players will cost a LOT more starting this offseason knowing that all the teams will have loads of cap to spend for the next 4 years.

I disagree.

AJo could be one of the top-10 D in the league through his prime and not make so much as a single All-Star snub list. He's never going to be a big point producer. He's small. He's going to be on a team with 2 or 3 guys getting Norris votes every yr. Aside from ECF and SCF playoff series...he'll probably hardly be noticed in the hockey world apart from die hard Red Wings fans.

Edvinsson probably signs a 7-8yr extension just below Seider's # next yr (which will be very reasonable over time). If ASP really hits, when his contract comes, it'll probably be right at about the same level (again, very reasonable over time). And when ASP's contract comes up, SY will probably get him to sign on the dotted line for something like 4-5M/yr over 5-6yrs...very reasonable.

Ed isn’t getting Seider money unless he becomes a 45+ point two way monster. Hes not there yet. 6.5 to 7.5 for a 35 point lockdown defender like Ed? I can stomach that.

Mo 8.55
Ed 7
ASP 6.5-7 (if he’s a 50ish point offensive defender)
AlJo 4 ((as a defensive stopper)

With the way the cap is going they can spend an extra 10-14 mil on building what could be the best defensive group in the league.

100%.

And finding a decent guy w a slapshot to put next to Seider shouldn't be too hard either.

And hard to imagine one of Wallinder/Buium/Tuomiston/AnJo doesn't turn into at least a decent 3rd pair.

 

[GarlicbreadTB]

Based on absolute nothing. But Edvinsson strikes me like someone who would sign a team friendly long term contract.

 

[ElProfessor]

Kasper has been a top 5 performing forward every night he’s been on that top line and gives them a defensive ace they never had.

AlJo has been a top 3 defenseman just about every night he’s been paired with Edvinsson.

They’ve been legitimately good as rookies and you’re talking about using them as trade bait.

…What the f***?



Same thing was happening when Seider played with Walman.

I pushed against it before, but maybe Chychrun WOULD be a good partner for Mo…

We'll never be able to talk ourselves into thinking trading Walman (or Maatta, for that matter) wasn't a mistake. But I will say this..

Like Chiarot, Walman was never able to really capitalize on all those wide-open slap-shot looks he got playing next to Seider. He had a very hard shot, but like Hronek, very very rarely managed to find the twine.

 

[FissionFire]

I disagree.

AJo could be one of the top-10 D in the league through his prime and not make so much as a single All-Star snub list. He's never going to be a big point producer. He's small. He's going to be on a team with 2 or 3 guys getting Norris votes every yr. Aside from ECF and SCF playoff series...he'll probably hardly be noticed in the hockey world apart from die hard Red Wings fans.

Edvinsson probably signs a 7-8yr extension just below Seider's # next yr (which will be very reasonable over time). If ASP really hits, when his contract comes, it'll probably be right at about the same level (again, very reasonable over time). And when ASP's contract comes up, SY will probably get him to sign on the dotted line for something like 4-5M/yr over 5-6yrs...very reasonable.



100%.

And finding a decent guy w a slapshot to put next to Seider shouldn't be too hard either.

And hard to imagine one of Wallinder/Buium/Tuomiston/AnJo doesn't turn into at least a decent 3rd pair.

Wishful thinking on that number. Players aren’t stupid and see the exploding cap too. Why sign for a smaller number now? Just bridge and collect later.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

We'll never be able to talk ourselves into thinking trading Walman (or Maatta, for that matter) wasn't a mistake. But I will say this..

Like Chiarot, Walman was never able to really capitalize on all those wide-open slap-shot looks he got playing next to Seider. He had a very hard shot, but like Hronek, very very rarely managed to find the twine.

9 goals in 63 games 2023 (t 34th best)and 12 in 63 games 2024 (14th best). That’s pretty good for a defender.

I do agree that Mo needs a partner that can create though. Ben and Wally weren’t really playmakers. The team’s offense as a whole would see a huge jump if Mo had a creative partner that could get 40+ points.

 

[ElProfessor]

Wishful thinking on that number. Players aren’t stupid and see the exploding cap too. Why sign for a smaller number now? Just bridge and collect later.

Different culture. Swede's are generally loyal and thankful to organizations who develop them and treat them well. And value long-term stability and happiness > going for absolute top-dollar like most north american athletes.

They always secretly feel like they've gotten away with robbing a bank not giving 90% of their top-earner class pay checks back to the govt as well.

9 goals in 63 games 2023 (t 34th best)and 12 in 63 games 2024 (14th best). That’s pretty good for a defender.

I do agree that Mo needs a partner that can create though. Ben and Wally weren’t really playmakers. The team’s offense as a whole would see a huge jump if Mo had a creative partner that could get 40+ points.

I'll settle for a solid defender who handles the puck well enough not to turn it over in the D-Zone, and who can hammer home some of the open point looks he'll get.

Asking for more will cost more.

But I would be on board w a Chychrun signing

 

[norrisnick]

Ed isn’t getting Seider money unless he becomes a 45+ point two way monster. Hes not there yet. 6.5 to 7.5 for a 35 point lockdown defender like Ed? I can stomach that.

Mo 8.55
Ed 7
ASP 6.5-7 (if he’s a 50ish point offensive defender)
AlJo 4 ((as a defensive stopper)

With the way the cap is going they can spend an extra 10-14 mil on building what could be the best defensive group in the league.

Take out the PP and Ed is outscoring Mo 20 to 16.

 

[FissionFire]

Just to give you an idea why I think Simon signing below Seider is wishful thinking, if projections for the cap over the next 3 years hold true then in 3 years Seider’s 8.55M cap today would be the equivalent of 11M in 3 years.

I think people underestimate just how much the cap is exploding and how much contracts will skyrocket as a result. Every single team will have cap space to sign big UFAs or make big offer sheets.

 

[Chris Langlois]

Take out the PP and Ed is outscoring Mo 20 to 16.

This. Honestly that's the one thing about coach Todd that bothers me. Not using ed on the pp over gustufson. Ed clearly has lots of skill to help improve the 2nd pp unit. Long term i think ed would be more effective than seider on the pp (ASP will be 1st pp).

 

[FissionFire]

I’d rather Ed play more minutes ES than Gus, especially when the PP is doing fine already.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Take out the PP and Ed is outscoring Mo 20 to 16.

Mo is also eating the harder matchups.

 

[cvaicunas]

He already Is a great partner for Ed.. in the middle of a heated playoff chase.. as a rookie.

I don't think it's really even debatable that he couldn't *eventually* be a great partner for Mo on the 1st pair. Hell, he could probably be Mo's partner tomorrow (on his natural side, with a better partner) and be even better than he is w Ed.

...

As far as ASP goes, I think he'll be our #2 out of camp next yr. He may even get some games in Detroit this yr once his season's over.


He's more hyped than any defensive prospect we've had in the last 30yrs besides Seider. More hyped than Edvinsson even.

Don't make people read that name. Or Kindl. Or Cholowski.

Nothing's guaranteed...but come on...leave that at home.

Right, but then he is going to be seeing increased competition/role. If the Wings were at home I'm sure the team would have prioritized Seider being on the ice against Mcdavid. The Oilers were actively seeking to get Mcdrai out there against our fourth and third lines. I noticed that happen at least 4 times the other night.

 

[ElProfessor]

This. Honestly that's the one thing about coach Todd that bothers me. Not using ed on the pp over gustufson. Ed clearly has lots of skill to help improve the 2nd pp unit. Long term i think ed would be more effective than seider on the pp (ASP will be 1st pp).

I'd like to see Johansson getting PP2 mins actually...he was a puck-moving machine on the PP in GR

Just to give you an idea why I think Simon signing below Seider is wishful thinking, if projections for the cap over the next 3 years hold true then in 3 years Seider’s 8.55M cap today would be the equivalent of 11M in 3 years.

I think people underestimate just how much the cap is exploding and how much contracts will skyrocket as a result. Every single team will have cap space to sign big UFAs or make big offer sheets.

Ed will sign for less AAV than Seider for the same reason Seider and Raymond signed for less AAV than Larkin. There is a system that our players and their agents respect.

 

[ElProfessor]

How would you guys like signing Gavrikov to play next to Seider on the 1st pair? Cheaper than Chychrun, Pettersson, Provorov. Best defensive player of the bunch, and by far the most physical. 6'3, 220. Good skater. Little old at 29, but a reasonable 3-4yr contract wouldn't be bad.

I'd like someone w a better shot next to Seider, as discussed above, but you can't have everything. He's decent enough moving the puck...and decent enough to not turn it over in the DZone when he gets it.

Gavrikov-Seider
Edvinsson-Johansson
Chiarot-ASP

PP1: ASP; PP2: Seider..........PK1: Gavrikov-Seider; PK2: Edvinsson-Chiarot

Vladislav Gavrikov Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Title | Hockey-Reference.com

Checkout the latest stats of Vladislav Gavrikov. Get info about his position, age, height, weight, trade, draft and more on Hockey-Reference.com

www.hockey-reference.com

 

[norrisnick]

Mo is also eating the harder matchups.

Marginally. I will give Mo extra credit for being paired with Chia instead of Albert.

Another fun chart. Here are the D scoring leaders that don't have PP production.

 

[Coach Reggie Dunlop]

How would you guys like signing Gavrikov to play next to Seider on the 1st pair? Cheaper than Chychrun, Pettersson, Provorov. Best defensive player of the bunch, and by far the most physical. 6'3, 220. Good skater. Little old at 29, but a reasonable 3-4yr contract wouldn't be bad.

I'd like someone w a better shot next to Seider, as discussed above, but you can't have everything. He's decent enough moving the puck...and decent enough to not turn it over in the DZone when he gets it.

Gavrikov-Seider
Edvinsson-Johansson
Chiarot-ASP

PP1: ASP; PP2: Seider..........PK1: Gavrikov-Seider; PK2: Edvinsson-Chiarot

Vladislav Gavrikov Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Title | Hockey-Reference.com

Checkout the latest stats of Vladislav Gavrikov. Get info about his position, age, height, weight, trade, draft and more on Hockey-Reference.com

www.hockey-reference.com

Gavrikov isn’t that physical. 21 hits in 50 games. He’s a decent player but I have a feeling someone will overpay for him in FA. Pass.

 

[Coach Reggie Dunlop]

Marginally. I will give Mo extra credit for being paired with Chia instead of Albert.

View attachment 971543

Another fun chart. Here are the D scoring leaders that don't have PP production.

View attachment 971546

I still don’t get how people seem to say chariot isn’t that bad. He absolutely sucks. He’s a third line player, and I don’t even think he’s a 3rd pair defenseman on a good team.

 

[FMichael]

i'm not necessarily saying i want it to happen. but if we want to add something like a quality 2c or top 4 d, which one of larkin/raymond/seider/edvinsson/kasper/johansson are you willing to trade?

I’d rather trade actual draft picks instead of guys who are playing very well at the NHL level.

I honestly find it baffling when the guys we drafted - are coming around and playing keys minutes for us - all of a sudden are deemed trade bait.

 

[Hazy Little Thing]

Because Johansson is 24 years old with 30 career games under his belt. The idea that we can start penciling him as a future #1 is ridiculous.

Who is penciling him in as a future #1? We had Mo and Ed, we aren’t trading either of them so there’s no chance for AlJo to be our #1.

 

[Hazy Little Thing]

He already Is a great partner for Ed.. in the middle of a heated playoff chase.. as a rookie.

I don't think it's really even debatable that he couldn't *eventually* be a great partner for Mo on the 1st pair. Hell, he could probably be Mo's partner tomorrow (on his natural side, with a better partner) and be even better than he is w Ed.

...

As far as ASP goes, I think he'll be our #2 out of camp next yr. He may even get some games in Detroit this yr once his season's over.


He's more hyped than any defensive prospect we've had in the last 30yrs besides Seider. More hyped than Edvinsson even.

Don't make people read that name. Or Kindl. Or Cholowski.

Nothing's guaranteed...but come on...leave that at home.

There’s no way ASP is more hyped than Ed. ASP has been hyped to be our future second pairing RD and PP1. Edvinsson has been hyped to be better than our young #1D

 

[jkutswings]

Yeah, it sucked that we picked later than we should have in every single draft, but when they start doing re-drafts of those years how high do you think Seider is going to go? Raymond? Ed? I've said it before, but I wouldn't be surprised if we look back and find out we ended up with a top3 guy from several of these drafts. Even Kasper is looking really good lately.

I'm not against making moves, not at all, but we also have a lot of kids trending in the right direction, and a bunch playing in Detroit right now that are looking really good. It's a good problem to have.

I agree with everything you said. But:

1) Even with the foundational aspect of the kids doing well, the roster still does have some dead weight of varying ages. I don't see any of Holl, Copp, Compher, Kane, Tarasenko, Rasmussen, or Veleno being meaningful when the real winning begins.
2) It's not realistic to expect ALL the prospects to work out. So don't make moves for the sake of making moves, but always be vigilant for where packaging a few "maybes" into a "yes" that has a similar or better ceiling is a good thing. (And from a financial aspect, it's great to have all these cost controlled whipper snappers at the moment, but we also don't want half the team coming up for raises in the same 12-24 month timeframe. It's ok to sprinkle another 1-2 long term deals in there soon.)

 

[PelagicJoe]

Right now, Johansson is the future 3rd pairing LD. He may eventually work up to the 2nd pair if things keep going well.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

Right now, Johansson is the future 3rd pairing LD. He may eventually work up to the 2nd pair if things keep going well.

I think this is probably right. Long term I doubt we see both Aljo and ASP in the top four. We have room for one of them in the top 4 but not both I suspect.

I am extremely happy with how Aljo has played since the coaching change. I have been the biggest Aljo bear on this board and I am extremely happy that he is proving me wrong. That said, I encourage people to be cautious. I sense people are judging him against the crap on our roster, and not league standards. I see him as more of a number 5 on a really competitive roster. Everything is relative in life. We are all accustomed to watching four really bad defensemen a night. The least ugly girl is still ugly.