Is Johansson our 4th long-term/core top-4 D (Mo, Ed, ASP.. AJo?)

[ElProfessor]

In what f***ed up alternate universe is Chychrun pulling $9M/yr?

I was just being as pessimistic as possible when doing the math lol...14M for Marner/Rantanen and 9M for Chychrun is possible... though I'd hope it'd be more like 13M and 8M.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Here’s my take:

AlJo has looked great in a very small sample size with Edvisson so far. Is it all on him, or is Simon the type of player who makes his partners look better? It’s way too soon to know for sure. Certainly premature to assume he can handle top pairing minutes with soul-crushing deployment like Seider does.

Also consider that not long ago he was not even rated as highly even by us as some of his peers like Wallinder, Buium, and Tuomisto. All those players were expected to be better than him and still may be. We can’t keep them all if they start hitting. That’s part of the reason we traded Andrew Gibson, too many guys already ahead.

My thoughts, I think if he keeps up this play he will price himself out of Detroit. Edvinsson will be due for a big raise in the 8-9M range or more. ASP will need big money too if he’s what we hope he will be. Paying 4 defenseman big dollars isn’t ideal and probably not the best. Even with the cap going up by almost 20M the next 2 years we have to be smart. AlJo is a prime guy who can get excellent trade value while having in-house cheap replacements already set up. He’s not a core guy imo and is probably long term best utilized trading for a top 6 forward than paying a big contract to keep around as a highly paid 4D behind Seider, Edvinsson, and ASP. If we are paying Seider 8.55M, and Edvinsson and ASP with the high cap probably 8.5-9.5M that’s already 25.5M-27.5M of the cap tied up in 3 defenseman. Do we really want to invest another 6-7M more for a 4D. Even at a projected cap of 113.5M for 2027-28 that’s around 30% of the cap on just your top 4 D. Then you have to figure Larkin, Raymond, whichever goalie hits between Cossa and Augustine, Kasper will need to be paid if he keeps it up, Danielson if he is what we hope he will be, DBC……. Cap runs out really fast and players will cost a LOT more starting this offseason knowing that all the teams will have loads of cap to spend for the next 4 years.

Ed isn’t getting Seider money unless he becomes a 45+ point two way monster. Hes not there yet. 6.5 to 7.5 for a 35 point lockdown defender like Ed? I can stomach that.

Mo 8.55
Ed 7
ASP 6.5-7 (if he’s a 50ish point offensive defender)
AlJo 4 ((as a defensive stopper)

With the way the cap is going they can spend an extra 10-14 mil on building what could be the best defensive group in the league.

 

[ElProfessor]

Here’s my take:

AlJo has looked great in a very small sample size with Edvisson so far. Is it all on him, or is Simon the type of player who makes his partners look better? It’s way too soon to know for sure. Certainly premature to assume he can handle top pairing minutes with soul-crushing deployment like Seider does.

Also consider that not long ago he was not even rated as highly even by us as some of his peers like Wallinder, Buium, and Tuomisto. All those players were expected to be better than him and still may be. We can’t keep them all if they start hitting. That’s part of the reason we traded Andrew Gibson, too many guys already ahead.

My thoughts, I think if he keeps up this play he will price himself out of Detroit. Edvinsson will be due for a big raise in the 8-9M range or more. ASP will need big money too if he’s what we hope he will be. Paying 4 defenseman big dollars isn’t ideal and probably not the best. Even with the cap going up by almost 20M the next 2 years we have to be smart. AlJo is a prime guy who can get excellent trade value while having in-house cheap replacements already set up. He’s not a core guy imo and is probably long term best utilized trading for a top 6 forward than paying a big contract to keep around as a highly paid 4D behind Seider, Edvinsson, and ASP. If we are paying Seider 8.55M, and Edvinsson and ASP with the high cap probably 8.5-9.5M that’s already 25.5M-27.5M of the cap tied up in 3 defenseman. Do we really want to invest another 6-7M more for a 4D. Even at a projected cap of 113.5M for 2027-28 that’s around 30% of the cap on just your top 4 D. Then you have to figure Larkin, Raymond, whichever goalie hits between Cossa and Augustine, Kasper will need to be paid if he keeps it up, Danielson if he is what we hope he will be, DBC……. Cap runs out really fast and players will cost a LOT more starting this offseason knowing that all the teams will have loads of cap to spend for the next 4 years.

I disagree.

AJo could be one of the top-10 D in the league through his prime and not make so much as a single All-Star snub list. He's never going to be a big point producer. He's small. He's going to be on a team with 2 or 3 guys getting Norris votes every yr. Aside from ECF and SCF playoff series...he'll probably hardly be noticed in the hockey world apart from die hard Red Wings fans.

Edvinsson probably signs a 7-8yr extension just below Seider's # next yr (which will be very reasonable over time). If ASP really hits, when his contract comes, it'll probably be right at about the same level (again, very reasonable over time). And when ASP's contract comes up, SY will probably get him to sign on the dotted line for something like 4-5M/yr over 5-6yrs...very reasonable.

Ed isn’t getting Seider money unless he becomes a 45+ point two way monster. Hes not there yet. 6.5 to 7.5 for a 35 point lockdown defender like Ed? I can stomach that.

Mo 8.55
Ed 7
ASP 6.5-7 (if he’s a 50ish point offensive defender)
AlJo 4 ((as a defensive stopper)

With the way the cap is going they can spend an extra 10-14 mil on building what could be the best defensive group in the league.

100%.

And finding a decent guy w a slapshot to put next to Seider shouldn't be too hard either.

And hard to imagine one of Wallinder/Buium/Tuomiston/AnJo doesn't turn into at least a decent 3rd pair.

 

[GarlicbreadTB]

Based on absolute nothing. But Edvinsson strikes me like someone who would sign a team friendly long term contract.

 

[ElProfessor]

Kasper has been a top 5 performing forward every night he’s been on that top line and gives them a defensive ace they never had.

AlJo has been a top 3 defenseman just about every night he’s been paired with Edvinsson.

They’ve been legitimately good as rookies and you’re talking about using them as trade bait.

…What the f***?



Same thing was happening when Seider played with Walman.

I pushed against it before, but maybe Chychrun WOULD be a good partner for Mo…

We'll never be able to talk ourselves into thinking trading Walman (or Maatta, for that matter) wasn't a mistake. But I will say this..

Like Chiarot, Walman was never able to really capitalize on all those wide-open slap-shot looks he got playing next to Seider. He had a very hard shot, but like Hronek, very very rarely managed to find the twine.

 

[FissionFire]

I disagree.

AJo could be one of the top-10 D in the league through his prime and not make so much as a single All-Star snub list. He's never going to be a big point producer. He's small. He's going to be on a team with 2 or 3 guys getting Norris votes every yr. Aside from ECF and SCF playoff series...he'll probably hardly be noticed in the hockey world apart from die hard Red Wings fans.

Edvinsson probably signs a 7-8yr extension just below Seider's # next yr (which will be very reasonable over time). If ASP really hits, when his contract comes, it'll probably be right at about the same level (again, very reasonable over time). And when ASP's contract comes up, SY will probably get him to sign on the dotted line for something like 4-5M/yr over 5-6yrs...very reasonable.



100%.

And finding a decent guy w a slapshot to put next to Seider shouldn't be too hard either.

And hard to imagine one of Wallinder/Buium/Tuomiston/AnJo doesn't turn into at least a decent 3rd pair.

Wishful thinking on that number. Players aren’t stupid and see the exploding cap too. Why sign for a smaller number now? Just bridge and collect later.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

We'll never be able to talk ourselves into thinking trading Walman (or Maatta, for that matter) wasn't a mistake. But I will say this..

Like Chiarot, Walman was never able to really capitalize on all those wide-open slap-shot looks he got playing next to Seider. He had a very hard shot, but like Hronek, very very rarely managed to find the twine.

9 goals in 63 games 2023 (t 34th best)and 12 in 63 games 2024 (14th best). That’s pretty good for a defender.

I do agree that Mo needs a partner that can create though. Ben and Wally weren’t really playmakers. The team’s offense as a whole would see a huge jump if Mo had a creative partner that could get 40+ points.

 

[ElProfessor]

Wishful thinking on that number. Players aren’t stupid and see the exploding cap too. Why sign for a smaller number now? Just bridge and collect later.

Different culture. Swede's are generally loyal and thankful to organizations who develop them and treat them well. And value long-term stability and happiness > going for absolute top-dollar like most north american athletes.

They always secretly feel like they've gotten away with robbing a bank not giving 90% of their top-earner class pay checks back to the govt as well.

9 goals in 63 games 2023 (t 34th best)and 12 in 63 games 2024 (14th best). That’s pretty good for a defender.

I do agree that Mo needs a partner that can create though. Ben and Wally weren’t really playmakers. The team’s offense as a whole would see a huge jump if Mo had a creative partner that could get 40+ points.

I'll settle for a solid defender who handles the puck well enough not to turn it over in the D-Zone, and who can hammer home some of the open point looks he'll get.

Asking for more will cost more.

But I would be on board w a Chychrun signing

 

[norrisnick]

Ed isn’t getting Seider money unless he becomes a 45+ point two way monster. Hes not there yet. 6.5 to 7.5 for a 35 point lockdown defender like Ed? I can stomach that.

Mo 8.55
Ed 7
ASP 6.5-7 (if he’s a 50ish point offensive defender)
AlJo 4 ((as a defensive stopper)

With the way the cap is going they can spend an extra 10-14 mil on building what could be the best defensive group in the league.

Take out the PP and Ed is outscoring Mo 20 to 16.

 

[FissionFire]

Just to give you an idea why I think Simon signing below Seider is wishful thinking, if projections for the cap over the next 3 years hold true then in 3 years Seider’s 8.55M cap today would be the equivalent of 11M in 3 years.

I think people underestimate just how much the cap is exploding and how much contracts will skyrocket as a result. Every single team will have cap space to sign big UFAs or make big offer sheets.

 

[Chris Langlois]

Take out the PP and Ed is outscoring Mo 20 to 16.

This. Honestly that's the one thing about coach Todd that bothers me. Not using ed on the pp over gustufson. Ed clearly has lots of skill to help improve the 2nd pp unit. Long term i think ed would be more effective than seider on the pp (ASP will be 1st pp).

 

[FissionFire]

I’d rather Ed play more minutes ES than Gus, especially when the PP is doing fine already.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Take out the PP and Ed is outscoring Mo 20 to 16.

Mo is also eating the harder matchups.

 

[cvaicunas]

He already Is a great partner for Ed.. in the middle of a heated playoff chase.. as a rookie.

I don't think it's really even debatable that he couldn't *eventually* be a great partner for Mo on the 1st pair. Hell, he could probably be Mo's partner tomorrow (on his natural side, with a better partner) and be even better than he is w Ed.

...

As far as ASP goes, I think he'll be our #2 out of camp next yr. He may even get some games in Detroit this yr once his season's over.


He's more hyped than any defensive prospect we've had in the last 30yrs besides Seider. More hyped than Edvinsson even.

Don't make people read that name. Or Kindl. Or Cholowski.

Nothing's guaranteed...but come on...leave that at home.

Right, but then he is going to be seeing increased competition/role. If the Wings were at home I'm sure the team would have prioritized Seider being on the ice against Mcdavid. The Oilers were actively seeking to get Mcdrai out there against our fourth and third lines. I noticed that happen at least 4 times the other night.

 

[ElProfessor]

This. Honestly that's the one thing about coach Todd that bothers me. Not using ed on the pp over gustufson. Ed clearly has lots of skill to help improve the 2nd pp unit. Long term i think ed would be more effective than seider on the pp (ASP will be 1st pp).

I'd like to see Johansson getting PP2 mins actually...he was a puck-moving machine on the PP in GR

Just to give you an idea why I think Simon signing below Seider is wishful thinking, if projections for the cap over the next 3 years hold true then in 3 years Seider’s 8.55M cap today would be the equivalent of 11M in 3 years.

I think people underestimate just how much the cap is exploding and how much contracts will skyrocket as a result. Every single team will have cap space to sign big UFAs or make big offer sheets.

Ed will sign for less AAV than Seider for the same reason Seider and Raymond signed for less AAV than Larkin. There is a system that our players and their agents respect.